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Pakistan Taking off?

by Imtiaz Gul In recent public appearances, including in an article, the Minister for Planning, Ahsan Iqbal, has likened Pakistan to an aircraft and spelt out the basic conditions for a successful take-off: “An aircraft can land with one of its engines shut down, but it can never take off without all engines working together. If all these conditions are not met, the plane can’t take off successfully.” While underscoring the criticality of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Iqbal says that in order to realise the “dream (of development) we need to follow the rules of a successful take-off — maintaining favourable political weather, ensuring a smooth platform of consistent policies, and working together as a united, determined and focused nation”. Iqbal’s noble intentions, focus and hard work on the CPEC notwithstanding, his recipe for the take-off itself contains a caveat for important stakeholders in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and Balochistan — a smooth platform, consistent policies and unity. Is the government really focused, united and transparent and does it have all stakeholders on board? Is it riding on a sense of shared responsibility, nationhood and identity? The K-P government, for instance, complains that out of the Rs359 billion allocated to the CPEC projects so far, not a single penny is meant for the western route. Out of this, some Rs10 billion has been “fraudulently” earmarked for “acquisition of land between Mianwali and Islamabad”. The factual position is that Islamabad is not part of the western route. Similarly, Rs265 billion have been earmarked for LNG pipelines to be built from Gwadar to Nawabshah and onwards to Havaili Bahadur Shah Jang to Baloki on GT Road near Lahore — at best, a Punjab-based project. Most energy projects, argue the critics, are located on the eastern route. Were investors from other provinces encouraged to get involved in these projects, even if they were meant for the eastern route? Were environment impact studies...

Pakistan’s Counter-Terror Conundrum

by Imtiaz Gul Executive Director CRSS Imtiaz Gul takes a look at the dilemmas faced by Pakistan in counter radical ideology and violent extremism, labels five reasons for why there is such clamor over the implementation of NAP, and suggests possible ways forward. The public outrage over yet another “security lapse” (Bacha Khan University terror attack[1]) made complete sense. It marked the fourth consecutive terror strike within a week (Khyber Agency, Quetta, Charsadda) leaving over four dozen innocents killed. These incidents of violence justifiably shocked everyone because of the considerable decline in acts of terror in 2015. Much of the fury from politicians and intellectuals was directed against the 20-point National Action Plan (NAP)[2]. Most critics equated the attack to a sheer failure of NAP. Frankly, the NAP essentially is a reiteration to strictly enforce existing laws, to work on improving security conditions and to address major drivers of religious extremism. At no point did this framework promise total elimination of terrorism per say. Nor did it rule out future terror strikes. Why then the fuss and frustration over “napping” NAP then? Gains since December 2014 On the face of it, Pakistan can claim considerable successes in its anti-terror campaign since the adoption of NAP in December 2014 after a terrorist assault on the Army Public School in Peshawar. As many as 144 children and their teachers were killed and the incident literally galvanized the entire nation, resulting in the unanimous adoption of NAP. It followed on the heels of the Operation Zarb-e-Azb, launched in June 2014 in North Waziristan after a brazen terrorist assault on the Karachi airport. This operation dislodged the Taliban and their allies from North Waziristan. A good number of them succeeded in slipping out to Afghanistan, other tribal areas and mainland Pakistan.[3] The government claims to have arrested over 11,700 terrorists, handlers and facilitators, and killed thousands...

China Considers Larger Role in Afghanistan Peace Process

To play a vital role for the peace talks with the Taliban, China must convince Pakistan to engage politically and economically with all the regional powers as, a stable Afghanistan means a better transport hub. Li Shaoxian, vice-president of the Chinese Association of Middle East Studies, believes it is significant for China to establish direct contact with Taliban representatives. China would make a major difference if it pushed Pakistan to acknowledge its support for the Taliban. BEIJING- As a bloody offensive by the Taliban spreads in Afghanistan and with American combat operations there officially ended, anxious Chinese leaders find themselves under pressure to take a more active role in the long-stalled peace process, according to scholars and current and former diplomats. For observers of Chinese diplomacy, that kind of commitment is surprising since China often tries to take a hands-off approach in regions and nations at war. “The big backdrop is that the United States will have withdrawn most of its troops from Afghanistan with the antiterrorism mission unfinished, which is leaving the country a mess,” said Du Youkang, who worked in Islamabad, Pakistan, as a diplomat and is now the director of the South Asia Studies Center at Fudan University in Shanghai. “Bombings have never stopped, even in the capital. Afghanistan shares a border with China, so in this case China must get involved to promote the talks and to secure the stability in the region.” Yet if China is to play a productive role in peace talks with the Taliban, the officials and scholars say, it will have to convince its ally Pakistan that an Afghanistan at peace and engaged politically and economically with all regional powers, including India, is in Pakistan’s interests. The Afghan foreign minister, Salahuddin Rabbani, begins an official four-day visit in Beijing on Monday, and the topic of bringing Afghanistan’s warring factions to the negotiating table is expected to be the priority in his...

CRSS China Watch – January 25, 2016

The Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Reforms Ahsan Iqbal rejected the idea of incorporating adjustments in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) route. He emphasized that the CPEC is an important project for the socio-economic development of the whole region. There was no final decision made regarding the CPEC route in Pakistan although Pak-China Industrial Working Group has to be constituted.[1] He declared that out of the $46 billion Chinese investment under the CPEC project, a big amount of $11.5 billion was allocated for projects in Sindh.[2] Emphasizing the significance of CPEC, Sindh Governor Dr. Ishratul Ebad Khan has said that this project will accelerate the economic development in Pakistan. He said that the government assured every possible support to Chinese investors in Pakistan to facilitate the foreign investment.[3] According to analysts, the CPEC project will greatly enhance and stimulate regional trade. Talking in Radio Pakistan's Current Affairs' program, Dr. Noor Fatima said that due to the improved security situation, Pakistan would attract more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). As a result, CPEC has also increased the level of confidence in other countries.[4] Pakistan China Friendship Association Honorary President Sha Zukang said that any difference of opinions over the CPEC would actually lead to positive results. The difference in opinions means more discussions and incorporation of alternate viewpoints. Echoing his words, and talking to the Associated Press of Pakistan, Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed stated that the CPEC project would lead to the development of whole region of South Asia (SA).[5] [1] http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2016/01/24/city/lahore/minister-dismisses-reports-on-change-in-cpec-route/ [2] http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/24-Jan-2016/sindh-to-get-maximum-in-cpec-says-ahsan-iqbal [3] http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/sindh/24-Jan-2016/governor-assures-complete-assistance-to-chinese-investors [4]...

Making Sense of the CPEC Controversy

The controversy around the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) seems far from subsiding. In recent developments, political parties from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and Balochistan have upped the ante and have accused the ruling party of ignoring the smaller provinces in the multi-billion dollar project. In an attempt to make sense of the concerns advanced by representatives from Balochistan and K-P, I am going to examine the position taken by the federal government in a series of articles. The CPEC is a mutli-route corridor that will be completed in multiple phases over a period of 15 years. As per the decision of the May 28, 2015 APC, the western route of the corridor passing through the relatively lesser-developed provinces of Balochistan and K-P is being built on a priority basis. To judge whether the federal government has actually prioritised the building of the western route or not, let’s develop a simple test and check if its claims about having prioritised this route passes the test. According to the test, the western route shall be considered prioritised if it meets the following conditions: 1) The quality of infrastructure of the western route should be better or at least similar to that of the eastern route. For this to happen, the government must have allocated the required financial resources to the route. 2) Ideally, the western route should be constructed first so that it can become functional before the other two routes. If circumstances are not ideal, as is often the case, then it should become operational at least simultaneously with the other routes. Timing is central to economic planning and development. The question of ‘which-route-to-take-first’ is very important and is likely to play a key role in shaping the subsequent path of development. 3) At least half of the proposed industrial parks and economic zones and other supporting components of the corridor, including energy projects, railway tracks and gas pipelines should be located along...

The Tragedy of India’s Caste System 

The 2011 census in India showed the population of Indians belonging to Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes as being over 25 per cent of the population. Of these, 16.6 per cent are dalits and 8.6 per cent are adivasis. These are the other names by which these communities (whom the British called Untouchables and Tribals) are known. One-fourth of India means 300 million or 30 crore people. If they were a nation by themselves, they would be the fourth-largest in the world, after China, India and the United States. But in India’s white collar economy, they have almost no presence. The main reason for this is lack of access to quality education and historical lack of opportunity for employment. The Indian Constitution has tried to correct this by introducing reservations in educational institutions and government jobs. But the middle class (which means upper caste) Indians of our cities feel that they are discriminated against by reservations and that their ‘merit’ should not be sacrificed. I can guarantee that in any major, urban, white collar office, the most likely place to find dalits is in the list of grade one employees. This comprises those who clean. There is absolutely no shame that is felt by these institutions over this fact. Such things are not even thought about. Both dalits and adivasis are totally marginalised in the Indian economy and media. I am writing about this because of an event in Hyderabad where a dalit student killed himself. Rohith Vemula, a PhD student, and four others were expelled from their hostel after pressure from the Union government. They had squabbled with students of the BJP union over the death penalty. This resulted in a Union minister referring to the students as anti-national and casteist (a strange charge against dalits) in a letter to the minister in charge of education. This minister, Smriti Irani, demanded action against the students, sending four reminders to the university in a matter of days (one wonders if the ministry...

Fighting Terrorism: More DHAs, More Metros

Islamabad diary A nation at war? This is the biggest fiction of all. You wouldn’t guess this from Islamabad’s development priorities or the flyover craze in Lahore. Or from the billboards and ads glorifying the great amenities provided by that marvel of military planning, the Defence Housing Authority. Yet when national complacency is punctured by another terrorist outrage – such as the latest in Charsadda – the flood of crocodile tears sweeps everything before it. Let me quickly add that those hit by the tragedy, the grieving souls, their tears are all too real. But the sorrow and the solemnities pouring forth from the apparatus of government are now part of a standard and tested routine. And when the moment passes, as all moments even the most tragic must eventually pass, it is back to business as usual and the return of complacency once more…until the next terrorist attack when the usual stock of clichés is offloaded again. Army, Frontier Corps, intelligence agencies, and the rest of the security structure are all in this fight. But they are fighting a lonely fight. They are in it, up to their necks, taking the hits and the casualties. There is no village graveyard in the Chakwal district, as in adjoining districts from where come so many of the army’s soldiers, without its share of the martyred in this war. But the nation seems strangely uninvolved. Away from the killing fields, away from the frontlines, does this really seem to be a nation at war? You won’t get this feeling from the bustle of big-city shopping malls, the obsession with turning Lahore and Islamabad into pale replicas of Dubai, or from the army’s single-minded preoccupation with real estate, something not mitigated even by this war, the longest and cruellest in our tumultuous history. Do nations at war cultivate such priorities? Is this how they spend scarce resources? Leningrad under siege in the Second World War, London during the Blitz, were they into expensive projects meant to pander to...

Reforms in FATA: A Pragmatic Proposition or a Slippery Slope?

Down the Rabbit Hole In December 2006, the then military dictator General Pervez Musharraf convened a major gathering to discuss Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The attendees included officials from the FATA Secretariat ,  Political Agents (PAs), representatives of the Ministry of States and Frontier Regions (SAFRON) , the Governor of Khyber  Pukhtunkhwa, notable elders and politicians from the region, along with representatives of the military establishment. The President's intent was to put all FATA stakeholders in one room, and determine the future of FATA. For nearly three days, fiery speeches, ambitious plans and reform proposals bounced back and forth between the political and military elite, whereas the only common thread by sycophantic bureaucrats and Maliks was unanimous and unconditional praise for General Musharraf for taking the initiative. However, the enthusiasm gave way to caution on the third day, when participants warned against tinkering with the system currently governing FATA. Despite days of deliberation, the gathering failed to agree upon possible reforms for FATA. One of the conference attendees, a PA, while recalling his experience, did not express even a shred of optimism regarding reforms in FATA, citing the military's hesitation for change in wake of the ongoing insurgency in the region. The military's “interest” in FATA was also evident when a 27-member Committee on Constitutional Reforms, in 2009, deliberated extensively and climaxed with amendments to 101 articles of the federal constitution. However, none of these applied to Part XII: Miscellaneous – Chapter III: Tribal Areas, especially Article 246 - which geographically defines “Tribal Areas”, “Provincially Administered Tribal Areas” and “Federally Administered Tribal Areas” - and article 247 - which gives the President sweeping powers, and excludes these areas from any parliamentary legislation, or legal jurisdiction from the Supreme Court or any High Court...

CRSS China Watch – January 22, 2016

The recent terrorist attack at Bacha Khan University in Pakistan was strongly condemned by China, said Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Hong Lei. China firmly opposes the militant attacks on innocent civilians[1] The Federal Minister for Railways Khawaja Saad Rafiq assured to the Senate body that the railways track will be stretched up to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Hassani highlighted that the center had deprioritized railways in the KP by assigning only $ 3.78 billion for the Railway. The ministry of railways was asked to present the complete record of railway land in the next meeting of the committee. The minister added that the demand of rise in the salaries of railway police has also been forwarded to the Prime Minister for evaluation.[2] [1] http://www.app.com.pk/en_/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=383522&Itemid=1 [2] http://nation.com.pk/business/22-Jan-2016/cpec-govt-vows-to-extend-rail-track-to-fata

Status of Minorities: strangers in their own land

by Zeeshan Salahuddin On Tuesday, January 19, a private research institute in Islamabad released their second report on minorities titled “State of Religious Freedoms in Pakistan”. The publication documents and maps incidents of violence and atrocities against minorities since 2012, and the findings are shocking. With the advent of the National Action Plan (NAP), other institutions such as the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) have determined that the incidents of violence overall (and thus violence against minorities) have gone down in the last calendar year, this publication reports at least 351 incidents of violence against minorities since 2012. Minorities in Pakistan have always been presented as soft targets, easy picking for sectarian groups, and in recent years, even non-sectarian elements. The primary groups that suffer as a result of the state’s weak response are Shias (including Hazaras and sub-sects), Christians, Ahmedis and Hindus. Since 2012, 40 attacks of varying scale and intensity were carried out against the Christian community, the most significant ones being a massive arson attack on Joseph Colony in Lahore, and a church bombing in Peshawar. Christians account for 2.5 million individuals in Pakistan. During this period seven churches were damaged, and 14 Christians were charged with blasphemy. As stated before, the amount of violence in the country has declined overall, which also lowers the incidents of violence against minorities overall. However, through interviews, it is evident that the Christian community feels marginalized, a second class of citizen, unprotected practically despite being protected constitutionally, and a non-priority for the state. There has been an increase in violence against Shias Nearly 1 million Hindus reside in Pakistan, with 80% of them hailing from Sindh. Hindus bear the additional issue of being discriminated against institutionally, as they are labelled as untrustworthy, vile, and evil traitors,...

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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar