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No Easy Days for Pakistan Ahead

Pakistan is still Mistrusted by its Allies: For easing their troops out of Afghanistan, the US apparently needs a shoulder to rely on. And in the current scenario the Pakistan Army, headed by Gen Kayani, offers that shoulder. Hence, the overwhelming US desire to ensure continuity in command on the eastern side of the Durand Line. But beyond Gen Kayani extension, Clinton and Admiral Mullen latest visits (July 19 and July 24, 2010) need to be examined in the backdrop of the ever growing Indo-Afghan-American axis. Within six days, top leaders of these countries ´ Indian Foreign Affairs Minister S M Krishna, Hillary Clinton, President Hamid Karzai, and Afghan Commerce Minister Anwarul Haq ´ exchanged notes with Pakistani ministers and officials in Islamabad and Kabul. And on July 20, what stood out was the usual mistrust of Pakistan being the harbourer and promoter of terrorist forces. S M Krishna and Clinton left no doubt that mistrust remains the biggest thorn in the Indo-Afghan-American-Pakistan relationship. By practically insisting on the presence of Osama Bin Laden and Mulla Omar in Pakistan and asking for access to them, Ms Clinton practically indicted Pakistan for 'harbouring terrorists wanted by the United States.' Clinton claims also belied the niceties she showered around in Islamabad, belittling the claims of the desire 'for a long-term strategic partnership.' Regional Power ´ India ´ Still Skeptical of Pakistan Intentions: And this mistrust emanates not only from Washington but also sits deep in India, illustrated by the Deccan Herald on July 22: 'Clinton is right in the substance of her allegations, she is downplaying the magnitude of the problem. Knowledge of Bin Laden whereabouts might be restricted to elements in the Pakistan government but the support he and others of his ilk are getting is far more widespread from within the Pakistani establishment. In fact, Pakistan has made no shift away from its long-standing use of terrorism to further its...

Extremists’ Running out of Space in Pakistan

Pakistan Partnership in GWOT has Rattled Pakistanis: Until March 17, 2002, when an Afghan suicide bomber struck at the church located inside Islamabad diplomatic enclave, Pakistanis were unfamiliar with suicide bombings. But particularly since 2007, Pakistan has suffered almost 210 such attacks, piling misery and destruction in different locations. What becomes obvious from the trail of violence is the centrality of suicide bombings by brainwashed activists belonging to various groups; Lashkar-e- Jhangvi, Jaish-e- Mohammad, Tehreek-e-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (primarily sectarian in nature). Before September 11, 11 September 2001, the al-Al Qaeda did employ suicide missions as part its global jihad, yet in the aftermath of9/11, the extremist interpretation of jihad has undergone a more radical change, basically degenerating into a cult of suicide bombing. Pakistan ´ Suffering the Most: Most Pakistanis can tick off any number of militant attacks that have killed innocents in recent years. On May 28 gunmen and a suicide squad massacred nearly a 100 Ahmedi Muslims in Lahore. Three days later on June 1st, terrorists raided the hospital where a surviving attacker was under treatment, leaving killing another five killed in the ensuing battle with the security personnel. On the first of July 1, two suicide bombings killed about 50 at the popular Data Darbar Sufi e shrine in Lahore , one of Pakistan politically important cities. And on July 9th, a similarly well-coordinated terror strike in the tribal region - Mohmand Agency ´ left a bloody trail of death and destruction, killing; at least 106 dead and injuring dozens injured. The apparent target was the assembly of tribal elders with the local government administrator. As many as 32 prisoners, many of them terror suspects and accused, also escaped after parts of the road-side jail came crumbling down because of the massive impact. As of July 22nd, more than over 1,106 people ´ , including women,...

Extremists' Running out of Space in Pakistan

Pakistan Partnership in GWOT has Rattled Pakistanis: Until March 17, 2002, when an Afghan suicide bomber struck at the church located inside Islamabad diplomatic enclave, Pakistanis were unfamiliar with suicide bombings. But particularly since 2007, Pakistan has suffered almost 210 such attacks, piling misery and destruction in different locations. What becomes obvious from the trail of violence is the centrality of suicide bombings by brainwashed activists belonging to various groups; Lashkar-e- Jhangvi, Jaish-e- Mohammad, Tehreek-e-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (primarily sectarian in nature). Before September 11, 11 September 2001, the al-Al Qaeda did employ suicide missions as part its global jihad, yet in the aftermath of9/11, the extremist interpretation of jihad has undergone a more radical change, basically degenerating into a cult of suicide bombing. Pakistan ´ Suffering the Most: Most Pakistanis can tick off any number of militant attacks that have killed innocents in recent years. On May 28 gunmen and a suicide squad massacred nearly a 100 Ahmedi Muslims in Lahore. Three days later on June 1st, terrorists raided the hospital where a surviving attacker was under treatment, leaving killing another five killed in the ensuing battle with the security personnel. On the first of July 1, two suicide bombings killed about 50 at the popular Data Darbar Sufi e shrine in Lahore , one of Pakistan politically important cities. And on July 9th, a similarly well-coordinated terror strike in the tribal region - Mohmand Agency ´ left a bloody trail of death and destruction, killing; at least 106 dead and injuring dozens injured. The apparent target was the assembly of tribal elders with the local government administrator. As many as 32 prisoners, many of them terror suspects and accused, also escaped after parts of the road-side jail came crumbling down because of the massive impact. As of July 22nd, more than over 1,106 people ´ , including women,...

Extremists' Running out of Space in Pakistan

Pakistan Partnership in GWOT has Rattled Pakistanis: Until March 17, 2002, when an Afghan suicide bomber struck at the church located inside Islamabad diplomatic enclave, Pakistanis were unfamiliar with suicide bombings. But particularly since 2007, Pakistan has suffered almost 210 such attacks, piling misery and destruction in different locations. What becomes obvious from the trail of violence is the centrality of suicide bombings by brainwashed activists belonging to various groups; Lashkar-e- Jhangvi, Jaish-e- Mohammad, Tehreek-e-i Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (primarily sectarian in nature). Before September 11, 11 September 2001, the al-Al Qaeda did employ suicide missions as part its global jihad, yet in the aftermath of9/11, the extremist interpretation of jihad has undergone a more radical change, basically degenerating into a cult of suicide bombing. Pakistan ´ Suffering the Most: Most Pakistanis can tick off any number of militant attacks that have killed innocents in recent years. On May 28 gunmen and a suicide squad massacred nearly a 100 Ahmedi Muslims in Lahore. Three days later on June 1st, terrorists raided the hospital where a surviving attacker was under treatment, leaving killing another five killed in the ensuing battle with the security personnel. On the first of July 1, two suicide bombings killed about 50 at the popular Data Darbar Sufi e shrine in Lahore , one of Pakistan politically important cities. And on July 9th, a similarly well-coordinated terror strike in the tribal region - Mohmand Agency ´ left a bloody trail of death and destruction, killing; at least 106 dead and injuring dozens injured. The apparent target was the assembly of tribal elders with the local government administrator. As many as 32 prisoners, many of them terror suspects and accused, also escaped after parts of the road-side jail came crumbling down because of the massive impact. As of July 22nd, more than over 1,106 people ´ , including women,...

Private Security Contractors or Mercenaries on the Kill

Who is doing what? Following is a list of several private contracting firms that are assisting the American Defense department in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and places such as Tajikistan, Doha, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait: Fluor Corp, Blackwater, DynCorp, ArmorGroup North America, Xe (Blackwater), KBR Inc., Wackenhunt Services, NCL Holdings, Watan Risk (Afghan security and trucking firm handling the security of US/NATO cargo), CH2M Hill and Taos Industries (a subsidiary of Agility Defense & Government Services). While private contractors have eased the burden off the US military finances and personnel, they have also kicked off controversies ranging from financial fraud to human rights abuses to abuses of authority under CIA cover. The ever-increasing reliance on private contractors has also prompted a shift in the defense industry, sending more money to logistics and construction companies that can perform everything from basic functions to project engineering. Pentagon out-sourcing in fact has created an industry that nurtures a 'legitimate business interest' in conflict. It thrives off combat and counter-insurgency. A recent contract worth up to US$15 billion, for instance, went to two firms, DynCorp International Inc. and Fluor Corp., to build and support US military bases throughout Afghanistan. A lot of allegations of graft and misappropriation accompany these business ventures. Making illegal money with people blood: On December 17, for instance, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) asked a panel of witnesses from the State Department, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Defense Department, about who was responsible for putting out this money (for Pentagon contracts); the assembled group of witnesses could not give her a total. 'Pentagon auditors had examined US$ 5.9 billion worth of contracts and found about US$ 950 million in questioned and unsupported costs,' she said. 'Because auditors have only looked at a fraction of contracts, the...

Where is the Civilian Political Leadership in the New Swat?

Militancy has devastated Swat: Swat was a paradise on earth before the conflict started in the valley. People would flock to this paradise, especially in the summers. Besides the remains of Ghandara civilization, Swat is blessed with natural beauty in abundance. It used to be a tourists’ heaven before 2006 but after that it became, or was made by design, a safe haven for terrorists and their apologists. The worst conflict in the history of Pakistan happened here which has left 1.7 million Swatis in a dismal situation, and their image around the world is of terrorists and extremists. Militancy and counter-militancy affected the valley in every sphere of life but perhaps the worst damage done, among many, was to its tourism. According to an estimate, the tourism industry was afflicted with a loss of over Rs8 billion in the last three years. During these cruel years various tourist resorts namely Kalam, Bahrain, Miyadam, Madyan, Fiza Gat, Malam Jabba and Murghzar were deserted, gloomy and lonely. Pakistani nation’s response against fear: After a year of military offences in Swat, Operation Raah-e-Raast, Swatis hoped for a better and bright summer in 2010. Spring came and passed by unnoticed. No tourist ventured to Swat. In the beginning this summer was no different than the previous ones. The military announced its victory over the militants many times but it seemed the Pakistanis had ceased to believe in such claims. The military also declared to have encouraged the tourists to visit their once cherished destination, however the people of Swat were a bit non-complacent, amidst the scores of check posts scattered in the valley and the frequent target killings. But as the summer approached cities, tourists were seen in the valley especially in Bahrain and Kalam. In Bahrain a remarkable number of paying-guests have rented homes for two or three months. A similar rise in tourism is visible in Madyan too and a number of tourists from Punjab are seen visiting...

McChrystal’s Dismissal and Lessons for the US Strategists

Shock and awe for the Pentagon: Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal exit shocked almost everybody, particularly those within the Pentagon and the mighty defense establishment who still advocate and believe in the military surge. Yet, his ignominious departure was not unexpected. The Rolling Stone magazine profile only precipitated the ouster of a person who faced severe challenges to his position following the setback to the hyped-up Marja offensive. The IPS News had already forecast 'the specter of a collapse of U.S. political support,' and 'massive failure' on June 13, quoting various sources. McChrystal: a general in the field or a workman quarrelling with his tools? Picking up on McChrystal announcement on the delay until September of the military operation in Kandahar (in the context of failure in Marja), the IPS said this decision meant a serious blow to the general earlier chest-thumping statements. McChrystal and his staff hadtouted the Kandahar operation as the 'pivotal campaign of the war,' that would begin in June. But it is now clear that McChrystal had realized for weeks that the most basic premise of the operation turned out to be false. 'Equally damaging to the credibility of McChrystal's strategy was the Washington Post report published Thursday documenting in depth the failure of February's offensive in Marja.' the IPS report said, addingthat events since the launch of Marja operation in February had made abundantly clear that that the US-led coalition forces lacked the Afghan population support in what is known as the Taliban heartland. "When you go to protect people, the people have to want you to protect them," said McChrystal, told a NATO conference in London 11 days before his ouster, underlining the difficulties his mission could face in Kandahar. Marja operation ´ Failure, failure, failure: The Washington Post story had spoken of "U.S. officials complaints' that 'the support from Kandaharis that the United States was counting on (Afghan President...

McChrystal's Dismissal and Lessons for the US Strategists

Shock and awe for the Pentagon: Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal exit shocked almost everybody, particularly those within the Pentagon and the mighty defense establishment who still advocate and believe in the military surge. Yet, his ignominious departure was not unexpected. The Rolling Stone magazine profile only precipitated the ouster of a person who faced severe challenges to his position following the setback to the hyped-up Marja offensive. The IPS News had already forecast 'the specter of a collapse of U.S. political support,' and 'massive failure' on June 13, quoting various sources. McChrystal: a general in the field or a workman quarrelling with his tools? Picking up on McChrystal announcement on the delay until September of the military operation in Kandahar (in the context of failure in Marja), the IPS said this decision meant a serious blow to the general earlier chest-thumping statements. McChrystal and his staff hadtouted the Kandahar operation as the 'pivotal campaign of the war,' that would begin in June. But it is now clear that McChrystal had realized for weeks that the most basic premise of the operation turned out to be false. 'Equally damaging to the credibility of McChrystal's strategy was the Washington Post report published Thursday documenting in depth the failure of February's offensive in Marja.' the IPS report said, addingthat events since the launch of Marja operation in February had made abundantly clear that that the US-led coalition forces lacked the Afghan population support in what is known as the Taliban heartland. "When you go to protect people, the people have to want you to protect them," said McChrystal, told a NATO conference in London 11 days before his ouster, underlining the difficulties his mission could face in Kandahar. Marja operation ´ Failure, failure, failure: The Washington Post story had spoken of "U.S. officials complaints' that 'the support from Kandaharis that the United States was counting on (Afghan President...

McChrystal's Dismissal and Lessons for the US Strategists

Shock and awe for the Pentagon: Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal exit shocked almost everybody, particularly those within the Pentagon and the mighty defense establishment who still advocate and believe in the military surge. Yet, his ignominious departure was not unexpected. The Rolling Stone magazine profile only precipitated the ouster of a person who faced severe challenges to his position following the setback to the hyped-up Marja offensive. The IPS News had already forecast 'the specter of a collapse of U.S. political support,' and 'massive failure' on June 13, quoting various sources. McChrystal: a general in the field or a workman quarrelling with his tools? Picking up on McChrystal announcement on the delay until September of the military operation in Kandahar (in the context of failure in Marja), the IPS said this decision meant a serious blow to the general earlier chest-thumping statements. McChrystal and his staff hadtouted the Kandahar operation as the 'pivotal campaign of the war,' that would begin in June. But it is now clear that McChrystal had realized for weeks that the most basic premise of the operation turned out to be false. 'Equally damaging to the credibility of McChrystal's strategy was the Washington Post report published Thursday documenting in depth the failure of February's offensive in Marja.' the IPS report said, addingthat events since the launch of Marja operation in February had made abundantly clear that that the US-led coalition forces lacked the Afghan population support in what is known as the Taliban heartland. "When you go to protect people, the people have to want you to protect them," said McChrystal, told a NATO conference in London 11 days before his ouster, underlining the difficulties his mission could face in Kandahar. Marja operation ´ Failure, failure, failure: The Washington Post story had spoken of "U.S. officials complaints' that 'the support from Kandaharis that the United States was counting on (Afghan President...

The Real Enemy in Afghan War?

US setting objective before planning: The raging American desire of demonstrable achievements, if not victory, in Afghanistan clearly seems beset by two factors: Rush for results; and Lack of clarity on who is the real enemy. Think tankers and officials alike continue churning out security assessments and scenarios for Afghanistan. One after the other, almost every study and advice therein seems intended for what key Obama aides would like to hear; how to create conditions that would allow the US to begin a gradual draw-down of forces’ from July 2011. Underlying these recipes for how to extricate the USA out of the Afghan quagmire is a sense of panic within the administration which looks desperate to show-case some “stunning success” towards the end of the year before the mid-term Congressional elections get underway. Things gone awry in Operation Enduring Freedom: Special Envoy Richard Holbrook’s latest Islamabad visit, to be followed up by secretary of state Hilary Clinton next month, also underscore that panic in an extremely volatile situation; the official American casualty toll has just touched 1108, and a UN report released over the weekend points to “ alarming increases in suicide bombings and a 45 percent increase in assassinations of government officials in a three-month period ending June 16, and almost doubling of roadside bombings for the first four months of 2010. Deadly suicide bombings, according to the UN, tripled this year compared with 2009, with “such attacks now taking place an average of three times a week compared with once a week before,” with almost half the suicide attacks taking place in southern Afghanistan. “The shift to more complex suicide attacks demonstrates a growing capability of the local terrorist networks linked to Al Qaeda,” the report said. This also underlines that the insurgents’ reaction to an ever-increasing...