Current Projects

Monthly Drone Report: January 2016

The events detailed here occurred in 2016. These have been reported by US or Pakistani government, military and intelligence officials, and by credible media, academic and other sources, including on occasion Bureau researchers. Below is a summary of CIA drone strikes and casualty estimates for 2016. Please note that our data changes according to our current understanding of particular strikes. Below represents our present best estimate. You can access a complete spreadsheet of all strike and casualty data for Pakistan here. CIA strikes – Obama 2016 Total CIA drone strikes 1 Total reported killed: 5 Civilians reported killed: 0 Children reported killed: 0 Total reported injured: 2 Pakistan CIA drones killed five people in on January 9, including a Pakistan Taliban commander. It was the first US attack in Pakistan since September 1 2015. January 2016 2004 onwards CIA drone strikes: 1 422 Total killed: 5 2,493-3,994 Civilians reported killed: 0 423-965 The Bureau's timeline of events in the drone war in Pakistan in 2016. A database of all US drone strikes recorded by the Bureau in Pakistan from 2004 to the end of January 2016. Afghanistan The US launched an onslaught of jet and drone strikes in January, most targeting fighters from the so-called Islamic State - Khorasan group, the Afghan offshoot of the Iraq and Syria-based group. January 2016 2015 onwards US strikes: 43 230 Total killed: 193-196 988-1,413 Civilians reported killed: 1 57-86 The Bureau is collecting data on individual strikes in Afghanistan - summarised above. However not all strikes are reported in open source material. The US Air Force publishes an aggregate summary of strikes in Afghanistan without any casualty information, which we have reproduced below. US Air Force data for 2015 Total Close Air Support (CAS) sorties with at least one weapon release: 411 Total CAS sorties: 4,676 Total weapons released: 94 The Bureau's timeline of events in the drone war in Afghanistan so far in 2016. Yemen Two...

CRSS China Watch – February 2 2016

To manage the energy crisis in Pakistan, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has decided to evaluate the progress of Sahiwal coal power plant project. This 132-MW project is a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A 19-member delegation of the government and opposition from Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) Assembly had a meeting with the Chairman Parliamentary Committee on CPEC. In the meeting, they voiced their annoyance over not including GB in CPEC. They requested the committee on CPEC to visit GB in this regard. [1] Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Syed Tariq Fatemi had a meeting with the Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing. They discussed the connotation of bilateral relationship and underlined the need of frequent exchange of personnel in academia.[2] [1] http://nation.com.pk/islamabad/02-Feb-2016/mps-show-concern-over-not-including-gb-in-cpec [2] http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/front-top/276447-fatemi-for-enhanced-china-pak-intellectual-exchanges-academics-linkages.html

CRSS China Watch – February 2 2016

To manage the energy crisis in Pakistan, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has decided to evaluate the progress of Sahiwal coal power plant project. This 132-MW project is a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A 19-member delegation of the government and opposition from Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) Assembly had a meeting with the Chairman Parliamentary Committee on CPEC. In the meeting, they voiced their annoyance over not including GB in CPEC. They requested the committee on CPEC to visit GB in this regard. [1] Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Syed Tariq Fatemi had a meeting with the Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing. They discussed the connotation of bilateral relationship and underlined the need of frequent exchange of personnel in academia.[2] [1] http://nation.com.pk/islamabad/02-Feb-2016/mps-show-concern-over-not-including-gb-in-cpec [2] http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/front-top/276447-fatemi-for-enhanced-china-pak-intellectual-exchanges-academics-linkages.html

CRSS China Watch – February 2 2016

To manage the energy crisis in Pakistan, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has decided to evaluate the progress of Sahiwal coal power plant project. This 132-MW project is a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A 19-member delegation of the government and opposition from Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) Assembly had a meeting with the Chairman Parliamentary Committee on CPEC. In the meeting, they voiced their annoyance over not including GB in CPEC. They requested the committee on CPEC to visit GB in this regard. [1] Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Syed Tariq Fatemi had a meeting with the Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing. They discussed the connotation of bilateral relationship and underlined the need of frequent exchange of personnel in academia.[2] [1] http://nation.com.pk/islamabad/02-Feb-2016/mps-show-concern-over-not-including-gb-in-cpec [2] http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/front-top/276447-fatemi-for-enhanced-china-pak-intellectual-exchanges-academics-linkages.html

CRSS China Watch – February 1 2016

The Parliamentary Committee for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) led by Senator Mushahid Hussain, looked over the CPEC projects in their three days visit to the Sindh province. Talking about the Thar coal power project, the senator specifically emphasized that no element of political or provincial preferences has been found in the project. The overt visit of MPs from all federating units makes their support to the project certain. The delegates from working committee of Thar coal project agreed that Thar is the energy future of Pakistan.[1] With the idea of fixing around 12 billion rupees against development budget, the Chief Minister of Gilgit Baltistan (GB) - while stressing the importance of CPEC- underlined that the project will bring economic and social development in the region.[2] In order to evaluate the level of advancement of developmental projects in the power and petroleum sectors initiated under the CPEC, the Federal Finance Minister called upon a meeting. It was a detailed meeting about the finance, timeline and development of the power and petroleum projects.[3] The Ukrainian ambassador claimed that the Multinational Companies (MNC’s) of Ukraine are aiming to build power plants, pipelines, bridges and railways in Pakistan. He claimed that making investments in the CPEC project would exploit the economic opportunities at regional level.[4] The Chairman Board of Investment declared that the CPEC has been a game changer for regional progress and development since it has uplifted the economy of Pakistan in the last two years.[5] [1] http://tribune.com.pk/story/1037850/mps-see-thar-as-energy-future-of-pakistan/ [2] http://www.radio.gov.pk/newsdetail/82347/1 [3] http://www.brecorder.com/market-data/stocks-a-bonds/0/12125/ [4] http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/30-Jan-2016/ukrainian-companies-keen-to-invest-in-cpec-project-says-envoy [5]...

China: Iran’s New Best Friend

As Iran celebrates the lifting of sanctions and cranks up its oil production, the biggest winner may be China, Iran’s new best friend. Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a visit to Tehran in January, meeting Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and signing a 25-year economic, political and military cooperation pact. The two leaders announced the signing of 17 deals—including agreements on oil drilling, nuclear energy and a vast infrastructure project linking China to the Mediterranean, known as One Belt, One Road. Rouhani predicted the deals would boost bilateral trade tenfold to an annual $600 billion in the next decade. “The end of the sanctions will serve first and foremost to help Chinese energy firms—that is why President Xi Jinping is paying a sudden official visit to Tehran,” says Jean-Christophe Iseux, Baron von Pfetten, a French senior adviser to the Chinese government. (He convened a series of back-channel meetings among top Iranian, Chinese and Israeli officials in the run-up to July’s grand deal in Vienna, where Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.) “The [nuclear] deal would not have been possible without the active involvement of Iran’s sole trusted foreign friend—China,” von Pfetten says. Iran has been close to China for years—it has been Iran’s largest trading partner since 2009. During the last (and most draconian) sanctions period, China helped keep Tehran afloat by buying its oil, using Iranian banks in a way that did not technically violate sanctions. China also invested heavily in Iranian roads, factories and infrastructure at the time. High-profile Chinese projects include the 5-kilometer Niayesh tunnel in Tehran, one of the longest in the world, and the city’s Chinese-designed metro system. The two countries have also found common ground in their opposition to U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. It was China that helped Iran kick-start its nuclear weapons program back in the 1980s,...

China: Iran's New Best Friend

As Iran celebrates the lifting of sanctions and cranks up its oil production, the biggest winner may be China, Iran’s new best friend. Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a visit to Tehran in January, meeting Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and signing a 25-year economic, political and military cooperation pact. The two leaders announced the signing of 17 deals—including agreements on oil drilling, nuclear energy and a vast infrastructure project linking China to the Mediterranean, known as One Belt, One Road. Rouhani predicted the deals would boost bilateral trade tenfold to an annual $600 billion in the next decade. “The end of the sanctions will serve first and foremost to help Chinese energy firms—that is why President Xi Jinping is paying a sudden official visit to Tehran,” says Jean-Christophe Iseux, Baron von Pfetten, a French senior adviser to the Chinese government. (He convened a series of back-channel meetings among top Iranian, Chinese and Israeli officials in the run-up to July’s grand deal in Vienna, where Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.) “The [nuclear] deal would not have been possible without the active involvement of Iran’s sole trusted foreign friend—China,” von Pfetten says. Iran has been close to China for years—it has been Iran’s largest trading partner since 2009. During the last (and most draconian) sanctions period, China helped keep Tehran afloat by buying its oil, using Iranian banks in a way that did not technically violate sanctions. China also invested heavily in Iranian roads, factories and infrastructure at the time. High-profile Chinese projects include the 5-kilometer Niayesh tunnel in Tehran, one of the longest in the world, and the city’s Chinese-designed metro system. The two countries have also found common ground in their opposition to U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. It was China that helped Iran kick-start its nuclear weapons program back in the 1980s,...

Drones, Pakistan and Future Wars

by Scott Nicholas Romaniuk For over a decade, United States’ Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), commonly referred to as drones, have been the primary instruments for secret strikes against suspected terrorists in Pakistan. Over the past decade, the number of strikes have risen significantly, resulting in roughly 2,500-4,000 deaths in some 422 strikes. Pressure has been building continuously on the US and the Obama administration for their increasing reliance on the drone strikes as part of their counter-terrorism policy in Pakistan and a handful of other countries as well, against the backdrop of Obama’s speech in May 2013 in which he stated that, “Before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured.” The casualty component is the basis for intensive debate about drone usage and what detractors of the application of drone technology in this manner refer to as inhumane warfare. Drones are almost never spoken of in terms of the intricate yet critical role that they have played (not just in the past 15 years) in symbolizing the operating state’s (government and people) cultural principles and desire to improve the conditions of warfare. The US, along with the principle drone powers, like the United Kingdom (UK), and Israel, as well as some newcomers such as Pakistan and China (which is thought to fly armed drones but has yet to demonstrate their military application) have done much to fulfill this position. When Pakistan was added to this list of militarized drone states, a relatively muted response was observed. Indeed, Pakistan continues to garner little attention for allegedly using militarized drones to attack terror activists within its borders. These countries operate in what Robert Farley refers to as the “Golden Age of Drones,” the leading pack of drone technology countries and users will continue to grow. Drones were primarily tasked with intelligence gathering duties, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR)...

Making Sense of The CPEC Controversy — II

By Rafiuallah Kakar In my last article, I deconstructed the government’s claims about having prioritised the western route of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In this piece, I critically examine the various justifications advanced by those defending the prioritisation of the eastern route. The federal government claims that China is investing $35 billion in different energy projects with Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) having the highest share, followed by Balochistan and Punjab. This is foreign direct investment (FDI), meaning that the Pakistan government has no say in deciding the location of the projects. Moreover, it has also been claimed that China prefers the eastern route and that there is no Chinese investment for constructing new roads. While Chinese investment preferences should be respected, the federal government should not be oblivious to its negative distributional impact. Empirical evidence shows that FDI increases regional inequality in low and middle-income countries since the many different regions of a country usually do not receive it in equal measure. Nevertheless, the government through various policy instruments can mitigate the negative distributional impact of FDI on the state of regional equality. In this regard, China’s example is very relevant. In China, FDI has been concentrated on strongly urbanised coastal regions and has been a major driving force behind the strong increase in regional inequalities in the 1980s and 1990s. However, the Chinese government has implemented special development programmes for the lagging western part of the country, which seemed to have been quite successful. As a matter of fact, the CPEC is a part of the efforts aimed at bringing the underdeveloped western parts of China on a par with the rest of the country. Rather than following the Chinese way, the Pakistan government has ostensibly let the market shape and determine public policy choices. Out of the $21 billion worth of “priority...

CRSS China Watch – January 29 2016

In a meeting with Aabraj group on January 28, 2016 for the CPEC project, Mr. Ahsan Iqbal, minister for planning, development and reform underlined that Pakistan has become an attractive destination for foreign direct investment. The improved security condition and contemporary accelerated economic growth envisage Pakistan to be in the top 25 economies of the world by 2025, he added.[1] The CPEC project has enabled Pakistan to attract foreign aid and financial assistance from China for further power and energy projects. According to the sources at Alternate Energy Development Board, upto two billion dollars have been invested in alternate energy projects, so far. China plans to offer 500 million dollars for the development of solar and air power projects.[2] Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) Chairman Nisar Muhammad Khan told the Senate Standing Committee on Finance on 28 January, 2016 that to ensure the verification of Certificates of Origin, value and description of imported goods under Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and China, an electronic data exchange system has been established. This would help reducing scams in the submission of manual certificates by importers.[3] [1] http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/94436-CPEC-makes-Pakistan-investment-destination [2] http://www.thenewstribe.com/2016/01/29/china-to-provide-pakistan-with-500-million-usd-for-power-projects/ [3] http://www.brecorder.com/taxation/181/11166/