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Analysis of May 11, 2013 General Elections: Pakistan’s RIGHT Swing or Vote for Reform?

On May 11, Pakistan spoke again. This time it is predominantly for centrist or right of the centre and religio-political parties. Statistics is mind boggling and explains how the unprecedented turnout (over 60 per cent) translated in more than 50 percent of the vote going to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif Pakistan Muslim League - PML-N - (1.40 million ), giving him more than two-thirds majority in the most populous Punjab province, and near absolute majority in the centre. Former cricket star Imran Khan Pakistan Tehrike-e-Insaf (PTI ) emerged as the virtual second force with slightly over 8 million votes), edging out the Pakistan Peoples– Party (PPP) -once dubbed as the only national party - which could muster 6.5 million votes ´ its worst performance in three decades. Interestingly, two factions of the Islamist, pro-Taliban groups - Jamiat Uleme-e-Islam - JUI-F received 1.5 million votes, while Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) ´ once a coalition partner of JUI-F, could attract only about 896,718 voters across Pakistan, the largest numbers falling in its favour in the northwestern regions. The ethno-political Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) ´ representing Urdu speaking immigrants from India - managed about 2.36 million votes, mostly in Karachi and Hyderabad, the second largest city of the southern Sindh. Given a 5-10 percent margin of error (largely because of incomplete or contested results of some constituencies) centrist and right-wing parties appear to have bagged roughly 25 million of the 86 million registered voters. If counted together with most of the vote cast in favour of independents, in Pakistan political capital of Punjab, in particular, the percentage of such vote may jump to well over 70 percent. In terms of seats, too, the parties have claimed more than 75 per cent seats in the 272 National Assembly. Does this imply Pakistan is slipping rightwards? Or is it simply a vote reflecting the craving for change in status quo? Certain indicators probably speak for...

Analysis of May 11, 2013 General Elections: Pakistan's RIGHT Swing or Vote for Reform?

On May 11, Pakistan spoke again. This time it is predominantly for centrist or right of the centre and religio-political parties. Statistics is mind boggling and explains how the unprecedented turnout (over 60 per cent) translated in more than 50 percent of the vote going to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif Pakistan Muslim League - PML-N - (1.40 million ), giving him more than two-thirds majority in the most populous Punjab province, and near absolute majority in the centre. Former cricket star Imran Khan Pakistan Tehrike-e-Insaf (PTI ) emerged as the virtual second force with slightly over 8 million votes), edging out the Pakistan Peoples– Party (PPP) -once dubbed as the only national party - which could muster 6.5 million votes ´ its worst performance in three decades. Interestingly, two factions of the Islamist, pro-Taliban groups - Jamiat Uleme-e-Islam - JUI-F received 1.5 million votes, while Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) ´ once a coalition partner of JUI-F, could attract only about 896,718 voters across Pakistan, the largest numbers falling in its favour in the northwestern regions. The ethno-political Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) ´ representing Urdu speaking immigrants from India - managed about 2.36 million votes, mostly in Karachi and Hyderabad, the second largest city of the southern Sindh. Given a 5-10 percent margin of error (largely because of incomplete or contested results of some constituencies) centrist and right-wing parties appear to have bagged roughly 25 million of the 86 million registered voters. If counted together with most of the vote cast in favour of independents, in Pakistan political capital of Punjab, in particular, the percentage of such vote may jump to well over 70 percent. In terms of seats, too, the parties have claimed more than 75 per cent seats in the 272 National Assembly. Does this imply Pakistan is slipping rightwards? Or is it simply a vote reflecting the craving for change in status quo? Certain indicators probably speak for...

Analysis of May 11, 2013 General Elections: Pakistan's RIGHT Swing or Vote for Reform?

On May 11, Pakistan spoke again. This time it is predominantly for centrist or right of the centre and religio-political parties. Statistics is mind boggling and explains how the unprecedented turnout (over 60 per cent) translated in more than 50 percent of the vote going to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif Pakistan Muslim League - PML-N - (1.40 million ), giving him more than two-thirds majority in the most populous Punjab province, and near absolute majority in the centre. Former cricket star Imran Khan Pakistan Tehrike-e-Insaf (PTI ) emerged as the virtual second force with slightly over 8 million votes), edging out the Pakistan Peoples– Party (PPP) -once dubbed as the only national party - which could muster 6.5 million votes ´ its worst performance in three decades. Interestingly, two factions of the Islamist, pro-Taliban groups - Jamiat Uleme-e-Islam - JUI-F received 1.5 million votes, while Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) ´ once a coalition partner of JUI-F, could attract only about 896,718 voters across Pakistan, the largest numbers falling in its favour in the northwestern regions. The ethno-political Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) ´ representing Urdu speaking immigrants from India - managed about 2.36 million votes, mostly in Karachi and Hyderabad, the second largest city of the southern Sindh. Given a 5-10 percent margin of error (largely because of incomplete or contested results of some constituencies) centrist and right-wing parties appear to have bagged roughly 25 million of the 86 million registered voters. If counted together with most of the vote cast in favour of independents, in Pakistan political capital of Punjab, in particular, the percentage of such vote may jump to well over 70 percent. In terms of seats, too, the parties have claimed more than 75 per cent seats in the 272 National Assembly. Does this imply Pakistan is slipping rightwards? Or is it simply a vote reflecting the craving for change in status quo? Certain indicators probably speak for...

Monthly Data Sheet – April 2013

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Monthly Report – April 2013

April witnessed considerable up surge in violence across Pakistan. Ethno-political violence in Karachi, religio-terrorism in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and nationalist-separatist violence in Balochistan, meanwhile continued unabated. The deadly wave of target killing in Karachi, started in the last week of March 2013, continue to mount death toll during April. The deadly wave left almost 100 persons dead (due to target killing) during the current month. Most of the persons perished in Karachi during April in different circumstances. The data collected throughten newspapers that CRSS uses as the source, suggests that some 533 people lost their lives in 244 incidents of violence across the country (for details see data sheet). The violent clashes also left 520 people injured only in April. A concise look into the casualty figures underlines that the civilians remained the major target of violent actors, as a result of various acts of violence and terror in Pakistan. As noted in pie chart I below, civilians were 46 per cent (64 percent in last month) of the total dead in April. As a whole 241 civilians were killed in different circumstances during the month. Moreover, the data suggests that the militants fighting against the state remained the second major target i.e. 38 percent (199) of the total dead. Clashes also left 80 security forces– personnel (16 percent of total deaths) dead and these were mostly recorded in insurgency infested areas of FATA, Karachi and Baluchistan. Furthermore, during April, two CIA operated drone strikes were reported in different areas of FATA, leaving as many as 13 suspected militants dead. Meanwhile, continuing their sabotage campaign to demolish state infrastructure, militants blew up five state run and private schools and 38 other sort of infrastructure in different parts of FATA, Baluchistan, Sindh and KP during the course of month. In contrary to preceding months, in April again,...

Weekly Data Sheet – April 26 – May 02, 2013

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Weekly Report – April 26 – May 02, 2013

The raging wave of violence substantially escalated across Pakistan during the current week. Meanwhile, the spate of ethno-political violence in the economic hub, Karachi, increased during the week, wherein 45 persons (27 in the last week) were perished. Also, the wave of bomb blasts across the country, spree of target killings and the recovery of mutilated dead bodies-continued to mount death toll during the week. The data collected through10 newspapers that CRSS uses as the source, indicates that as many as 99 persons lost their lives as a result of 74 violent incidents across the country during the reported week (for detailssee data sheet).The violent incidents also left 238 people injured. As in the case of preceding week, civilians were the major target of the ongoing spate of violence across Pakistan during the current week, wherein civilians accounted foralmost 80 percent of the total death toll during the course of week. Numerically, 79 civilians were killed in violent clashes of various kinds across the country. This week the number of fatalities ofsecurity forces was nine and militants were 12. Furthermore, no CIA operated drone strike was carried out during the week. Meanwhile three sabotage campaigns were carried out by the militants to demolish state infrastructure and undermine stability. Militants blew up four election offices in KP, FATA and Balochistan, a railway track in Sindh and three schools and two Hujras of ANP workers in KP. In two sectarian attacks a member of Sunni Tehreek was killed in Sindh this week. Moreover, the loss of lives due to target killings slightly decreased (31 percent of the total dead against last week 32 percent) during the current week. Overall, 39 percent of the total violent attacks wereoftarget killingin nature(seethe pie chart below). Furthermore, data underlines that of the total 25 incidents of target killings; 62 percent took place in Karachi alone, decimating 19 persons (61 percent of the total dead in target...

Pakistan’s Baluchistan Province under Siege

Pakistan's area-wise largest southwestern Balochistan has been in the grip of a bloody secessionist, ethnic Baloch-led insurgency for decades. The latest insurgency began in August 2006 with the mysterious killing of a tribal chief and former governor Nawab Akbar Bugti. This sparked a new cycle of insurgency that continues to date and has claimed hundreds of lives. Nationalist separatists have also been warning political parties and people at large to stay away from the May 11 elections. The province which was known to the world for its nautral resources today faces a ruthless insurgency, compounded by an abysmal governance and an extremely indifferent civilian and military ruling elite now a days. The breakdown of law and order in the province amounted to ultimate failure of the provincial government which, according to an October 2012 ruling by the apex Supreme Court, had lost 'constitutional authority' to continue. Balochistan has also seen a systematic terror campaing targetting shia-Hazara Muslim community, resulting in deaths of hundreds of innocent shia Muslims. General Introduction to Balochistan The population of Pakistan area-wise largest province stands at slightly over 13 Million (according to 2011 estimates, daily The News, April 05, 2012). Reeling from a security crisis and plagued by misgovernance, Balochistan currently faces multiple socio-political challenges. Decades of socio-political neglect, economic injustices, under-development and the tribal make-up of the society has turned it into Pakistan 'soft belly' ´ reeling from the consequences of a raging Baloch insurgency ( both subversion of utility infrastructure as well as kill and dump pro-government Baloch leaders, the military brutal response to it (kill and dump) , wave of anti-shia sectarian violence (that spiked in 2012 with hundreds of target-killings), abysmal mis-governance and rampant crime under political patronage. The apex Court, in an October 2012 ruling on the Law and Order...

Pakistan's Baluchistan Province under Siege

Pakistan's area-wise largest southwestern Balochistan has been in the grip of a bloody secessionist, ethnic Baloch-led insurgency for decades. The latest insurgency began in August 2006 with the mysterious killing of a tribal chief and former governor Nawab Akbar Bugti. This sparked a new cycle of insurgency that continues to date and has claimed hundreds of lives. Nationalist separatists have also been warning political parties and people at large to stay away from the May 11 elections. The province which was known to the world for its nautral resources today faces a ruthless insurgency, compounded by an abysmal governance and an extremely indifferent civilian and military ruling elite now a days. The breakdown of law and order in the province amounted to ultimate failure of the provincial government which, according to an October 2012 ruling by the apex Supreme Court, had lost 'constitutional authority' to continue. Balochistan has also seen a systematic terror campaing targetting shia-Hazara Muslim community, resulting in deaths of hundreds of innocent shia Muslims. General Introduction to Balochistan The population of Pakistan area-wise largest province stands at slightly over 13 Million (according to 2011 estimates, daily The News, April 05, 2012). Reeling from a security crisis and plagued by misgovernance, Balochistan currently faces multiple socio-political challenges. Decades of socio-political neglect, economic injustices, under-development and the tribal make-up of the society has turned it into Pakistan 'soft belly' ´ reeling from the consequences of a raging Baloch insurgency ( both subversion of utility infrastructure as well as kill and dump pro-government Baloch leaders, the military brutal response to it (kill and dump) , wave of anti-shia sectarian violence (that spiked in 2012 with hundreds of target-killings), abysmal mis-governance and rampant crime under political patronage. The apex Court, in an October 2012 ruling on the Law and Order...