By Sohaib Syed

Around 3 weeks into the war with Iran, the United States seems to have settled on four primary objectives: (1) destroying Iran’s navy; (2) destroying Iran’s missile capabilities; (3) preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons; and (4) preventing Iran from supporting proxy groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen. Administration officials—notably President Trump in his initial remarks regarding the war—have hinted that regime change is also among their goals, but have consistently excluded this message in recent days.

I give you a perspective that is distinct because it moves away from traditional Western-centric military metrics like air superiority or raw firepower and focuses on the geopolitical shift toward 21st-century warfare, specifically the domains of space, electronic warfare, and “system survival.”

West is misjudging the nature of the conflict. For the United States and Israel, this is a war of choice, a political decision to seek regime change or regional dominance. For Iran, however, it is a war of survival.

the primary reason for Iran’s confidence is the nature of the conflict itself. For Iran, which finds itself pitted against a global superpower like America, this is a war of survival rather than a war of choice. the definition of victory is simplified: if Iran can emerge with its sovereignty and territorial integrity intact, it has won.

As a 5,000-year-old civilization, Iran is not a mere “artificial construct”; like many of the kingdoms and sheikhdoms in the Middle East, it is a nation-state with a deep-rooted identity that stands by itself. This civilizational resilience provides a baseline of resistance that the West continually underestimates.

Iran meticulously learned the lessons from the 12-day war that occurred last year, leading to a massive organizational restructuring of its military framework. Central to this shift was the implementation of decentralized command and control. While critics argue that the killing of senior leaders like the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by US and Israeli forces would leave Iran leaderless, this logic does not apply to a war of survival.

In a war of choice, a “unity of command” is necessary to direct offensive operations. However, in a defensive war for existence, Iran has prioritized a “unity of effort.” This means that coordination amongst commanders, regardless of their specific rank or the status of a central headquarters, allows the resistance to continue autonomously across the country. By killing the Supreme Leader, the U.S. inadvertently handed Iran a cake on a platter. It transformed a political figure into a martyr, unifying the Shia and Sunni Ummah against a common “aggressor.”

This shift in regional sentiment is best exemplified by the reactions in Bahrain, home to the American Fifth Fleet naval headquarters. chilling reality that while Iranian bombs were falling on Bahraini soil, the local population was rejoicing. This disconnect between the ruling monarchs and their people suggests that the internal stability of American allies in the region is fracturing.

Consequently, Iran’s war objectives have expanded. They are no longer merely looking to survive; they are now seeking the total expulsion of American and Western forces from the Middle East. This “objective plus” strategy is supported by their control over vital maritime chokepoints. Currently, reports indicate that the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have become no-go zones for any tankers other than those belonging to China and Russia, some exceptions for Bangladesh etc , With oil prices soaring and global markets in a state of speculation, Iran has demonstrated that it holds the lever over the world’s energy security.

The military reality on the ground further complicates the Western position, as Israel has increasingly become a military liability for the United States.

Israel’s military capabilities are often overplayed and that the reality of their limitations was exposed during last year’s conflict when they required American intervention to find an exit strategy.

With Russian S-400 systems, Chinese jammers (like the YLC-8C), and North Korean ballistic technology, the Western Indian Ocean has become a “kill zone” for the U.S. Navy. The shifting of the USS Abraham Lincoln to the central Indian Ocean is proof, “prestige of America” is now vulnerable to high-precision missiles.

The presence of Chinese and Russian naval exercises in the Sea of Oman, combined with Chinese infrastructure in Djibouti, forced the American nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to retreat from the Gulf of Oman to the central Indian Ocean. Despite Pentagon dismissals, Iranian ballistic missiles likely caused substantial damage to this symbol of American prestige, a reality that will only become clear once the “fog of war” diminishes.

Adding to the complexity is the role of Hezbollah. While some analysts suggested the group was neutralized, i think they are “down but not out.” With a crossing of their “red line,” the assassination of the Supreme Leader, Hezbollah has activated a second front in southern Lebanon. Even with their “legacy” missiles, which may not be state-of-the-art, they possess enough volume to force Israel to divert significant reserve forces.

This regionalization of the war has left Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE feeling vulnerable. Iranian drones and missiles have successfully struck American bases in these territories, leading to public admissions from regional ministers that they lack the necessary interceptors to defend themselves. The perception that the U.S. is diverting all defensive assets to protect Israel at the expense of its Arab allies has created a profound sense of abandonment among the regional kingdoms.

Perhaps the most significant factor in Iran’s resilience is the quiet but firm backing of China and Russia. China publicly declaring its commitment to Iran’s territorial integrity. This is not merely rhetorical; it is backed by a technological leap. By 2026, Iran had moved away from the

American GPS and integrated with China’s Beidou-3 (BDS-3) satellite system. This military-grade constellation provides millimeter-level accuracy and a unique “signal weapon” capability.

This system allows Iranian assets to mimic friendly signals on enemy radar, potentially explaining why Kuwaiti air defences mistakenly shot down American F-15s. This 21st-century warfare, relying on space capabilities, cyber, and electronic warfare, is a domain where the Chinese PLA currently holds an edge over the 20th-century conventional strength of the U.S. military.

Ultimately, the conflict highlights a massive gap in American strategy. While President Trump may seek regime change through “hubris and arrogance,” he is fighting a war of choice against a coalition that can out-produce the West in terms of military hardware. With North Korea offering ballistic missiles and China providing top-line drones like the WJ-700, Iran’s arsenal is deep enough to sustain a war of attrition for months. Americans have no clear strategy or grasp of the tactics required for a modern, multi-domain conflict. As the war progresses, it becomes increasingly evident that Iran will not only survive but will likely achieve its broader goals of reshaping the Middle Eastern security architecture, leaving India with many urgent lessons to learn about the changing nature of global power and technological warfare.

France’s involvement in the escalating Middle East conflict underscores the need for clearly defined military and political objectives, according to President Emmanuel Macron, who has emphasized the importance of balancing strategic interests with adherence to international law. As the Strait of Hormuz-through which 20%-25% of global oil and gas transit-faces disruptions, France has deployed its flagship aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, and Rafale fighter jets to the region to secure critical trade routes and defend allies in the Gulf according to Macron. These measures align with broader efforts to reinforce France’s strategic autonomy, a priority Macron has championed since 2017, while navigating complex economic dependencies on Middle East energy supplies as France recalls.

Macron has criticized the U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran as “outside international law” but has also acknowledged Iran’s destabilizing role, including its nuclear program and support for regional armed groups

There are mild contractions in the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan, while the US nears a temporary standstill and layoffs push up the unemployment rate, leaving it close to a recession. World CPI inflation would spike, peaking at 5.8%.

Written by SYED sohaib

Is a business consultant based in Paris and also worked in finance as a corporate financial analyst in Deloitte after his MBA from Ecole superior de gestion paris in 1999-2001

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS).