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Socioeconomic Considerations Must Define Pakistan-Afghanistan Ties, Conflict is the Natural Course: Experts
Pakistan and Afghanistan must move beyond a predominantly security-driven paradigm and instead cultivate their relationship in sustained dialogue, socioeconomic cooperation, and pragmatic regional engagement to prevent bilateral tensions from hardening into prolonged hostility, speakers said at a roundtable titled “Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations: What Next? Towards Pragmatic Policy Pathways in a Shifting Regional Order”, convened by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Bringing together experts and former officials from Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, and Uzbekistan, the discussion examined the persistent trust deficit, the TTP challenge, border closures, trade disruptions, and the wider implications of strained Pakistan-Afghanistan relations for regional connectivity. Participants acknowledged Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns but cautioned that prolonged border restrictions, reactive policies, and an excessive focus on government-to-government engagement risked deepening economic hardship, humanitarian suffering, and political estrangement. The speakers called for a calibrated policy framework that combines verifiable action against cross-border militancy with continued trade, people-to-people contact, Track 2 engagement, and greater involvement of regional and multilateral institutions. They stressed that geography made sustained engagement unavoidable and that economic interdependence should serve as the foundation for a more stable and functional relationship. Maj. Gen. (R) Inam Ul Haque argued that Pakistan-Afghanistan relations have been viewed too narrowly through a government-to-government lens, while it primarily needs to be seen through business-to-business and people-to-people ties - that bind the two countries - as the paradigm of engagement. He stressed that conflict is not the natural course of bilateral relations and called for socioeconomic considerations to take precedence over geopolitical calculations. However, he cautioned...
PAKISTAN RECORDS DOWNTICK IN VIOLENCE, BUT KP FATALITIES SURGE 53%
CRSS Security Report | Q2 2026 Overall Tally During the second quarter of 2026, the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) tallied as high as 774 violence-linked fatalities and 336 injuries in Pakistan - among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws - across at least 267 incidents involving both terrorist attacks and the state’s counter-terrorism operations. Regional Impact In terms of regional impact, both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan were the epicentres of violence, with the former recorded as the worst hit region during the period under review. Jointly, they accounted for almost 96% of all violence-linked fatalities, with over 61% (475) recorded in the former and 34% (265) in the latter province. KP also suffered the highest number of violent incidents in Q2, 2026, i.e. 151 (57%), followed by Balochistan with 94 (35% of all incidents of violence). Moreover, KP also suffered the majority of violence-linked injuries, i.e. 180, followed by Balochistan with 99. Comparative Impact In terms of comparative impact, the country recorded around 05% marginal yet encouraging quarter-on-quarter decline in violence related to terrorism and counter-terrorism, continuing the trend of declining violence reported by CRSS for the first quarter of the year. The reported drop in violence between Q1 to Q2, 2026 (from 813 to 774 deaths) was largely driven by the sharp reduction in Balochistan province, which recorded over 40% less fatalities compared to the last quarter, i.e. 265 vs 443. 60% of all incidents took place in five districts of Balochistan; Quetta, Chagai, Washuk, Kech and Gwadar. However, this aggregate decline masks a significant deterioration in other parts of the country. For instance, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province suffered almost 53% percent surge in violence - with fatalities jumping from 311 to 475, and 63% of all incidents recorded in Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Kurram, and Bajaur districts. Slight fatal escalations were recorded in Sindh and...
China’s Rise and Pakistan’s Future: Lessons from a Nation that Turned Vision into Reality
No country in recent history has achieved the scale of economic, technological and social transformation witnessed in China. Over the past four decades, China has emerged from a developing economy into a global leader in technology, innovation, education, infrastructure and human development. Today, China is not only leading the region economically but is also shaping global trends in trade, manufacturing, technology and investment. What makes China’s development journey remarkable is not merely the scale of its achievements but the consistency of its vision. The country has demonstrated how long-term planning, policy continuity and investment in people can produce extraordinary results. Across the nation, there is a clear focus on development, modernization and improving the quality of life of ordinary citizens. China’s rise as a technological powerhouse is particularly impressive. From artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing to electric vehicles, high-speed rail and digital payment systems, China has positioned itself at the forefront of innovation. Chinese companies are increasingly setting global standards in advanced technology and industrial production. The country’s commitment to research and development has enabled it to compete with the world’s leading economies in sectors that will define the future. An important factor behind this remarkable transformation has been the continuity of leadership and long-term vision. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has continued to pursue modernization, technological innovation, poverty alleviation and high-quality development with determination and consistency. His emphasis on long-term planning, human capital development, innovation and shared prosperity has helped China strengthen its position as a leading economic and technological power. During recent visits to Wuhan, Xiangyang and Beijing, the practical results of these policies were visible everywhere. Modern industrial facilities, smart...
From Indus Vision to Institutional Failure: The Rise and Decline of Pakistan’s Water Legacy
Engineer Arshad H Abbasi and Imtiaz Gul Born from one of the world's most successful examples of international water diplomacy, the Indus Waters Treaty enabled the construction of the infrastructure that powered Pakistan's economic rise. As debates over the treaty intensify, this article explores both the extraordinary achievements of the Indus Basin Project and the costly erosion of the vision that once transformed Pakistan's future. In 1951, Eugene Robert Black, President of the World Bank, looked at the newly partitioned subcontinent and saw not a territorial dispute but an engineering problem — and an opportunity. The Indus River system, the lifeblood of South Asia's most productive agricultural plain, had been severed at Partition like a vital artery. India controlled the headworks. Pakistan depended on the flows. The standoff was inching toward war. Inspired by a bold proposal from American engineer David Lilienthal — the architect of the Tennessee Valley Authority — Black mediated across nine painstaking years of diplomacy. The result was the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. It remains, to this day, the most durable water-sharing agreement in human history — surviving three wars, nuclear standoffs, and sixty-five years of enmity. What followed was not merely a legal settlement. It was the economic birth of modern Pakistan. Under the Indus Basin Development Fund Agreement, an international coalition mobilized USD 566 million in external funding: the United States contributing USD 247 million, Germany USD 126 million as an outright grant, the World Bank an USD 80 million loan, Canada USD 22.1 million, the United Kingdom USD 20.86 million, Australia USD 6.97 million, New Zealand USD 1 million — and India USD 62.06 million. The World Bank did not write a check and walk away. It supervised the design and execution of one of the most complex hydraulic programs in history: two storage dams, six barrages, eight inter-river link canals, drainage networks, roads, and...
When Water Stops and Air Burns
Karachi's Transport Pollution, K-IV Failure, and the Making of a Heatwave Catastrophe A Comprehensive Research Report on Air Quality, Climate Change, and Governance Failure Author: Engineer Arshad H. Abbasi Independent Energy, Water & Climate Change Expert Preface by Imtiaz Gul, Executive Director, Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS)Edited by Engineer Musa Arshad Abbasi Published by: Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) Plot 14M, Ali Plaza, F-8 Markaz, Islamabad, 44000 | Tel: (051) 8314801 www.crss.pk Report ID: CRSS-May 2026 AQ in Karachi | May 2026 Preface By Imtiaz Gul, Executive Director, Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Islamabad CRSS has always played a key role in disseminating rigorous, evidence-based reports on air quality — because the worst air quality is the mother of heatwaves and climate change. In particular, our earlier publication, The Dark Clouds of Pakistan: An Investigative Report on Air Pollution and Smog (2023), served as a reference document for policymakers, media, and civil society. The present report builds on that foundation, narrowing the focus to Karachi — Pakistan's largest metropolis and economic heart — while widening the analytical lens to cover two decades of data, denial, and deterioration. At CRSS, we understand that the relationship between poor air quality and climate change is not linear — it is a vicious cycle. Air pollution contains short-lived climate pollutants — such as black carbon and methane — as well as long-lived greenhouse gases. These substances trap heat, accelerate global warming, and alter weather patterns. In turn, higher temperatures intensify the photochemical formation of ground-level ozone, prolong smog episodes, and fuel more frequent and intense wildfires — all of which further degrade air quality. Karachi's summer heatwaves, amplified by transport-generated NOx and CO, are a textbook example of this deadly feedback loop. As of early 2026, according to the...
Pakistan’s Trade Recalibration and the Afghanistan Factor
Pakistan is steadily recalibrating its trade map by expanding connectivity with Central Asia and Iran while reducing reliance on Afghan transit routes. Although new corridors point to greater diversification and deeper regional integration, the shift also raises a strategic question about how to balance emerging opportunities with the stabilising value of continued economic engagement with Afghanistan.Pakistan has been actively reshaping its regional connectivity framework at a time when traditional transit routes through Afghanistan have become increasingly uncertain due to recurring border tensions and disruptions. Policy direction is clearly moving towards diversification, with a focus on reducing reliance on a single corridor while expanding access to multiple regional pathways.A key milestone in this shift was the arrival of the first Kyrgyz shipment in Karachi last Thursday. The cargo travelled through China via the Khunjerab Pass and Sost Dry Port, marking the operational opening of a new overland link between Central Asia and Pakistan’s southern ports. While limited in scale, the shipment is an effort to integrate Central Asian economies more directly with Pakistan’s maritime gateways.Under this emerging framework, Kyrgyzstan, along with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, is expected to gain more structured access to Karachi port. The objective is to provide landlocked states with a predictable alternative to Afghan transit routes and strengthen Pakistan’s position as a regional trade conduit.In parallel, Pakistan has formalised a significant policy shift through the Transit of Goods through Territory of Pakistan Order 2026. The order allows third country goods destined for Iran to transit through Pakistan and brings multiple routes, including Karachi, Gwadar and key western crossings such as Taftan and Nokundi under a regulated customs framework administered by the Federal Board of Revenue. This extends Pakistan’s transit footprint...
Afghan Women at Crossroads of Conflict: Understanding Gendered Impact of Pakistan–Afghanistan Escalation
By Elsa Imdad Chandio The cross-border escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan since late February 2026 has unfolded in a context in which Afghan women already live under some of the most restrictive conditions in the world. In this sense, the airstrikes, shelling, and cross-border clashes, which have affected at least ten provinces, do not introduce instability into an otherwise stable environment. Assessments by Afghanistan’s Operational Gender Coordination Group show that women and girls make up more than half of the nearly 90,000 people affected by the escalation. This alone illustrates the gendered nature of the crisis. A considerable number of communities now report that women are unable to reach health facilities. In others, access is dependent on a male guardian, or obstructed by the lack of female health workers. These constraints are not new, but increased insecurity has made them far more difficult to navigate. Daily routines have altered in visible ways. Women describe a shrinking of the physical spaces they can safely enter. Markets, water points, clinics, and even communal latrines in displacement sites are avoided due to fear of airstrikes, harassment or the unpredictable behaviour of armed personnel at checkpoints. In Kabul, many families now prevent women from leaving home entirely. Men have taken over tasks that women previously managed, not because roles are shifting, but because the risks have risen to such an extent that families are unwilling to expose women to them. As one woman explained: “We no longer feel safe going outside or continuing normal life.” Women without male relatives are facing the sharpest difficulties. Female-headed households, which are already among the most vulnerable in Afghanistan, encounter compounded barriers when attempting to secure aid, travel for medical care or obtain basic supplies. The requirement of a mahram, documentation checks and mobility restrictions intersect to limit even essential movement. In...
PAKISTAN SEES 18% DROP IN VIOLENCE IN Q1 2026, AS SECURITY OPERATIONS GROW DEADLIER
CRSS Security Report – Q1 2026 During the first quarter of 2026, Pakistan recorded a nearly 18% quarter-on-quarter decline in violence related to terrorism and counter-terrorism, along with a mix of promising and concerning trends in the country’s security landscape. The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) tallied as many as 813 violence-linked fatalities and 518 injuries - among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws - across at least 248 incidents involving both terrorist attacks and the state’s counter-terrorism operations. In terms of comparative impact, the reported drop in violence between Q4, 2025 to Q1, 2026 (from 990 to 813 deaths) was largely driven by the sharp reduction in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which recorded over 57% less fatalities compared to the last quarter i.e. 311 vs 727. However, this aggregate decline masks a significant deterioration in other parts of the country. For instance, the Balochistan province saw over 104% percent surge in violence, with fatalities jumping from 217 to 443 – marking the highest toll in the last thirteen years. The Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) saw a 185 percent surge (13 to 37), driven largely by a suicide attack at a Shiite Mosque on February 6 that marked the capital's deadliest incident since 2008. Punjab, while starting from a low base, recorded a 367 percent rise (3 to 14), signalling a concerning expansion of violence into the country's most populous province. The data indicate that while TTP-driven violence in KP is receding, it is being offset by rising lethality in Balochistan, with concerning early signs of spillover into Punjab and the capital. In terms of regional impact, both KP and Balochistan were the epicentres of violence, jointly accounting for almost 93% of all violence-linked fatalities, with over 38% (311) recorded in the former and almost 55% (443) in the latter province, marking it the most fatally hit region during the period under review. However, the trend...
Pakistan’s Strategic Shield Against Global Energy and Fertilizer Shocks
By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi and Engineer Musa Arshad Pakistan’s sugar industry holds an overlooked solution to rising energy and fertilizer shocks. By scaling ethanol blending and using press mud as organic fertilizer, the country can cut imports, boost resilience, and turn a recurring sugar surplus into a strategic national asset. As global energy markets grow increasingly volatile, Pakistan finds itself dangerously exposed. With most of its crude oil and fertilizer imports tied to the Middle East, geopolitical instability is no longer a distant concern—it is an immediate economic threat. Against this backdrop, a compelling opportunity lies within the country’s own borders: the sugar industry. The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA) on 29th March 2026 urged the government to allow the export of surplus sugar and move toward deregulation, citing heavy financial losses despite a bumper production year. But beyond export policy lies a far more strategic question: can Pakistan transform its sugar surplus into a pillar of energy security and agricultural resilience? The answer lies in ethanol and the broader ecosystem of byproducts that the sugar industry already produces. Sugar mills in Pakistan primarily produce refined sugar from sugarcane while simultaneously processing the byproduct, molasses, to produce high-value ethanol for export. In Pakistan, ethanol is primarily known as a biofuel or ethanol within the energy sector, specifically regarding E10/E20 petrol blending. In industrial and chemical contexts, it is referred to as rectified spirit or alcohol, while in the beverage industry, it is the core component of IMFL (Indian-made foreign liquor). Regardless of the application, it is increasingly recognised as a sustainable, sugar-derived fuel valued for its cleaner-burning properties. Many sugarcane mills are vertically integrated with distilleries that convert this byproduct into ethanol, yielding significant export revenue, often exceeding US$300 million...
Pak-Afghan Trade Must Sustain Regardless of Tensions: Parliamentary Secretary for Commerce
Trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan must continue irrespective of challenges in other areas of bilateral relations, as sustained economic engagement can serve as a constructive lever to improve the overall relationship, said the Federal Parliamentary Secretary for Commerce, Dr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhatti during the Regional Economic Connectivity Dialogue on challenges and opportunities for cooperation in South and Central Asia, organized by Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) as part of its multitrack diplomacy initiative Beyond Boundaries. The dialogue brought together senior representatives from the business community and chambers of commerce across Pakistan, alongside policy experts, legislators, and officials from the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and Pakistan Customs. The federal secretary for commerce further noted that trade should be viewed as a stabilizing force and a shared stake that encourages cooperation rather than discord. Highlighting the strategic importance of the region, he underscored that security and connectivity are critical for both countries, which serve as vital economic corridors for each other. Afghanistan provides Pakistan with access to Central Asia, while Pakistan offers Afghanistan a gateway to international markets and maritime routes. This interdependence, he stressed, must be leveraged to promote mutual prosperity. He further acknowledged the difficulties faced by the business community due to ongoing tensions and security-related disruptions, and called for targeted policy relief to ease their burden and sustain economic activity. In this regard, he stressed the need for pragmatic and business-friendly measures that can help restore confidence among traders and investors. Reaffirming the Ministry of Commerce’s commitment, he offered to convene meetings to deliberate on the proposals submitted, including those put forward by CRSS. He assured participants that he would facilitate engagement with relevant government...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.