Current Projects

Maximizing benefits of Pak-China FTA II

Deliberations over the second phase of the Pakistan-China Free Trade Agreement have begun with a clear understanding between both countries that the benefits of the first phase of the FTA skewed in favour of the Oriental giant. SBP trade data suggests that exports to China have expanded since the first FTA went into effect in 2007. However, the gains made by Chinese exporters tower over benefits derived by Pakistani firms selling goods and services to China. It is also noteworthy that trade data reported by China asserts that their exports to Pakistan are significantly higher than the SBP tally, clocking in at $14 billion during the last fiscal. Three underlying principles for the second phase are that it is independent of the first phase, tariff reduction will not be reciprocal, rather it will be aimed at providing more benefits to Pakistan, and that each country will reserve the right to ascribe quotas on specific products in case of sudden import surge. These modalities are undoubtedly cognizant of the fact that sustainable trade liberalization can only result from a win-win situation for both countries. However, they may not be enough to ensure that tariff reductions obtained from the Chinese will translate to more balanced bilateral trade. An official responsible for capacity enhancement at a domestic steel manufacturing firm told BR Research that his firm had to contest a case in Sindh High Court before Pakistan Customs allowed that company to import a transformer from China that local companies were incapable of supplying. "Despite the FTA, it is difficult to import machinery that can improve efficiencies or productivity. But bringing in finished goods like phones and electronics is easy as cake", he asserted. Another commonly cited shortcoming is that the list of items under the FTA contains many irrelevant items while overlooking other, more logical export prospects. Federal Minister for Commerce, Khurram Dastagir Khan also conceded the same problem in a...

Credibility on trial again

The government’s commitment against terrorist networks is on trial again. Let us see why. Generally, the series of military and government actions since the December 16 attack, including the 20-point action plan, more than two dozen executions and passing of the 21stAmendment, sparked unusual hope among the majority of the country that we will be taking the monster of militancy head on. The December 16 tragedy had evoked global sympathy too. The Pakistani expatriate community, particularly those living in Europe and North America, also felt the pain of the aggrieved families. Their grief was not unique for a very simple reason: they live in countries where the law does not distinguish between the rich and poor, or between the mighty and helpless, the privileged and the underdogs. At least theoretically, and largely in practice too, the law takes its course whenever violated; hence, the strong craving among expatriate Pakistanis for the rule of law and a relentless pursuit of those breaking it within Pakistan. A 10-point resolution adopted at a Pakistani community meeting convened on December 23 by the Forum for International Relations Development in London, for instance, also resonates that sentiment. At least seven of the 10 points of the resolution relate to the need for governmental resolve against terrorist forces operating in the country and an emphatic demand for demonstrating “unwavering commitment to the rule of law and the democratic process in Pakistan”. The resolution stands out as an expression for “urgent government action” in areas such as dealing with outlawed sectarian, religious radical outfits, hate speech and intolerance. Interestingly, many of the demands are already part of the Anti-Terrorism Act (1997), and the entire resolution, in fact, reflected the frustration of these expatriates with the non-enforcement of these laws. A series of discussions since the Peshawar massacre with Pakistanis settled in different countries suggests that they...

The goldmine of free expression

What constitutes an obscene abuse of free speech will vary from society to society. The great contradiction of globalism is that individual cultural differences, not to mention national borders, are still very much alive and well We come into this world crying, and by that we are marked as healthy. We leave it with our last words imparting whatever final wisdom they can to those who matter to us. In those moments, expression is free and fearless. All our lives, the desire to express what we feel even if — sometimes especially if — it flows against the tide of our surroundings, our friends, our family, is palpable; a living thing that beat its wings against the warm but stifling cage of our heart and yearns to burst forth. So often, we swallow it back down. So often, for good reason: to keep our friendships, to avoid hurting our family, to spare the dignity of a stranger we do not know, though we believe his opinions to be dreadfully in error. Not everything that yearns to be free should be at every moment. If you gave voice to every thought that flashed in your brain, your social and professional life expectancy would be measured in hours, not days. We censor ourselves all the time. There is nothing inherently heroic or cowardly about that, good or ill. It is a way of negotiating life. But when someone else makes that decision for us, snatches it from us, when the state legislates against our expression, we should fight that fight every time. We may not win every fight, perhaps we should not win every fight, but we should fight it all the same. Because even though 99 percent of expression is pointless, trite, repetitive, dull, offensive, vapid or shrill, that remaining one percent is worth more than we imagine. Very little of what comes out of a goldmine is gold but we keep the mine open because, in the filthy darkness, through that hard and tedious and sometimes dangerous rock, we know we will find those gleaming nuggets, precious beyond measure. Exceptions to...

Energy security

At the famous Madame Tussaud's wax museum in London, sculptures representing renowned individuals from history, politics and popular culture stand in silent vigil, eerily lifelike but transfixed in inaction. This silent house of waxworks is strongly reminiscent of the new building of the national power regulator NEPRA, located in the heart of the capital yet like Madame Tussaud's serving little purpose except to entertain the beholder. In truth, this edifice stands as further testament to the waste of public money. Indeed, its only importance seems to derive from its tall proportions, a perfect example of modern technology standing as a false beacon of national prosperity. The interior environment offers 'new ways of working' and the offices have a lavish decor with contemporary furniture and plush furnishings. In the Eighties, the global power market landscape changed and the purpose of regulation became protecting consumers. In 1997, at a time when 25% extra- electricity was available to export, share of cheap hydroelectricity was more than 50%, Pakistan had the chance to follow UK's example when Nepra, emerged with an 18-page Act mandated to issue licenses for power generation, distribution and transmission. At the same time, it had to ensure provision of consistent electricity at affordable rates and create a level playing field for power companies. During the last decade, globally the regulators have made dramatic changes in regulations. The transformations, including technological advances and increasing renewable energy share, increasing efficiency for cost reductions, and climate change concerns are incorporated to ensure sustainable economic development by supply electricity at affordable rates. One of the key roles of regulators is energy audit, to ensure minimum use of fuel to generate single unit of electricity. Nepra Act was also amended three times, when three amendments related to the qualification of the chairperson were made to the original...

South Asia’s Nuclear Arms Race Heating Up?

Pakistan and India are vigorously expanding their fissile material production capacity to increase their nuclear weapons stockpiles. One report says Pakistan has operationalized its new plutonium producing facility at Khushab, about six weeks after reports appeared that India has almost completed the construction of its second gas centrifuge facility near Mysore. India and Pakistan continue to aggressively pursue their nuclear weapons programs despite muted concern by the global powers at rising tensions between the two rivals, especially since the rise of Narendra Modi in India. Pakistan has reportedly operationalized its new plutonium producing facility at Khushab, about six weeks after reports appeared that India has almost completed construction of its second gas centrifuge facility near Mysore. According to Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a Washington-based think-tank, a recently purchased Digital Globe high resolution satellite image dated January 15, 2015 shows that Pakistan’s Khushab’s fourth reactor’s external construction is complete and has become operational. ISIS is a non-profit, non-partisan institution dedicated to informing the public about science and policy issues affecting international security. Its primary focus is on stopping the spread of nuclear weapons and related technology to additional nations and to terrorists, bringing about greater transparency of nuclear activities worldwide, strengthening the international non-proliferation regime, and achieving deep cuts in nuclear arsenals. “This assessment is based on the presence of a very specific signature: steam is venting from the reactor’s cooling system,” says David Albright and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini in an article posted on the ISIS website. Khushab-4 is part of Khushab Nuclear Complex — a plutonium production nuclear reactor andheavy water complex located 124 miles south of Pakistan’s capital Islamabad — is dedicated to the production of plutonium for...

Pakistan’s counter-terror response: One Month On

In the one month since the horrendous attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar, Pakistan is critically reexamining and restructuring its counterterrorism narrative and mechanisms. On December 16, 2014, six Taliban militants attacked the Army Public School in Peshawar, killing 145 people, including 132 children. The siege lasted for six hours,  and all attackers were killed. The brazen and violent nature of the attack sent shockwaves throughout Pakistan, and in the international community. Public bloodlust overshadowed any previous outrage over the hundreds of terror incidents the country has faced in well over a decade of the conflict. The attack marked the beginning a massive restructuring of the internal policies by both the military and civilian governments, bringing about a monumental change in the national security policy. The military began bombardment of Taliban hideouts and increased the military footprint in the tribal belt on the same day. On December 17, 2014, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called an All Parties Conference (APC) in Peshawar. Backroom diplomacy and strategic dialogue, fueled by the catalyst of the scale of the tragedy, brought all political parties on board. On the same day, PM Sharif lifted a near decade long moratorium on the death penalty for convicted felons in the Pakistan judicial system. This caused a backlash with human rights groups, as the lifting of the moratorium implied that all convicted inmates would be hung. On December 19, 2014, the first two were hanged in Faisalabad. Over the next few days, several high-level meetings, involving both the civil and military leadership, take place. On the night of December 24, 2014, in a televised national address, PM Sharif laid out the National Action Plan for combating the menace of terrorism, a 20-point agenda that included the establishment of military courts to prosecute "jet black terrorists", steps to ban promulgation of all hate speech and paraphernalia, improving...

Pakistan's counter-terror response: One Month On

In the one month since the horrendous attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar, Pakistan is critically reexamining and restructuring its counterterrorism narrative and mechanisms. On December 16, 2014, six Taliban militants attacked the Army Public School in Peshawar, killing 145 people, including 132 children. The siege lasted for six hours,  and all attackers were killed. The brazen and violent nature of the attack sent shockwaves throughout Pakistan, and in the international community. Public bloodlust overshadowed any previous outrage over the hundreds of terror incidents the country has faced in well over a decade of the conflict. The attack marked the beginning a massive restructuring of the internal policies by both the military and civilian governments, bringing about a monumental change in the national security policy. The military began bombardment of Taliban hideouts and increased the military footprint in the tribal belt on the same day. On December 17, 2014, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called an All Parties Conference (APC) in Peshawar. Backroom diplomacy and strategic dialogue, fueled by the catalyst of the scale of the tragedy, brought all political parties on board. On the same day, PM Sharif lifted a near decade long moratorium on the death penalty for convicted felons in the Pakistan judicial system. This caused a backlash with human rights groups, as the lifting of the moratorium implied that all convicted inmates would be hung. On December 19, 2014, the first two were hanged in Faisalabad. Over the next few days, several high-level meetings, involving both the civil and military leadership, take place. On the night of December 24, 2014, in a televised national address, PM Sharif laid out the National Action Plan for combating the menace of terrorism, a 20-point agenda that included the establishment of military courts to prosecute "jet black terrorists", steps to ban promulgation of all hate speech and paraphernalia, improving...

Peshawar in peril

The lingering Mufti Mahmood Flyover – designed to connect Peshawar Cantonment with central Peshawar – is a typical example of the tardy and expensive governance that Pakistan as a whole reels from. Former chief minister Akram Khan Durrani laid the foundation stone for the 1.5km elevated carriageway some time in early 2007. His successor Ameer Haider Hoti launched the actual construction work in June 2011, with a promise that it will complete in December 2013. Three years on, the project is snail-pacing with no signs of completing in the near future. The only certainty is that its cost would have nearly doubled when it is complete. That is also what happened at the new Islamabad airport, which was supposed to have become operational in 2010 at a cost of less than 40 billion, but has at least another year to go before the completion of the first phase and has cost a staggering 90 billion. The Mufti Mahmood Flyover in Peshawar is only one symptom of a governance paralysis – a direct consequence of decades of conflict, acute cronyism, and increasing reliance on prayers for socio-economic relief, manifest in the fact that the people of the province voted four different parties into power in the four elections between 1997 and 2013. The PML-N, the PPP, the ANP, and the JUI (in alliance with JI) have been tested. The fifth party, the PTI, is currently on trial. And the common people continue to suffer because of broken roads, fumes of dust and traffic jams. The presence of several security checkpoints on the busiest roads – such as the Saddar-Jamrud Road – and even within the cantonment itself, represent a painful nuisance that people in the provincial capital suffer daily. These pickets defy common logic. Terrorists never cross these check-points. When they do come, they come from behind, via small allays, heavily armed, and kill 150-odd children and adults. When they decide to kill over a hundred Christians at the All-Saints Church, they do so without detection....

FTA with China: Pakistan offers to scrap duties on 50% of products

As domestic industries are at risk of being wiped out due to dumping of cheap Chinese products, Pakistan has offered to eliminate duties only on half of the total product lines in the second phase of the free trade agreement (FTA) instead of 90% under the original plan. Both the countries agreed on four broad principles for implementing the second phase of FTA, which would protect the interest of local industries, said Khurram Dastgir Khan, the Minister of Commerce. “One of the main principles is that tariff concessions will not be on a reciprocal basis, rather these will be in favour of Pakistan,” Khan said. Firstly, tariff reduction modalities of the second phase will be independent of the first phase, meaning there will be fresh negotiations on all aspects of the agreement. Secondly, the tariff reduction will not be on a reciprocal basis and China will give more incentives to Pakistan to make up for the adverse impact of the first phase. Thirdly, both sides offered different timelines for bringing down duties and on the pace of lowering tariff and in Pakistan’s case it will be slow. Lastly, if imports surge beyond a threshold, the two countries can apply trigger mechanisms and impose safeguard duties. Pakistan offered immediate reduction in duties to zero on 50% of product lines, which was far less than the original plan of lowering the duties on 90% of product lines, said Dr Robina Ather, Additional Secretary of Commerce Ministry. At present, Chinese exporters were enjoying zero duties on 35% of total product lines, she added. In comparison, China has offered to immediately slash duties to 70% of product lines. It has also suggested that after five years it will reduce duties on another 10% and the 90% target will be achieved in the next 10 years. However, Pakistan would lower duties on 90% of product lines in the next 15 to 20 years, she added. These timeframes will be taken up in the next round of negotiations that will be held in Beijing at the end of...

Revealed: Govt decides to ban Haqqani Network, JuD

Pakistan has decided to ban the Haqqani Network, Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and 10 more organisations in a move described by security analysts as a ‘paradigm shift’ in the country’s security policy. Confirming the development, senior officials told The Express Tribune that a formal announcement to this effect would be made in ‘coming days’. The decision came a day after the US State Department declared the fugitive chief of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Mullah Fazlullah as a ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorist’. Mullah Fazlullah had claimed responsibility for the December 16 bloody massacre of schoolchildren in Peshawar. The methodical killings of the schoolchildren prompted an overhaul of the country’s policy to counter the menace of terrorism. Government and opposition parties approved a wide-ranging National Action Plan against terrorism which, inter alia, envisages establishment of military courts to expedite trials of terror suspects. The Haqqani Network was designated as a terrorist organisation by the United States in September 2012. Subsequently, the UN Security Council’s Taliban sanctions committee also added the group to a UN blacklist. The network, founded by Afghan warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani, has been blamed for some of the most spectacular attacks on US-led foreign forces in Afghanistan. The network was believed to be using North Waziristan as a springboard for launching such attacks until the Pakistani military launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb in mid-June, last year. Security analysts say that banning the JuD is also a significant development as India, as well as the US, have long considered the charity run by Hafiz Muhammad Saeed as a front for the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant outfit which has been blamed by New Delhi for masterminding the 2008 terrorist attacks on landmarks in Mumbai. “It’s our first step towards execution of the National Action Plan. The nation will see more positive steps towards dismantling militant groups. Both civilian and military...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar