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Pakistan–Afghanistan Trade Disruptions: At What Cost to Livelihoods and Regional Stability?
Date: 16, Jan ,2026 By freezing cross-border trade while managing a refugee influx, Pakistan and Afghanistan have created a perfect storm of economic pressure and humanitarian quandaries. This piece explores how short-term political choices are inflicting long-term damage. For two neighbours that routinely endorse connectivity, stability, and shared prosperity, Pakistan and Afghanistan have taken a rather unconventional route: freezing the very trade corridors that make those aspirations even remotely attainable. Both countries share one of the most economically interdependent borders in South and Central Asia. For decades, bilateral trade and Afghan transit trade have supported millions of livelihoods—from farmers and transporters to port workers, exporters, and small traders. Today, that lifeline stands severely constricted at a time when both economies are already under intense strain. The costs are high and grave. Pakistan’s annual exports to Afghanistan are valued at approximately USD 1.5 billion. A three-month disruption has translated into losses of nearly USD 375 million for Pakistani exporters. Exports routed via Afghanistan to Central Asia, worth around USD 900 million annually, have suffered an additional USD 225 million loss over the same period. Afghanistan, meanwhile, has incurred losses of roughly USD 200 million in exports to Pakistan and USD 75 million in exports to India via Wagah. Ports and logistics infrastructure have also been directly affected. Afghan transit trade through Karachi typically involves 40,000 to 45,000 containers annually, generating close to USD 160 million each year for Pakistan through transport, insurance, port handling, and allied services. The current closure has already resulted in an estimated USD 40 million loss in just three months. More than 10,000 containers of Afghan transit cargo remain stranded inside Pakistan, exposed to demurrage and detention charges of around USD 120 per container per day. For Afghan...
Quiet Cuts, Big Consequences: The State of U.S. WPS Policy
America’s disinvestment in proven peacebuilding is a global liability, undermining stability, alliances, and a more secure future for all. It is often easier to dismantle policies when they concern women. They are more readily dismissed as optional, ideological, or symbolic rather than as core instruments of national security. That assumption helps explain how the United States has been able to quietly hollow out its own Women, Peace and Security framework without formally repealing it. In 2017, the Women, Peace and Security Act was passed with rare bipartisan support. It recognised a hard truth backed by decades of evidence: peace processes that include women last longer, cost less, and are more resilient. The law required the US government to integrate this framework across diplomacy, defence, and development. Eight years later, the law still exists, but the capacity to implement it does not. According to The Elimination of the U.S. Women, Peace and Security Capacity at the Department of State, a January 2026 policy report by Kayla McGill and Rachel Wein at New Lines Institute, the State Department dismantled the Office of Global Women’s Issues between January and July 2025. More than 65 expert staff were dismissed, and active programmes operating in over 50 countries were suspended. The annual savings were roughly $15 million. The long-term costs will almost certainly run into the billions. This matters because prevention is cheaper than reaction. Research consistently shows that peace agreements with women’s participation are around 35 percent more likely to endure beyond 15 years. Early warning systems that track gender-based violence often detect instability before traditional security indicators do. Removing this expertise does not make the system leaner. It makes it blind. McGill and Wein describe this strategy as “impoundment by elimination. Congress has not repealed the law. Funds have not been explicitly refused. Instead, the offices and staff required...
Pakistan and the Renewable Dilemma
Date: 14, Jan ,2026 Lessons from the Quran for a Green and Ethical Energy Transition By Engineer Arshad H. Abbasi and Engineer Musa Arshad Abbasi Pakistan, sits atop immense solar, wind, and water potential, yet continues to rely on polluting fuels. This article explores how the Quran anticipated renewable energy solutions centuries ago, contrasts global progress with Pakistan’s stagnation, and calls for a fusion of ethical governance, technological innovation, and spiritual insight to ignite a national clean energy renaissance. In the past decade, solar technology has undergone a metamorphosis. The core components of a solar system—photovoltaic (PV) panels that capture sunlight, inverters that convert DC to usable AC power, mounting structures, batteries for backup, and digital meters—have all become compact, intelligent, and affordable. A modern inverter is no longer just a converter; it’s a smart brain that communicates with the grid, learns consumption patterns, and manages energy through artificial intelligence. Batteries, once bulky and expensive, are now sleek, powerful, and long-lasting. The average cost of generating electricity from solar has fallen below even the cheapest fossil fuels in many countries. In India, for instance, wind power tariffs are as low as $0.032 per kilowatt-hour, and hybrid solar-wind systems operate around $0.04–$0.06 per kWh, even with storage. In Pakistan, meanwhile, Thar coal projects—celebrated as a national success—produce electricity at nearly 8.5 cents per kWh in early stages and 4–7 cents later. The evidence is clear: the sun now outcompetes the coal buried beneath our feet. And yet, in the land created in the name of Islam, whose very name Pakistan means “Land of the Pure,” purity has vanished from every sphere of national life. Everything in Pakistan today—except Islam’s name—is impure: governance by corruption, institutions by greed, and policy by hypocrisy. While the world races toward clean, renewable energy,...
Algorithms of Extremism: Terrorist Influence in Online Spaces
By Shahana Naseer In an era where digital platforms shape perceptions faster than institutions can respond, terrorism has found new pathways to influence, recruit, and radicalize. We are living in a digital age where internet access has become nearly universal, and the digital ecosystem is increasingly shaped by algorithms, trends, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity. In this environment, terrorist organizations have learned to exploit digital spaces to advance their ideological, political, and operational objectives. These groups often manipulate local grievances and societal fault lines to disseminate disinformation against the state, using digital platforms to amplify distrust and polarization. Before the rise of digital media, terrorist organizations primarily relied on traditional platforms such as newspapers and television to propagate their narratives. However, the presence of editorial oversight and regulatory mechanisms limited the reach and impact of extremist messaging. With the rapid expansion of digital media, the dynamics of radicalization have shifted significantly. The accessibility, affordability, and anonymity of the internet have intensified the risks of online radicalization and cyberterrorism, enabling extremist content to circulate with minimal gatekeeping. Social media has emerged as a central tool in this transformation. Platform algorithms often prioritize engagement, inadvertently amplifying content that resonates with emotionally charged or ideologically aligned audiences. Terrorist groups exploit this mechanism to reinforce radical worldviews and encourage self-radicalization, particularly among digitally native youth. These platforms allow for instant dissemination of videos, infographics, and live streams, which are used to glorify violence, instill fear, attract recruits, and promote ideological replication. The psychological appeal of extremist narratives plays a critical role in online recruitment. Themes such as...
Weaponizing the border and trade won’t help
By Imtiaz Gul Vicious propaganda from certain Afghan and Indian social media channels are currently spewing venom against Pakistan. As part of this, even some Afghan ministers and officials are blurting out and stoking anti-Pakistan sentiment via Tolo TV and other channels. Similarly, the border has never remained sealed for so long for virtually all forms of traffic. The prolonged closure of major crossings — Chaman, Kharlachi, Torkham and Ghulam Khan — has frozen trade arteries that sustain millions on both sides. Let us have a look at the data; Pakistan is forfeiting at least Rs2.5 billion every month in tax revenues beside obvious loss in export revenues worth hundreds of millions of dollars. In the July-December period of 2025, Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan plummeted by 54 per cent to $243 million as against $526 million for the same period in 2024. The FBR had earned about Rs24 billion in July-December 2024 (off-trade via KP alone) but this figure dramatically dropped to Rs13 billion in the last six months of 2025 – a major blow to exports of kinno, cement, wheat flour, construction materials and pharmaceuticals. Import tax revenue via KP also dropped by nearly 45. Transit trade volume – through Pakistan to Afghanistan and onward to Central Asia – collapsed to 4,000 in 2025 since the border shutdown ( down from 100,000 annually until 2023. Containers via KP counted around 14000 in 2025. vehicles in the second half of 2024 and has dropped further on October 11. Transit trade with Uzbekistan — once involving about 10,000 trucks a year — has effectively ground to a halt. Several thousand containers, including also those carrying humanitarian goods, now sit idle between Karachi and the border, tying up capital, inventory and livelihoods. The human cost is most acute in border districts. Communities within a 70km radius on both sides — already economically vulnerable — have been hit hardest by what is now the fourth closure this year. Thousands of truck...
Border Closure Brings Down Terrorist Violence
Date: 31, Dec ,2025 CRSS Annual Security Report 2025 Pakistan’s Security Landscape - 2025 | Overall Trends: Pakistan recorded a significant drop in cross-border terrorist attacks and violence-linked fatalities after it closed down the border to Afghanistan on October 11. Terrorist attacks went down by almost 17% in December, preceded by 9% decline in November. Terrorist violence-linked fatalities among civilians and security officials also fell in the last quarter of 2025, by nearly 4% and 19% each in November and December, data collected by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) as part of its Annual Security Report 2025 With an almost 34% surge in overall violence, the year 2025 went by as the most violent year for Pakistan in a decade. The country has suffered a sustained escalation in violence for five consecutive years since 2021, coinciding with the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan; with almost 38% in 2021, over 15% in 2022, 56% in 2023, nearly 67% in 2024, and 34% in 2025.As many as 3417 violence-linked fatalities and 2134 injuries among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws resulted from 1272 incidents of violence; terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism operations. 2025 marked another grim year for Pakistan’s security landscape.The comparative data for 2024 and 2025 reveals a sharp escalation in terrorism and counter-terrorism linked violence nationwide, with fatalities rising from 2555 in 2024 to 3417 in 2025, marking an increase of 862 deaths, or a roughly 34% year-on-year surge in violence. The most significant surge in violence was recorded in KP, where the fatalities rose from 1620 in 2024 to 2331 in 2025, an absolute increase of 711 deaths, accounting for over 82% of the net national rise and marking almost a 44% year-on-year surge in violence in the province. Balochistan also had an upward trend, with fatalities increasing from 787 to 956; an additional 169 deaths, which are nearly 22% higher than the previous year’s...
From Master Plan Violations to Environmental Crimes: Urban Governance Failures and Emerging Accountability Imperative
Date:31Dec,2025 A report by Engineer Arshad H Abbasi Executive Summary In Pakistan, systematic violations of urban master plans—where parks, green belts, graveyards, and natural drainage channels are converted into commercial plots—have created significant environmental and public health risks. These breaches, often facilitated by collusion between civic authorities and developers, contribute to floods, heat stress, and declining groundwater levels, highlighting governance failures with both ecological and humanitarian consequences. Engineer Arshad H. Abbasi argues that the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) must expand its mandate beyond financial corruption. Leveraging technology, including satellite imagery, GIS mapping, and online monitoring, NAB can conduct forensic audits of land use, identify illegal alterations, and hold officials and developers accountable. Such interventions are essential to restore public trust, safeguard urban ecosystems, and prevent further environmental degradation. Emerging international frameworks, including the ICC’s 2025 policy on environmental harm, underscore the growing recognition of ecological destruction as a matter of accountability. Proactive enforcement and technological integration in urban governance are crucial for Pakistan to address both the environmental and institutional dimensions of urban corruption. Analysis The National Accountability Bureau (NAB) was conceived as the apex guardian of Pakistan’s integrity against the corrosion of white-collar crime. It was meant to be the sword and shield of public accountability, the institution entrusted to investigate, prosecute, and prevent corruption, embezzlement, and abuse of authority.1 Over two decades later, however, Pakistan stands at the 135th position out of 180 countries on the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) 2024, slipping two ranks since 2023. At the same time, poverty has climbed to nearly 45 percent, leaving half the population economically vulnerable and...
Experts Call for Renewed Dialogue, Humanitarian Easing, and Stability in Pakistan-Afghanistan Ties
Date: 31, Dec ,2025 Religious scholars, tribal elders, and policy experts from Pakistan and Afghanistan called for an urgent revival of dialogue, practical confidence-building measures, and humanitarian easing of border restrictions during the Beyond Boundaries dialogue on Exploring Pathways to Peace, Security and Stability in the Pakistan-Afghanistan Region, organised by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Participants noted that border communities, patients, students, traders, and wage earners continue to bear the heaviest burden of prolonged closures. They stressed that despite political strains, the peoples of both countries largely wish for stability and normalcy, and that sustained restrictions risk creating an environment conducive to misperception and exploitation by destabilising elements. Former Afghan Envoy Abdul Hakim Mujahid stated that recent gatherings of religious scholars in Kabul and Islamabad demonstrated broad support for dialogue and mutual understanding. He emphasised that such platforms provide an opportunity to rebuild trust and should be strengthened rather than disrupted by political tensions. Afghan scholar Abdul Waheed Waheed observed that the primary victims of border closures are ordinary citizens who rely on routine mobility for health, education, and livelihoods. He said that public sentiment in Afghanistan continues to favour improved relations with Pakistan, and cautioned that economic strain and prolonged bottlenecks risk giving space to actors who thrive on hardship and grievance. Dr Samia Raheel Qazi said it remained encouraging that religious and tribal stakeholders on both sides consistently supported engagement. She stressed that this spirit of cordiality should not be allowed to erode due to unrest driven by certain groups and called for enhancing the involvement of track II actors. Professor Dr Rashid Ahmad of Peshawar University argued that delays in addressing contentious matters between Pakistan and...
Punitive Economic Measures and Pak-Afghan Trade and Transit Disruptions Fuel Regional Instability, Experts Warn
Exclusionary economic measures cause prolonged disruptions in Pakistan-Afghanistan trade and transit, and generate wide-ranging economic and social consequences across the region. Uncertainty, rather than cost alone, has emerged as the most damaging factor, eroding livelihoods, weakening regional connectivity, and placing disproportionate strain on border communities between the two countries. These concerns were raised at the “Exploring Pathways to Pakistan-Afghanistan Trade and Economic Connectivity” dialogue, organised by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) as part of its Beyond Boundaries initiative. The dialogue convened policymakers, customs officials, business leaders, and economic experts from Pakistan and Afghanistan to reflect on the evolving trade dynamics and their broader regional implications. Khan Jan Alokozay, Co-President of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI), emphasised that peace in the region is inseparable from economic stability, underscoring that robust and predictable trade forms the foundation of durable bilateral relations. Without continuity in trade, he cautioned, broader objectives of peace and regional integration would remain fragile. Fazal Moqeem Khan, former President of the Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry, called for the establishment of cross-border economic zones to institutionalise trade and transit cooperation - with manufacturers on both sides collaborating and heightening joint stakes - and move beyond ad hoc arrangements. He warned that isolated or one-sided approaches to trade are not viable and ultimately weaken both economies. Highlighting the human cost of trade disruptions, Mujeeb Shinwari, President of the All Torkham Custom Clearing Agents Association, noted that border communities bear the brunt of repeated closures, as their economic lifelines depend directly on cross-border trade. He observed that persistent disruptions have crippled local economies and...
Himalayan Glacial Degradation Presents a Transboundary Environmental Security Risk to Pakistan: An Open Letter to the Deputy Prime Minister
Addressed to the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, this open letter by Engineer Arshad Abbasi analyses accelerated Himalayan glacial degradation as a transboundary environmental security risk with direct implications for Pakistan’s water, food, energy, and economic systems. Drawing on climate science, judicial findings, and principles of international environmental law, it argues that continued diplomatic inaction undermines due diligence obligations and state responsibility. The letter calls for the integration of environmental security into Pakistan’s foreign policy and legal strategy as a matter of constitutional duty and international compliance. An Open and Formal Letter to Senator Muhammad Ishaq Dar Deputy Prime Minister of Pakistan Minister for Foreign Affairs of Pakistan Subject- An Oath of Office Is an Oath of Survival: You are Custodian of Pakistan’s Water, Energy, Economic and Food Security Honourable Deputy Prime Minister, There are moments in the life of a state when silence ceases to be neutral. When restraint becomes retreat. When inaction hardens into complicity. Pakistan has entered such a moment, and history will record whether its leaders recognized it in time. I write to you not as a political adversary, nor as a theorist removed from consequence, but as a citizen bound to this land by birth, memory, and inheritance. Some inherit assets. Others inherit rivers, glaciers, and fault lines. I belong to the latter. I am a native citizen of Islamabad, rooted in this soil much like Indigenous peoples elsewhere—witnesses rather than owners, custodians rather than consumers. I document this not as a professional climate entrepreneur, but as a born environmentalist, for whom climate change and ecology are not a profession, but a lifelong obligation. My voice is not speculative. It is grounded in the record. I was directly involved in one of Pakistan’s most consequential environmental interventions: the New Murree...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.