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When Water Stops and Air Burns

Karachi's Transport Pollution, K-IV Failure, and the Making of a Heatwave Catastrophe A Comprehensive Research Report on Air Quality, Climate Change, and Governance Failure Author: Engineer Arshad H. Abbasi Independent Energy, Water & Climate Change Expert Preface by Imtiaz Gul, Executive Director, Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS)Edited by Engineer Musa Arshad Abbasi Published by: Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) Plot 14M, Ali Plaza, F-8 Markaz, Islamabad, 44000  |  Tel: (051) 8314801 www.crss.pk Report ID: CRSS-May 2026 AQ in Karachi  |  May 2026 Preface By Imtiaz Gul, Executive Director, Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Islamabad CRSS has always played a key role in disseminating rigorous, evidence-based reports on air quality — because the worst air quality is the mother of heatwaves and climate change. In particular, our earlier publication, The Dark Clouds of Pakistan: An Investigative Report on Air Pollution and Smog (2023), served as a reference document for policymakers, media, and civil society. The present report builds on that foundation, narrowing the focus to Karachi — Pakistan's largest metropolis and economic heart — while widening the analytical lens to cover two decades of data, denial, and deterioration. At CRSS, we understand that the relationship between poor air quality and climate change is not linear — it is a vicious cycle. Air pollution contains short-lived climate pollutants — such as black carbon and methane — as well as long-lived greenhouse gases. These substances trap heat, accelerate global warming, and alter weather patterns. In turn, higher temperatures intensify the photochemical formation of ground-level ozone, prolong smog episodes, and fuel more frequent and intense wildfires — all of which further degrade air quality. Karachi's summer heatwaves, amplified by transport-generated NOx and CO, are a textbook example of this deadly feedback loop. As of early 2026, according to the...

Pakistan’s Trade Recalibration and the Afghanistan Factor

Pakistan is steadily recalibrating its trade map by expanding connectivity with Central Asia and Iran while reducing reliance on Afghan transit routes. Although new corridors point to greater diversification and deeper regional integration, the shift also raises a strategic question about how to balance emerging opportunities with the stabilising value of continued economic engagement with Afghanistan.Pakistan has been actively reshaping its regional connectivity framework at a time when traditional transit routes through Afghanistan have become increasingly uncertain due to recurring border tensions and disruptions. Policy direction is clearly moving towards diversification, with a focus on reducing reliance on a single corridor while expanding access to multiple regional pathways.A key milestone in this shift was the arrival of the first Kyrgyz shipment in Karachi last Thursday. The cargo travelled through China via the Khunjerab Pass and Sost Dry Port, marking the operational opening of a new overland link between Central Asia and Pakistan’s southern ports. While limited in scale, the shipment is an effort to integrate Central Asian economies more directly with Pakistan’s maritime gateways.Under this emerging framework, Kyrgyzstan, along with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, is expected to gain more structured access to Karachi port. The objective is to provide landlocked states with a predictable alternative to Afghan transit routes and strengthen Pakistan’s position as a regional trade conduit.In parallel, Pakistan has formalised a significant policy shift through the Transit of Goods through Territory of Pakistan Order 2026. The order allows third country goods destined for Iran to transit through Pakistan and brings multiple routes, including Karachi, Gwadar and key western crossings such as Taftan and Nokundi under a regulated customs framework administered by the Federal Board of Revenue. This extends Pakistan’s transit footprint...

Afghan Women at Crossroads of Conflict: Understanding Gendered Impact of Pakistan–Afghanistan Escalation

By Elsa Imdad Chandio The cross-border escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan since late February 2026 has unfolded in a context in which Afghan women already live under some of the most restrictive conditions in the world. In this sense, the airstrikes, shelling, and cross-border clashes, which have affected at least ten provinces, do not introduce instability into an otherwise stable environment. Assessments by Afghanistan’s Operational Gender Coordination Group show that women and girls make up more than half of the nearly 90,000 people affected by the escalation. This alone illustrates the gendered nature of the crisis. A considerable number of communities now report that women are unable to reach health facilities. In others, access is dependent on a male guardian, or obstructed by the lack of female health workers. These constraints are not new, but increased insecurity has made them far more difficult to navigate. Daily routines have altered in visible ways. Women describe a shrinking of the physical spaces they can safely enter. Markets, water points, clinics, and even communal latrines in displacement sites are avoided due to fear of airstrikes, harassment or the unpredictable behaviour of armed personnel at checkpoints. In Kabul, many families now prevent women from leaving home entirely. Men have taken over tasks that women previously managed, not because roles are shifting, but because the risks have risen to such an extent that families are unwilling to expose women to them. As one woman explained: “We no longer feel safe going outside or continuing normal life.” Women without male relatives are facing the sharpest difficulties. Female-headed households, which are already among the most vulnerable in Afghanistan, encounter compounded barriers when attempting to secure aid, travel for medical care or obtain basic supplies. The requirement of a mahram, documentation checks and mobility restrictions intersect to limit even essential movement. In...

PAKISTAN SEES 18% DROP IN VIOLENCE IN Q1 2026, AS SECURITY OPERATIONS GROW DEADLIER

CRSS Security Report – Q1 2026 During the first quarter of 2026, Pakistan recorded a nearly 18% quarter-on-quarter decline in violence related to terrorism and counter-terrorism, along with a mix of promising and concerning trends in the country’s security landscape. The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) tallied as many as 813 violence-linked fatalities and 518 injuries - among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws - across at least 248 incidents involving both terrorist attacks and the state’s counter-terrorism operations. In terms of comparative impact, the reported drop in violence between Q4, 2025 to Q1, 2026 (from 990 to 813 deaths) was largely driven by the sharp reduction in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which recorded over 57% less fatalities compared to the last quarter i.e. 311 vs 727. However, this aggregate decline masks a significant deterioration in other parts of the country. For instance, the Balochistan province saw over 104% percent surge in violence, with fatalities jumping from 217 to 443 – marking the highest toll in the last thirteen years. The Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) saw a 185 percent surge (13 to 37), driven largely by a suicide attack at a Shiite Mosque on February 6 that marked the capital's deadliest incident since 2008. Punjab, while starting from a low base, recorded a 367 percent rise (3 to 14), signalling a concerning expansion of violence into the country's most populous province. The data indicate that while TTP-driven violence in KP is receding, it is being offset by rising lethality in Balochistan, with concerning early signs of spillover into Punjab and the capital. In terms of regional impact, both KP and Balochistan were the epicentres of violence, jointly accounting for almost 93% of all violence-linked fatalities, with over 38% (311) recorded in the former and almost 55% (443) in the latter province, marking it the most fatally hit region during the period under review. However, the trend...

Pakistan’s Strategic Shield Against Global Energy and Fertilizer Shocks

By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi and Engineer Musa Arshad Pakistan’s sugar industry holds an overlooked solution to rising energy and fertilizer shocks. By scaling ethanol blending and using press mud as organic fertilizer, the country can cut imports, boost resilience, and turn a recurring sugar surplus into a strategic national asset. As global energy markets grow increasingly volatile, Pakistan finds itself dangerously exposed. With most of its crude oil and fertilizer imports tied to the Middle East, geopolitical instability is no longer a distant concern—it is an immediate economic threat. Against this backdrop, a compelling opportunity lies within the country’s own borders: the sugar industry. The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA) on 29th March 2026 urged the government to allow the export of surplus sugar and move toward deregulation, citing heavy financial losses despite a bumper production year. But beyond export policy lies a far more strategic question: can Pakistan transform its sugar surplus into a pillar of energy security and agricultural resilience? The answer lies in ethanol and the broader ecosystem of byproducts that the sugar industry already produces. Sugar mills in Pakistan primarily produce refined sugar from sugarcane while simultaneously processing the byproduct, molasses, to produce high-value ethanol for export. In Pakistan, ethanol is primarily known as a biofuel or ethanol within the energy sector, specifically regarding E10/E20 petrol blending. In industrial and chemical contexts, it is referred to as rectified spirit or alcohol, while in the beverage industry, it is the core component of IMFL (Indian-made foreign liquor). Regardless of the application, it is increasingly recognised as a sustainable, sugar-derived fuel valued for its cleaner-burning properties. Many sugarcane mills are vertically integrated with distilleries that convert this byproduct into ethanol, yielding significant export revenue, often exceeding US$300 million...

Pak-Afghan Trade Must Sustain Regardless of Tensions: Parliamentary Secretary for Commerce

Trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan must continue irrespective of challenges in other areas of bilateral relations, as sustained economic engagement can serve as a constructive lever to improve the overall relationship, said the Federal Parliamentary Secretary for Commerce, Dr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhatti during the Regional Economic Connectivity Dialogue on challenges and opportunities for cooperation in South and Central Asia, organized by Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) as part of its multitrack diplomacy initiative Beyond Boundaries. The dialogue brought together senior representatives from the business community and chambers of commerce across Pakistan, alongside policy experts, legislators, and officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and Pakistan Customs. The federal secretary for commerce further noted that trade should be viewed as a stabilizing force and a shared stake that encourages cooperation rather than discord. Highlighting the strategic importance of the region, he underscored that security and connectivity are critical for both countries, which serve as vital economic corridors for each other. Afghanistan provides Pakistan with access to Central Asia, while Pakistan offers Afghanistan a gateway to international markets and maritime routes. This interdependence, he stressed, must be leveraged to promote mutual prosperity. He further acknowledged the difficulties faced by the business community due to ongoing tensions and security-related disruptions, and called for targeted policy relief to ease their burden and sustain economic activity. In this regard, he stressed the need for pragmatic and business-friendly measures that can help restore confidence among traders and investors. Reaffirming the Ministry of Commerce’s commitment, he offered to convene meetings to deliberate on the proposals submitted, including those put forward by CRSS. He assured participants that he would facilitate engagement with relevant government...

Strategic Role of Ethanol Blending and Sugar Industry Byproducts in Addressing Pakistan’s Energy and Fertilizer Crisis

At a time of rising fuel import dependence and fertilizer supply uncertainty, this policy letter by engineers Arshad Abbasi and Musa Abbasi highlights how Pakistan’s sugar industry can play a transformative role in strengthening national energy and agricultural security. By leveraging ethanol blending (E10–E20) and utilizing press mud as organic fertilizer, the proposal presents a practical, immediately implementable pathway to reduce foreign exchange pressures, improve fuel quality, enhance soil health, and build long-term economic resilience through domestic resources. To: His Excellency Asif Ali Zardari President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan Respected Mr. President, We write to draw your attention to an urgent and strategic opportunity for Pakistan at a time when global energy markets are increasingly volatile and the country faces heightened vulnerability due to its dependence on imported fuel and fertilizers. The recent geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region and the resulting disruptions in oil and gas supplies, have reinforced the need for immediate, forward-looking policy interventions to safeguard Pakistan’s energy and agricultural security. In this context, the role of the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association and the broader sugar industry assumes critical importance. On 29th March 2026, PSMA urged the government to allow the export of surplus sugar and move toward deregulation, highlighting the financial strain faced by millers despite a bumper production year. However, beyond the immediate issue of exports lies a far more significant opportunity: the transformation of Pakistan’s sugar sector into a cornerstone of energy resilience and agricultural sustainability. Sugar mills in Pakistan primarily produce refined sugar from sugarcane while simultaneously processing molasses, a byproduct, into high-value ethanol for export. In the domestic context, ethanol is increasingly recognised as a clean-burning biofuel suitable for blending with petrol...

Iran Will Not Lose The War

By Sohaib Syed Around 3 weeks into the war with Iran, the United States seems to have settled on four primary objectives: (1) destroying Iran’s navy; (2) destroying Iran’s missile capabilities; (3) preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons; and (4) preventing Iran from supporting proxy groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen. Administration officials—notably President Trump in his initial remarks regarding the war—have hinted that regime change is also among their goals, but have consistently excluded this message in recent days. I give you a perspective that is distinct because it moves away from traditional Western-centric military metrics like air superiority or raw firepower and focuses on the geopolitical shift toward 21st-century warfare, specifically the domains of space, electronic warfare, and “system survival.” West is misjudging the nature of the conflict. For the United States and Israel, this is a war of choice, a political decision to seek regime change or regional dominance. For Iran, however, it is a war of survival. the primary reason for Iran’s confidence is the nature of the conflict itself. For Iran, which finds itself pitted against a global superpower like America, this is a war of survival rather than a war of choice. the definition of victory is simplified: if Iran can emerge with its sovereignty and territorial integrity intact, it has won. As a 5,000-year-old civilization, Iran is not a mere “artificial construct”; like many of the kingdoms and sheikhdoms in the Middle East, it is a nation-state with a deep-rooted identity that stands by itself. This civilizational resilience provides a baseline of resistance that the West continually underestimates. Iran meticulously learned the lessons from the 12-day war that occurred last year, leading to a massive organizational restructuring of its military framework. Central to this shift was the implementation of decentralized command and control. While critics argue...

One Price, Unequal Burden: Rethinking Fuel Pricing in Pakistan

Engineer Arshad H Abbasi Why should a labourer on a motorbike pay the same fuel price as the owner of a Toyota Land Cruiser 300? This piece exposes the hidden injustice in Pakistan’s fuel pricing system and makes the case for technology-led reform that protects the poor while holding luxury consumption accountable. Injustice often hides in ordinary policies. It rarely announces itself with loud slogans or dramatic speeches. Instead, it quietly settles into systems that people accept as normal. Pakistan’s fuel pricing structure is one such example. The same price per liter of petrol or diesel applies whether a citizen rides a small motorbike worth Rs 20,000 or drives a luxury vehicle such as the Toyota Land Cruiser 300 worth nearly Rs 9.40 crore. On paper, this flat-rate pricing appears simple. In reality, it creates a system that treats necessity and luxury as if they were identical. Fuel is not merely another commodity for most Pakistanis. It is a basic economic input that keeps daily life moving. Farmers rely on tractors to cultivate crops. Rickshaws and small transport vehicles provide affordable mobility in crowded cities. Buses carry thousands of workers who cannot afford private cars. Motorbikes allow students, shopkeepers, and laborers to travel long distances to work. When these essential vehicles pay the same fuel price as luxury automobiles such as the BMW X5, the BMW iX1, or high-end cars produced by Mercedes-Benz, the policy stops being neutral. It quietly transfers economic pressure onto those with the least capacity to absorb it. My understanding of this problem grew through years of personal interaction with Pakistan’s fuel regulator, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority. What began as a technical curiosity gradually became a sobering lesson about how institutional resistance can prevent necessary reform. My journey began in 1996 when I owned a vehicle manufacturing company. I spent much of my time experimenting with engines and mechanical systems....

Gwadar: A Decade of Unfulfilled Promises

By Imtiaz Gul and Shahana Naseer Introduction: Vision, Investment, and the Question of Credibility Gwadar occupies a strategically significant geographic position at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and western China. Its deep-sea port and associated infrastructure projects form a central component of Pakistan’s long-term economic vision, particularly within the framework of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)[1]. Gwadar is often described as the “jewel in CPEC’s crown.” Over the past decade, Gwadar has hosted numerous high-profile conferences, investment forums, and development exhibitions designed to showcase its potential as a regional trade and logistics hub. One such event was the investment expo titled “Pathways to a Modern Coastal City,[2]” organized by provincial authorities in January 2026. While such events aim to attract investors and tourists, they raise two critical policy questions: What tangible outcomes have these high-profile gatherings produced for local stakeholders? To what extent do conference narratives align with Gwadar’s socioeconomic realities? These questions are not merely academic. They lie at the heart of investor confidence, social stability, and the long-term credibility of development policy. In strategically sensitive and economically fragile regions, development cannot be sustained through rhetoric alone. It must be grounded in functional infrastructure, institutional credibility, local participation, and operational security. This paper examines Gwadar through several interconnected dimensions: the effectiveness of investment conferences, local grievances—particularly within the fisheries sector—socioeconomic conditions, perspectives of Chinese investors, official representations of Gwadar’s investment climate, and the structural feasibility of attracting sustained investment. Do High-Profile Events Produce Tangible Outcomes? Investment forums and development expos serve an important...

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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar