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Afghanistan’s Peace and Economic Development Is a Shared Regional Responsibility, Not Charity: Scholars
Tashkent/Islamabad: Afghanistan’s stability is a regional imperative that demands a coordinated, principled, and inclusive response. At a multistakeholder dialogue hosted by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Islamabad in collaboration with the Institute for Advanced International Studies (IAIS), Tashkent, on July 23–24, 2025, participants emphasized that peace and economic recovery in Afghanistan must not be treated as charity or a political burden, but as a shared moral and strategic responsibility. They underscored that regional stability hinges on inclusive education, collective security, and cross-border cooperation rooted in mutual interest, not exceptionalism. The two-day dialogue held in Tashkent, “Building Bridges: Regional Dialogue for Peace and Development”, brought together scholars and policy experts from Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Egypt. Discussions focused on inclusive education, addressing the misinterpretation of religion, and developing practical frameworks for sustained regional cooperation rooted in mutual benefit and long-term peacebuilding. Participants emphasized the need for greater regional synergy to promote trade, inclusive economic development, and coordinated responses to shared challenges such as refugee displacement, drug trafficking, and terrorism. They unanimously reaffirmed that education is both a sacred Islamic right and a regional necessity, especially in the light of the ban on girls’ education in Afghanistan. “Women’s education is an absolutely essential element for socio-economic development. Universities must serve not just as centres of knowledge, but as bridges between communities and countries, and scholars hold the sacred responsibility of opening minds and gatekeeping societies against negative influence”, said Dr. Qibla Ayaz, former Chairperson of Pakistan’s Council of Islamic Ideology. Speakers also warned that the instrumentalization of religion by non-state actors continues to erode...
PAKISTAN WITNESSED PROMISING TRENDS IN ITS SECURITY LANDSCAPE FOR Q2, 2025 INCLUDING 32% DECLINE IN VIOLENCE
CRSS SECURITY REPORT - Q2, 2025 With at least 615 fatalities and 388 injuries - among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws - in about 273 incidents of violence, including terror attacks and counter-terror operations, Pakistan witnessed a nearly 32% decline in overall violence, and several other promising trends in its security landscape for the second quarter of 2025, according to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). These include: i) Fatalities dropping from 900 in Q1 to 615 in Q2, 2025, a metric behind the reported 32% reduction in violence.ii) The fatalities suffered by security personnel and civilians combined (282) were still less than the total number of outlaws’ fatalities recorded (333) – amounting to over 15% less comparative losses among civilians and security officials, iii) Around 32% and 40% less violence recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan provinces, respectively, compared to Q1. Violence-linked fatalities dropped from 567 to 389 in KP, and from 317 to 190 in Balochistan, indicating a possible strategic breakthrough on the back of a pro-active hunt-neutralise-capture campaign While the terrorism and insurgency-induced violence receded in these conflict-hit provinces, both regions continued to bear the brunt of violence, accounting for over 94% of the total fatalities and 93% incidents of violence recorded in this quarter. The TTP continued to lead the violence in KP, and Balochistan remained a parallel epicenter of unrest, marked by a deadly mix of separatist militancy and targeted violence, particularly against state forces. The spread of militancy into previously calmer areas is also concerning. Pakistan’s largest province of Punjab, on the other hand, witnessed an alarming trend, recording a surge in fatalities by 162%, though the number of fatalities was low; from 8 in Q1 to 21 in Q2, 2025. Notably, Azad Jammu & Kashmir, which reported zero fatalities in Q1, recorded 6 deaths in Q2. Islamabad and Sindh...
Iran’s Strategic Resistance and the Emerging Threat to Pakistan
By Imtiaz Gul Iran’s response to Israeli aggression has redrawn the contours of modern conflict in the region, where missiles are only part of the story. For Pakistan, the real threat may lie in the invisible war already underway. The recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel marked the end of a brief but consequential confrontation, one that unfolded not just on the battlefield but across cyber domains, diplomatic arenas, and intelligence networks. While the immediate hostilities may have ceased, the shockwaves they triggered are only beginning to reach countries like Pakistan, which must now confront a rapidly evolving security landscape. This was not merely another Middle Eastern skirmish. It was a direct challenge to the established regional order, exposing not only the vulnerabilities of traditional military alliances but also the silent war unfolding beneath the surface, involving drones, data, and deeply embedded espionage networks. A Heavy Toll and Unshaken Resolve Iran is currently engaged in a comprehensive post-conflict assessment. The country suffered grave losses, both in human terms and in critical infrastructure, particularly its drone and defense production capabilities. Over 600 people were killed, including senior military commanders, nuclear scientists, intelligence operatives, and civilians. Despite these staggering losses and the overwhelming pressure from the United States and Israel, Iran did not buckle. Instead, it responded forcefully. The Israeli perception of security was punctured by a massive Iranian missile barrage, which reportedly bypassed Israel’s defense systems and led to an American-mediated ceasefire after 12 days of intense confrontation. The Illusion of Invincibility Shattered Though figures like Donald Trump have claimed that Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility was decimated, credible observers argue there is no concrete evidence of such irreversible damage. More importantly, the myth of Israeli military invincibility, carefully...
Iranian Military Officials / Scientists killed So Far
Israeli military targeted Iran’s nuclear scientist and military sites and Iran vows painful and bitter revenge. As expected, Israel launched widespread strikes across Iran Friday morning, reportedly targeting nuclear facilities and military sites, including in Tehran, Natanz, Tabriz, and Isfahan. Israel stated the operation aimed to "roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival." This attack reportedly involved over 200 fighter jets. Iranian state media confirmed the deaths of several senior Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists. This includes: Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri: Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces. Gen. Hossein Salami: Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid: Senior IRGC commander and head of the central headquarters of the Iranian military. Fereydoon Abbasi: Nuclear scientist and former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi: Nuclear scientist. Abdolhamid Minoucher: Nuclear scientist. Other unnamed senior figures of the Iranian General Staff and leaders of the nuclear program were also reportedly eliminated. Prior to these recent strikes, there have been other assassinations attributed to Israel: Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (November 2020): Iran's top nuclear scientist. Col. Sayad Khodayee (May 2022): An officer in Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Ayoub Entezari (May 2022): Aeronautical engineer. Kamran Aghamolaei (May 2022): Geologist. Razi Mousavi (December 2023): Senior Iranian general in Syria. Brigadier General Sadegh Omidzadeh (January 2024): Intelligence officer with the IRGC Quds Force. Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi (April 2024): Killed in an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, along with other IRGC officers. Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, were also killed in Israeli attacks. Ismail Haniyeh: Was assassinated on July 31, 2024, in Tehran, Iran, by what was described as...
Tapping Trouble: India’s Canal Expansion Threatens Indus Waters Treaty
By Engineer Arshad H. Abbasi India's canal expansion plan sparks water war fears as Pakistan warns of treaty violation and agricultural collapse. On May 16th, five Reuters journalists revealed a grim and deeply troubling report: India is allegedly considering a drastic measure to curtail Pakistan’s water supply by expanding the Indus River infrastructure. At the heart of this alarming development is a proposal to double the length of the Ranbir Canal on the River Chenab—from its current 60 kilometers to a staggering 120 kilometers. This move appears to be a calculated strategy to choke the vital flow of water from the Indus Basin to Pakistan, a lifeline for millions downstream. Is India’s action essentially an open declaration of its intent to unilaterally revoke the Indus Waters Treaty? With plans to increase the canal’s water-carrying capacity from 40 cubic meters per second (1,400 cusecs) to 150 cubic meters per second (5,300 cusecs), this initiative could deal a devastating blow to Pakistan’s water reserves. Simple calculations underscore the scale of the potential loss: the average flow in the Chenab River where the canal originates is approximately 28,000 cusecs. By diverting such a significant volume, Pakistan’s water supply from the Chenab could plummet by nearly 20%. Quantitatively, this translates to an annual loss exceeding 5 million acre-feet (MAF) of water—valued at an estimated $10 billion on the global market. Such a reduction would not only deplete Pakistan’s already-stressed water resources but also devastate Punjab province, the nation’s agricultural heartland. Punjab, which contributes 68% of Pakistan’s annual food grain production, stands on the precipice of an agricultural and economic disaster. While India has long utilized the Ranbir Canal—a 19th-century irrigation channel predating the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—such a significant expansion raises serious questions about compliance with the treaty’s limitations. Annexure C of the IWT...
Afghan Deportations (Situational Update April – May 2025)
By Elsa Imdad In April 2025 alone, approximately 144,000 Afghans returned to Afghanistan from Pakistan, including nearly 30,000 who were deported. For many, this journey was not a return home, but an arrival into the unknown. Some had fled decades ago; others were born and raised in Pakistan and have never set foot on Afghan soil. They crossed borders with little more than the clothes on their backs, uncertain about where they would go or how they would survive. This mass movement comes amid the intensified enforcement of Pakistan’s Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan (IFRP), particularly its second phase. The plan, initially set to expel undocumented Afghans and Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders by March 31, was extended twice – first to April 10, then to April 30 – before officials declared there would be no further delays. As the deadline expired, border points such as Torkham and Spin Boldak saw thousands pouring across daily. According to a UNHCR update, more than 118,400 Afghans returned to Afghanistan between April 1 and 23. The overwhelming majority—72 percent—were undocumented, followed by 23 percent ACC holders and only 5 percent holding valid Proof of Registration (PoR) cards. In the third week of April alone, over 31,600 individuals crossed back into Afghanistan through the two main border crossings. Of these, 88 percent were undocumented or ACC holders, highlighting the scale of informal residency among Afghans in Pakistan. Deportations during this period accounted for around 12 percent, continuing a trend that began in late 2023. The crackdown has also led to a significant number of arrests. In April, approximately 18,800 Afghans were arrested and detained, primarily in the provinces of Punjab and Balochistan, further increasing the vulnerability of this population. UNHCR spokesperson Babar Baloch warned of the grave humanitarian implications of this mass return: “The arrival of more than a quarter of a million Afghans from Pakistan and Iran in one...
Chenab at the Crossroads: A Plea for Preservation Over Exploitation
By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi This op-ed explores the urgent need to safeguard the Chenab River’s fragile ecosystem, threatened by rampant hydropower expansion and accelerating climate change in the Himalayan region. A serious oversight is unfolding in Pakistan. While the nation focuses solely on India’s activities concerning the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum Rivers, a potentially more pressing issue goes unnoticed. The Ministry of Water and Power appears to limit its concern to Indian-occupied Kashmir, overlooking developments beyond that region. This narrow geographical focus raises concerns about the ministry’s understanding of the rivers it is responsible for safeguarding. For those who remain oblivious, let this sink in: the Chenab River, poetically known as the Moon River, flows for 130 kilometers through Himachal Pradesh, a region that holds just a small fraction—7,500 square kilometers—of its total 61,000 square kilometers basin. Yet, in this relatively small region, Himachal Pradesh is ruthlessly constructing, implementing, and planning 49 hydroelectric projects on the Chenab. The tragic reality does not end here. Rivers like the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi, along with their smaller tributaries, have already been dammed into submission. The Chenab, South Asia’s last relatively free-flowing and thriving river, is now under siege. And what lies ahead? If these hydroelectric projects are completed as planned, the Chenab will be reduced to a lifeless trickle, less than 10% of its flow visible to the world. Dams are being built in relentless succession, one after the other, leaving no room for the river to breathe. Water from one hydro project no longer meets the river; instead, it pours into the reservoir of the next. What was once a vibrant, living river is being transformed into a series of stagnant puddles and barren stretches, bypassed entirely by tunnels. The consequences of this brutal transformation are nothing short of catastrophic. Devastating impacts will be...
Thirst for Destabilisation: UNPACKING INDIA’S MOTIVES BEHIND THE TREATY SUSPENSION
CRSS is dedicated to delivering the finest unbiased, professional technical and legal analysis regarding the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. Our mission is not only to offer opinions but also to provide historical context and reports aimed at reinstating this landmark treaty, which once symbolized peace between two hostile nuclear powers. Our center will be glad to address all your queries. The announcement came like a knell, a cold and calculated stroke that severed the lifeline of hope. India declared the immediate suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a cornerstone of fragile peace between the two nations entangled in history’s barbed wire. The pronouncement, delivered by the steely voice of the Minister of Water Resources, C.R. Patil, left no room for ambiguity: “We will ensure that not even a drop of water from the Indus Rivers System goes to Pakistan.” For those who had clung to the faint possibility of reconciliation, it was more than a statement; it was the collapse of reason itself. It reduced decades of negotiations, treaties, and hopes to rubble. Among the broken aspirations was the vision of one solitary figure who had spent over a decade striving to turn the Siachen Glacier into a Peace Park, a sanctuary where hostility might thaw alongside the ice. Yet, even this glacier, occupied and melting at an unforgiving pace since 1982, now mirrors the unyielding stubbornness of human conflict. What could have been a beacon of reconciliation now lies as barren and battered as the treaty that has been discarded. The implications of this grim promise are staggering. The Indus River Basin, a lifeline for millions in Pakistan, will face catastrophic consequences if India follows through. This basin, with its annual flow of 122 to 150 million acre-feet, tells a bitter truth: 35% of the Indus’s waters, 55% of the Jhelum’s, and nearly all of the Chenab’s originate from Indian-controlled catchments. These rivers, vital to agriculture, energy, and livelihoods,...
Humanitarian Fallout of Afghan Mass Deportations
Deporting the innocent Afghans isn’t solving a crisis, it is creating one, as families are torn from their homes and thrust into an uncertain future. Women and children suffer the most. In a staggering wave of displacement, more than 250,000 Afghans returned from Pakistan in April alone, including 96,000 who were forcibly deported, according to the UN refugee agency (UNHCR). Among them were thousands of children, nearly 50,000 in just the first half of April, crossing the border into a country many of them have never called home. The majority of returns in April 2025 are Undocumented (73%), followed by ACC holders (26%) and Proof of Registration (PoR) card holders (1%). Out of the overall returns, 50% are female, of which 29% are girls. 58% are children. These returns follow the expiration of Pakistan’s March 31 deadline for undocumented Afghans to leave the country, bringing the total number of returnees since September 2023 to nearly 940,000. More than half, around 545,000, are children, with one in five under the age of five. The impact of this influx is visible at reception centres like Spin Boldak in Kandahar. Save the Children’s mobile health teams offer emergency healthcare, nutrition, and sanitation support to families who arrive with little more than the clothes on their backs. Omer, a 30-year-old father of five, shared his harrowing experience. “I still cannot believe what has happened. I have lost everything overnight. The only things I managed to bring were my children’s clothes, a few blankets, and some kitchen utensils. I have no home, no place to go. The only thing I could think of was: where will I take my family?” Since 2023, more than 3.5 million people have returned to Afghanistan. This has deepened an existing crisis, with nearly 23 million Afghans, just under half the population, requiring humanitarian assistance in 2025. Among them, 15 million are facing acute food insecurity, and 3.5 million children are suffering from malnutrition. Babar...
Multilateral Solution, Shared Global Responsibility Can Tackle Afghan Refugee Crisis: Former Envoy Durrani
Ambassador (retd) Asif Durrani underscored the complexity of the Afghan refugee situation in Pakistan, reminding all stakeholders that “this is not just Pakistan’s responsibility - the international community must share the burden”. He emphasized the need for a balanced approach, recognizing the distinction between security concerns and the legitimate presence of peaceful, long-settled Afghan businesspeople. Speaking at the Focus Group Discussion titled Policy Options for Balancing Expulsions & Rights of Afghans Born/Settled in Pakistan, Pakistan's former envoy for Afghanistan called for international cooperation, pointing out that the issue transcends national borders and reflects a broader humanitarian and political challenge that demands urgent multilateral attention. The discussion was organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) with participation from the Afghan business community based in Pakistan, representatives from the diplomatic community, and former envoys and regional experts. Ambassador Durrani said that the international acknowledgement that there is now peace in Afghanistan serves as a pull factor for the repatriation of Afghans living in Pakistan. It is widely known that most Afghans here don’t want to stay in Pakistan - they want to move to the US or Europe. However, after President Trump’s policy changes, that pathway is now blocked, and they are stuck in limbo. While I sympathize deeply with the Afghan people, this is not just Pakistan’s responsibility as a matter of fact - the international community must share the onus. Therefore, the Afghans must raise their case at the international level, appealing to the broader international community to accommodate and help them, recognizing them as political refugees. Pakistan must do its part, but so should others. “Yes, this is a humanitarian crisis. Children born here should have the right to citizenship. But more than that, it is also the responsibility of the current...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.