Current Projects

Why was Pakistan the top-ranking country with Measles (a highly contagious viral disease in children) outbreak in 2024?

By Dr. Masood Joegezi The coverage for the Measles-Containing Vaccine (MCV-I) among children aged 9–12 months reached 84% in 2023, leaving approximately 1,056,000 children unvaccinated. Similarly, the MCV-II coverage for children aged 18 months to 5 years has remained constant in 2023 at 80%. These figures are concerning, especially given the highly contagious nature of measles, with a basic reproduction model for measles (R₀) of 12–18. This means each person with measles can, on average, infect 12–18 others in a susceptible population. Despite the availability of vaccines, measles outbreaks have led to hundreds of preventable child deaths, as reported in print and electronic media. However, Pakistan's Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) and the Department of Health (DoH) have shown reluctance to maintain a transparent record of measles-related mortality data. This lack of accountability hinders comprehensive policy-making and public health interventions. Vaccine-preventable disease deaths make up almost half of the deaths in children under five years in Pakistan, moreover, malnourished children are especially at risk of severe complications and deaths. Vaccine-preventable disease deaths remain a significant contributor to child mortality, accounting for nearly half of all deaths in children under five in Pakistan. Measles, in particular, is a deadly threat to malnourished children, who are at heightened risk of severe complications. Pneumonia, encephalitis, and croup (laryngotracheobronchitis) are the leading causes of measles-related mortality in children. Has the flood devastation of the year 2022 still shown an impact on the restoration of essential immunization services in the affected areas? However, few research papers have attributed to it. Furthermore, the staggering number of unvaccinated children, 40 million in 2020-raises critical questions about the Government of Pakistan and key stakeholders’ efforts to address these gaps. I am also certain that...

Connected future impossible without data-driven innovation, digital infrastructure and accessibility, warns Daniel Castro

The internet was initially seen as a tool that could revolutionize democracy by simply getting and connecting people online. While it alone doesn’t directly create democratic revolutions, it remains highly valuable to enhance access to information, foster free expression, and connect communities in ways that support democratic values. Artificial Intelligence (AI) should be viewed as a transformative tool, comparable in significance and value to the internet, for strengthening democracy. It provides innovative avenues for accessing and understanding information that matters to us, and the democratic values that we believe in and that need to be appreciated by making them more personalized, accessible, and interactive. AI-driven tools can simplify complex topics, help citizens engage with democratic processes, and promote informed decision-making. These capabilities can amplify the principles of democracy - transparency, inclusivity, and accountability - by empowering individuals with knowledge and enabling broader participation in governance. The notions were expressed by the vice president at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) and the director of ITIF's Center for Data Innovation, Mr. Daniel Castro during the round table discussion titled Empowering Democratic Governance through Technology/ AI and Media Freedom, organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Islamabad in collaboration with the Public Diplomacy Section of U.S. Embassy Islamabad. Castro noted that it is very important to understand how emerging technologies like AI should be regulated, at what level, and who gets to regulate. For instance, if the US regulates the development of an AI model that Pakistan is using, that could mean rules being put into place that are exclusive of the voices of Pakistani citizens in shaping them. At the same time, if the US does not do anything in terms of the regulation of the use of technology globally, it could lead to the...

BEYOND BOUNDARIES VI 5TH PAK-AFGHAN RELIGIOUS SCHOLARS DIALOGUE

Introduction The 5th Pak-Afghan Religious Stakeholders Dialogue, organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), brought together 25 participants, including religious scholars, academicians, and political analysts from Pakistan and Afghanistan. The conference also saw notable participation from the representatives of the British High Commission (BHC) Islamabad and the former Chairman of the Council of Islamic Ideology (CII), Dr. Qibla Ayaz. Critical Analysis Both countries face significant challenges related to the TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) and other militant groups like ISKP (Islamic State-Khorasan Province). The discussions emphasized how these groups exploit the lack of clear counterterrorism measures and effective border control between the two nations. Pakistani participants voiced their concerns over Afghanistan's role in containing the TTP, urging Afghan officials to take a proactive stance against the group’s acitivities. Afghan participants, while mostly acknowledging the concerns of Pakistan, expressed frustration with the widespread perception that Afghanistan is merely a sanctuary for militancy, emphasizing the constraints faced by a nation still seeking international legitimacy. They conveyed a desire to normalize ties globally while meeting security obligations, which they argued can only be achieved if they receive more structured support from neighboring countries like Pakistan and key international actors.  

CHINA, AFGHANISTAN, & PAKISTAN: CONFLICT, COOPERATION, OR CONFUSION?

October 31, 2024 Organized by: The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) Introduction The roundtable brought together senior policymakers, opinion leaders, researchers, analysts, and diplomats to discuss the evolving relationship between China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Led by Dr. Barnett Rubin, senior research fellow at the Stimson Center, the conversation focused on the strategic opportunities and persistent challenges within this trilateral relationship. The FGD aimed to analyze the trilateral dynamics of China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in the context of regional stability, economic development, and counter-terrorism cooperation. Participants examined key issues, including China's shifting role in regional peace-building, security concerns linked to the Belt and Road Initiative, and the complex dynamics surrounding Afghanistan-Pakistan relations that require further understanding and engagement for lasting regional stability. Critical Analysis The trilateral relationship among China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan is marked by a combination of factors: economic ambitions, security concerns, and historical tensions. There is a need to explore these challenges and opportunities within the triangular dynamic, underscoring the necessity for regional and strategic alignment, cooperation, and integration. China’s role in particular, transitioning from a stance of non-intervention to one of active engagement, arises out of its pursuit of regional stability in alignment with its economic expansion through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Meanwhile, Afghanistan and Pakistan navigate a historically fraught relationship where unresolved border issues, insurgent threats, and differing visions for governance create recurring friction. Afghanistan’s stability remains a linchpin for regional peace, with both Pakistan and China affected by the ongoing threat of terrorism from within its borders. Yet, the prospects for comprehensive cooperation are hindered by mutual...

Does censure on the disease outbreak data help or damage the control situation in Pakistan?

By Dr. Masood Joegezi The alarming rise of Diphtheria-Corynebacterium cases in Karachi, which primarily affect the throat, releases toxin (formation of greyish white membrane also called throat distemper) and upper respiratory tract in humans, especially in children. It is a completely preventable disease with a vaccine (PENTA—a combination of antigens against diseases like diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis-B, and Haemophilus influenzae type b), which is administered I/M as the 1st dose given at 6 weeks of age, the 2nd dose at 10 weeks of age, and the 3rd dose at 14 weeks of age. If a child has not received the 1st dose by the age of 1 year, start vaccination as soon as possible according to the 0-1-6 schedule: 2 doses 4 weeks apart, then a 3rd dose 6 months after the 1st dose. Each year Pakistan has been reporting an increasing number of diphtheria cases, which correspond to the vaccination trends in the children despite having Federal & Provincial EPI Directorates and Districts and beyond field staffing, which is responsible for reaching every child during the special drive and delivering routine immunization to the children from the health facilities across the country. There is insecurity and saving skin from accountability in the health officials who are trying to prevent information to the public on the infectious disease outbreak, then things go bad to worse. In case someone in the system gives breaking news, they will face disciplinary action from the high officials, as the majority of the time our electronic and press media gives the news of a disease outbreak in Pakistan. In the beginning of this year 2024, the Ministry of National Health Islamabad conducted a global health security summit to be the most responsible state and shared data and information on infectious diseases with the world; however, insecurity and reservation still exist in the system. There was a huge outbreak of diphtheria in Karachi in October 2024. Regrettably,  health...

A Proposal to Ensure Pollution-Free Punjab

The author argues that Punjab could achieve clean air if the government prioritized sustainable solutions over spectacle. By Imtiaz Gul Lahore, Pakistan’s second-largest city, has been recording some of the highest air pollution levels globally, reaching a hazardous Air Quality Index (AQI) of 707. Dense clouds of dust and pollutants have blanketed the region, trapping heat and obstructing cooler weather patterns, further cementing Lahore’s status as the world’s most polluted city. The problem is widespread across South Asia, where 29 of the world’s 30 most polluted cities are found in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. According to World Bank data, air pollution incurs significant economic costs in the region, with annual expenses estimated in 2019 at $36.8 billion for India, $8.1 billion for Bangladesh, and $47 billion for Pakistan. This begs the question of whether any institutions are effectively addressing this issue, especially in Pakistan, where the Ministry of Climate Change and other entities seem to invest millions annually in climate initiatives, often with limited impact. Pakistan has set a goal of reducing projected emissions by 50% by 2030. However, a recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions assessment, backed by the European Commission, showed that Pakistan’s total emissions reached 546 million tons in 2022, up from 307 million tons in 2002. This breakdown includes methane (49.9%), carbon dioxide (36.5%), and nitrous oxide (11.7%). While government-backed efforts may fall short, individuals committed to environmental preservation have emerged. One such figure is Engineer Arshad H. Abbasi, who led efforts to protect the 40,000 Kanals of ancient forest on Patriata Mountain—a critical water source for Pakistan’s twin cities—from being developed. Abbasi is also known internationally for his proposal to demilitarize the 700 km² Siachen Glacier by transforming it into a Peace Park, arguing that Indian military presence accelerates glacier melt. India has...

Smog Requires Permanent Trans-Boarder Mechanism

By Dr. Masood Joegezi Last week Lahore capital city of Punjab once again has been declared the most polluted city due to the factor smog in the world. The smog which contain toxic chemicals (nitric oxide, Sulphur dioxide, ozone low lying) particulates released from brickkilns factories, industries, crops waste burning and malfunctioning engine of the vehicles. Keeping in view the high air quality index the Govt of Punjab has declared an emergency and has planned artificial rains to mitigate the impact of the smog which has reached AQI 756, we have observed that such experiments did not bring the situation under control in the last winter. Air pollution, it seems, has become a public health emergency in Pakistan. It has been estimated that over 128,000 deaths occur in Pakistan due to air pollution illnesses.23-Apr-2024. The disease surveillance data shows that out of approximately 12000 pneumonia cases between Nov 2023- Feb 2024, some 545 people died. Experts categorically blamed the environmental air pollution, foggy weather, freezing cold weather and disrupted gas supply to the homes. The huge influx of sick patients who were suffering from Asthma, Bronchitis and Pneumonia in Lahore and other affected districts later caused the health authority to declare an emergency in the hospitals. The number of people killed in road traffic accidents is several hundred due to the smog however the exact number data is not available with the authorities. The ad hoc policy by the successive civilian governments did not address the catastrophic environmental issue which has a detrimental effect on people health especially respiratory tract disorders like Asthma, Bronchitis and Pneumonia in children and elderly people. This nascent policy document  Smog Action Plan has yet to be fully implemented to end the burning of crops by the farmers, close brick kilns factories, reduce toxic gases being emitted from the industries and correct malfunction vehicle engines respectively....

Terrorism is a Common Enemy of Pakistan and Afghanistan; Joint Efforts Must for Regional Stability: Religious Scholars

Respect for the writ of the state is the prerequisite for any dialogue or negotiation between the state and group or individual. No state negotiates with terrorists; Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) - declared as Fitna al Khawarij by the government of Pakistan - has contributed to severe violence in the country, including attacks on civilians and community elders and security forces. While the TTP’s presence in Afghanistan is an acknowledged reality, Pakistani stakeholders believe that the Taliban government could play a constructive role in addressing this threat to Pakistan’s national security and its relationship with Afghanistan. The remarks were made by the former chairman of the Council of Islamic Ideology Dr. Qibla Ayaz, currently a member of the Shariat Appellate Bench of the Supreme Court (SC), during the 5th round of Pak-Afghan Religious Scholars Dialogue held in Islamabad by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). In the context of education, Dr. Ayaz highlighted that internationally accepted educational models, such as Indonesia’s, could be adapted in Afghanistan to provide a curriculum that aligns with both sharia guidelines and modern standards, without requiring an extensive overhaul. This approach was suggested as a pragmatic response to the complexity of revising hundreds of books. The Afghan government must consider the international asks on the matters of girls and women rights to work and education; reversing restrictions on their fundamental rights can actually pave way for their recognition by the global communities including states and citizens, whereas conditioning education on international recognition will create more obstacles to the acceptance and might even risk reducing international aid and support to the country already undergoing severe humanitarian crisis. The participants acknowledged that terrorism is a common threat and underlined counter-terrorism cooperation between two sides to jointly tackle the threats to both...

Revisiting or Renegotiating the Indus Water Treaty – A Death Sentence for Peace in South Asia

As a member of the Board of Governors at the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), I have long been passionate about water security. I anticipated a strong, effective response to the Indian government’s misinterpretation of the need to revisit or renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty, particularly under the pretext of climate change. This narrative threatens peace in South Asia by overshadowing the stability essential for addressing poverty. I am reaching out to you as federal secretaries, given your roles as principal accounting officers for this vital matter, which is a lifeline for Pakistan. On January 25, 2023, India issued a notice requesting modifications to the treaty, followed by another on August 30, 2024, seeking further changes. The second notice stated that no further meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission would occur until both governments engage in renegotiation discussions, effectively pausing the treaty’s three-tiered dispute resolution process. You have the original documents, and it is critical to note that India’s justification revolves around climate change and environmental challenges in the watersheds of the Western and Eastern rivers. The vague, lackluster response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on September 19, 2024, suggests that both the Ministry of Water Resources and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have failed to adequately address the issue. Decisive action could have mitigated the situation earlier. Revisiting the treaty threatens Pakistan’s water security, which is deeply tied to the nation’s energy, food, and economic stability. I firmly believe that DG (India), the Pakistani High Commissioner in New Delhi, and his staff must be aware of the press coverage of the proceedings of the 17th Lok Sabha Standing Committee on Water Resources (2021–22). In Recommendation No. 31 (Para No. 2.39), the committee directed the Government of India with the following words: “There is a need to renegotiate the Treaty to establish...

Pakistan’s fight to end polio amid the climate crisis

Pakistan, one of the last two endemic countries for wild polio, is closer than ever before to ending this devastating disease for good. However, many experts say Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to the climate crisis. As the world becomes hotter, more frequent and severe heatwaves, intense droughts, and devastating floods, threaten the incredible progress that has been made against polio. Just last year, from May to October 2022, a historic heat wave was followed by heavy monsoon rains and melting Himalayan glaciers, causing the worst floods in Pakistan’s history—almost one-third of the country was under water at its peak. One in seven people in the country were affected by these floods and close to eight million people were displaced, including thousands of polio workers themselves. Critical infrastructure across the country was also damaged, from roads and bridges to health and sanitation systems. Such devastation following floods and storms leads to wastewater overflow, compromising safe drinking water and spreading pathogens like cholera and polio. This increases the risk of people encountering these life-threatening diseases while making it even harder to reach every child with the necessary vaccines to protect them. In response to this climate emergency, the program activated extreme weather contingency plans to resume immunization activities for polio and other vaccine-preventable diseases as soon as possible. This included adjusting campaign schedules and strategies, such as conducting vaccinations at health camps, at transit points, and in settlements for displaced persons. In some cases, this meant wading through deep water to reach children with life-saving vaccines. Despite the extraordinary circumstances, the program managed to reach nearly 32 million children in the country during its August 2022 campaign. Health worker Shahida Saleem sits outside her house in Fatehpur, Rajanpur district during a polio campaign in September 2022. ©...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar