A Reality Check on Pakistan Future:

Pakistan has a population of around 180 million which has trebled over the past 50 years and is slated to grow by another 85 million in the next 20 years, making it roughly 265 million ´ equivalent to adding five more Karachis! In another twenty years the population will be 335 million! With more than half of the population living in towns and cities imagine the lethal tensions over land, water, power, housing, jobs and services. Imagine the scale of investment and materials that will be required in infrastructure and services. The economy will need to grow at a minimum of six per cent per year over the next ten years to generate 36 million new productive jobs to meet the needs of the growing population.

Currently, the growth rate is not even keeping pace with the population expansion rate. Moreover, with only 50 per cent of children going to primary school, 25 per cent to secondary school, and only 5 per cent receiving higher education the qualifications required for productive employment and self-employment are just not going to be there. In fact, taking into account the deplorable quality of education available to the overwhelming majority of our children the situation is in fact much worse than what the deplorable figures suggest.

Plethora or Problems:

The situation in other basic services sectors, indeed in social and gender protection systems and human resource development as a whole, is arguably even more dismal. Roughly 40 per cent of all households have no electricity and 80 per cent of all household energy use comes from firewood, dung and crop residue. Industrial and transport growth without assured energy supplies at affordable prices will be a pipe-dream. Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world as a result of its population growth. Rising consumption expectations in a globally connected world will exacerbate current frustrations. Climate change will further exacerbate water and food shortages which, if not addressed on a national and regional scale, will massively undermine the country growth and productive employment prospects. It will threaten the peace within Pakistan and with neighbors.

Already Poor; Floods Made People Poorer:

Around 110 million of Pakistan population lives on $2 a day which may be technically above poverty line but apart from a bare, miserable and uncertain survival it allows for little. Even before the recent floods it was estimated that due to inflation in general and food inflation in particular roughly seven per cent of the population (over 12 million) who had barely risen above the poverty line during the previous decade sank below it again.

In the aftermath of the floods millions more will sink into this pitiless pit where no rights or hope can exist. Transparency International report that Pakistan is today more corrupt than ever explains why there is a growing disillusionment with democracy among the youth. The horror stories one hears about brazenly deliberate corruption at an unimaginably massive scale are soul-destroying.

The youth, accordingly, look for a strong but just hand, even an Islamic fundamentalist hand, to help them out of the pit they find themselves dug in. They do not want to be dependent. They are willing to work their butts off. They need to be enabled and given a reasonably level playing field. That is a fundamental right that is denied them because they are not a priority. And then we wonder: Why do they have such violent thoughts? Who is brainwashing them? Are they vulnerable to recruitment by bad guys? Well, ask them who the bad guys are. And the bitter irony is that these betrayed young people adore their country.

Youth of Pakistan: A Hope?

A riveting study of Pakistan ‘next generation’ (18 to 29 year-olds) compiled by a whole range of Pakistani scholars, experts, activists etc, with the help of contributions from over a thousand young Pakistanis from all over Pakistan and a range of backgrounds, funded by the British Council, depicts a grim but not hopeless picture of Pakistan future. Provided the right priorities and policy measures are urgently put in place. According to the study, the ‘next generation’ sees injustice as the prime reason for violence and terror in Pakistan.

But according to the leaders of the west their security is threatened by terrorism the root causes of which are not even open to discussion. To suggest that injustice might have something to do with terrorism is seen as an attempt to condone it. Their acolytes among the political and power elite in Pakistan have a similar distaste for any discussion on injustice or other root causes of violence and terror. These include, according to the next generation, poor economic conditions and lack of education and awareness.

The next generation study talks about a window of opportunity of a ‘demographic dividend’ for Pakistan between the 1990s and 2045. During this period the potentially productively employed youth as a proportion of the whole population will be at a maximum. Hence if all the enabling policies are put in place the country can receive a massive ‘one-time boost’ over several decades. This could be a real socio-economic game-changer in terms of increased economic growth, savings, investment in children and social transformation. The East Asian Miracle was largely a result of exploiting this dividend. Conversely, a failure to avail of these opportunities could lead to a ‘demographic disaster’ involving spiraling poverty, increased crime and conflict, and a ‘crippled next generation’. The stakes are extraordinarily high.

A Demographic Waste:

We have already wasted two decades of the demographic window of opportunity because, among many reasons, little progress has been made towards achieving Millennium Development Goals. The population has not been stabilized because women have yet to enter the work force in significant numbers. Health and education remain woefully under-resourced. As a result, we are not even poised to begin moving towards a demographic dividend. On the contrary, we are headed towards a demographic disaster. Failure to take appropriate action will set us back for decades to come. This is euphemism for ¿State Failure–.

So whatever our current security or other pre-occupations may be, they pale by comparison to the demographic threat we face, and time is running out to save our country from an impending absolute disaster. Will the present government surprise us and do what is essential starting NOW? It does not look likely. The government and civil society, of course, could have a deeply satisfying experience empowering the next generation and rendering the kind of transforming, indeed life-saving, service no one has yet provided the country.

The Pakistani State Must Act Swiftly:

The necessary measures are by and large known and their urgency is obvious in light of the dire implications of not taking them immediately. But this urgency has not yet translated into priority which is the measure of our tragedy. Indeed, much of the elite, including their next generation, have their exit options ready. The facts are pronouncing a death sentence upon us as a society and as a nation. Denial is betrayal. It is already very late. But, maybe, not too late. Blame-game time is over. All of us must now be in the same game.