Current Projects
Rebuilding Relations With Afghanistan
There is today far less attention by the US on Afghanistan as its focus has shifted primarily towards the civil war in Syria and Iraq. The growing threat of the IS in the Middle East, Russia’s more aggressive posture in Europe and China’s growing assertiveness in Southeast Asia are being accorded high priority relegating Afghanistan to a secondary position. Then there is a sort of fatigue about Afghanistan as the war is going nowhere nor its end seems in sight. Infighting between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah has been very demoralising for the Afghans and is another reason for US frustrations. War in Afghanistan is not a serious issue during the current presidential campaign either. Trump has been more emphatic as he wants US troops to be withdrawn and Afghanistan left to its fate. Hillary, too, would like the Afghans to take greater responsibility for their security and a less active role for the US. The fate of funding for the war although committed by Nato allies and the US until 2020 cannot be taken for granted. In this scenario the US finds it convenient that India plays a major role in Afghanistan and also protect its interests. Exploiting on these weaknesses the Taliban in the last one year have captured large parts of territory in east and south Afghanistan and have been attacking bases in north as far as Kunduz. In these uncertain circumstances, Pakistan has taken the right step of strengthening border management. After all as a sovereign country it has to protect its interest. It would be advisable if Afghanistan takes reciprocal steps to strengthen its borders rather than raise unwarranted objections by promoting the issue of Durand line. The view held in certain quarters in Afghanistan that Pakistan’s border fortification was a reaction to the Chabahar agreement — signed between India, Iran and Afghanistan, is far-fetched. The real aim of Pakistan as stated clearly by the COAS is to improve security on both sides of the...
Afghanistan Stands to Gain from CPEC Option
The United States has spent billions of dollars in Afghanistan to cushion the sinking ship of the landlocked country’s economy, but there are no visible signs of improvement. An immediate workable solution for Afghanistan to boost its economy is forging better relations with Pakistan. Instead Kabul has resorted to blame game, holding Pakistan responsible for almost all recent terrorist attacks in its territory. According to a report published by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (Sigar), created by the US Congress for an independent oversight of Afghan reconstruction projects, multibillion-dollar American investment in Afghan economy was spent uselessly and not followed by any significant results as expected by the international society and the Afghan people. Though the US poured $113 billion into the Afghan economy from 2002 to 2015, the socio-economic situation in the country showed no signs of improvement and continued to worsen, it said. From a total of 44 projects sponsored by the US, only 20 were completed and received by Afghan officials. The report cited different problems for the failure including illicit and unprofessional planning of the programmes and baseless projects that had nothing to do with restoration of the Afghan economy, for instance, the Taliban reintegration support fund. It also pointed to the low efficiency of anti-drug projects on which billions of dollars were spent and stealing of huge amounts of money invested in the construction of schools and hospitals by local officials that mostly gave the projects to companies of their relatives. John Sopko, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction who reports to Congress on how US aid money has been spent, told Irin news agency that US-funded programmes were successful, but overall reconstruction had been characterised by mismanagement and waste. “Such a scattershot approach has led directly to the current economic crisis. While...
Shanghai Pact Anti-Terror Database Lists 2,500 Suicide Bombers,69 Groups
RATS SCO possesses data on 2,500 suicide bombers and 69 terrorist organizations, the first deputy director of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Tuesday. The Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (RATS SCO) possesses data on 2,500 suicide bombers and 69 terrorist organizations, the first deputy director of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Tuesday. Sergei Smirnov spoke at the 29th RATS SCO session in southern Kazakhstan. "Today we have a database of 2,500 suicide bombers and 69 organizations. We have initiated the idea of compiling a database and will decide on the formal establishment of the databank at the next [RATS] session," Smirnov said. He noted that despite the timely submission and exchange of information with the use of a comprehensive set of security services, the difficulty remains in locating suspects who change official residential registrations. This article originally appeared on www.sputniknews.com , September 13, 2016. Original link. Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.
Stern Bear, Rising Dragon: Russia & China Steadily Grow Defense Cooperation
The past month has seen a marked increase in cooperation between Russia and China on defense and national security issues. And while it's early to speak of a military alliance between the two countries, experts say that as long as the dangers posed by terrorism and US-led unipolarity continue to grow, so too will Russian-Chinese cooperation. This week, Chinese and Russian naval forces began Joint Sea-2016, a massive eight-day series of war games in the South China Sea involving destroyers and other surface ships, submarines, fighters, shipborne helicopters, marines and armored personnel carriers and other amphibious vehicles. Commenting on the exercises, PolitRussia contributor Sviatoslav Knyazev suggested that it's no wonder that much of the international community has focused its attention on the drills, "given that China's neighbors are being actively pitted against Beijing" using sea-based territorial disputes. "The United States is providing demonstrative support for China's neighbors, actively trying to pull Southeast Asia into the its economic, political and military sphere of influence, using the 'divide and conquer' principle." Moreover, Knyazev noted, "the US military is treating the Chinese with open defiance on the open sea." "Against this background," the analyst suggested, "the training of the Russian and Chinese military in the vicinity of the disputed territories is very revealing," serving to demonstrate the growing extent of military cooperation between the two countries. "Their message however, differs fundamentally from that of the US." Speaking to Russian media ahead of the exercises, Vice Admiral Fedotenkov, commander of the Russian forces involved in the drills, emphasized that the Russian-Chinese cooperation "is not directed against anyone, and is intended to protect our mutual interests, to ensure security across the world's oceans. It's a good thing when two countries, two great powers, cooperate; this guarantees peace not only in the...
Stern Bear, Rising Dragon: Russia & China Steadily Grow Defense Cooperation
The past month has seen a marked increase in cooperation between Russia and China on defense and national security issues. And while it's early to speak of a military alliance between the two countries, experts say that as long as the dangers posed by terrorism and US-led unipolarity continue to grow, so too will Russian-Chinese cooperation. This week, Chinese and Russian naval forces began Joint Sea-2016, a massive eight-day series of war games in the South China Sea involving destroyers and other surface ships, submarines, fighters, shipborne helicopters, marines and armored personnel carriers and other amphibious vehicles. Commenting on the exercises, PolitRussia contributor Sviatoslav Knyazev suggested that it's no wonder that much of the international community has focused its attention on the drills, "given that China's neighbors are being actively pitted against Beijing" using sea-based territorial disputes. "The United States is providing demonstrative support for China's neighbors, actively trying to pull Southeast Asia into the its economic, political and military sphere of influence, using the 'divide and conquer' principle." Moreover, Knyazev noted, "the US military is treating the Chinese with open defiance on the open sea." "Against this background," the analyst suggested, "the training of the Russian and Chinese military in the vicinity of the disputed territories is very revealing," serving to demonstrate the growing extent of military cooperation between the two countries. "Their message however, differs fundamentally from that of the US." Speaking to Russian media ahead of the exercises, Vice Admiral Fedotenkov, commander of the Russian forces involved in the drills, emphasized that the Russian-Chinese cooperation "is not directed against anyone, and is intended to protect our mutual interests, to ensure security across the world's oceans. It's a good thing when two countries, two great powers, cooperate; this guarantees peace not only in the...
The American Withdrawal Woes
Afghanistan’s security situation to this day remains unstable despite the numerous efforts made by multiple stakeholders. The US is faced with a dilemma whether to fulfil President Obama's election promises of withdrawing its troops after 15 years long tour of duty and allow the country to be torn apart once again or stay back to oversee the process consolidate to a viable political order and continue to strive for political reconciliation amongst the competing groups i.e.; Ghani's government supported by a cartel of warlords on one hand and the Taliban on the other. A recent advice to this effect came via an article in the Foreign Affairs. Pointing to the US failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, the article quotes Astro Teller, CEO of Google’s X, as saying: Failure is “the point at which you know what you are working on is the wrong thing to be working on or that you are working on it in the wrong way. You can’t call the work up to [that] moment… ‘failing’—that’s called ‘learning.’ And once you frame it that way there’s this moment where if you stop now, if you course correct now, you can be shame-free. But if you keep going forward, the shame starts to build.[1] Nearly 15 years after a massive military intervention and financial infusion worth a trillion dollars Afghanistan remains a divided polity with no real political process. The country's security structure is fragile and the country is financially hugely dependent on foreign aid. The American troops were supposed to leave Afghanistan by 2017 but the way that things have been progressing its seems that they might be forced to stay for the indefinite future. The transition of power to the Afghan authorities have been anything but smooth as the Afghan Military still seems to be a work in progress. Past predictions about the Afghan forces readiness may have been far too optimistic and it doesn’t help that the Taliban are still going strong. As a part of current military plans, the United States will...
Daesh, Haqqanis and Sanctuaries
Abandoning a project in which the United States and its partners have invested 15 years, billions upon billions of dollars, and thousands of lives with no acceptable outcome in sight is harrowing. Although the United States’ engagement in Afghanistan has not resulted in many of the outcomes it might have preferred, the real failure would be maintaining the current course knowing that doing so is likely to only prolong ultimate defeat —This excerpt from a recent Foreign Affairs article by Andrew Shaver and Joshua Madrigal sums up the dilemma that the US today faces in Afghanistan. The authors quote Astro Teller, CEO of Google’s X, as saying: Failure is “the point at which you know what you are working on is the wrong thing to be working on or that you are working on it in the wrong way. You can’t call the work up to [that] moment… ‘failing’— that’s called ‘learning.’ And once you frame it that way there’s this moment where if you stop now, if you course correct now, you can be shame-free. But if you keep going forward, the shame starts to build.” Using Pentagon data, the authors point out that violence in Afghanistan following Obama’s 2009 troop surge has remained at levels vastly exceeding those observed during the initial years of the war. Meanwhile, measures of insurgent activity, from kidnappings to weapons sales, have remained at levels at or above those observed when the United States “surged” troops into the country. Not surprising that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) lost nearly 900 men during the month of July alone, a fact that the top US commander in Afghanistan General John Nicholson admitted in a public meeting late August. In a September 23 briefing at Pentagon, Nicholson gave a detailed account on the Daesh/IS in the region. He said some 20 of the 98 designated terrorist groups are in Af-Pak region, Daesh being among them. This group, he said comprised up to 1,300 “Pakistani Pashtoon fighters, mostly from the Orakzai agency, currently...
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Paper Tiger Or Sleeping Dragon?
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was once viewed as an Eastern counterbalance to NATO. In reality, the Eurasian political, economic and military alliance has no joint military forces, although its members do share intelligence and cooperate over border and customs issues. Founded in 2001, it is made up of China, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Last July, the SCO decided to admit India and Pakistan as full members. This means that when they join next year, the organisation will include half of the world’s population. Fabio Indeo, a specialist in Central Asian geopolitics and a research fellow at the Centre for Energy Governance and Security at Hanyang University in Seoul, looks at the implications for the organisation as it marks its 15th anniversary. IWPR: What are Russia’s and China’s main objectives concerning the SCO? Fabio Indeo: Russia appears to be most interested in security since anything happening in Central Asia and Afghanistan affects its own southern borders. Russia is also interested in China’s involvement in SCO since it represents a way to control Chinese potential military ambitions in the region. Furthermore, Uzbekistan’s membership in the SCO allows Russia to share a security forum with this strategic post-Soviet country, which left the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), the Russian-backed military bloc, in 2012. Going forward, China has historically conceived of SCO summits as an enlarged and privileged forum to develop bilateral economic relations with Central Asian countries, accepting that Russia can play the role of security provider through the CSTO. The recent deal with Uzbekistan to upgrade Chinese-Uzbek relations to the level of “comprehensive strategic relations” confirms this trend even further. One also needs to consider that since 2015 China has become Tashkent’s main trade partner, taking over Russia's traditional role. What is Uzbekistan’s interest in being a member of SCO? As far...
IS Retakes Control of Former Strongholds in Afghanistan
Officials and witnesses in Afghanistan say fighters linked to Islamic State have regained control of most of the militant group's former strongholds in the country, weeks after retreating to remote mountain hideouts in the face of major Afghan security operations. The troubled areas are located in Achin, Naziyan, Kot and Haska Meena districts of the eastern Nangarhar province, which borders Pakistan. A reporter for VOA’s Afghan service this week traveled to Achin, the main IS base in the country, and says government security forces have relocated to positions they were occupying prior to the launching of an anti-IS “Qahr-e- Sellab” offensive in June. Regional military spokesman Shreen Aqa confirmed to VOA that IS militants have returned to parts of the troubled districts, but said Afghan forces are preparing to undertake a fresh offensive for their eviction. Warning not heeded Tribal elders from the area have repeatedly warned IS was trying to return to its former bases and criticized Afghan authorities for not paying attention or establishing permanent security posts after concluding the previous operations. IS launched its regional operations early last year in about 10 districts of Nangarhar, but stiff resistance from the rival Taliban and repeated U.S. counterterrorism drone strikes confined them to three or four districts, according to officials. The operations in June and July were “very successful” because they eliminated IS regional chief, Hafiz Saeed Khan, along with 11 other top leaders and killed 25 percent of its fighters, General John Nicholson, the top U.S. military commander in the country, noted last week. “We estimate there numbers are 1,200 or 1,300 fighters. They have some enclaves in (neighboring) Kunar province, but primarily they are in Nangarhar province,” Nicholson told reporters on Friday. Primarily Pakistani ethnic Pashtun militants who were previously part of the anti-state Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan in the neighboring country...
Afghanistan Working With India to Create Joint Air Corridor to Enhance Bilateral Trade
Afghanistan is working with India to create a joint air corridor to enhance bilateral trade following Pakistan's intransigence in denying transit rights through its territory amid deteriorating ties with both the countries. Afghan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani has said he discussed the creation of a joint air trade route with India during his recent visit to the country, according to a statement from the presidential palace issued on Sunday. The issue was also discussed when Ghani met a World Bank delegation headed by its vice president Kyle Peters over the weekend in Kabul. The World Bank supported Kabul's quest for better regional connectivity, people familiar with the matter said. Besides a joint air trade route with India, the Afghanistan government is also focusing on creation of economic zones in airports. During his visit to Delhi earlier this month Ghani had set a target of $10 billion for bilateral trade and investment with India in five years, underlining the importance of a concrete road map for future collaboration. He marked out retail, power, pharmaceuticals, solar energy, water management, ports and skill development as areas that hold immense potential. "You spoke of a road map. Let us start with a target of $10 billion in trade and investment, five years and we are going to realise it," Ghani had said at a business meet in Delhi. Trade between India and Afghanistan amounted to $643 million in 2015-16. At the business meet Ghani had proposed formation of a task force between the industry chambers of the two countries and governments for laying a concrete road map for future collaboration. Stating that Afghanistan had invested over $30 million in its airports, Ghani proposed formation of a joint cargo company with India. He also spoke of Afghan fruits that can be made affordable for the middle class and low-income Indian households. Noting that the Kandahar airport has "first-grade cold storage capabilities", Ghani sought investment from...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.