Current Projects

Chenab at the Crossroads: A Plea for Preservation Over Exploitation

By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi This op-ed explores the urgent need to safeguard the Chenab River’s fragile ecosystem, threatened by rampant hydropower expansion and accelerating climate change in the Himalayan region. A serious oversight is unfolding in Pakistan. While the nation focuses solely on India’s activities concerning the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum Rivers, a potentially more pressing issue goes unnoticed. The Ministry of Water and Power appears to limit its concern to Indian-occupied Kashmir, overlooking developments beyond that region. This narrow geographical focus raises concerns about the ministry’s understanding of the rivers it is responsible for safeguarding. For those who remain oblivious, let this sink in: the Chenab River, poetically known as the Moon River, flows for 130 kilometers through Himachal Pradesh, a region that holds just a small fraction—7,500 square kilometers—of its total 61,000 square kilometers basin. Yet, in this relatively small region, Himachal Pradesh is ruthlessly constructing, implementing, and planning 49 hydroelectric projects on the Chenab. The tragic reality does not end here. Rivers like the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi, along with their smaller tributaries, have already been dammed into submission. The Chenab, South Asia’s last relatively free-flowing and thriving river, is now under siege. And what lies ahead? If these hydroelectric projects are completed as planned, the Chenab will be reduced to a lifeless trickle, less than 10% of its flow visible to the world. Dams are being built in relentless succession, one after the other, leaving no room for the river to breathe. Water from one hydro project no longer meets the river; instead, it pours into the reservoir of the next. What was once a vibrant, living river is being transformed into a series of stagnant puddles and barren stretches, bypassed entirely by tunnels. The consequences of this brutal transformation are nothing short of catastrophic. Devastating impacts will be...

Thirst for Destabilisation: UNPACKING INDIA’S MOTIVES BEHIND THE TREATY SUSPENSION

CRSS is dedicated to delivering the finest unbiased, professional technical and legal analysis regarding the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. Our mission is not only to offer opinions but also to provide historical context and reports aimed at reinstating this landmark treaty, which once symbolized peace between two hostile nuclear powers. Our center will be glad to address all your queries. The announcement came like a knell, a cold and calculated stroke that severed the lifeline of hope. India declared the immediate suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a cornerstone of fragile peace between the two nations entangled in history’s barbed wire. The pronouncement, delivered by the steely voice of the Minister of Water Resources, C.R. Patil, left no room for ambiguity: “We will ensure that not even a drop of water from the Indus Rivers System goes to Pakistan.” For those who had clung to the faint possibility of reconciliation, it was more than a statement; it was the collapse of reason itself. It reduced decades of negotiations, treaties, and hopes to rubble. Among the broken aspirations was the vision of one solitary figure who had spent over a decade striving to turn the Siachen Glacier into a Peace Park, a sanctuary where hostility might thaw alongside the ice. Yet, even this glacier, occupied and melting at an unforgiving pace since 1982, now mirrors the unyielding stubbornness of human conflict. What could have been a beacon of reconciliation now lies as barren and battered as the treaty that has been discarded. The implications of this grim promise are staggering. The Indus River Basin, a lifeline for millions in Pakistan, will face catastrophic consequences if India follows through. This basin, with its annual flow of 122 to 150 million acre-feet, tells a bitter truth: 35% of the Indus’s waters, 55% of the Jhelum’s, and nearly all of the Chenab’s originate from Indian-controlled catchments. These rivers, vital to agriculture, energy, and livelihoods,...

Humanitarian Fallout of Afghan Mass Deportations

Deporting the innocent Afghans isn’t solving a crisis, it is creating one, as families are torn from their homes and thrust into an uncertain future. Women and children suffer the most. In a staggering wave of displacement, more than 250,000 Afghans returned from Pakistan in April alone, including 96,000 who were forcibly deported, according to the UN refugee agency (UNHCR). Among them were thousands of children, nearly 50,000 in just the first half of April, crossing the border into a country many of them have never called home. The majority of returns in April 2025 are Undocumented (73%), followed by ACC holders (26%) and Proof of Registration (PoR) card holders (1%). Out of the overall returns, 50% are female, of which 29% are girls. 58% are children. These returns follow the expiration of Pakistan’s March 31 deadline for undocumented Afghans to leave the country, bringing the total number of returnees since September 2023 to nearly 940,000. More than half, around 545,000, are children, with one in five under the age of five. The impact of this influx is visible at reception centres like Spin Boldak in Kandahar. Save the Children’s mobile health teams offer emergency healthcare, nutrition, and sanitation support to families who arrive with little more than the clothes on their backs. Omer, a 30-year-old father of five, shared his harrowing experience. “I still cannot believe what has happened. I have lost everything overnight. The only things I managed to bring were my children’s clothes, a few blankets, and some kitchen utensils. I have no home, no place to go. The only thing I could think of was: where will I take my family?” Since 2023, more than 3.5 million people have returned to Afghanistan. This has deepened an existing crisis, with nearly 23 million Afghans, just under half the population, requiring humanitarian assistance in 2025. Among them, 15 million are facing acute food insecurity, and 3.5 million children are suffering from malnutrition. Babar...

Multilateral Solution, Shared Global Responsibility Can Tackle Afghan Refugee Crisis: Former Envoy Durrani

Ambassador (retd) Asif Durrani underscored the complexity of the Afghan refugee situation in Pakistan, reminding all stakeholders that “this is not just Pakistan’s responsibility - the international community must share the burden”. He emphasized the need for a balanced approach, recognizing the distinction between security concerns and the legitimate presence of peaceful, long-settled Afghan businesspeople. Speaking at the Focus Group Discussion titled Policy Options for Balancing Expulsions & Rights of Afghans Born/Settled in Pakistan, Pakistan's former envoy for Afghanistan called for international cooperation, pointing out that the issue transcends national borders and reflects a broader humanitarian and political challenge that demands urgent multilateral attention. The discussion was organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) with participation from the Afghan business community based in Pakistan, representatives from the diplomatic community, and former envoys and regional experts. Ambassador Durrani said that the international acknowledgement that there is now peace in Afghanistan serves as a pull factor for the repatriation of Afghans living in Pakistan. It is widely known that most Afghans here don’t want to stay in Pakistan - they want to move to the US or Europe. However, after President Trump’s policy changes, that pathway is now blocked, and they are stuck in limbo. While I sympathize deeply with the Afghan people, this is not just Pakistan’s responsibility as a matter of fact - the international community must share the onus. Therefore, the Afghans must raise their case at the international level, appealing to the broader international community to accommodate and help them, recognizing them as political refugees. Pakistan must do its part, but so should others. “Yes, this is a humanitarian crisis. Children born here should have the right to citizenship. But more than that, it is also the responsibility of the current...

CHINA IN AFGHANISTAN THE DRAGON RISES

Abstract This report tracks China's engagement with Afghanistan in recent years, both pre- and post-Taliban rule in August 2021. Guided by principles of non-interference and sovereignty, China's Afghan policy has adapted to address assertive geo-economic endeavours and security concerns, notably with groups like the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), now known as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). Since August 2021, China has pursued a pragmatic approach, emphasizing diplomatic engagement, economic development, and regional stability without giving up its insistence on the need to counter terrorist groups that shelter in Afghanistan and represent a threat to various neighbouring countries. This is evident through multiple Chinese interactions with Taliban officials, economic initiatives like the Belt and Road Forum, and security cooperation agreements. While cautious about overt recognition of the Taliban regime, China prioritizes stability and economic integration, guided by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China's involvement underscores pragmatic geopolitical considerations and economic aspirations while carefully navigating the complexities of Afghanistan's political landscape. Introduction China's involvement in Afghanistan has been persistent but understated. It is anchored in the principles established during the early years of the Afghan Republic (2004-2021). These principles include respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other nations, non-interference in their internal affairs, and avoidance of pursuing a so-called sphere of influence. But its rise as the world’s second-largest economy and a predominant political force in Asia, China’s foundational principles face mounting pressures. The nation's growing economic prowess fuels expectations of assertiveness in geopolitical matters, albeit without overt display of military strength, except concerning the South China Sea and Taiwan. China's focus primarily centres on geo-economics...

Silent Expulsions: Human Cost of Pakistan’s Refugee Crackdown

By Shahana Naseer Pakistan has been a major refuge for Afghan refugees, hosting millions over the years. The influx began with over a million Afghans fleeing to Pakistan after the 1979 Soviet invasion, followed by subsequent waves of refugees. Recently, the Taliban's takeover in 2021 led to another wave of migration, with many Afghans seeking refuge in Pakistan due to the Taliban's policies. Pakistan's approach to Afghan refugees evolved from initial hospitality to increasing hostility, fueled by security concerns and geopolitical tensions, especially after the TTP’s attack in Chitral in September 2023. The Pakistani government has intensified its operations to deport foreign nationals residing illegally in the country, with a particular focus on Afghan residents. Afghan migrant deportations occurred in two phases: first, forced deportations of unregistered migrants in 2023, followed by a phase targeting Citizen Card holders, who were required to leave Pakistan by April 1, 2025. International Organization of Migration (IOM) data reveals that, from September 15 2023 to April 2025, 861763 Afghans have returned to Afghanistan. While Pakistan's efforts to document foreigners, including Afghan refugees, are legitimate given its social, economic, and security concerns. However, the current approach also sparks humanitarian crises, with reports of injustice and limited access to fundamental rights. Amid the ongoing deportation drive, concerns have emerged over the separation of family members. In some cases, one family member remains in Pakistan while others are detained or deported. According to a report by Dawn, the son-in-law of a man named Zaeenuddin has been placed in a detention center in Karachi, while his daughter remains outside. Zaeenuddin has appealed to authorities, requesting either the release of his son-in-law or the inclusion of his daughter in the deportation process, so the couple can return to Afghanistan together. Ghulam Hazrat, a 40-year-old Karachi...

A Crime against the Nation: How the Kachhi Canal Project Failed Balochistan

By Arshad H Abbasi Is Pakistan’s relentless quest for nuclear capability the unifying thread binding its four provinces and three territories? Perhaps. Yet, as history and human experience whisper through the corridors of time, the truest and most enduring bond lies not in power, but in water. When shared with justice and wisdom, water emerges as a timeless force, weaving together the fabric of a nation with unmatched grace. Nature has generously bestowed upon Pakistan a symphony of interconnected rivers, a gift that transcends the divides of geography. The two main rivers of Balochistan, the Zhob and Kundar, carve their origins from its rugged heart, journeying onward to embrace the Gomal River in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). Together, they flow toward the mighty Indus, a lifeline threading through Punjab and finally Sindh, where it breathes life into fields and communities. In the intricate choreography of rivers and canals, there lies a profound truth: nature, when nurtured and shared with equity, holds the power to bind the hearts of a nation. In these flowing waters, the spirit of unity finds its most enduring roots. The bond between provinces was further fortified in 1969, with the completion of the Pat Feeder Canal for Balochistan, a triumph that drew life from the Indus at the Guddu Barrage. As the largest irrigation project in Balochistan, the canal transformed the arid lands of Nasirabad and Jafarabad districts. Pakistan's irrigation history shines with this success story, which sparked agricultural prosperity and bridged Baluchistan’s socio-economic gap with the rest of the country, fostering shared growth. Buoyed by this success, the vision of the Kachhi Canal Project was born in 2002—a bold endeavor stretching over 500 kilometers, drawing water from the Taunsa Barrage on the Indus and channeling it deep into Balochistan. Designed to irrigate 720,000 acres of land, nearly triple the reach of the Pat Feeder Canal, this project held the promise of...

Indus Interrupted: The Quest for Equitable Water Distribution in Pakistan

By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi The Indus River, ancient and indomitable, courses through the veins of a region steeped in millennia of history and myth, binding what is now Pakistan with a force far greater than any political alliance or nuclear arsenal. It is the sublime river of time, shaping civilizations and eroding the conceits of transient powers. From its formation 50 million years ago to the rise of Harappa and Mohenjo-Daro, the Indus has been the silent witness to humanity’s shared destiny, its waters a mirror reflecting the continuity of cultural and linguistic heritage. In Sindh, protests now erupt—leaders of nationalist movements, lawyers, poets, and students join their voices in lamentation over the proposed canals that threaten to distort this primordial lifeline. The Indus is not merely a river; it is the elemental force that connects provinces and peoples, shaping their history as inexorably as it carved its banks. The Water Apportionment Accord of March 21, 1991, an achievement unparalleled since the Indus Waters Treaty, sought to give form and fairness to this divine inheritance. With Punjab accorded 47%, Sindh 42%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 8%, and Baluchistan 3%, the Accord distilled the essence of historical precedent into pragmatic legislation. It remains a perfect artifact of human intention, unchallenged by any province. Yet, perfection on paper falters in practice, where IRSA—the regulator born to embody the Accord’s spirit—has become the very source of dissonance. The discord lies not in the Accord’s percentages but in the mechanics of its implementation: an arithmetic of error, compiled by a bureaucratic machinery ill-suited to its monumental task. It is here, in the gap between the vision and its execution, that the tragedy unfolds. This is no mere administrative squabble; it is a fracturing of unity, a challenge to the shared identity forged by the Indus over centuries. The Indus flows as it always has, indifferent to the squabbles of those who...

Outlaws’ Fatalities Surpass Civilian and Security Losses for First Time in 12 Years, Overall Violence Drops 13%

CRSS Security Report - Q1 2025 Outline The first quarter of 2025 saw some promising trends in the security landscape of Pakistan, with i) the fatalities of militants and insurgents outnumbering the cumulative losses of civilians and security forces personnel for the first time in twelve years, ii) notably less fatal losses among civilians and security forces personnel compared to Q4 2024, and iii) nearly 13% reduction in overall violence. Despite progress, KP and Balochistan remain epicenters of violence, accounting for 98% of all fatalities, with attacks growing bolder and militant tactics evolving - including the unprecedented hijacking of Jaffar Express. Projections warn of over 3,600 fatalities by year-end if current trends persist, potentially making 2025 one of Pakistan’s deadliest years. Key findings of the Q1 2025 Security Report, issued by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Pakistan. Overall Toll During Q1 2025, Pakistan witnessed 897 violence-linked fatalities and 542 injuries among civilians, security personnel and outlaws. The tally of casualties, totaling 1439, stemmed from as many as 354 incidents of violence including terror attacks and counter-terror operations. Compared to Q4 2024 where 1028 fatalities were recorded, these figures mark nearly 13% decline in overall violence. Regional Impact Majority of the fatalities and incidents of violence were recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, with both accounting for over 98% of all fatalities and 94% incidents, cumulatively. Individually, while the former province suffered over 63% of all violence related fatalities, compared to Q4 2024, it witnessed a promising 18% reduction in violence. Similarly, the latter province suffered 35% of all fatalities in the period under review, and compared to last quarter, it recorded an alarming 15% surge in violence. The comparison disregards surge recorded in other provinces/ regions as the number of fatalities remain very low....

The Brewing Crisis

By Elsa Imdad The ever-delicate Pak-Afghan relationship hangs by a thread, with unresolved tensions sparking fears of a deeper regional crisis. The growing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are now at a critical point, with the potential for even further destabilisation. Pakistan’s threat to deport over a million Afghan refugees has brought to the forefront the economic and humanitarian strains on Afghanistan’s government, which is already reeling from a lack of international support. Historically, both nations have wielded trade, transit, refugees, and border disputes as political leverage. However, the current impasse is more severe than previous conflicts. Beyond the refugee crisis, Pakistan has persistently voiced concerns over cross-border terrorism emanating from Afghan territory. Islamabad has presented substantial evidence implicating Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), and the Hafez Gul Bahadur group in attacks on Pakistani soil. The numbers bear witness to the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2025, Pakistan experienced a 45% increase in terrorism-related fatalities, with deaths rising from 748 in 2023 to 1,081 in 2024. The TTP was responsible for 558 deaths in 2024, accounting for approximately 52% of the total terrorism-related fatalities in the country that year. ISKP, meanwhile, has expanded its regional footprint, executing increasingly lethal attacks. These groups, entrenched in Afghan territory, continue to launch cross-border assaults, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Yet, the Taliban’s unwillingness to rein them in has only deepened Pakistan’s frustration. The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance is rooted in both ideological and strategic considerations. Many of these militant factions were integral to the Taliban’s prolonged insurgency against U.S.-led NATO forces. Confronting them now risks alienating former allies and driving...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar