Current Projects

Operation in North Waziristan & the End-game.

Reality of North Waziristan: When Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani arrived in Washington next week for the third round of the Strategic Dialogue, the desperate American military establishment expectedly confronted him with an ambitious wish-list for action. And Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, quickly unveiled part of that list. 'He clearly knows what our priorities areÎ“Ã‡ÂªNorth Waziristan is the epicenter of terrorism, it's where al-Qaeda lives,' Mullen said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Conversations with Judy Woodruff.' Mullen also revealed Kayani "has committed to me to go into North Waziristan and to root out these terrorists as well.' The US military considers the Haqqani network, led by Sirajuddin Haqqani, the eldest son of veteran Afghan mujahideen leader Jalaluddin Haqqani, as the primary source of violence, based in and around North Waziristan, spread over about 5000 square kilometers along the mountainous border to Afghanistan. Haqqani also shelters not only Arab Al Qaeda but also the vicious Tehreeke Taliban Pakistan, Lashkare Jhangvi, and a few splinters off the Lashkare Taiba and Jaishe Mohammad. The region is also called the hornet nest for the presence of anti-US al Qaeda-linked militant groups. The presence of the CIA-operated Chapman base in the Afghan town of Khost near North Waziristan is also meant to neutralize the Haqqani network. If what Mullen said of Kayani were true, this commitment could mean a turnaround in what Gen.Kayani, known as a cool thinking cat within Pakistan military establishment, has been peddling for months; Pakistan army itself would choose the scale and timing of any military campaign in North Waziristan, Kayani a told a group of journalists a few months ago. Operating in the NW is not an issue of the will but of the capacity for Pakistan Army. The Corps 11, responsible for the entire northwestern region, including the federally administered tribal areas (FATA) is...

The “Petraeus Factor” and Changing Pak-US Military Relations

Anatomy of 'Why NATO Supplies are Back?': Hundreds ofNATO cargo trucks and containers are back on the Pakistani roads, carrying vital military, fuel and food supplies destined for troops based in Afghanistan. These almost 2000 kilometers roads ´ between the Karachi port in the south and the northwestern and southwestern border towns Torkham and Chamman remain the key, shortest link in this crucial supply chain, comprising some 6,500 trucks. This supply chain had come to a grinding haltafter NATO Apache helicopters fired two missiles on a Pakistani security post in the Kurram tribal region on September 30, destroying the post and killing three soldiers on the spot. Pakistan reacted fiercely to the border incursion by closing down the border in the Northwest to protest both the killings and the border violation. Also, within the next few days, NATO lostalmost 130 NATO oil containers at various locations, apparently to Taliban militants, who, too,grounded their torching of the trucks and containers to NATO incursion in Pakistan. . Background interviews with a few of the most influential and senior most military commanders reveal that the altercation triggered unusually stiff opposition by the army chief General Ashfaq Kayani, who took up the deaths of his soldiers with Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gillani early October. The General Headquarter also conveyed its rejection of border infringement through the Office of the Defense Representative in the US embassy in Islamabad to Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Viewed against the hard-line that the army took on the issue of cargo supplies, it should be safe to conclude that the resumption ofthe traffic came at a relatively heavy cost, though, and quite a few ripples and ruptures in the US-Pakistan military-to-military relationship that had begun in July 2008 in the Indian Ocean. The Pivotal 'Petraeus Factor:' At the centre of this controversy stands the man who, along with Admiral Mullen,...

The "Petraeus Factor" and Changing Pak-US Military Relations

Anatomy of 'Why NATO Supplies are Back?': Hundreds ofNATO cargo trucks and containers are back on the Pakistani roads, carrying vital military, fuel and food supplies destined for troops based in Afghanistan. These almost 2000 kilometers roads ´ between the Karachi port in the south and the northwestern and southwestern border towns Torkham and Chamman remain the key, shortest link in this crucial supply chain, comprising some 6,500 trucks. This supply chain had come to a grinding haltafter NATO Apache helicopters fired two missiles on a Pakistani security post in the Kurram tribal region on September 30, destroying the post and killing three soldiers on the spot. Pakistan reacted fiercely to the border incursion by closing down the border in the Northwest to protest both the killings and the border violation. Also, within the next few days, NATO lostalmost 130 NATO oil containers at various locations, apparently to Taliban militants, who, too,grounded their torching of the trucks and containers to NATO incursion in Pakistan. . Background interviews with a few of the most influential and senior most military commanders reveal that the altercation triggered unusually stiff opposition by the army chief General Ashfaq Kayani, who took up the deaths of his soldiers with Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gillani early October. The General Headquarter also conveyed its rejection of border infringement through the Office of the Defense Representative in the US embassy in Islamabad to Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Viewed against the hard-line that the army took on the issue of cargo supplies, it should be safe to conclude that the resumption ofthe traffic came at a relatively heavy cost, though, and quite a few ripples and ruptures in the US-Pakistan military-to-military relationship that had begun in July 2008 in the Indian Ocean. The Pivotal 'Petraeus Factor:' At the centre of this controversy stands the man who, along with Admiral Mullen,...

The "Petraeus Factor" and Changing Pak-US Military Relations

Anatomy of 'Why NATO Supplies are Back?': Hundreds ofNATO cargo trucks and containers are back on the Pakistani roads, carrying vital military, fuel and food supplies destined for troops based in Afghanistan. These almost 2000 kilometers roads ´ between the Karachi port in the south and the northwestern and southwestern border towns Torkham and Chamman remain the key, shortest link in this crucial supply chain, comprising some 6,500 trucks. This supply chain had come to a grinding haltafter NATO Apache helicopters fired two missiles on a Pakistani security post in the Kurram tribal region on September 30, destroying the post and killing three soldiers on the spot. Pakistan reacted fiercely to the border incursion by closing down the border in the Northwest to protest both the killings and the border violation. Also, within the next few days, NATO lostalmost 130 NATO oil containers at various locations, apparently to Taliban militants, who, too,grounded their torching of the trucks and containers to NATO incursion in Pakistan. . Background interviews with a few of the most influential and senior most military commanders reveal that the altercation triggered unusually stiff opposition by the army chief General Ashfaq Kayani, who took up the deaths of his soldiers with Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gillani early October. The General Headquarter also conveyed its rejection of border infringement through the Office of the Defense Representative in the US embassy in Islamabad to Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Viewed against the hard-line that the army took on the issue of cargo supplies, it should be safe to conclude that the resumption ofthe traffic came at a relatively heavy cost, though, and quite a few ripples and ruptures in the US-Pakistan military-to-military relationship that had begun in July 2008 in the Indian Ocean. The Pivotal 'Petraeus Factor:' At the centre of this controversy stands the man who, along with Admiral Mullen,...

Is there a Hope for Pakistan?

A Reality Check on Pakistan Future: Pakistan has a population of around 180 million which has trebled over the past 50 years and is slated to grow by another 85 million in the next 20 years, making it roughly 265 million ´ equivalent to adding five more Karachis! In another twenty years the population will be 335 million! With more than half of the population living in towns and cities imagine the lethal tensions over land, water, power, housing, jobs and services. Imagine the scale of investment and materials that will be required in infrastructure and services. The economy will need to grow at a minimum of six per cent per year over the next ten years to generate 36 million new productive jobs to meet the needs of the growing population. Currently, the growth rate is not even keeping pace with the population expansion rate. Moreover, with only 50 per cent of children going to primary school, 25 per cent to secondary school, and only 5 per cent receiving higher education the qualifications required for productive employment and self-employment are just not going to be there. In fact, taking into account the deplorable quality of education available to the overwhelming majority of our children the situation is in fact much worse than what the deplorable figures suggest. Plethora or Problems: The situation in other basic services sectors, indeed in social and gender protection systems and human resource development as a whole, is arguably even more dismal. Roughly 40 per cent of all households have no electricity and 80 per cent of all household energy use comes from firewood, dung and crop residue. Industrial and transport growth without assured energy supplies at affordable prices will be a pipe-dream. Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world as a result of its population growth. Rising consumption expectations in a globally connected world will exacerbate current frustrations. Climate change will further exacerbate water and food...

Afghan Peace and Pakistan’s Options

The endgame for the current Afghanistan crisis is supposedly approaching. Some Taliban leaders have already been flown by NATO to Kabul for talks. Richard Holbrooke, special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan under the Obama administration, has cautioned, however, that these are not negotiations yet, only preliminary contacts. Gen Petraeus, commander-in-chief of the International Security Assistance Force [ISAF] in Afghanistan, claims the force inputs required for his counterinsurgency surge have only now begun to be put in place to degrade, divide and "soften up" the Taliban for the negotiating table. By the time of the next US review of its Af-Pak policy in December he hopes the tide will have turned against the Taliban, forcing them into a much more pragmatic state of mind. Petraeus admits he has to be able to say his policy is working by then. The Taliban as well as the Haqqani and Hekmatyar groups have indicated they will not be amenable to such an approach. Pakistan has signaled the indispensability of its participation for any Afghan peace process. It has underlined the fact that counterinsurgency cannot succeed without its cooperation. The US acknowledges this, but also insists that Pakistan can only participate as a real partner by taking on the Haqqani and Al-Qaeda groups in North Waziristan, and by permitting expanded covert CIA capture/kill operations on its territory. Washington also wants Pakistan to overcome its "obsession" with India's presence in Afghanistan. The US suspects the Pakistan military has little interest in enabling the success of Petraeus on these terms. The recent stand-off between the two countries illustrates a contest of wills. Petraeus signaled he would take an increasingly aggressive stance to compel Pakistani compliance if he sees US soldiers dying because of assistance Pakistan renders to the resistance in Afghanistan through the provision of critical safe havens and training camps as well as rest, recuperation,...

Afghan Peace and Pakistan's Options

The endgame for the current Afghanistan crisis is supposedly approaching. Some Taliban leaders have already been flown by NATO to Kabul for talks. Richard Holbrooke, special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan under the Obama administration, has cautioned, however, that these are not negotiations yet, only preliminary contacts. Gen Petraeus, commander-in-chief of the International Security Assistance Force [ISAF] in Afghanistan, claims the force inputs required for his counterinsurgency surge have only now begun to be put in place to degrade, divide and "soften up" the Taliban for the negotiating table. By the time of the next US review of its Af-Pak policy in December he hopes the tide will have turned against the Taliban, forcing them into a much more pragmatic state of mind. Petraeus admits he has to be able to say his policy is working by then. The Taliban as well as the Haqqani and Hekmatyar groups have indicated they will not be amenable to such an approach. Pakistan has signaled the indispensability of its participation for any Afghan peace process. It has underlined the fact that counterinsurgency cannot succeed without its cooperation. The US acknowledges this, but also insists that Pakistan can only participate as a real partner by taking on the Haqqani and Al-Qaeda groups in North Waziristan, and by permitting expanded covert CIA capture/kill operations on its territory. Washington also wants Pakistan to overcome its "obsession" with India's presence in Afghanistan. The US suspects the Pakistan military has little interest in enabling the success of Petraeus on these terms. The recent stand-off between the two countries illustrates a contest of wills. Petraeus signaled he would take an increasingly aggressive stance to compel Pakistani compliance if he sees US soldiers dying because of assistance Pakistan renders to the resistance in Afghanistan through the provision of critical safe havens and training camps as well as rest, recuperation,...

Afghan Peace and Pakistan's Options

The endgame for the current Afghanistan crisis is supposedly approaching. Some Taliban leaders have already been flown by NATO to Kabul for talks. Richard Holbrooke, special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan under the Obama administration, has cautioned, however, that these are not negotiations yet, only preliminary contacts. Gen Petraeus, commander-in-chief of the International Security Assistance Force [ISAF] in Afghanistan, claims the force inputs required for his counterinsurgency surge have only now begun to be put in place to degrade, divide and "soften up" the Taliban for the negotiating table. By the time of the next US review of its Af-Pak policy in December he hopes the tide will have turned against the Taliban, forcing them into a much more pragmatic state of mind. Petraeus admits he has to be able to say his policy is working by then. The Taliban as well as the Haqqani and Hekmatyar groups have indicated they will not be amenable to such an approach. Pakistan has signaled the indispensability of its participation for any Afghan peace process. It has underlined the fact that counterinsurgency cannot succeed without its cooperation. The US acknowledges this, but also insists that Pakistan can only participate as a real partner by taking on the Haqqani and Al-Qaeda groups in North Waziristan, and by permitting expanded covert CIA capture/kill operations on its territory. Washington also wants Pakistan to overcome its "obsession" with India's presence in Afghanistan. The US suspects the Pakistan military has little interest in enabling the success of Petraeus on these terms. The recent stand-off between the two countries illustrates a contest of wills. Petraeus signaled he would take an increasingly aggressive stance to compel Pakistani compliance if he sees US soldiers dying because of assistance Pakistan renders to the resistance in Afghanistan through the provision of critical safe havens and training camps as well as rest, recuperation,...

The Pakistan and US-NATO Tug of War

NATO Attack & Pakistan Response: Hundreds ofNATO cargo trucks and containers are back on the Pakistani roads, carrying vital military, fuel and food supplies destined for troops based in Afghanistan. These almost 2000 kilometers roads ´ between theKarachiport in the south and the northwestern and southwestern border towns Torkham and Chamman remain the key, shortest link in this crucial supply chain, comprising some 6,500 trucks. This supply chain had come to a grinding haltafter NATO Apache helicopters fired two missiles on a Pakistani security post in the Kurram tribal region on September 30, destroying the post and killing three soldiers on the spot. Pakistanreacted fiercely to the border incursion by closing down the border in the Northwest to protest both the killings and the border violation. Also, within the next few days, NATO lostalmost 130 NATO oil containers at various locations, apparently to Taliban militants, who, too,grounded their torching of the trucks and containers to NATO incursion in Pakistan. Death of the Soldiers ´ Kayani Took the Initial Stance: Background interviews with a few of the most influential and senior most military commanders reveal that the altercation triggered unusually stiff opposition by the army chief General Ashfaq Kayani,who took up the deaths of his soldiers with Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gillani early October. The General Headquarter also conveyed its rejection of border infringement through the Office of the Defense Representative in the US embassy in Islamabad to Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Viewed against the hard-line that the army took on the issue of cargo supplies, it should be safe to conclude that the resumption ofthe traffic came at a relatively heavy cost, though, and quite a few ripples and ruptures in the US-Pakistan military-to-military relationship that had begun in July 2008 in theIndian Ocean. NATO Incursion: Gen. Petraeus Miscalculation or Just an Incident? At...

Conflicting interests

Imtiaz Gul Pakistan-US relations have once again hit a dead end. Confusion and conflict of interests appear to be at the heart of the latest round of tensions between an embattled Pakistani government and a desperate US administration. America philosopher general ´ David Petraeus ´ has upped the ante by dropping strong hints that troops under his command in Afghanistan will do all they can to intercept and kill or neutralize insurgents moving across the porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The stated objective of America latest campaign is to destroy Al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries in the border regions of Pakistan, and to stabilize Afghanistan. A more covert objective appears to be to trigger conditions that could be interpreted as tangible military success ahead of Congressional elections in November and the strategic review in December. That review will presumably focus on whether and how to gradually extricate the bulk of US forces from Afghanistan. Pitched against these short-term American objectives are the self-perceived long-term strategic interests of the Pakistani military establishment. So far, these include resisting American desires for an all-out operation against the militants in and around North Waziristan in Pakistan tribal area. No one contests the fact that North Waziristan, a mountainous terrain spread over roughly 5000 square kilometers, and the eastern Afghan provinces of Paktia and Paktika, offer huge swathes of uncontrolled territory for insurgents– of all shades ´ Afghans, Pakistanis, Arabs, Uzbeks ´ to move back and forth for their militant activities. The question is not what one would wish to see there, but what can in fact be done. North Waziristan currently serves as one of the major staging posts for attacks by al Qaeda-affiliated militants, including the Haqqani network. Several Pakistani militant groups ´ such as Lashkare Taiba and Lashkare Jhangvi ´ are also hiding there, under the protection of the Haqqani network....