Current Projects

Analysis: The Human Cost of Operation Zarb-e-Azb

Operation Zarb-e-Azb in Waziristan is in terminal phase. Though belatedly, the military has cleared the region of safe haven and wherewithal of renegade militants. The campaign was secretive. Journalists were flown into Waziristan only where the top commander wished so. The Pakistan Army did not risk trying a US-NATO style embedded journalism, probably fearing that a damaging book or long-form pieces may emerge later. Since the Peshawar school attack, the national consensus to root out any terrorist safe haven in the country has been unflinching. However, not everyone is mindful of how huge is the mission within the country’s limited means. Neither media-persons nor the civil society protested against the secretive nature of the operation until the last trip to Waziristan. The chopper flew over valleys and mountain slopes dotted with villages and hamlets. A vast majority of empty residential structures were devoid of rooftops. The military officials justified it, stating it was the most viable manner to keep a vigil on the areas cleared of militants. According to them, the landscape is treacherous with sufficient camouflage to an insurgent or guerilla fighter to sneak back in, with limited risk of being spotted. The other option, however, could have been to deploy troops on each village in sufficient numbers to keep a vigil. The cost of reconstructing rooftops was thought to be less expensive than deploying armed manpower for security of each cleared hamlet and valley. Even if Pakistan was equipped and could afford, technology has serious limitations in counter-insurgency operations. Moreover, the terrain in the Waziristan region could not have been more challenging. Spiral of issues The issue is not only limited to missing rooftops. The remaining structures do not look strong enough to hold a roof whenever built. Having withstood tremors of arms explosions and harsh weather, the walls are now crumbling. The region also has to start afresh from livelihood and...

Indian Current Agenda to Suppress the Kashmiri Freedom Movement

Demographic change stricto-senso refers to spatial or temporal changes in population in response to birth, migration, ageing or death. The factors responsible for demographic change may be natural such as rapid birth rate or deaths due to different natural or human follies such as wars etc. The demographic changes may affect the population numerically, ethnically, culturally, psychologically, economically besides many other ways. In the case of the State of Jammu and Kashmir, the demographic change is not the current agenda to suppress the Kashmir freedom movement but a well designed, deliberate and malicious policy of the Government of India right from the day of partition of the subcontinent through different manners including annihilation of the Muslim populace of the State and submerging the survivors by drastic constitutional and administrative measures to suppress the freedom movement fearing to lose the State in case the numerical demography continued as such and  fair and impartial plebiscite takes place in the meantime. The first onslaught was genocide of lakhs of Muslim in Jammu followed by forced migration of lakhs of Muslims to take refuge in Pakistan. To add insult to the injury, lakhs of west Punjab Hindus were settled in Jammu. The Muslim population of the State was 77% in the census of 1941, while it is reduced to 68.2% in 2011 census. It is consistently being reduced by forced migration of Muslims due to the State oppression and settlement of non-Muslims under different pretexts, be it the business or industry, employment in the federal services and their trickled down affects. The demography is affected innumerably by administrative measures of prolonging the stay of Military personnels, originally allowed as 12 to 18 thousand personnels under UNSC Resolution dated 23 Dec 1952, to more than one million now, with concentration in the Valley and the Muslim majority belt of Jammu and Kargil leaving worst effects on economy and culture. After...

Equality, Justice and Fair Play

by Zeeshan Salahuddin This past Wednesday, I sat in the company of well-educated, well-meaning and ostensibly enlightened people at a gathering in Islamabad. Puns were spun, jokes cracked, people lambasted for one thing or another. It was supposed to be a light, carefree evening. Then a friend commented on how she was not happy with the services of her maid. “TheseChuhras are so lazy,” she said. The statement was said in such a nonchalant, flippant way, that it shocked several of us. As the conversation went on, it was revealed that she did not know the term was derogatory, and that she didn’t see a problem with it. Pundits and activists bemoan the state of minority rights and the institutionalization of the marginalization of minorities in Pakistan, but in our own homes, backyards and gatherings, we are surrounded by people who, despite their fancy Ivy League degrees, are fundamentally ignorant of why the term Chuhra is derogatory, insensitive, and offensive. Obviously this is anecdotal, and I don’t have access to any data that suggests that even the best educated among us are not aware of the historical and constitutionalized prejudice faced by monitories in Pakistan. But this does not change the fact that even those that have the power to change attitudes, shape beliefs, and alter history are not armed with the knowledge necessary for a person in their position. She did not know the term was derogatory While Muslims around the world are excelling in their careers in predominantly non-Muslim societies because of equal opportunity and respect for diversity, in our own land of the pure, we have institutionalized the marginalization of minorities. For instance, our Constitution promises everyone equal citizenry under Article 25, which says, “All citizens are equal before law and are entitled to equal protection of law.” However, the same constitution also prevents any non-Muslims from holding the office of the President (Article 41(2)) or Prime Minister (Article...

Three Tests for a Modern Pakistan

By William Milam  CRSS Note: In this incisive analysis, former US ambassador to Pakistan, William Milam proffers three ways that can transform Pakistan’s society, economy and political structure. He argues that readiness of the civilians for political and economic structural reforms can increase their leverage and decrease the military’s predominance of the country’s politics. Two weeks ago, I wrote of the three major tests for those who hope to transform Pakistan from its “muddle through” path toward mediocrity and eventual failure, toward a virtuous circle leading to a modern society, economy, and political structure. The tests are: 1) Will the elected politicians choose to, and be able to, break their chain of dependency on the religious parties? 2) Will these same politicians – who seem to have recognized the counterproductive nature of zero-sum politics –  change the patrimonial character of their parties to make them democratic and issue oriented, to reflect the urban society that Pakistan is becoming? 3) As a natural result of that, can the political parties grasp the nettle of structural economic reform, widening the tax net to bring in the entire society into a formal economy that raises adequate revenue to live within its means while providing the services, especially in health and education, to make Pakistan really competitive in a globalized economy? These questions concern civil society politicians and their parties, and would in any society cause anxiety about the future. Politicians in most countries are not known for their perspicacity, their analytic depth, or their willingness to take risks. In Pakistan, however, as all readers will already be mumbling to themselves, there is an “elephant in the room” which cannot be ignored. The army will determine whether civil society reform efforts of the kind listed above have even a prayer of being answered positively. And the answer to the question of where the army stands on the question of such root and...

Budget 2016-17: War costs receding; cumulative loss at $118.32

With Pakistan expected to face a loss of around $5.55 billion during the outgoing financial year, the Ministry of Finance has estimated that the cumulative loss to the national economy has reached $118.32bn since 9/11 due to the impact of war in Afghanistan. “Pakistan continues to be a serious victim of terrorism, including foreign-sponsored terrorism from our immediate neighbourhood,” says the Economic Survey 2015-16 in its dollar estimates of the losses suffered by the economy due to the fighting.   The survey says the increase in violent extremism and terrorism in Pakistan was a fallout of instability in Afghanistan. The situation not only caused serious damage to the economy but has also been responsible for widespread human suffering due to indiscriminate attacks agai­nst the civilian population, it added. “During the last 14 years, the direct and indirect cost incurred by Pak­istan due to incidents of terrorism amounted to $118.31bn equivalent to Rs9.86 trillion,” the survey said. However, the expected loss of around $5.55bn for the outgoing fiscal year is significantly less, compared to $9.24bn in the fiscal year 2014-15. Both direct and indirect losses to the economy resulting from terrorism are on the decline. Analysts say that higher expenditures against the fight against terror were expected after the APS attack in December 2014. The government has said that peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region are vital for the complete revival of Pakistan’s economy and to keep stability in the system. reporting by by Kalbe Ali, for Dawn Newspaper, originally appearing at http://www.dawn.com/news/1262431/budget-2016-17-war-costs-receding.

Civilian Abductions and Hostage-Taking On The Rise In Afghanistan

KABUL - The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) is deeply concerned by the spate of abductions, hostage-taking and summary executions carried out in recent days against passengers travelling in civilian vehicles. Armed Taliban personnel executed at least 10 men from a group of nearly 200 men, women, and children that they forcibly removed from three civilian buses on 30 May in the Ali Abad district of Kunduz province. Many passengers were mistreated by the assailants in order for them to identify those with connections to the Government or security forces. In addition to 10 men who were subsequently murdered, the fate of a further 10 passengers remains unknown. In a separate incident on 1 June, armed attackers abducted 25 civilian men and women who were travelling in two vehicles in the Balkh Ab district of the northern province of Saripul. All passengers were reported to be from the Hazara community. While four women and one elderly man were subsequently released, the fate of the 20 others remains unknown. “Taking civilians hostage is indefensible,” said Nicholas Haysom, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of UNAMA. “I call for the immediate and unconditional release of all civilians detained and a halt to this horrible practice.” Published on :https://unama.unmissions.org/unama-concerned-civilian-abductions-and-hostage-taking

The Drone War – May 2016

Pakistan A US drone strike killed the leader of the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, as he travelled under an alias through Pakistan from Iran. His civilian taxi driver also died. This was the first drone strike in Pakistan to be conducted by the US military not the CIA. It was the first US strike in Balochistan, an area in the west of the country. It was just the second drone strike in Pakistan to be publicly discussed by the US president. It was the third drone strike this year, the first since February. Afghanistan With the opium poppy harvest over, the Afghan Taliban stepped up its operations in the south and north of the country. The US continued its counter-terrorism strikes against al Qaeda and the Afghan off-shoot of Islamic State. It also continued force protection strikes, defending international and Afghan troops from attack by the Taliban. The most significant of these self-defence attacks hit in Pakistan. The US killed the leader of the Taliban because of the threat he posed to US and Afghan forces in Afghanistan. The Bureau is collecting data on individual strikes in Afghanistan, summarised above. However not all strikes are reported in open source material. The US Air Force publishes an aggregate summary of strikes in Afghanistan without any casualty information, which we have reproduced below. The figures for May will be released in June. Yemen There were no reported US strikes in Yemen last month. Somalia A US strike on May 12 killed five al Shabaab fighters, the Pentagon said. The attack targeted al Shabaab fighters who had pinned down a squad of Ugandan peacekeepers. Kenyan and Somali forces attacked an al Shabaab checkpoint two days previously in the same region of Somalia. US forces were there "in an advise and assist role" but "did not participate in any kinetic operations," a spokesperson told the Bureau. Published on :...

Pakistan-India can learn from EU example: Carl Bildt says in CRSS public talk

Mr. Carl Bildt[1], veteran politician and thinker, and the former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister delivered a speech on "Global Security Challenges in the era of new geo-political Realignments: European Responses”. He was addressing a crowd of diplomats, academicians, journalists, lawyers, human rights activists, scholars and other notables at a public talk organized by the Embassy of Sweden and the Center for Research and Security Studies. EU cooperation is made more necessary than ever to deal with present and emerging challenges, especially given that the world is more dangerous and divided than it ever was before. He added that one of the most critical challenges is Brexit. Mr. Bildt also commented that the UN system is essential but not always delivering as is needed, the trade system especially needs some serious rethinking and reform. Inter-regional cooperation is critical to solve contemporary geo-political challenges, he said, and this line of thinking applies not only to the EU, but to any international region. This is especially true, he added, because the return of geo-politics does not apply Europe alone. Mr. Bildt minced no words when he said that invading other countries normally does not end up with you making friends. He stressed the need for a much more structured relationship of Europe with Turkey. Mr. Bildt said that Europe’s strength is diversity. He added that though the global economy is not in great shape, there is enormous growth in South Asia. Speaking about the tenuous relationship between India and Pakistan, he stressed that both countries needed to sort out not only Kashmir, but a range of other issues, such as security and trade. He said that the two nations could use the EU’s example to find common ground and solutions. The honorable Tariq Fatemi, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, graced the gather as the chief guest. He asked whether the new world order be more just, more peaceful and based on...

What Drives Our Irrationality?

by Imtiaz Gul A brief encounter with a couple of schoolchildren in southern Punjab recently left me baffled. They study at one of the Cambridge-inspired upscale chains of schools. I had asked them about Pakistan-US-India relations and the response was as follows: the US is after Pakistan; it wants to do bad things to us; India wants to break up Pakistan. Why does it want to do so, I confronted them. They grappled with the question for a few moments and then went quiet because nobody had tutored them on ‘why others conspire against Pakistan’. Growing curious, I probed them a little on the sources of their views and found out that not only teachers at the school but also their drivers and guards were instrumental in shaping their narrative. Clearly, the emotional, irrational clatter on 24/7 television, too, considerably coloured their views. It was not the first time I heard a partially skewed version on what other countries do or may want to do to Pakistan. In interactions even with senior students and often with college and university teachers, I have come across similar thoughts streams. And this entails a primary question as to what breeds and feeds such narratives: the establishment, the media or the curricula? And how do these feed into the socio-political instability that Pakistan is currently going through. Is the Islamic history and Pakistan Studies they are being taught the main culprits for nurturing unreasonable thinking. Or are the collective omnipresent incompetence and failures at the state level the primary drivers of this sense of instability and uncertainty? Or probably a combination of all these? Broadly, at the heart of Pakistan’s current predicament are two drivers: external and internal. Externally, there are the various manifestations of geo-politics and regional alignments, such as the Indo-Afghan-American strategic alliance that globally projects a particular negative image of Pakistan. Relations with India and Afghanistan, too, constitute...

Chabahar Vs Gwadar

by Syed Mudassir Ali Shah INDIA and Iran concluded a long-awaited port deal in Tehran on Wednesday, lending a big boost to efforts for promoting regional trade. The Chabahar port near the Iranian border with Balochistan reflects Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s keen interest in forging robust trade links with Central Asia, including landlocked Afghanistan. In 2003, the two sides had agreed to execute the project, bypassing Pakistan, but the venture made slow progress due to Western curbs on Iran over its controversial nuclear programme. The port’s expansion is expected to whittle down transport costs and cut freight time from India to Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. Chabahar provides India an easier land-sea route to Afghanistan, where it has fostered close security cooperation and economic interests over the years. New Delhi has already spent $100 million on building a 220-kilometre road in the Nimroz province of Afghanistan. The road will be extended to Chabahar. Chabahar provides India an easier land-sea route to Afghanistan. Afghanistan is expected to sign a tripartite transit trade agreement on using the port as an alternative route, which could jack up bilateral trade to $3 billion from $700-800 million. The project’s strategic nature is illustrated by its location along the coast from the Chinese-funded Gwadar port in Balochistan. Noting the prospect of sanctions on Iran being lifted or eased, India plans to fast-track the plan. Modi’s sense of urgency in concluding trade pacts with Iran and other Persian Gulf nations is apparently driven by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signing of $46bn energy and infrastructure development agreements with Pakistan last month. During his daylong visit to Tehran, India’s shipping minister inked with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi a memorandum of understanding on developing the port on the Gulf of Oman. Both sides overruled America’s call for India and other countries not to rush into doing business with...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar