Current Projects

In Kabul, Scepticism Clouds Direct Talks

by Tahir Khan There is considerable uncertainty in Afghanistan regarding the fate of an intra-Afghan dialogue despite a certain degree of optimism about the long-awaited peace process. Afghan officials familiar with a four-nation initiative told The Express Tribune that negotiations could be a long-drawn-out affair, adding that expecting the talks to start in a few days was an unfair assessment. A source, meanwhile, denied Afghan officials have shared with Pakistan a list of ‘influential’ Taliban leaders that Kabul wants to see at the negotiating table. During its fourth meeting on February 23 in Kabul, the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) had invited Taliban factions and Hizb-e-Islami, the second largest Afghan resistance group, to join the talks by the first week of March in Islamabad. The QCG is made up of top officials from Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and the United States. Sources in Kabul said on Sunday the QCG members that approached the Taliban’s political office in Qatar had informed the meeting that the militia was ‘not very keen’ on joining the proposed talks. The QCG meeting in Islamabad had agreed on February 6 to approach the main Taliban faction in Qatar and the splinter group under Mullah Rasool’s command for their feedback to the participants of the Kabul meeting. “The US ambassador in Kabul, who represented his country at the fourth QCG meeting, told participants that he had received no briefing from Washington,” a source, who attended the meeting, told The Express Tribune. “The Chinese ambassador to Afghanistan informed the meeting that they had contacted the Taliban representatives in Qatar, but while they seemed unwilling to join the talks, they did not refuse outright to join the process.” He said Pakistan had talked to Taliban’s political representatives “but they are not keen on sitting across the table with Kabul. The Afghan side also confirmed they have sent messages to Taliban groups and Hizb-e-Islami, but they are still awaiting...

Brink of Change

by Zeeshan Salahuddin How did Pakistan do in 2015? Pakistan seems to be perched at the verge of a dramatic turnabout that will forever alter its conditions internally, its perception externally, and its future historically. Data from 2015, gathered by the Center for Research and Security Studies, suggests a sharp decline in violence across Pakistan. Fatalities have decreased significantly, and the overwhelming majority – over 62% – of those killed in the violence were militants, insurgents and criminals. This remarkable change is visible even in Karachi. In 2013, target killing was rampant, claiming 1,671 lives. A year later, the deaths dropped by about 25% to 1,263. In 2015, the number dropped by an astonishing 71%, to only 387 fatalities. Economically, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was hailed as a lifesaver. With a massive investment of $46 billion, Beijing seemed to emerge as a savior, willing to drag Pakistan into a new era of economic prosperity and global fraternity. The failure of domestic economic policies and problems with the tax net notwithstanding, CPEC was lauded as a concept, but criticized for its apparent lack of transparency. On the regional relations side, there was an ostensible thaw in ties with India in December. It all began with Ashraf Ghani’s remarks at the Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad, and a subsequent presser in Kabul, reiterating his desire to engage with Pakistan. Later that month, following Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s visit to the same conference, the Indian premier made an unprecedented, unscheduled visit to Lahore, furthering the idea that the two countries wanted to return to some semblance of normalcy. But a lot of the progress made in 2015 seems to have been undone as the second month of 2016 draws to a close. First, despite continued success in the FATA military offensive, reconciliation with the Baloch nationalists, and the urban pacification in Karachi, Interior Minister Chaudhry...

Media Should Help Creating a Positive Society That Believes in Philanthropy

Terror can radically change the wave of life. It prevents people from living a normal life. Anything that is divorced from reason is not doable, thus unreasonable policies should be avoided by India & Pakistan. Both India and Pakistan have to abandon policies that don’t stand to reason. We belong to a school that distinguishes itself from others with the belief in democracy.” These were the remarks made by Mr. Vinod Sharma, Political Editor, Hindustan Times while speaking at the Roundtable Forum organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) on “Indo-Pak Relations: Moving Beyond Acrimony and Suspicion”. Underpinning the need for respecting Institutional democracy, Mr. Sharma said that there were certain issues that had to be left to the state institutions rather. Health, education, environment are the issues which may be the direct responsibility of all including media and parliament. “Any prime minister's commitment to his country cannot be questioned. But the political leaders have to take risks to create and expand the constituency of peace. In politics, you have to take risks in order to break out of the gridlock of clichés and acrimony.” Said Mr. Vinod while adding that the civility of dialogue was absolutely essential for continuing talks. The civilly in dialogue - post Pathankot incident - shown by both governments is unprecedented. While Pathankot remains a huge challenge, but it can become an opportunity for mutually reassuring respective commitment on terrorism which is a common enemy. There is a firm resolve on our side to do anything that might help in investigation and taking case to its logical conclusion. He said that both Modi and Sharif must meet and if they had a degree of comfort with each other, they could take the process forward. We must stop demonizing each other’s national heroes. There should be an institutional mechanism for a regular discourse among historians. Purpose should be to get past the acrimonious past. We...

Sabawoon Showcase: Status of Afghan Refugees and Government Planning.

February 22, 2016, Peshawar: The Center for Research and Security Studies’ (CRSS) flagship radio program Sabawoon’s latest episode was about the status of Afghanistan’s refugees in Pakistan and the government’s plan for their safe return. The living standard of Afghan refugees, their businesses, entry and exit procedure of refugees on the Torkham boarder and issuance of fake Computerized National Identity Cards (CNIC) to some of the refugees in Pakistan were the key points of discussion. The program also highlighted the government agencies responsibility for the check and balance on refugees’ activities and the role of local government representatives in monitoring and registration. The program was aired under the theme of “Jarga Marraka” (alive spirits) on Monday. Ms. Zarin Zia, MP, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly, and Mr. Khalid Kheshgi, a journalist from KP, participated as a guest. A report from Bara, Khyber Agency, highlighted the entry and exit process at the Torkham boarder, the visa and registration of refugees in Pakistan. The report shared the details about the registration mechanism for refugees at Torkham border. Mr. Shams Ul Islam, Political Tehsildar, Khyber Agency, said, “We have established eight counters for registration, where each person’s entry and exit details are recorded. This system also checks the status of their visa on the passport that makes them eligible to enter Pakistan.” Mr. Qazi Fazul Ullah, a local, said, “We have a 2,250 kilometer long border with Afghanistan, therefore it is very hard to stop illegal entry of refugees in Pakistan. The border region is quite sensitive and there is a lack of planning from the government’s side as well.” Six callers shared their views in the program via telephone calls. They demanded that the government monitor the refugees’ activities in Pakistan and ensure their safe return to Afghanistan, as it is an increasing burden for Pakistan. A caller on the show, Mr. Aurangzeb Khan, said, “Refugees are...

US Failing to Explain Deadly Drone Policy: Report

The United States has made little or no progress in explaining how and why it orders lethal drone strikes, even as America’s reliance on the unmanned aircraft soars worldwide, a report found Tuesday. According to a study by the Stimson Center, a Washington-based nonpartisan think tank, President Barack Obama’s administration has failed to provide basic transparency into the drone program that has become a keystone in America’s counterterrorism efforts. “In terms of the justification for the program and all the legal basis – that still remains out of reach of the American public,” study author Rachel Stohl told AFP. Her paper gives American school-style grades in a “report card” to the US government, rating how it has improved its drone accountability since the Stimson Center wrote a damning report on the matter in June 2014. The report card gave the Obama administration an “F” — or a failing grade — in three areas: a lack of progress on releasing information on targeted drone strikes, developing better accountability mechanisms and explaining the US lethal drone program’s legal basis. A seemingly ever-expanding global war against extremist groups means the United States relies heavily on drones to monitor hostile lands and launch missiles at suspected extremists. Obama has drastically expanded the drone program during his tenure, but his administration provides scant information on strikes. Critics say many drone strikes kill civilians, and the aircraft alienate and radicalize local populations on the ground. Since June 2014, the United States has reportedly carried out lethal drone strikes in Afghanistan, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen, as well as against Islamic State jihadists in Iraq and Syria. The Stimson Center said at least a dozen countries now host US drone bases, including Ethiopia, the Seychelles and Yemen. “The targeted killing program has been the most precise and effective application of firepower in the history of armed conflict,” said Michael...

Travels At The Expense of The National Exchequer

by Imtiaz Gul This is the story of a government official — in his own words — who has served various governments in different capacities: staff officer, diplomat, federal secretary, since times immemorial. A recent report presented before the National Assembly, in fact, served as a trigger for him offloading some of his experiences below: I was indeed bemused to see the media go hoarse talking about the prime minister’s foreign trips and the costs incurred. The data presented in the National Assembly by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs tells us that the premier’s 65 foreign tours thus far have cost the national exchequerRs638.27 million. But why should this come as a surprise when the actual costs of such trips may be manifold? These trips are not restricted to just prime ministers or presidents. They apply to ministers visiting foreign countries. What is tabled before parliament is only part of the costs such trips entail. Few Pakistanis would know that a significant portion of the ministry of foreign affairs’ budget goes into servicing VVIPs’ foreign tours and this doesn’t show up in the prime minister’s or the president’s official tour expenses. Let me share with you what I had to put up with in the last two decade. It’s indeed a litany of frustrations over the reckless way public representatives and military rulers, as well as their accompanying cronies abuse public money. Among the prime ministers, presidents, martial law administrators, ministers and parliamentarians I have served, I can recount very few exceptions. Most insist on at least five-star stay and travel by expensive limousines. I had to, for instance, cough up embassy funds — which don’t count towards the official cost of the VVIPs’ departments — to entertain a number of businessmen and journalists accompanying former premier Shaukat Aziz on his several visits to Southeast Asia and elsewhere. Back in the 1990s, I suffered public humiliation when the spouse of a prime minister got angry with me...

Respecting Institutional Democracy Must for Bolstering Positive State-To-State Engagement

You can’t talk about peace in an atmosphere of attrition and distrust. Media can play an important role to help develop positive engagement between India and Pakistan. It is extremely important to respect institutional democracy in our respective countries. India and Pakistan share a very turbulent relationship where at times it arouses great hope and at times it leaves us deeply desperate and despondent. The threats the citizens in the two countries can distort their way of life. These were the personal views shared by Mr. Vinod Sharma, Political Editor, Hindustan Times, on “India Pakistan Relations: The Way Forward” during a lecture at School of Politics and IR, Quaid-e-Azam University. He is visiting Pakistan as part of “Discussion Fora: India Pakistan Relations” organized by the Islamabad based Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). He said that he was not making a presentation on behalf of the government of India or his newspaper and was sharing his personal assessment of India-Pakistan relations. “We have come to a stage where there is a degree of apprehension on our side and a degree of circumspection on your side. Apprehension on our side about what’s going to happen with regard to the threat that we perceive as emanating from Pakistan and circumspection from your side about India’s approach to the promised comprehensive dialogue to address Pakistan’s concerns”. “Rather than offering solutions to the problems of Kashmir or offering ideas as how to tackle terror that’s a common threat to both countries, I , as a media person and a student of mass communication, would share my perspective on how to create a climate for a meaningful engagement. You can’t talk about peace in an atmosphere of attrition and distrust. Many of the problems that we face in our respective countries directly involve the people of two countries.” Mr. Sharma said, “With the presence of threats around, you can’t get the way of life you want even when the governments are doing...

CRSS China Watch – February 19, 2016

Politics Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Reforms Ahsan Iqbal stated that the federal government is concerned towards the development of western route of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  He emphasized timely completion of western route and assured that any sort of discrimination with any part of the country, would not be acceptable for inclusive development of Pakistan. [1] Over the significant status of Balochistan in the CPEC, Chief Minister Nawab Sanaullah Zehri guaranteed to promote peace and stability in the region. [2] On eve of the launching of a special report based on Chinese President’s vision for peace and prosperity of China and the region, Ambassador Sun Weidong asserted that Chinese leadership is keen to reinforce strong bilateral relations by indulging Pakistan in projects from all walks of life. [3] Media In a meeting with Chinese media delegation, managing director Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) Masood Malik appreciated role of Pak China media in strengthening bilateral economic relations. Media would be a useful tool to promote the peaceful execution of the CPEC. [4] Security In order to secure CPEC, government of Gilgit Baltistan (GB) has ordered Pak Army to build its headquarter in the district of Diamer. Deputy Commissioner Usman Ahmad confirmed the provision of a brigade-level military infrastructure in the region. [5] Economy Finance Secretary Waqar Masood Khan said that Pakistan will see its annual economic growth rate surge to 7 percent in two years as it reaps the benefits from China and others investing more than $40 billion in infrastructure. [6] The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet approved a supplemental treaty to protect the Chinese and their local partners from chronic circular debt. [7]   _________________________________________________________________________ [1]  http://www.brecorder.com/top-stories/0/16766/ [2]...

Great guns

by Imtiaz Gul The F16s from the US will come with heightened expectations. On February 12, the US announced it will go ahead with the sale of eight F16 fighter jets to Pakistan. The $699-million deal also includes radar and electronic warfare equipment. “This proposed sale contributes to US foreign policy objectives and national security goals by helping to improve the security of a strategic partner in South Asia,” said a news release by Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency. It “improves Pakistan’s capability to meet current and future security threats. These additional F16 aircraft will facilitate operations in all weather, non-daylight environments, provide a self-defense/area suppression capability, and enhance Pakistan’s ability to conduct counter-insurgency and counterterrorism operations.” India summoned the US envoy to express “disappointment” India reacted sharply to the notification, summoning the US envoy in New Delhi to express its “disappointment” the very next day. “We disagree with their rationale that such arms transfers help to combat terrorism,” New Delhi said in a statement. What does Pakistan need these F16s for? And why is the Obama administration ready ignore protests by India, which the US president had so far been calling a natural ally? Does it really reflect a new sense of justice towards Pakistan by a hitherto-skeptical United States?  And what did India really want to achieve by publicly sharing its displeasure? Officials in Islamabad hailed the deal as a welcome step. The fighter planes manufactured by Lockheed Martin will certainly reinforce Pakistan’s precision strike capability in the mountainous border region with Afghanistan, defense experts and diplomats say, against the Pakistani Taliban and their splinter groups in South Waziristan, especially in the Shawal region, and Haji Mangal Bagh’s Lashkar-e-Islam in Khyber Agency’s Tirah valley. “This sale will increase the number of aircraft available to the Pakistan Air Force...

Annual Security Report – 2015

Introduction Compiling and contrasting the data on various forms of violence between 2013 and 2015, this annual report examines various aspects of militancy and the outcome of counter-militancy strategies being pursued by the country under the National Action Plan (NAP) and the counter-terror Zarb-e-Azb operation. To evaluate and assess the marked decline in violence, this report scrutinizes all incidents of violence, number of fatalities of anti-state actors, their victims, the identity of the victims and claimants of crime. It also reviews new methods of criminality and militancy that non-state actors deployed during the last three years and how terror and violence affect citizen’s lives. All assessments and reviews are based on open source data, mostly national print and electronic media. CRSS endeavors to ensure that the data is as accurate as possible within the available resources. However, it does not rule out errors and omissions, which are always a possibility in such statistical work. Such mistakes, nevertheless, do not grossly affect the overall outcome and conclusions of this report. Readers can approach CRSS for information related to this report. Alternately, you may want send your queries to mail@crss.pk, directly to Mohammad Nafees, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS – the author of the report (nafees@crss.pk) or Zeeshan Salahuddin, Senior Research Fellow (zeeshan@crss.pk). Casualties of Violence in the Country Casualties of violence in 2015 recorded a marked decline; from a loss of 7,611 persons in 2014, the number dropped to 4,653 persons this year, a fall of more than 40%. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) topped the rest of the country in terms of fatalities, denoting a trend that began in June 2014 with the launch of the military operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan. The number of fatalities in the largest Punjab province, however, registered a slight increase with 328 deaths from various forms of violence. Table 01: Fatalities from...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar