On May 11, Pakistan spoke again. This time it is predominantly for centrist or right of the centre and religio-political parties. Statistics is mind boggling and explains how the unprecedented turnout (over 60 per cent) translated in more than 50 percent of the vote going to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif Pakistan Muslim League – PML-N – (1.40 million ), giving him more than two-thirds majority in the most populous Punjab province, and near absolute majority in the centre.
Former cricket star Imran Khan Pakistan Tehrike-e-Insaf (PTI ) emerged as the virtual second force with slightly over 8 million votes), edging out the Pakistan Peoples– Party (PPP) -once dubbed as the only national party – which could muster 6.5 million votes ´ its worst performance in three decades.
Interestingly, two factions of the Islamist, pro-Taliban groups – Jamiat Uleme-e-Islam – JUI-F received 1.5 million votes, while Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) ´ once a coalition partner of JUI-F, could attract only about 896,718 voters across Pakistan, the largest numbers falling in its favour in the northwestern regions. The ethno-political Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) ´ representing Urdu speaking immigrants from India – managed about 2.36 million votes, mostly in Karachi and Hyderabad, the second largest city of the southern Sindh.
Given a 5-10 percent margin of error (largely because of incomplete or contested results of some constituencies) centrist and right-wing parties appear to have bagged roughly 25 million of the 86 million registered voters. If counted together with most of the vote cast in favour of independents, in Pakistan political capital of Punjab, in particular, the percentage of such vote may jump to well over 70 percent. In terms of seats, too, the parties have claimed more than 75 per cent seats in the 272 National Assembly.
Does this imply Pakistan is slipping rightwards? Or is it simply a vote reflecting the craving for change in status quo?
Certain indicators probably speak for the latter and also explain Pakistan shifting political dynamics; President Asif Ali Zardari move to include former military president Pervez Musharraf ally Pakistan Muslim League ´ PML (Q) ´ in the ruling coalition most probably weighed heavily on their parties. Majority of PPP big wigs ´ all three sons of ex-premier Yusuf Raza Gilani, sons and scions of the Punjab governor, former prime minister Raja Pervez Ashraf, many ministers, regional presidents (except Sindh which is the traditional PPP stronghold) – In 2008, the PPP had won 17 seats in Northern and Central Punjab. In May 2013, practically none.
Secondly, devout PPP voters, it seems, punished their party also for embracing PML-Q ´ which Benazir Bhutto and her associates had always denounced as Killer-League for all the conspiracies that it believed the ‘Kings Party’ hatched against PPP in league with Musharraf.
Through their vote, people at large clearly spurned symbols of opportunism and a decadent political culture that has for decades ruled and ruined Pakistan. Former chief ministers and ministers Manzoor Watoo, Saifullah Khan, and several leading families across Pakistan were treated with contempt by an increasingly conscious voter.
Thirdly, Imran Khan PTI ´ often derided by opponents as a rightist party – bagged massive vote in Punjab but obviously failed in outnumbering the PML-N which does enjoy massive support at the grassroots level. The party undoubtedly emerged as the real third major force, displacing the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), which had occupied this position since 1988. It certainly rode the agenda of change, and managed to mobilize millions of educated, middle class, lower middle class youth in particular.
The majority of nearly 47 percent of the country youth between 18-37years , it seems, who thronged polling stations to cast their vote , particularly in Punjab and KP, swung the pendulum in favour of the PTI, reflecting a clear rejection of, and fatigue with, the status quo.
This also reflected the common man fatigue with the discriminatory status quo that has sharpened socio-economic divisions to the disadvantage of teeming millions in Pakistan.
Fourthly, most of the voters in Punjab sided with the Sharifs, who have dominated the political landscape of Punjab since early 1980s, when former dictator General Ziaul Haq handpicked Nawaz Sharif to become a minister and then the chief minister of the province.
Most Sindhis, be electing more than 55 percent of PPP candidates, essentially stuck to Bhuttos as well as descendents of spiritual dynasties (Makhdooms/Peers) in the absence of an acceptable alternative.
Most ethnic Pashtoons in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa voted sort of overwhelmingly for Khan reformist PTI. This way the voter in KPK proved that they are not beholden to any particular personality or party (In 1993 the majority went to PPP, in 1997 to PML-N, in 2002 to MMA, in 2008 to ANP). Sindh, on the contrary remains firmly in the clutches of the landed aristocracy, with the majority bound through kinship and patronage as well as to blind spiritual following.
The southwestern Balochistan province once again ended up politically and ethnically polarized, making almost every party represented in the provincial assembly a claimant to power. The MQM, as feared, conquered Karachi again with an unmistakable warning from its chief Altaf Hussein and leaders that ‘Karachi belongs to us and we will do whatever it takes to retain power there.’
The 2013 mandate indeed marks a huge step forward in Pakistan wobbly democratic transition but has deepened the ethnic divisions further, with mainstream parties shrinking to their traditional strongholds. This election also underscores a big vote against the status quo, which it appears, is under threat by PTI nationalist-reformist agenda. At the same time, the vote has swung to the right e.g. in 2008, the MMA (without Jamaate Islami) received about 2.2 percent , while both parties have secured roughly five percent seats in 2013, but taken together with PML-N and PTI, the right seems to be in ascendency. But if both PML-N and PTI are viewed as reformist parties, given more to accountability, rule of law, transparency, their rise should not worry us at all. Both believe in reforming the country through more aggressive policies focused on economic revival and regional commercial linkages.
Sharif olive branch to India, in line with his manifesto, has gone down well all over, generating goodwill messages out of Washington, London and many other important capitals. Coming months will witness as to whether the mighty military establishment of Pakistan accommodates Sharif reformist agenda that also includes mending fences with India.