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Outlaws’ Fatalities Surpass Civilian and Security Losses for First Time in 12 Years, Overall Violence Drops 13%
CRSS Security Report - Q1 2025 Outline The first quarter of 2025 saw some promising trends in the security landscape of Pakistan, with i) the fatalities of militants and insurgents outnumbering the cumulative losses of civilians and security forces personnel for the first time in twelve years, ii) notably less fatal losses among civilians and security forces personnel compared to Q4 2024, and iii) nearly 13% reduction in overall violence. Despite progress, KP and Balochistan remain epicenters of violence, accounting for 98% of all fatalities, with attacks growing bolder and militant tactics evolving - including the unprecedented hijacking of Jaffar Express. Projections warn of over 3,600 fatalities by year-end if current trends persist, potentially making 2025 one of Pakistan’s deadliest years. Key findings of the Q1 2025 Security Report, issued by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Pakistan. Overall Toll During Q1 2025, Pakistan witnessed 897 violence-linked fatalities and 542 injuries among civilians, security personnel and outlaws. The tally of casualties, totaling 1439, stemmed from as many as 354 incidents of violence including terror attacks and counter-terror operations. Compared to Q4 2024 where 1028 fatalities were recorded, these figures mark nearly 13% decline in overall violence. Regional Impact Majority of the fatalities and incidents of violence were recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, with both accounting for over 98% of all fatalities and 94% incidents, cumulatively. Individually, while the former province suffered over 63% of all violence related fatalities, compared to Q4 2024, it witnessed a promising 18% reduction in violence. Similarly, the latter province suffered 35% of all fatalities in the period under review, and compared to last quarter, it recorded an alarming 15% surge in violence. The comparison disregards surge recorded in other provinces/ regions as the number of fatalities remain very low....
The Brewing Crisis
By Elsa Imdad The ever-delicate Pak-Afghan relationship hangs by a thread, with unresolved tensions sparking fears of a deeper regional crisis. The growing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are now at a critical point, with the potential for even further destabilisation. Pakistan’s threat to deport over a million Afghan refugees has brought to the forefront the economic and humanitarian strains on Afghanistan’s government, which is already reeling from a lack of international support. Historically, both nations have wielded trade, transit, refugees, and border disputes as political leverage. However, the current impasse is more severe than previous conflicts. Beyond the refugee crisis, Pakistan has persistently voiced concerns over cross-border terrorism emanating from Afghan territory. Islamabad has presented substantial evidence implicating Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), and the Hafez Gul Bahadur group in attacks on Pakistani soil. The numbers bear witness to the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2025, Pakistan experienced a 45% increase in terrorism-related fatalities, with deaths rising from 748 in 2023 to 1,081 in 2024. The TTP was responsible for 558 deaths in 2024, accounting for approximately 52% of the total terrorism-related fatalities in the country that year. ISKP, meanwhile, has expanded its regional footprint, executing increasingly lethal attacks. These groups, entrenched in Afghan territory, continue to launch cross-border assaults, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Yet, the Taliban’s unwillingness to rein them in has only deepened Pakistan’s frustration. The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance is rooted in both ideological and strategic considerations. Many of these militant factions were integral to the Taliban’s prolonged insurgency against U.S.-led NATO forces. Confronting them now risks alienating former allies and driving...
Shakarparian Forest – The Vital Organ of Islamabad’s Ecosystem
By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi Since its designation as Pakistan’s capital in 1963, Islamabad has experienced exponential growth and urbanization, with its population surging By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi from 0.117 million in 1961 to 2.4 million by 2023. The city's favorable climate, abundant green spaces, accessible healthcare and educational facilities, and modern amenities appeal to both people residing inside the country and expatriates. However, this rapid growth has exacted a severe environmental cost, with the city’s urbanization leading to significant changes in land use and ecological balance, deforestation, habitat loss, and disruption of its vital ecosystems. The replacement of natural land cover with impermeable urban materials has contributed to changing local climates, increased energy consumption, and affected air and water quality. Islamabad’s rapid urbanization makes it one of the fastest expanding cities in Pakistan but the conversion of croplands, grasslands, and forests into urban structures poses significant environmental challenges. It highlights the need for sustainable urban planning and management practices to mitigate the negative impacts on the city's ecology and residents. The Tragic Tale of Islamabad's Urbanization Islamabad, a city once known for its lush green landscapes and pleasant climate, now suffers from the devastating consequences of uncontrolled urbanization. Between 1961 and 2024, the city has experienced an alarming temperature rise of 5°C, with projections indicating a further rise of 0.7°C by 2039 and 2.2°C by 2069. The urban heat island effect has turned the city into a scorching hotbed. A City Drowning in Its Own Development The unchecked growth of Islamabad has led to a plethora of environmental disasters. The city's sprawling landscape has exacerbated traffic congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, and air pollution. The replacement of natural surfaces with impermeable ones has made the city vulnerable to urban floods. The...
Relations Taken Hostage to Vindictive and Arrogant Mindset
By Imtiaz Gul Any conversation on whether and how to improve Indo-Pakistan relations will remain incomplete without a peep back to statements by political stalwarts to grasp the mindset and strategy that PM Narendra Modi and national security advisor Ajit Doval brought with them in 2014, i.e. how to deal with Pakistan. What strategy did they adopt to punish the country seen as the backer of the Kashmir militancy and those who staged the Mumbai attacks? Context India Today (late October 2009) held a round table of security experts under the title BEST (best experts on security and terrorism). Ajit Doval and G. Parthasarthi, a former high commissioner to Pakistan, were among the 12 experts on the session on “how to tackle an obstinate Pakistan.” (https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/cover-story/story/20091109-how-to-tackle-an-obstinate-pakistan-741229-2009-10-28) The security dialogue yielded interesting observations and recommendations. Some of the key points put on the table by Ajit Doval read: We secured Bangladesh and handed over to them to run their own country. So that is one… You can never deal with any obstinate enemy unless you have brought it to your terms… To do that, don’t let either side win. Pakistan is in turmoil, there are two sides to it, their army is seriously engaged, so let it continue. Parthasarthi, considered as a hardliner on Pakistan and China, had the following to say: It (Pakistan) has fault-lines which may be exploited by India as they have to realise that. The fact that Pakistan is having problems in Afghanistan, they are also with Iran. These are things we need to work on. Parthasarthi went on to insist that “Pakistan has to be made to realise that it will pay, not just a diplomatic price (the Kerry Lugar Bill being one manifestation of that)[1] but also a price otherwise for what it is doing and therefore raising the costs for Pakistan’s covert overt needs to be an essential ingredient of policy.” Another participant, Ved Marwah,...
The Energy Crisis in Pakistan: A Tragedy of Neglect, Corruption, and Systemic Decay
By Engineer Musa Arshad Abbasi The Collapse of a Nation’s Power Pakistan’s energy crisis is not just an inconvenience—it is a national catastrophe that has crippled industries, strangled economic growth, and plunged millions into darkness. This crisis is not merely the result of natural resource shortages but the inevitable consequence of decades of systemic corruption, poor governance, and a widespread disregard for scientific progress. At its core, this disaster stems from a deliberate neglect of mechanical engineering, technical expertise, and sustainable energy solutions. As a country rich in coal, hydropower, and solar energy resources, Pakistan should not be struggling with daily power cuts, inflated energy costs, and a failing grid. Yet, due to corrupt politicians, an unaccountable military-industrial complex, and an education system that produces underqualified engineers, Pakistan has fallen into an energy abyss. With the gap between the rich and the poor widening every single day, the elite enjoy imported luxuries while the middle and lower classes struggle to afford basic necessities like food and electricity. A Resource-rich Rich Country Devoid of Vision Pakistan is not devoid of energy resources. The Thar coal reserves, estimated at 175 billion tons, remain largely untapped due to poor planning, mismanagement, and environmental concerns that are conveniently ignored elsewhere in the world. The Indus River system offers vast potential for hydroelectric power, yet bureaucratic inefficiency and corruption have prevented the construction of large-scale dams. Similarly, solar and wind energy projects remain stagnant due to bureaucratic red tape and a lack of incentives for engineers and entrepreneurs. The real tragedy is not the absence of energy - it is in fact the absence of foresight, planning, and investment in the right sectors. Countries like China, India, and even Bangladesh have adopted diverse energy solutions, while Pakistan continues to import...
The Myth of Climate Change in Pakistan Sorrow Tale of Systemic Failures
Technical Analysis by Engineer Arshad H Abbasi Executive Summary This report provides an incisive scrutiny of Pakistan's flood management strategies and systemic failures (both due to incompetence and corrupt practices) and highlights the country's vulnerability to devastating floods, as evidenced by the 2010 and 2022 disasters. Both calamities entailed cumulative estimated losses worth over $73 billion. In the aftermath of the floods in 2010 and 2022, the Government of Pakistan framed climate change as the sole culprit behind the staggering damages to the economy. After the catastrophic failure to manage the floods of 2010, international consultancy firms of repute were commissioned to develop a National Flood Protection Plan, including recommendations to enhance the capacity of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC). A distinguished panel comprising Dr. Fernando J. Gonzalez, former Regional Director of the World Bank; Dr. Thinus Basson, a professor and consultant with leading U.S. universities; and Dr. Bert Schultz, a Dutch expert renowned for his work on irrigation and drainage, conducted extensive studies and finalized their recommendations in August 2019. However, it seems that no government heeded these recommendations by international consultants on flood management, and the tendency is often to deflect from systemic failures by attributing the disaster entirely to climate change—glossing over the underlying factors that aggravated losses. No surprise that the federal finance minister, Mohammad Aurangzeb, admitted before the Senate Climate Change Committee that “the country has lost its credibility” (February 20, 2025). This begs a basic question: Can we relate the devastating impact of floods to climate change only? Do the damages accrue only from uncontrollable floods, or do systemic failures prevent partial mitigation and minimization of the floods? The report, therefore, explores this basic question and reviews Flood Management Strategies led by the Federal...
Nuclear Power and Powerlessness: Pakistan’s Struggle with Energy Inefficiency and Corruption
By Engineer Musa Arshad Despite possessing the sixth-largest nuclear arsenal globally, with approximately 160 warheads, Pakistan's energy sector is plagued by inefficiencies that have far-reaching consequences. The country's reliance on international aid to sustain its power sector is a stark contrast to its nuclear capabilities, which position Pakistan as a significant player on the international stage. The statistics are alarming: 40% of Pakistan's population lives in poverty, largely due to the energy sector's inefficiencies. Rather than addressing the root causes of these issues, stakeholders seem to be perpetuating the problems for personal financial gain. The prevailing approach of adding new power plants to the national grid, without ensuring transparency and accountability, is akin to pouring more water into a leaking bucket—a short-sighted solution that fails to address the underlying issues. A lingering myth suggests that in the waning years of the Soviet Union, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) allegedly devised a plan to infiltrate and manipulate the USSR's leadership structure. According to this narrative, the CIA aimed to install incompetent officials in key positions, thereby exacerbating the Soviet Union's internal weaknesses and hastening its downfall. While the veracity of this claim remains uncertain, one thing is clear: the Soviet Union's sudden and catastrophic collapse on January 1, 1991, was, in part, attributable to the ineptitude of its highest-ranking officials. Despite boasting the largest landmass and an arsenal of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons, the Soviet Union's sphere of influence crumbled, leaving in its wake a power vacuum and a legacy of instability. Pakistan's energy sector is plagued by a decades-long history of corruption and inefficiency, eerily reminiscent of the Soviet Union's downfall. Over the past thirty years, officials and ministers have been appointed to key positions in the Planning Commission, Ministry of...
Afghans in Pakistan Shouldn’t Pay the Price for Political Disputes: Senator Mushahid Hussain
If we look at the refugee profile in Pakistan, for the most part, the country has been a model host for welcoming refugees from different countries. Pakistan has the largest number of refugees for the longest duration in modern history, not just from Afghanistan but also having the largest Rohingya and Bengali population, and Somalis as well. They are experiencing better conditions in Pakistan compared to many other countries in the region, in terms of the treatment they receive from host communities and authorities. These remarks were made by Former Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed during the dialogue on Human Trafficking in Pak-Afghan Region, organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). He underlined the need to look at the bigger picture of the issues of human trafficking and illegal migration to make sense of the scale and magnitude of the problem which has now become a global concern and having impact on the politics of and relations between several countries; noting that it was at the core of president trump’s election campaign as the flagship issue. He said that foreigners or non-Pakistanis living in Pakistan who have children born in Pakistan should become Pakistani citizens whether they are Afghans, Rohingyas, or Bengalis. “I believe, if someone who has been living here for the last 30, 40 years, they are Pakistanis”. “We must have problems with the regime in Kabul but the Afghans living in Pakistan should not pay the price”, he said while opposing the forced eviction of refugees on any pretext, noting that it was morally, legally, and politically wrong. Pakistan is a big enough country to accommodate people who come here for economic and so many other reasons. Afghans in Pakistan who worked with US forces in Afghanistan have been waiting for their visas for the last three years, face prolonged uncertainty, financial hardships, and legal challenges as they navigate bureaucratic delays and shifting immigration policies. The issue of...
The Dark Clouds of Pakistan: An Investigative Report on Air Pollution and Smog
By Engineer Arshad H. Abbasi Air pollution in Pakistan has emerged as a critical environmental and public health challenge, with major cities such as Lahore consistently recording some of the highest Air Quality Index (AQI) levels globally. The prevalence of toxic smog, exacerbated by vehicular emissions, industrial pollutants, and the use of substandard fuels, has led to significant health repercussions, including respiratory diseases and premature mortality. Additionally, the economic burden of air pollution is substantial, with estimated losses amounting to billions of dollars annually. Despite the severity of the crisis, policy responses have been insufficient in addressing the root causes of deteriorating air quality. This report provides an evidence-based analysis of Pakistan’s air pollution crisis, examining key sources, socio-economic consequences, and the necessity of adopting stringent regulatory frameworks and technological interventions to mitigate environmental degradation and safeguard public health.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Pashtun and Tahaffuz Movements: Mobilizing across borders
Dr. Seema Khan is a lecturer in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at Deakin University in Australia. She serves as a section editor of the Springer Global Encyclopedia of Territorial Rights and was a Jinnah Fellow at the London School of Economics. Beyond academia, Seema’s professional journey spans over two decades within the public sectors across Australia and Pakistan. When addressing militancy in KP and other regions of Pakistan, there is a need to develop a national consensus. A comprehensive and integrated strategy is required to combat militancy effectively, one that considers local realities and dynamics rather than relying solely on top-down decisions that often ignore ground-level complexities. A collaborative approach, involving experts who have demonstrated success in addressing such challenges, is essential. Some officers have previously undertaken remarkable work, and their insights should be leveraged. While preparing a report on the current situation in Pakistan, I read Azam Khan’s detailed Counter Terrorism Strategy duly approved by the provincial Cabinet in its 46th meeting on 02/05/2012. The officer was a former Principal Secretary to PM Imran Khan & Former Secretary Home KP in the ANP’s government. Astonishingly, the strategy is so relevant even today and unfortunately, a decade down the line we are back to square one- nothing has changed. The report sets a strong foundation and presents a template to counter this menace. Though issued over a decade ago even before the formation of the 20 Points National Action Plan (NAP-2014) outlined by NACTA that was approved on 24th of December, 2014 by the Parliament. Despite all this, the relevance of the Counter Terrorism Strategy still remains undiminished. It underscores the importance of local participation in understanding the socio-political dynamics at play and highlights the risks of excluding those with direct interaction with affected communities. It is crucial that LEAs, both...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.