Current Projects

A New Hotbed of Terror

by Imtiaz Gul Two major events on February 2 appear to provide strong evidence of the presence of the battered Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in eastern Afghanistan. They also make one understand the Afghan Unity Government’s worries about the emergence of the Islamic State (IS) in eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar. In short, they signal the need for a multilateral counterterrorism strategy. Security officials in Peshawar claimed on February 2 to have arrested Waheed Ali alias Arshad, previously dubbed “Terrorist A” – the main facilitator of the attack on the Bacha Khan University. The arrest was made in Nowshera. They said Arshad, who is said to be in his early 30s, had hired a taxi to take him to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border at Torkham. He has reportedly confessed that the planning of the attack on the university was carried out for six months in the Achin district of Afghanistan, which he said Khalifa Omar Mansoor was using as his base. The key Taliban commander had initially planned to target Abdul Wali Khan University in Mardan, but cancelled the plan because of the security arrangements on that campus. An equally surprising news the same day said there were joint Afghan-US airstrikes in the mountainous area of the Achin district in Nangarhar, which destroyed an Islamic State radio broadcast station and the group’s internet communications, among other facilities. The air raids killed five staff of the ‘Voice of Caliphate’ radio The air raids also killed 29 IS fighters, including five staff at the so-called “Voice of Caliphate” radio, according to provincial government spokesperson Attaullah Khogyani. The spokesperson said the IS has established its headquarters in Achin, from where the terrorist group has been trying to expand its influence and stage attacks elsewhere in Afghanistan. A US military spokesman, Col Michael Lawhorn, also confirmed the operation but refrained from sharing operational details with reporters. Officials and residents in...

CRSS China Watch – February 4, 2016

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif asserted that the political hostility does not relate to the economic development of Pakistan. The Essential Services Maintenance (ESM) Act was extended to Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) for its advancement. The PM highlighted the rationale of projects being undertaken by the Chinese companies in Pakistan that are aiming to reduce the energy crisis. Sino-Pakistan joint production of the JF-17 Thunder aircraft was the most significant addition to Pakistan Air Force (PAF) indicating strong bilateral relations. The PM also emphasized that the government would not bear political opposition at the cost of economic development of state.[1] The government of Pakistan is keen to develop the first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Gwadar under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which would be operative by the end of next year. The development of the rest of the SEZ would also be following the pattern of SEZ at Gwadar.[2] The construction of Gwadar-Turbat-Hoshab motorway in Hoshab district is the main part of western, central and eastern routes of CPEC. Chief of Army Staff (COAS) and the PM specifically went to Balochistan to review the performance of workers on the motorway.[3] [1] http://www.geo.tv/latest/100821-PM-says-progress-on-one-side-protest-on-the-other [2] http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/letters/03-Feb-2016/sez-under-cpec [3] http://www.samaa.tv/pakistan/2016/02/pm-army-chief-in-balochistan-to-inspect-cpec-projects/

K-P’s Curriculum: Khan’s Real Fight

by Imtiaz Gul Imran Khan and company are getting ready to stage street protests again. The electoral fraud saga refuses to fade from Khan’s narrative. “I will continue fighting the forces of status quo,” he insists. While he draws derision from his detractors due to his fixation on what many consider is his ‘quest for power’, he faces a minefield of issues in the province his party is ruling. One of the battles he faces, and which all parties need to fight on a war-footing, is on the education front. This becomes even more pressing if a recent private review of some of the textbooks being taught in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s (K-P) schools is any indicator. The security threat in K-P stands out and has been spelt out by Umer Mansoor, the man who sent four suicide bombers to Bacha Khan University. In his video message, he threatened to target educational institutions because “this is the place where lawyers … military officers … members of the parliament are made … we will target and demolish the foundations”. The second and more critical front that Khan needs to take into account is that of the kind of material being taught in K-P’s textbooks. The review, undertaken by the PEAD Foundation and led by social activist and human rights defender Tahira Abdullah, attempts to scrutinise K-P’s public sector education curriculum and textbooks from 2002 to 2015. The review is an excellent tour de reason through the province’s textbooks and offers food for thought to all those who dream of a youth raised on ideals of diversity, inclusion, and respect for human and women rights. It also points out how little the textbooks offer in terms of inducing critical and analytical thinking among students. Consider what the last chapter in the class five Islamiyat textbook has to say. It lauds conquerors Muhammad bin Qasim and Mahmood Ghaznavi for their “occupation” of the subcontinent, and accuses Hindus of “plotting to subjugate and enslave Muslims of the subcontinent upon gaining...

CRSS China Watch – February 3 2016

The people of Balochistan always suspected the Chinese projects in the province. They alleged the government of Pakistan for disturbing the demographical balance merely in favour of Punjabi and Sindhi communities. The security of Chinese personnel working in Pakistan has been a matter of concern since the inauguration of Gwadar Sea port. Over 14,321 Chinese engineers/technicians working on 210 Chinese aided small and mega projects, particularly in Balochistan are not secured. This issue has triggered tension on both the sides. Consequently, Both Pakistan and China agreed on a four-layer security plan meant for over three thousand kilometer long trade route, connecting Xinjiang province to Gwadar sea port. Since the civilian government has assigned the task of protecting Chinese to Pakistan Army and Pakistan Navy, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) assured to protect the Chinese working in Pakistan. On the eve of Chinese New Year, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif greeted the Chinese personnel working in Pakistan. The PM stressed upon the time tested friendship of both the countries. He underlined that the government is strongly committed to the fast economic development of Pakistan, hence various deferred projects have been completed. It would never step back in fear of opposition at any cost.

Anticipating China’s ‘One-Belt One-Road ‘ in South Asia

by Cameron Munter The ‘One-Belt-One-Road’ initiative has the potential to have significant impact on both China and Pakistan. If general impressions are to be believed, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s One-Belt-One-Road project—at least as it plays out in Pakistan and its neighborhood—is either a major step toward Chinese projection of power outside its borders, or an example of the importance of domestic constituencies in Chinese foreign policy. The first camp believes that the hesitancy and inherent conservatism of China is finally giving way to a more muscular and confident role, and that Chinese claims that its investment in infrastructure to its west and south is “win-win” for everyone is actually cover for a new manifestation of its global role. The latter believes that the foreign implications of the plan are secondary to the real issue on the Chinese leadership’s mind: the domestic Chinese economic transformation that will see cheap labor producing mass exports replaced by higher value-added production that depends on technological savvy and education. On the other end of the One-Belt-One-Road project, in Pakistan for example, there is the prospect of an opening of an economy long stagnant, unleashing Pakistan’s potential in its labor force, accessibility of goods, and role in international trade. That, of course, is what the government of Prime Minister Sharif states, expecting that the 48 billion dollars expected to pour into infrastructure projects in Khyber Pakhtunkwa and Balochistan will transform the country, alleviating much of the poverty that has been increased by the violence and insecurity of recent decades. But it could in fact do no such thing. The economy of Pakistan has become more autarkic over time, as political elites defend their roles in traditional sectors like agriculture, textiles, and basic manufacturing, resisting the changes that have brought neighboring areas like Southeast Asia in to the world economy. Some suspect that the 48...

Anticipating China’s 'One-Belt One-Road ' in South Asia

by Cameron Munter The ‘One-Belt-One-Road’ initiative has the potential to have significant impact on both China and Pakistan. If general impressions are to be believed, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s One-Belt-One-Road project—at least as it plays out in Pakistan and its neighborhood—is either a major step toward Chinese projection of power outside its borders, or an example of the importance of domestic constituencies in Chinese foreign policy. The first camp believes that the hesitancy and inherent conservatism of China is finally giving way to a more muscular and confident role, and that Chinese claims that its investment in infrastructure to its west and south is “win-win” for everyone is actually cover for a new manifestation of its global role. The latter believes that the foreign implications of the plan are secondary to the real issue on the Chinese leadership’s mind: the domestic Chinese economic transformation that will see cheap labor producing mass exports replaced by higher value-added production that depends on technological savvy and education. On the other end of the One-Belt-One-Road project, in Pakistan for example, there is the prospect of an opening of an economy long stagnant, unleashing Pakistan’s potential in its labor force, accessibility of goods, and role in international trade. That, of course, is what the government of Prime Minister Sharif states, expecting that the 48 billion dollars expected to pour into infrastructure projects in Khyber Pakhtunkwa and Balochistan will transform the country, alleviating much of the poverty that has been increased by the violence and insecurity of recent decades. But it could in fact do no such thing. The economy of Pakistan has become more autarkic over time, as political elites defend their roles in traditional sectors like agriculture, textiles, and basic manufacturing, resisting the changes that have brought neighboring areas like Southeast Asia in to the world economy. Some suspect that the 48...

Monthly Drone Report: January 2016

The events detailed here occurred in 2016. These have been reported by US or Pakistani government, military and intelligence officials, and by credible media, academic and other sources, including on occasion Bureau researchers. Below is a summary of CIA drone strikes and casualty estimates for 2016. Please note that our data changes according to our current understanding of particular strikes. Below represents our present best estimate. You can access a complete spreadsheet of all strike and casualty data for Pakistan here. CIA strikes – Obama 2016 Total CIA drone strikes 1 Total reported killed: 5 Civilians reported killed: 0 Children reported killed: 0 Total reported injured: 2 Pakistan CIA drones killed five people in on January 9, including a Pakistan Taliban commander. It was the first US attack in Pakistan since September 1 2015. January 2016 2004 onwards CIA drone strikes: 1 422 Total killed: 5 2,493-3,994 Civilians reported killed: 0 423-965 The Bureau's timeline of events in the drone war in Pakistan in 2016. A database of all US drone strikes recorded by the Bureau in Pakistan from 2004 to the end of January 2016. Afghanistan The US launched an onslaught of jet and drone strikes in January, most targeting fighters from the so-called Islamic State - Khorasan group, the Afghan offshoot of the Iraq and Syria-based group. January 2016 2015 onwards US strikes: 43 230 Total killed: 193-196 988-1,413 Civilians reported killed: 1 57-86 The Bureau is collecting data on individual strikes in Afghanistan - summarised above. However not all strikes are reported in open source material. The US Air Force publishes an aggregate summary of strikes in Afghanistan without any casualty information, which we have reproduced below. US Air Force data for 2015 Total Close Air Support (CAS) sorties with at least one weapon release: 411 Total CAS sorties: 4,676 Total weapons released: 94 The Bureau's timeline of events in the drone war in Afghanistan so far in 2016. Yemen Two...

CRSS China Watch – February 2 2016

To manage the energy crisis in Pakistan, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has decided to evaluate the progress of Sahiwal coal power plant project. This 132-MW project is a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A 19-member delegation of the government and opposition from Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) Assembly had a meeting with the Chairman Parliamentary Committee on CPEC. In the meeting, they voiced their annoyance over not including GB in CPEC. They requested the committee on CPEC to visit GB in this regard. [1] Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Syed Tariq Fatemi had a meeting with the Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing. They discussed the connotation of bilateral relationship and underlined the need of frequent exchange of personnel in academia.[2] [1] http://nation.com.pk/islamabad/02-Feb-2016/mps-show-concern-over-not-including-gb-in-cpec [2] http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/front-top/276447-fatemi-for-enhanced-china-pak-intellectual-exchanges-academics-linkages.html

CRSS China Watch – February 2 2016

To manage the energy crisis in Pakistan, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has decided to evaluate the progress of Sahiwal coal power plant project. This 132-MW project is a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A 19-member delegation of the government and opposition from Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) Assembly had a meeting with the Chairman Parliamentary Committee on CPEC. In the meeting, they voiced their annoyance over not including GB in CPEC. They requested the committee on CPEC to visit GB in this regard. [1] Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Syed Tariq Fatemi had a meeting with the Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing. They discussed the connotation of bilateral relationship and underlined the need of frequent exchange of personnel in academia.[2] [1] http://nation.com.pk/islamabad/02-Feb-2016/mps-show-concern-over-not-including-gb-in-cpec [2] http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/front-top/276447-fatemi-for-enhanced-china-pak-intellectual-exchanges-academics-linkages.html

CRSS China Watch – February 2 2016

To manage the energy crisis in Pakistan, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has decided to evaluate the progress of Sahiwal coal power plant project. This 132-MW project is a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A 19-member delegation of the government and opposition from Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) Assembly had a meeting with the Chairman Parliamentary Committee on CPEC. In the meeting, they voiced their annoyance over not including GB in CPEC. They requested the committee on CPEC to visit GB in this regard. [1] Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Syed Tariq Fatemi had a meeting with the Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing. They discussed the connotation of bilateral relationship and underlined the need of frequent exchange of personnel in academia.[2] [1] http://nation.com.pk/islamabad/02-Feb-2016/mps-show-concern-over-not-including-gb-in-cpec [2] http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/front-top/276447-fatemi-for-enhanced-china-pak-intellectual-exchanges-academics-linkages.html