Afghanistan’s security situation to this day remains unstable despite the numerous efforts made by multiple stakeholders. The US is faced with a dilemma whether to fulfil President Obama’s election promises of withdrawing its troops after 15 years long tour of duty and allow the country to be torn apart once again or stay back to oversee the process consolidate to a viable political order and continue to strive for political reconciliation amongst the competing groups i.e.; Ghani’s government supported by a cartel of warlords on one hand and the Taliban on the other.

A recent advice to this effect came via an article in the Foreign Affairs. Pointing to the US failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, the article quotes Astro Teller, CEO of Google’s X, as saying: Failure is “the point at which you know what you are working on is the wrong thing to be working on or that you are working on it in the wrong way. You can’t call the work up to [that] moment… ‘failing’—that’s called ‘learning.’ And once you frame it that way there’s this moment where if you stop now, if you course correct now, you can be shame-free. But if you keep going forward, the shame starts to build.[1]

Nearly 15 years after a massive military intervention and financial infusion worth a trillion dollars Afghanistan remains a divided polity with no real political process. The country’s security structure is fragile and the country is financially hugely dependent on foreign aid. The American troops were supposed to leave Afghanistan by 2017 but the way that things have been progressing its seems that they might be forced to stay for the indefinite future. The transition of power to the Afghan authorities have been anything but smooth as the Afghan Military still seems to be a work in progress. Past predictions about the Afghan forces readiness may have been far too optimistic and it doesn’t help that the Taliban are still going strong. As a part of current military plans, the United States will maintain bases across Afghanistan that will afford U.S. and NATO troops greater reach into contested areas along with military troops to keep the Afghan Government from imploding.

Although President Obama withdrew final American combat troops from Iraq at the end of 20, yet the country remains fragile both politically and economically. The emergence of the Islamic State as a potent force compelled Obama to send the soldiers back mostly to train the Iraqis and conduct air campaigns against ISIS. Fearing that the same could happen in Afghanistan Obama has extended the US military mission beyond 2017 and thus given a much needed respite to the Ghani-led National Unity government.

Following a peace deal with the Hezb-e Islami, Ghani would now hope to deal with only the Taliban and the Haqqanis. The latter, it seems, would like to maintain its independent stature in order to play on both sides. Even if aligned with the Taliban for the time being, they would like to maintain their fiefdom in the eastern Afghanistan and control the smuggling routes to and from Pakistan. The real challenge, however, is how to reconcile disparate factions of Taliban into one entity which can eventually talk peace with Kabul. The latter too is divided at the moment.

This situation requires a regional approach to bring more pressure on all Afghan stakeholders. The efforts for peace and an end to hostilities have so far, however, left out major regional stakeholders such as Russia and Iran. The experience so far tells us possible solution should take into account certain ground realities before embarking upon a reconciliatory effort.

Pakistan and Iran are major stakeholders in Afghanistan because of the long shared borders, millions of Afghan refugees on their soils, and the internal instability because of the cross-border movement of militants, complicated by the emergence of Daesh too. For Pakistan it is of the utmost importance that Afghanistan find its equilibrium because of the divided Pashtoon tribes on both sides. As far Iran, only Baloch are an ethnic group which reside in Iran (and Pakistan). However, Dari/Persian makes the common bond between Afghanistan and Iran as well as the latter’s influence with the former Northern Alliance makes it a substantive partner to play a role in the reconciliation process.

Afghanistan’s other neighbours although somewhat insulated despite common Tajik, Uzbek and Turkmen lineages, would be worried more from the Islamists then entertaining apprehensions about their blood brothers in Afghanistan.

If Afghanistan is pushed into the chaos of the 1990s, millions of refugees would again seek shelter in neighboring countries and overseas, horrifyingly intensifying the severe challenges already faced in Europe and beyond.[2]

Significantly, China is the only neighbour of Afghanistan which is comfortable geographically and does not share ethnic groups divided between the two countries. However, reports of Euigher rebels from Xinjiang province of China taking refuge in Afghanistan or making common causes with Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) while availing transit facilities in Afghanistan is of concern for China.

There is a paradox between the ground realities and the US approach in resolving the Afghan crisis. Or a benign view of the American policy on Afghanistan would find faults with the slow pace of American realization of addressing ground realities in Afghanistan. A couple of examples may highlight this paradox:

For almost a decade the US strongly opposed reconciliation with the Taliban only to concede at the London Conference on Afghanistan in 2010. It took the US and its allies almost the same period to separate the UN Security Council’s 1267 Al Qaeda-Taliban List in order to initiate a dialogue with the Taliban and allow their office in Qatar.

However almost half a decade has passed without a viable solution to the Afghan problem. The following factors for variety of reasons would be crucial for a reconciliation process to succeed in the coming weeks and months.

The Taliban even after the death of their leader have posed a potent force against the foreign forces who have been unsuccessful in containing sustained offensives against them. To them these numbers pose a far lesser threat that the Obama troops surge of a 100,000 troops in 2010.[3]

Taliban are a reality; despite best efforts to annihilate them, the group is still surviving although reports of fissures in their ranks after Mullah Omar and a faction of Taliban joining the ISIS/Daesh have dented the military prowess of the Taliban.

All major stakeholders will have to join hands to neutralize the growing ingress of the ISIS/Daesh inside Afghanistan. A serious effort would be needed by the neighbours of Afghanistan to find a durable solution of the problem without playing favourites.

The US will have to delink the solution of the Afghan problem with presidential campaigns and make it a bipartisan cause to end the sufferings of the Afghan people. Long term assurances for strengthening Afghanistan’s security and economy would be needed. In the absence of such guarantees, Afghan factions will have little stake in peace. They would be happy to continue with existing war economy which hinges on narcotics and other organised crimes.

Pakistan will have to give assurances on its neutrality. However, Pakistan’s concerns vis-à-vis India of playing a spoiler’s role in Afghanistan cannot be ignored and will have to addressed. Iran can play a positive role for the stability of Afghanistan provided the US stops playing with Iran after the removal of nuclear related UN sanctions. It will have to allow the banks and financial institutions to do business with Iran in accordance with the international conventions of business and engagement.

Ideally, Pakistan, Iran, China and Russia should take the lead in resolving the Afghan challenge and offer security and economic assurances to this unfortunate land which has seen nothing but death and destruction during the past four decades. Whether the troops stay or leave would not matter in the end if nobody in charge knows how to best use them. Finding the solution without the involvement of those most affected by the conflict would only let the stalemate fester into increased turmoil for the entire region. It is time that an actual remedy is applied to finally and sincerely cure the pain that this land has endured for so very long.

The author Mohsin Durrani is a Research Fellow at the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS).

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[1] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2016-09-22/losing-afghanistan

[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-alters-afghanistan-exit-plan-once-more/2016/07/06/466c54f2-4380-11e6-88d0-6adee48be8bc_story.html

[3] http://www.npr.org/2016/07/06/484979294/chart-how-the-u-s-troop-levels-in-afghanistan-have-changed-under-obama