Current Projects

CHINA IN AFGHANISTAN THE DRAGON RISES

Abstract This report tracks China's engagement with Afghanistan in recent years, both pre- and post-Taliban rule in August 2021. Guided by principles of non-interference and sovereignty, China's Afghan policy has adapted to address assertive geo-economic endeavours and security concerns, notably with groups like the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), now known as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). Since August 2021, China has pursued a pragmatic approach, emphasizing diplomatic engagement, economic development, and regional stability without giving up its insistence on the need to counter terrorist groups that shelter in Afghanistan and represent a threat to various neighbouring countries. This is evident through multiple Chinese interactions with Taliban officials, economic initiatives like the Belt and Road Forum, and security cooperation agreements. While cautious about overt recognition of the Taliban regime, China prioritizes stability and economic integration, guided by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China's involvement underscores pragmatic geopolitical considerations and economic aspirations while carefully navigating the complexities of Afghanistan's political landscape. Introduction China's involvement in Afghanistan has been persistent but understated. It is anchored in the principles established during the early years of the Afghan Republic (2004-2021). These principles include respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other nations, non-interference in their internal affairs, and avoidance of pursuing a so-called sphere of influence. But its rise as the world’s second-largest economy and a predominant political force in Asia, China’s foundational principles face mounting pressures. The nation's growing economic prowess fuels expectations of assertiveness in geopolitical matters, albeit without overt display of military strength, except concerning the South China Sea and Taiwan. China's focus primarily centres on geo-economics...

Silent Expulsions: Human Cost of Pakistan’s Refugee Crackdown

By Shahana Naseer Pakistan has been a major refuge for Afghan refugees, hosting millions over the years. The influx began with over a million Afghans fleeing to Pakistan after the 1979 Soviet invasion, followed by subsequent waves of refugees. Recently, the Taliban's takeover in 2021 led to another wave of migration, with many Afghans seeking refuge in Pakistan due to the Taliban's policies. Pakistan's approach to Afghan refugees evolved from initial hospitality to increasing hostility, fueled by security concerns and geopolitical tensions, especially after the TTP’s attack in Chitral in September 2023. The Pakistani government has intensified its operations to deport foreign nationals residing illegally in the country, with a particular focus on Afghan residents. Afghan migrant deportations occurred in two phases: first, forced deportations of unregistered migrants in 2023, followed by a phase targeting Citizen Card holders, who were required to leave Pakistan by April 1, 2025. International Organization of Migration (IOM) data reveals that, from September 15 2023 to April 2025, 861763 Afghans have returned to Afghanistan. While Pakistan's efforts to document foreigners, including Afghan refugees, are legitimate given its social, economic, and security concerns. However, the current approach also sparks humanitarian crises, with reports of injustice and limited access to fundamental rights. Amid the ongoing deportation drive, concerns have emerged over the separation of family members. In some cases, one family member remains in Pakistan while others are detained or deported. According to a report by Dawn, the son-in-law of a man named Zaeenuddin has been placed in a detention center in Karachi, while his daughter remains outside. Zaeenuddin has appealed to authorities, requesting either the release of his son-in-law or the inclusion of his daughter in the deportation process, so the couple can return to Afghanistan together. Ghulam Hazrat, a 40-year-old Karachi...

A Crime against the Nation: How the Kachhi Canal Project Failed Balochistan

By Arshad H Abbasi Is Pakistan’s relentless quest for nuclear capability the unifying thread binding its four provinces and three territories? Perhaps. Yet, as history and human experience whisper through the corridors of time, the truest and most enduring bond lies not in power, but in water. When shared with justice and wisdom, water emerges as a timeless force, weaving together the fabric of a nation with unmatched grace. Nature has generously bestowed upon Pakistan a symphony of interconnected rivers, a gift that transcends the divides of geography. The two main rivers of Balochistan, the Zhob and Kundar, carve their origins from its rugged heart, journeying onward to embrace the Gomal River in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). Together, they flow toward the mighty Indus, a lifeline threading through Punjab and finally Sindh, where it breathes life into fields and communities. In the intricate choreography of rivers and canals, there lies a profound truth: nature, when nurtured and shared with equity, holds the power to bind the hearts of a nation. In these flowing waters, the spirit of unity finds its most enduring roots. The bond between provinces was further fortified in 1969, with the completion of the Pat Feeder Canal for Balochistan, a triumph that drew life from the Indus at the Guddu Barrage. As the largest irrigation project in Balochistan, the canal transformed the arid lands of Nasirabad and Jafarabad districts. Pakistan's irrigation history shines with this success story, which sparked agricultural prosperity and bridged Baluchistan’s socio-economic gap with the rest of the country, fostering shared growth. Buoyed by this success, the vision of the Kachhi Canal Project was born in 2002—a bold endeavor stretching over 500 kilometers, drawing water from the Taunsa Barrage on the Indus and channeling it deep into Balochistan. Designed to irrigate 720,000 acres of land, nearly triple the reach of the Pat Feeder Canal, this project held the promise of...

Indus Interrupted: The Quest for Equitable Water Distribution in Pakistan

By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi The Indus River, ancient and indomitable, courses through the veins of a region steeped in millennia of history and myth, binding what is now Pakistan with a force far greater than any political alliance or nuclear arsenal. It is the sublime river of time, shaping civilizations and eroding the conceits of transient powers. From its formation 50 million years ago to the rise of Harappa and Mohenjo-Daro, the Indus has been the silent witness to humanity’s shared destiny, its waters a mirror reflecting the continuity of cultural and linguistic heritage. In Sindh, protests now erupt—leaders of nationalist movements, lawyers, poets, and students join their voices in lamentation over the proposed canals that threaten to distort this primordial lifeline. The Indus is not merely a river; it is the elemental force that connects provinces and peoples, shaping their history as inexorably as it carved its banks. The Water Apportionment Accord of March 21, 1991, an achievement unparalleled since the Indus Waters Treaty, sought to give form and fairness to this divine inheritance. With Punjab accorded 47%, Sindh 42%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 8%, and Baluchistan 3%, the Accord distilled the essence of historical precedent into pragmatic legislation. It remains a perfect artifact of human intention, unchallenged by any province. Yet, perfection on paper falters in practice, where IRSA—the regulator born to embody the Accord’s spirit—has become the very source of dissonance. The discord lies not in the Accord’s percentages but in the mechanics of its implementation: an arithmetic of error, compiled by a bureaucratic machinery ill-suited to its monumental task. It is here, in the gap between the vision and its execution, that the tragedy unfolds. This is no mere administrative squabble; it is a fracturing of unity, a challenge to the shared identity forged by the Indus over centuries. The Indus flows as it always has, indifferent to the squabbles of those who...

Outlaws’ Fatalities Surpass Civilian and Security Losses for First Time in 12 Years, Overall Violence Drops 13%

CRSS Security Report - Q1 2025 Outline The first quarter of 2025 saw some promising trends in the security landscape of Pakistan, with i) the fatalities of militants and insurgents outnumbering the cumulative losses of civilians and security forces personnel for the first time in twelve years, ii) notably less fatal losses among civilians and security forces personnel compared to Q4 2024, and iii) nearly 13% reduction in overall violence. Despite progress, KP and Balochistan remain epicenters of violence, accounting for 98% of all fatalities, with attacks growing bolder and militant tactics evolving - including the unprecedented hijacking of Jaffar Express. Projections warn of over 3,600 fatalities by year-end if current trends persist, potentially making 2025 one of Pakistan’s deadliest years. Key findings of the Q1 2025 Security Report, issued by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Pakistan. Overall Toll During Q1 2025, Pakistan witnessed 897 violence-linked fatalities and 542 injuries among civilians, security personnel and outlaws. The tally of casualties, totaling 1439, stemmed from as many as 354 incidents of violence including terror attacks and counter-terror operations. Compared to Q4 2024 where 1028 fatalities were recorded, these figures mark nearly 13% decline in overall violence. Regional Impact Majority of the fatalities and incidents of violence were recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, with both accounting for over 98% of all fatalities and 94% incidents, cumulatively. Individually, while the former province suffered over 63% of all violence related fatalities, compared to Q4 2024, it witnessed a promising 18% reduction in violence. Similarly, the latter province suffered 35% of all fatalities in the period under review, and compared to last quarter, it recorded an alarming 15% surge in violence. The comparison disregards surge recorded in other provinces/ regions as the number of fatalities remain very low....

The Brewing Crisis

By Elsa Imdad The ever-delicate Pak-Afghan relationship hangs by a thread, with unresolved tensions sparking fears of a deeper regional crisis. The growing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are now at a critical point, with the potential for even further destabilisation. Pakistan’s threat to deport over a million Afghan refugees has brought to the forefront the economic and humanitarian strains on Afghanistan’s government, which is already reeling from a lack of international support. Historically, both nations have wielded trade, transit, refugees, and border disputes as political leverage. However, the current impasse is more severe than previous conflicts. Beyond the refugee crisis, Pakistan has persistently voiced concerns over cross-border terrorism emanating from Afghan territory. Islamabad has presented substantial evidence implicating Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), and the Hafez Gul Bahadur group in attacks on Pakistani soil. The numbers bear witness to the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2025, Pakistan experienced a 45% increase in terrorism-related fatalities, with deaths rising from 748 in 2023 to 1,081 in 2024. The TTP was responsible for 558 deaths in 2024, accounting for approximately 52% of the total terrorism-related fatalities in the country that year. ISKP, meanwhile, has expanded its regional footprint, executing increasingly lethal attacks. These groups, entrenched in Afghan territory, continue to launch cross-border assaults, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Yet, the Taliban’s unwillingness to rein them in has only deepened Pakistan’s frustration. The Afghan Taliban’s reluctance is rooted in both ideological and strategic considerations. Many of these militant factions were integral to the Taliban’s prolonged insurgency against U.S.-led NATO forces. Confronting them now risks alienating former allies and driving...

Shakarparian Forest – The Vital Organ of Islamabad’s Ecosystem

By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi Since its designation as Pakistan’s capital in 1963, Islamabad has experienced exponential growth and urbanization, with its population surging By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi from 0.117 million in 1961 to 2.4 million by 2023. The city's favorable climate, abundant green spaces, accessible healthcare and educational facilities, and modern amenities appeal to both people residing inside the country and expatriates. However, this rapid growth has exacted a severe environmental cost, with the city’s urbanization leading to significant changes in land use and ecological balance, deforestation, habitat loss, and disruption of its vital ecosystems. The replacement of natural land cover with impermeable urban materials has contributed to changing local climates, increased energy consumption, and affected air and water quality. Islamabad’s rapid urbanization makes it one of the fastest expanding cities in Pakistan but the conversion of croplands, grasslands, and forests into urban structures poses significant environmental challenges. It highlights the need for sustainable urban planning and management practices to mitigate the negative impacts on the city's ecology and residents. The Tragic Tale of Islamabad's Urbanization Islamabad, a city once known for its lush green landscapes and pleasant climate, now suffers from the devastating consequences of uncontrolled urbanization. Between 1961 and 2024, the city has experienced an alarming temperature rise of 5°C, with projections indicating a further rise of 0.7°C by 2039 and 2.2°C by 2069. The urban heat island effect has turned the city into a scorching hotbed. A City Drowning in Its Own Development The unchecked growth of Islamabad has led to a plethora of environmental disasters. The city's sprawling landscape has exacerbated traffic congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, and air pollution. The replacement of natural surfaces with impermeable ones has made the city vulnerable to urban floods. The...

Relations Taken Hostage to Vindictive and Arrogant Mindset

By Imtiaz Gul Any conversation on whether and how to improve Indo-Pakistan relations will remain incomplete without a peep back to statements by political stalwarts to grasp the mindset and strategy that PM Narendra Modi and national security advisor Ajit Doval brought with them in 2014, i.e. how to deal with Pakistan. What strategy did they adopt to punish the country seen as the backer of the Kashmir militancy and those who staged the Mumbai attacks? Context India Today (late October 2009) held a round table of security experts under the title BEST (best experts on security and terrorism). Ajit Doval and G. Parthasarthi, a former high commissioner to Pakistan, were among the 12 experts on the session on “how to tackle an obstinate Pakistan.” (https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/cover-story/story/20091109-how-to-tackle-an-obstinate-pakistan-741229-2009-10-28) The security dialogue yielded interesting observations and recommendations. Some of the key points put on the table by Ajit Doval read: We secured Bangladesh and handed over to them to run their own country. So that is one… You can never deal with any obstinate enemy unless you have brought it to your terms… To do that, don’t let either side win. Pakistan is in turmoil, there are two sides to it, their army is seriously engaged, so let it continue. Parthasarthi, considered as a hardliner on Pakistan and China, had the following to say: It (Pakistan) has fault-lines which may be exploited by India as they have to realise that. The fact that Pakistan is having problems in Afghanistan, they are also with Iran. These are things we need to work on. Parthasarthi went on to insist that “Pakistan has to be made to realise that it will pay, not just a diplomatic price (the Kerry Lugar Bill being one manifestation of that)[1] but also a price otherwise   for what it is doing and therefore raising the costs for Pakistan’s covert overt needs to be an essential ingredient of policy.” Another participant, Ved Marwah,...

The Energy Crisis in Pakistan: A Tragedy of Neglect, Corruption, and Systemic Decay

By Engineer Musa Arshad Abbasi The Collapse of a Nation’s Power Pakistan’s energy crisis is not just an inconvenience—it is a national catastrophe that has crippled industries, strangled economic growth, and plunged millions into darkness. This crisis is not merely the result of natural resource shortages but the inevitable consequence of decades of systemic corruption, poor governance, and a widespread disregard for scientific progress. At its core, this disaster stems from a deliberate neglect of mechanical engineering, technical expertise, and sustainable energy solutions. As a country rich in coal, hydropower, and solar energy resources, Pakistan should not be struggling with daily power cuts, inflated energy costs, and a failing grid. Yet, due to corrupt politicians, an unaccountable military-industrial complex, and an education system that produces underqualified engineers, Pakistan has fallen into an energy abyss. With the gap between the rich and the poor widening every single day, the elite enjoy imported luxuries while the middle and lower classes struggle to afford basic necessities like food and electricity. A Resource-rich Rich Country Devoid of Vision Pakistan is not devoid of energy resources. The Thar coal reserves, estimated at 175 billion tons, remain largely untapped due to poor planning, mismanagement, and environmental concerns that are conveniently ignored elsewhere in the world. The Indus River system offers vast potential for hydroelectric power, yet bureaucratic inefficiency and corruption have prevented the construction of large-scale dams. Similarly, solar and wind energy projects remain stagnant due to bureaucratic red tape and a lack of incentives for engineers and entrepreneurs. The real tragedy is not the absence of energy - it is in fact the absence of foresight, planning, and investment in the right sectors. Countries like China, India, and even Bangladesh have adopted diverse energy solutions, while Pakistan continues to import...

The Myth of Climate Change in Pakistan Sorrow Tale of Systemic Failures

Technical Analysis by Engineer Arshad H Abbasi Executive Summary This report provides an incisive scrutiny of Pakistan's flood management strategies and systemic failures (both due to incompetence and corrupt practices) and highlights the country's vulnerability to devastating floods, as evidenced by the 2010 and 2022 disasters. Both calamities entailed cumulative estimated losses worth over $73 billion. In the aftermath of the floods in 2010 and 2022, the Government of Pakistan framed climate change as the sole culprit behind the staggering damages to the economy. After the catastrophic failure to manage the floods of 2010, international consultancy firms of repute were commissioned to develop a National Flood Protection Plan, including recommendations to enhance the capacity of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC). A distinguished panel comprising Dr. Fernando J. Gonzalez, former Regional Director of the World Bank; Dr. Thinus Basson, a professor and consultant with leading U.S. universities; and Dr. Bert Schultz, a Dutch expert renowned for his work on irrigation and drainage, conducted extensive studies and finalized their recommendations in August 2019. However, it seems that no government heeded these recommendations by international consultants on flood management, and the tendency is often to deflect from systemic failures by attributing the disaster entirely to climate change—glossing over the underlying factors that aggravated losses. No surprise that the federal finance minister, Mohammad Aurangzeb, admitted before the Senate Climate Change Committee that “the country has lost its credibility” (February 20, 2025). This begs a basic question: Can we relate the devastating impact of floods to climate change only? Do the damages accrue only from uncontrollable floods, or do systemic failures prevent partial mitigation and minimization of the floods? The report, therefore, explores this basic question and reviews Flood Management Strategies led by the Federal...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar