Current Projects

Untying the Knot by the Indian High Commissioner, Dr. TCA Raghavan

Dr. T. C. A. Raghavan, the Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, gave his observations and comments on India-Pakistan relations in a round table discussion at the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) on April 7, 2015. Noting the dramatic events that took place in 1979, such as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Revolution in Iran, and the hanging of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in Pakistan, Dr. Raghavan suggested that the cycle of events precipitated by these events seemed to have come full circle with the recent breakthrough in the Iran-US negotiations. He also referred to the changes taking place in South Asia, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Dr. Raghavan recalled having been told in various conversations during his stay in Pakistan that the US-Canada relationship model could serve as a benchmark for the India-Pakistan partnership. He emphasized that care and caution is of utmost importance while dealing with India-Pakistan relations. Emphasizing the importance of resolving terrorism and extremism, Dr. Raghavan asked the audience to imagine the state of India-Pakistan bilateral relations in the contra-factual situations wherein the Kargil episode of 1999 and the Mumbai terrorist attacks of 2008 had not taken place. Being inquired on the approach of the present Indian Government towards India-Pakistan relations, Dr. Raghavan said that the approach was very clear, the Government wants good relations with all the neighboring countries; in this context, he also noted the invitation extended to all the SAARC leaders for attending the oath taking ceremony of the Council of Ministers of the present Government. Referring to the new areas having strong potential for bilateral cooperation, Dr. Raghavan specifically highlighted hydro-carbon sector, health sector and tourism sector.

‘Beijing is a friend of the entire Pakistan’

Chinese officials say the Economic Corridor is not just a road, and no province will be left out. China is on the move. Its economy continues to grow at 7 percent. This translates into over a trillion dollars worth of GDP. Despite the growth, inflation in China remains under three percent. At the same time, Beijing is taking several new initiatives to enhance trade and connectivity. It has, for instance, set aside some $40 billion for the Silk Road project to supplement President Xi’s idea of “one belt one road.” More that 30 nations of and around the Asia-Pacific region have joined the $50 billion multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) bank that China has proposed. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank as well as leading nations such as Germany and France have expressed support for the Bank which is designed to provide project loans to developing countries. The AIIB is expected to kick off operations by the end of this year. Accompanying the economic growth bonanza is a focused social reform and stability agenda. The Chinese Communist Party has also unleashed a severe crackdown on corruption with a commitment to punish all violators. As many as 60 minister-level officials, for instance, have been sacked and penalized in the last couple of years as part of a drive to enforce rule of law. Over 30 Generals of the Peoples Liberation Army, too, have been removed for abuse of power. As for Pakistan, despite recent noises by nationalist parties and MPs from Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa over perceived changes in the route of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Beijing appears to remain intensely committed to the ambitious project. The Gwadar-Kashghar route was originally planned to go through Bisima, Khuzdar, Kalat and Quetta onto to Zhob, Dera Ismail Khan, Hassan Abdal and onwards to Kashghar, but the joint committee has decided to first take segments that are free of security concerns as...

US Drone War: Monthly Report

A monthly update on the United States Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) drone strikes in Afghanistan-Pakistan border region reveals that the strikes have been halved from the previous year, and the number of fatalities has also been reduced. The CIA drone strikes are being carried out in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), where Pakistani armed forces are conducting an operation code named ‘Zarb-e-Azb since June 2014 to root out terrorist infrastructure. Last year Pakistan witnessed 25 such strikes, in which approximately 184 people got killed, with reported 4 civilians among the victims, while 40 people were injured. The Obama administration carried out more drone strikes than his predecessor George. W Bush. The CIA carried out 408 strikes since 2004, whereas the number of Obama strikes is crossing more than 360. Pakistan: CIA drone strikes All strikes, March 2015 All strikes, 2015 to date All strikes, 2004 to date CIA drone Strikes 1 6 414 Total reported killed 3 29-41 2,445 - 3,945 Civilians reported killed 0 0 421- 960 Children reported killed 0 0 172- 207 Total reported injured 0 9-14 1,142- 1, 720 One CIA drone strike killed three people in Pakistan last month. The attack hit in Kurram agency just across the border from North Waziristan – the location of the overwhelming majority of strikes this year and in 2014. The attack hit in the Shabak area of the agency, which is close to the border with Afghanistan. Some reports had the strike hitting in Afghanistan however a Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) statement placed the attack on the Pakistan side of the border. This TTP press release was a eulogy for the three men killed in the attack. It said Khawrey Mehsud was a senior commander in the group and had been its former leader Baitullah Mehsud‘s bodyguard. Baituallah was killed in a drone strike in Pakistan in 2009. This was the first strike in Pakistan since January 28 when six or seven people were killed in North Waziristan. There has...

CRSS Radio Reporter Wins Award for HIV/Aids Report

At an EHAD workshop, organized in Peshawar in 2014, journalists were asked to produce one investigative report on child sexual abuse, infectious disease HIV/Aids, child marriages, and many other issues. Inam Ullah, veteran reporter for the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS/The Center), filed a radio report on HIV/Aids, a taboo topic in Pakistan. Inam's entry was one of nearly a hundred submitted for this competition. The report, focusing on treatment, prevention and risks of HIV/Aids, delved into Khyber Pukhtunkhwa government’s initiatives to provide free treatment and counseling at major public hospitals. The report also aimed to create awareness and sensitize the public about HIV/Aids, which is no longer a deadly disease, if an infected person starts treatment in time. This report was aired on September 23, 2014 in The Center's flagship radio show, Sabawoon and simultaneously submitted to EHAD for the award competition. CRSS is pleased to announce that Inam Ullah received the first prize in the radio category. The award ceremony washeld at Marriott Islamabad on March 27, 2015 where Inam was gifted a sum of Rs. 20,000 for his outstanding reporting. The Center offers heartiest felicitations to Inam Ullah, for this incredible accomplishment in the field of journalism.

Fighting terror & calamity

What is the most effective way of fighting irregular forces of terrorism and extremism or even reacting to calamities? Is it proactive mediation and reliance on the tools of soft power i.e., good and merit-based governance as a long-term strategy, or is it through the hard power of the state alone? Does the hard power provide lasting victory over unregulated evil? Can a state succeed against crime, calamity and terror if its governance structures are cluttered in a reactive mode? Also, can a country make the right decisions if most of the political discourse on national and international issues is usually dictated more by emotions and less by rationalty. The Pakistan government’s response to the Yemen crisis offers one example of a state that lacks proactive intuition and only reacts when surrounded by crisis or hit by calamity. Most countries — including the United States, the UK, Germany — acted well ahead of time and had their citizens evacuated from Yemen without allowing fear and panic to perpetuate. Sadly, some 2,500 Pakistani citizens, as of March 30, still await evacuation and this reflects either the willful oversight of an imminent crisis or wishful optimism of the Pakistani diplomatic mission in Sanaa. Did it issue any caution or advisory, at least to those citizens who were closer to the advancing Houthi militias? The trouble in Yemen had been brewing for several years and this simmering conflict turned into a regional conflict as Saudi Arabia initiated strikes on Houthi rebels. The government apparently lost no time in blindly committing military support to the Saudi Arabian monarch during the prime minister’s specially organised tour to the Kingdom in March. The evacuation of Pakistanis stranded in Yemen was probably an afterthought. Pakistani political parties, intelligensia and the civil society at large, on the other hand, have loudly begun opposing their country’s active participation in the Saudi-led war on Yemen. They want the government to...

Fighting terror & calamity

What is the most effective way of fighting irregular forces of terrorism and extremism or even reacting to calamities? Is it proactive mediation and reliance on the tools of soft power i.e., good and merit-based governance as a long-term strategy, or is it through the hard power of the state alone? Does the hard power provide lasting victory over unregulated evil? Can a state succeed against crime, calamity and terror if its governance structures are cluttered in a reactive mode? Also, can a country make the right decisions if most of the political discourse on national and international issues is usually dictated more by emotions and less by rationalty. The Pakistan government’s response to the Yemen crisis offers one example of a state that lacks proactive intuition and only reacts when surrounded by crisis or hit by calamity. Most countries — including the United States, the UK, Germany — acted well ahead of time and had their citizens evacuated from Yemen without allowing fear and panic to perpetuate. Sadly, some 2,500 Pakistani citizens, as of March 30, still await evacuation and this reflects either the willful oversight of an imminent crisis or wishful optimism of the Pakistani diplomatic mission in Sanaa. Did it issue any caution or advisory, at least to those citizens who were closer to the advancing Houthi militias? The trouble in Yemen had been brewing for several years and this simmering conflict turned into a regional conflict as Saudi Arabia initiated strikes on Houthi rebels. The government apparently lost no time in blindly committing military support to the Saudi Arabian monarch during the prime minister’s specially organised tour to the Kingdom in March. The evacuation of Pakistanis stranded in Yemen was probably an afterthought. Pakistani political parties, intelligensia and the civil society at large, on the other hand, have loudly begun opposing their country’s active participation in the Saudi-led war on Yemen. They want the government to...

Fighting terror & calamity

What is the most effective way of fighting irregular forces of terrorism and extremism or even reacting to calamities? Is it proactive mediation and reliance on the tools of soft power i.e., good and merit-based governance as a long-term strategy, or is it through the hard power of the state alone? Does the hard power provide lasting victory over unregulated evil? Can a state succeed against crime, calamity and terror if its governance structures are cluttered in a reactive mode? Also, can a country make the right decisions if most of the political discourse on national and international issues is usually dictated more by emotions and less by rationalty. The Pakistan government’s response to the Yemen crisis offers one example of a state that lacks proactive intuition and only reacts when surrounded by crisis or hit by calamity. Most countries — including the United States, the UK, Germany — acted well ahead of time and had their citizens evacuated from Yemen without allowing fear and panic to perpetuate. Sadly, some 2,500 Pakistani citizens, as of March 30, still await evacuation and this reflects either the willful oversight of an imminent crisis or wishful optimism of the Pakistani diplomatic mission in Sanaa. Did it issue any caution or advisory, at least to those citizens who were closer to the advancing Houthi militias? The trouble in Yemen had been brewing for several years and this simmering conflict turned into a regional conflict as Saudi Arabia initiated strikes on Houthi rebels. The government apparently lost no time in blindly committing military support to the Saudi Arabian monarch during the prime minister’s specially organised tour to the Kingdom in March. The evacuation of Pakistanis stranded in Yemen was probably an afterthought. Pakistani political parties, intelligensia and the civil society at large, on the other hand, have loudly begun opposing their country’s active participation in the Saudi-led war on Yemen. They want the government to...

Annual Security Report – 2014

The year 2014 began with a resolve of holding negotiations with the militants and it ended with a consensus of eliminating extremism categorically. This was the result of the two horrific game-changing incidents. These were brazen attacks on Karachi Airport and the Army Public School in Peshawar. A decade of fighting against a nameless and faceless monster has finally reached a point where traditional blame gaming, rhetoric, and lack of political will have lost their credence. Pakistan, at least on paper, emerged with an unwavering determination to eliminate this enemy permanently. Significant difference of opinion still exists as to who is actually pulling the strings behind these elements. For some, it is some kind of conspiracy[1] or the domain of foreign hands[2], whereas for others it is the ideological paradigm of the country that keeps breeding and nurturing this monster. This annual report analyzes violence in Pakistan empirically, using factual data and the pattern of violence drawn from the incidents of crimes committed in the country. The subjects to be covered in this report are: All assessments and reviews are based on the data collected from reports appearing in the local press. Efforts are made to maintain the data as accurate as possible within the available resources. Errors and omissions, as always a possibility in all statistical works including this one, are expected. However, such mistakes do not grossly affect the overall outcome of this report. This report has been prepared by Mohammad Nafees, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS, and edited by Zeeshan Salahuddin, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS. Readers can approach CRSS for the source of any information included in the report. Please send your request to mail@crss.pk. Casualties of Violence in the Country - 2014 Pakistan faced a range of internal security issues in 2014, resulting in a wide variety of forms of violence. These include terrorism, militant attacks, sectarian violence, crime, target...

Tentacles of terror

Terrorists and criminal gangs have developed deep connections in various arms of government. Are Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif set to undo many of the unpleasant policies of their predecessors? Is the ostensible civil-military consensus behind the March 11 raid on MQM headquarters Nine Zero and their display of unity at the Pakistan Day parade on March 23 a sign of the dawn of a new era, or will it just be another phase of tactical realignment spearheaded by the General Headquarters in Pakistan’s chequered history? Unfortunately, the public views the GHQ as being more assertive and predominant in an extremely volatile situation arising out of political incompetence, insensitivity to public concern, and above all, patronage of rampant crime by political elites. Back in September 2013, these circumstances had prompted the Supreme Court to direct law-enforcement agencies to eliminate the militant wings of political parties operating in Karachi. The Rangers did launch a clean-up operation, but the political will it required to be effective was still missing. On the face of it, the apex committee formed early this year provided the much-needed political ownership to what eventually led to the raid on the MQM headquarters – the culmination of the operation launched in late 2013 indeed. Intelligence outfits had gradually and increasingly zeroed in on the MQM for its role in criminal activities in the Karachi. Considerable mapping preceded before the rangers eventually dared to break through 21 barriers around Nine Zero. The ensuing claims by the government, allegations by the PPP maverick Dr Zufliqar Mirza, and a statement by death-row convict Saulat Mirza, finally blew the lid off an unpleasant “open secret”; the direct or indirect role of major political parties in organized crime that had emerged as the single largest existential threat to Karachi. Security forces, including the corrupt police and the mighty Rangers, also...

Discord within Transatlantic alliance: fact and fiction

So here’s the fiction: America and Europe stand united against the “rest of the world”. The transatlantic alliance is strong, solid and a bulwark against the machinations of China and the world’s other emerging nations. Washington and Brussels are like-minded, like-thinking entities which see eye to eye on almost everything. Together, they can still rule the world. Perhaps in the 20th century — but no longer. Here are the facts: the world has changed from unipolar to multi-polar or even “no-polar”. For all its military might, the US no longer rules the world. For proof, look no further than the way Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu is obstructing progress on US-Iran nuclear talks. And here are some more facts: America and the EU are divided over the death penalty, Guantanamo Bay, illegal renditions, the use of torture and the revelations of spying by the National Security Agency as revealed by Edward Snowden. They disagree over how to deal with Russia and Ukraine. And while America sees China mainly as a strategic competitor, Europe is happy to work with Beijing on tackling many 21st century challenges. Certainly, there are some points of convergence. Significantly, negotiations are underway on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), seen by many as the last attempt by a declining West to impose its economic rule-making model on a watching world. But even as they seek agreement on TTIP, many European states are posing the BIGGEST challenge to the US by deciding to join the Chinese-led, Chinese-inspired $50 billion Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which Washington continues to firmly oppose. So far, EU members Britain, France, Germany and Italy have said they want to be founding members of the AIIB. But other Europeans will undoubtedly join their ranks. The story is not just about Washington vs Beijing; it’s about a changing world order, the shift of power from west to east, the rise of China and its challenge to years of US...