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Budget 2016-17: War costs receding; cumulative loss at $118.32
With Pakistan expected to face a loss of around $5.55 billion during the outgoing financial year, the Ministry of Finance has estimated that the cumulative loss to the national economy has reached $118.32bn since 9/11 due to the impact of war in Afghanistan. “Pakistan continues to be a serious victim of terrorism, including foreign-sponsored terrorism from our immediate neighbourhood,” says the Economic Survey 2015-16 in its dollar estimates of the losses suffered by the economy due to the fighting. The survey says the increase in violent extremism and terrorism in Pakistan was a fallout of instability in Afghanistan. The situation not only caused serious damage to the economy but has also been responsible for widespread human suffering due to indiscriminate attacks against the civilian population, it added. “During the last 14 years, the direct and indirect cost incurred by Pakistan due to incidents of terrorism amounted to $118.31bn equivalent to Rs9.86 trillion,” the survey said. However, the expected loss of around $5.55bn for the outgoing fiscal year is significantly less, compared to $9.24bn in the fiscal year 2014-15. Both direct and indirect losses to the economy resulting from terrorism are on the decline. Analysts say that higher expenditures against the fight against terror were expected after the APS attack in December 2014. The government has said that peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region are vital for the complete revival of Pakistan’s economy and to keep stability in the system. reporting by by Kalbe Ali, for Dawn Newspaper, originally appearing at http://www.dawn.com/news/1262431/budget-2016-17-war-costs-receding.
Civilian Abductions and Hostage-Taking On The Rise In Afghanistan
KABUL - The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) is deeply concerned by the spate of abductions, hostage-taking and summary executions carried out in recent days against passengers travelling in civilian vehicles. Armed Taliban personnel executed at least 10 men from a group of nearly 200 men, women, and children that they forcibly removed from three civilian buses on 30 May in the Ali Abad district of Kunduz province. Many passengers were mistreated by the assailants in order for them to identify those with connections to the Government or security forces. In addition to 10 men who were subsequently murdered, the fate of a further 10 passengers remains unknown. In a separate incident on 1 June, armed attackers abducted 25 civilian men and women who were travelling in two vehicles in the Balkh Ab district of the northern province of Saripul. All passengers were reported to be from the Hazara community. While four women and one elderly man were subsequently released, the fate of the 20 others remains unknown. “Taking civilians hostage is indefensible,” said Nicholas Haysom, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of UNAMA. “I call for the immediate and unconditional release of all civilians detained and a halt to this horrible practice.” Published on :https://unama.unmissions.org/unama-concerned-civilian-abductions-and-hostage-taking
The Drone War – May 2016
Pakistan A US drone strike killed the leader of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, as he travelled under an alias through Pakistan from Iran. His civilian taxi driver also died. This was the first drone strike in Pakistan to be conducted by the US military not the CIA. It was the first US strike in Balochistan, an area in the west of the country. It was just the second drone strike in Pakistan to be publicly discussed by the US president. It was the third drone strike this year, the first since February. Afghanistan With the opium poppy harvest over, the Afghan Taliban stepped up its operations in the south and north of the country. The US continued its counter-terrorism strikes against al Qaeda and the Afghan off-shoot of Islamic State. It also continued force protection strikes, defending international and Afghan troops from attack by the Taliban. The most significant of these self-defence attacks hit in Pakistan. The US killed the leader of the Taliban because of the threat he posed to US and Afghan forces in Afghanistan. The Bureau is collecting data on individual strikes in Afghanistan, summarised above. However not all strikes are reported in open source material. The US Air Force publishes an aggregate summary of strikes in Afghanistan without any casualty information, which we have reproduced below. The figures for May will be released in June. Yemen There were no reported US strikes in Yemen last month. Somalia A US strike on May 12 killed five al Shabaab fighters, the Pentagon said. The attack targeted al Shabaab fighters who had pinned down a squad of Ugandan peacekeepers. Kenyan and Somali forces attacked an al Shabaab checkpoint two days previously in the same region of Somalia. US forces were there "in an advise and assist role" but "did not participate in any kinetic operations," a spokesperson told the Bureau. Published on :...
Pakistan-India can learn from EU example: Carl Bildt says in CRSS public talk
Mr. Carl Bildt[1], veteran politician and thinker, and the former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister delivered a speech on "Global Security Challenges in the era of new geo-political Realignments: European Responses”. He was addressing a crowd of diplomats, academicians, journalists, lawyers, human rights activists, scholars and other notables at a public talk organized by the Embassy of Sweden and the Center for Research and Security Studies. EU cooperation is made more necessary than ever to deal with present and emerging challenges, especially given that the world is more dangerous and divided than it ever was before. He added that one of the most critical challenges is Brexit. Mr. Bildt also commented that the UN system is essential but not always delivering as is needed, the trade system especially needs some serious rethinking and reform. Inter-regional cooperation is critical to solve contemporary geo-political challenges, he said, and this line of thinking applies not only to the EU, but to any international region. This is especially true, he added, because the return of geo-politics does not apply Europe alone. Mr. Bildt minced no words when he said that invading other countries normally does not end up with you making friends. He stressed the need for a much more structured relationship of Europe with Turkey. Mr. Bildt said that Europe’s strength is diversity. He added that though the global economy is not in great shape, there is enormous growth in South Asia. Speaking about the tenuous relationship between India and Pakistan, he stressed that both countries needed to sort out not only Kashmir, but a range of other issues, such as security and trade. He said that the two nations could use the EU’s example to find common ground and solutions. The honorable Tariq Fatemi, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, graced the gather as the chief guest. He asked whether the new world order be more just, more peaceful and based on...
What Drives Our Irrationality?
by Imtiaz Gul A brief encounter with a couple of schoolchildren in southern Punjab recently left me baffled. They study at one of the Cambridge-inspired upscale chains of schools. I had asked them about Pakistan-US-India relations and the response was as follows: the US is after Pakistan; it wants to do bad things to us; India wants to break up Pakistan. Why does it want to do so, I confronted them. They grappled with the question for a few moments and then went quiet because nobody had tutored them on ‘why others conspire against Pakistan’. Growing curious, I probed them a little on the sources of their views and found out that not only teachers at the school but also their drivers and guards were instrumental in shaping their narrative. Clearly, the emotional, irrational clatter on 24/7 television, too, considerably coloured their views. It was not the first time I heard a partially skewed version on what other countries do or may want to do to Pakistan. In interactions even with senior students and often with college and university teachers, I have come across similar thoughts streams. And this entails a primary question as to what breeds and feeds such narratives: the establishment, the media or the curricula? And how do these feed into the socio-political instability that Pakistan is currently going through. Is the Islamic history and Pakistan Studies they are being taught the main culprits for nurturing unreasonable thinking. Or are the collective omnipresent incompetence and failures at the state level the primary drivers of this sense of instability and uncertainty? Or probably a combination of all these? Broadly, at the heart of Pakistan’s current predicament are two drivers: external and internal. Externally, there are the various manifestations of geo-politics and regional alignments, such as the Indo-Afghan-American strategic alliance that globally projects a particular negative image of Pakistan. Relations with India and Afghanistan, too, constitute...
Chabahar Vs Gwadar
by Syed Mudassir Ali Shah INDIA and Iran concluded a long-awaited port deal in Tehran on Wednesday, lending a big boost to efforts for promoting regional trade. The Chabahar port near the Iranian border with Balochistan reflects Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s keen interest in forging robust trade links with Central Asia, including landlocked Afghanistan. In 2003, the two sides had agreed to execute the project, bypassing Pakistan, but the venture made slow progress due to Western curbs on Iran over its controversial nuclear programme. The port’s expansion is expected to whittle down transport costs and cut freight time from India to Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. Chabahar provides India an easier land-sea route to Afghanistan, where it has fostered close security cooperation and economic interests over the years. New Delhi has already spent $100 million on building a 220-kilometre road in the Nimroz province of Afghanistan. The road will be extended to Chabahar. Chabahar provides India an easier land-sea route to Afghanistan. Afghanistan is expected to sign a tripartite transit trade agreement on using the port as an alternative route, which could jack up bilateral trade to $3 billion from $700-800 million. The project’s strategic nature is illustrated by its location along the coast from the Chinese-funded Gwadar port in Balochistan. Noting the prospect of sanctions on Iran being lifted or eased, India plans to fast-track the plan. Modi’s sense of urgency in concluding trade pacts with Iran and other Persian Gulf nations is apparently driven by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signing of $46bn energy and infrastructure development agreements with Pakistan last month. During his daylong visit to Tehran, India’s shipping minister inked with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi a memorandum of understanding on developing the port on the Gulf of Oman. Both sides overruled America’s call for India and other countries not to rush into doing business with...
Allies or Antagonists
by Imtiaz Gul Is the relationship strained and chequered because of the frustrations in Afghanistan, or is it a façade for something else? In an apparent damage-control attempt, David Hale, the US ambassador to Pakistan rushed for a meeting on May 25 with the boss of the General Headquarters (GHQ), General Raheel Sharif. What he heard from the host was a plain rebuke on the drone strike (that reportedly killed Taliban Mulla Mansoor) as an act of “sovereignty violation” that is detrimental to relations between both countries and is counter-productive for ongoing peace process for regional stability. Much earlier, in October 2013, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had described the issue of drones as a “major irritant in our bilateral relationship.” The use of drones is not only a continual violation of our territorial integrity but also detrimental to our resolve and efforts at eliminating terrorism from our country,” Sharif had said in an address at the US Institute of Peace in Washington. Even otherwise, Pakistan has routinely lodged protests since 2006, the CIA has conducted about 423 such strikes (according to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism). Drones linked to the US policy Did such protests also by the Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch deter the CIA from deployment of drones? Certainly not because the US thought differently. “US counterterrorism operations are precise, they are lawful, and they are effective, and the United States does not take lethal strikes when we or our partners have the ability to capture individual terrorists,” White House Spokesman Jay Carney had said in October 2013. The frequency of drone flights has considerably declined in the last two years or so but not because of objections or deference to concerns of other countries; most al-Qaeda operatives either got killed or left the region. The bottom line, as spelt out by diplomatic sources, is unambiguous: if a threat exists where Pakistan or any other country has ceded...
‘A Clear Signal’
by Imtiaz Gul “Our job is to help Afghanistan secure its own country, not to have our men and women in uniform engage in that fight for them,” told reporters in Vietnam on May 23. “On the other hand, where we have a high-profile leader who has been consistently part of operations and plans to potentially harm US personnel, and who has been resistant to the kinds of peace talks and reconciliation that ultimately could bring an end to decades of war in Afghanistan, then it is my responsibility as Commander-in-Chief not to stand by, but to make sure that we send a clear signal to the Taliban and others that we’re going to protect our people.” It is quite obvious that by taking out an Al Qaeda-linked Taliban leader on Pakistani soil in mysterious circumstances, President Barack Obama delivered a stern warning to all those his administration considers inimical to the peace process in Afghanistan and the interest of the US. But the entire episode – confused responses in Islamabad and contradictory postulations out of Washington on how “an obstinate” Mullah Mansoor was killed – seem to have plunged the Pakistan-US relationship into another phase of acrimony. Although David Hale, the US ambassador to Pakistan, seems to have rushed for a meeting with the boss of the General Headquarters (GHQ) Gen Raheel Sharif on May 25 to control further damage, one can fathom how much one meeting can mitigate the sense of humiliation and betrayal that Pakistan has endured through a controversial strike still shrouded in mystery. Will this “slap-first-apologize-later” conduct continue until the US and its allies believe Pakistan has bent fully in compliance? Many in Pakistan are saying the circumstances surrounding the attack are mysterious. If a predator drone dumped two hellfire missiles on the target vehicle, it should theoretically have blown it into pieces and its cargo and passengers should have been charred beyond recognition, they say. His travel documents filled the cyberspace...
345 Hanged During NAP’s FIrst Year: The NAP Tracker
A report on National Action Plan (NAP) has revealed that after lifting of moratorium on hanging, 345 hanged, but there is little correlation between deterrence and capital punishment, Report recommended the need of revamping Criminal Procedure Code, Penal Code and Evidence Act and providing foolproof security to judges, lawyers, witnesses and prosecutors against criminal elements. Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) released “National Action Plan (NAP) Tracker” a comprehensive first year audit report on NAP. Report consists on period from December 25, 2014, to January 24, 2016. The report views and opinion of experts, former police officials, columnists and researchers on the various themes related to the NAP, including Imtiaz Gul, Dr. Shoaib Suddle, Ahmer Bilal Soofi, Raza Rumi and others. Report findings said after the establishing of Military Courts, 40 individuals sentenced, most to death, there are 11 military courts, with more planned for AJK and GB, the ministry of interior has transferred 148 cases to the military courts. A total of 212 outfits are prescribed, Islamic State is the only one added since NAP enacted, Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation are on the watch list, implementation of restrictions is piecemeal and inconsistent, and funding is still a major issue. Report said that through counter terrorism efforts 2,159 terrorists have been killed and 1,724 have been arrested, a few ordinances have expanded civilian reach and capability and NACTA remains a stillborn baby and low on government’s priority list. The CPEC security is a high priority with resources and personal dedicated to safeguard it; the army seems to lead the charge in FATA, Balochistan, and Karachi. Due to CPEC, overall violence in the country has seen a sharp decline, the report reveals. Report said that sectarianism incidents decreased and total 1,340 killed and 1,940 injured in sectarian attacks in the last 3 years, sectarianism, like all other violence,...
345 Hanged During NAP's FIrst Year: The NAP Tracker
A report on National Action Plan (NAP) has revealed that after lifting of moratorium on hanging, 345 hanged, but there is little correlation between deterrence and capital punishment, Report recommended the need of revamping Criminal Procedure Code, Penal Code and Evidence Act and providing foolproof security to judges, lawyers, witnesses and prosecutors against criminal elements. Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) released “National Action Plan (NAP) Tracker” a comprehensive first year audit report on NAP. Report consists on period from December 25, 2014, to January 24, 2016. The report views and opinion of experts, former police officials, columnists and researchers on the various themes related to the NAP, including Imtiaz Gul, Dr. Shoaib Suddle, Ahmer Bilal Soofi, Raza Rumi and others. Report findings said after the establishing of Military Courts, 40 individuals sentenced, most to death, there are 11 military courts, with more planned for AJK and GB, the ministry of interior has transferred 148 cases to the military courts. A total of 212 outfits are prescribed, Islamic State is the only one added since NAP enacted, Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation are on the watch list, implementation of restrictions is piecemeal and inconsistent, and funding is still a major issue. Report said that through counter terrorism efforts 2,159 terrorists have been killed and 1,724 have been arrested, a few ordinances have expanded civilian reach and capability and NACTA remains a stillborn baby and low on government’s priority list. The CPEC security is a high priority with resources and personal dedicated to safeguard it; the army seems to lead the charge in FATA, Balochistan, and Karachi. Due to CPEC, overall violence in the country has seen a sharp decline, the report reveals. Report said that sectarianism incidents decreased and total 1,340 killed and 1,940 injured in sectarian attacks in the last 3 years, sectarianism, like all other violence,...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.