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Tactical Changes in Russia’s Foreign Policy and Iran's Caution

  Turkey’s readiness to restore relations with Moscow, Britain’s exit from the European Union, circulation of some rumors on the Green Continent about the need to revise relations with the Kremlin, increased willingness among Middle Eastern countries to develop relations with Russia, and forthcoming changes in the White House are all new opportunities, which provide Moscow with more options and more expanded maneuvering space in its foreign policy. Adoption of a pragmatic approach, on the other hand, makes it possible for the Kremlin from both theoretical and practical standpoints to make the most of these opportunities. Russia’s pragmatism is based on such principles as involvement in a positive game with all sides, the necessity of usefulness of action, the effectiveness of reaction, avoiding useless belligerence, strategic opportunism, as well as multitier and resilient identity. Within framework of this approach and to make it operational, effort is being made to create adequate maneuvering room for making tactical changes and taking the most advantage of the smallest opportunities. Russia’s military operations in Syria, from their sudden beginning to their sudden downturn, were an example of the application of Moscow’s pragmatic approach, which up to the present time, has produced “relatively” successful results. By starting those operations, Moscow met part of its interests, including by reminding the West and its regional allies of the importance of the geopolitical element and spheres of influence; protecting its geopolitical interests in Syria in medium terms, and strengthening the Russian coalition in the Middle East through interaction with Iran in Syria. On the other hand, by suddenly reducing its forces and military strikes in Syria, Moscow paved the way for meeting another part of its interests in relations with the West and its regional allies. With this consideration in mind, finding a more expanded space for “effective” maneuvering by Russia...

Obama Drone Casualty Numbers a Fraction of those Recorded by the Bureau

In a long-awaited announcement, the US government today gave its first assessment of the number of civilians killed in President Obama’s controversial drone programme. The US said it had killed between 64 and 116 “non-combatants” in 473 counter-terrorism strikes in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and Libya between January 2009 and the end of 2015. This is a fraction of the 380 to 801 civilian casualty range recorded by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism from reports by local and international journalists, NGO investigators, leaked government documents, court papers and the result of field investigations. The Bureau’s assessment that a total of at least 2753 people had been killed outside of declared battlefield was similar to the US government’s however – the White House put it at 2436. Bureau reporter Jack Serle said: “This data release is a welcome step towards greater transparency. However, we still don't have information on specific strikes, in particular several attacks that killed significant numbers of civilians, according to our monitoring. This makes it impossible to reconcile our civilian casualty figures with theirs. The White House hasn't even broken down the figures by year or by country, leaving us none the wiser as to how the drone war has progressed since the first strike of Obama's presidency, on January 23 2009, killed at least nine civilians." Jack Searle is the author of this report which can be found at: http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=0592afb78c924d61727f4da3c&id=b15824c5e0&e=28b3da6aaa

CRSS Quarterly Security Report Q2, 2016

The upsurge in violence recorded during last quarter (January – March, 2016) dropped significantly during this reporting period (April – June, 2016). That being said, the militants, the noose ever-tightening around them, appear to have made a strategic shift in terms of areas of operation and targets. Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif declared that the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb was over, as the most dreaded areas in North Waziristan had been cleared. The military operation carried out in the riverine areas of the South Punjab also ended during this quarter with successful clearance of the area from the notorious gangster Chotu Mazari and his associates. Other than these successes in the war on terror, a few high profile incidents of violence shocked the country. One of them was the brazen assassination of the popular Qawal, Amjad Sabri, during the holy month of Ramazan at one of the busiest locales in Karachi. This also caused concern about the presence of fully operations criminal elements in urban centers. To assess and evaluate what new challenges and threats are being faced by the country, this report makes use of the national print and electronic media sources. CRSS endeavors to ensure that the data is as accurate as possible within the available resources. However, it does not rule out errors and omissions, which are always a possibility in such statistical works. Such mistakes, nevertheless, do not grossly affect the overall outcome and conclusions of this report. Readers can approach CRSS for information related to this report. Alternately, you may send your queries to mail@crss.pk, directly to Mohammad Nafees, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS – the author of the report (mohammad.nafees@yahoo.com), or Zeeshan Salahuddin, Senior Research Fellow (zeeshan@crss.pk) – the editor. Download

Modi’s Misjudgment

In a rare interview with Times Now, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said it was hard to decide who to speak to about peace in Islamabad. “We want to live in harmony and peace,” he said, but asserted that it was hard to figure out who in Pakistan he should negotiate with – the elected government, or some other actors. Without naming it, he took a swipe at the Pakistani military: those entrusted with negotiating must go about their business, and those tasked with defending the borders must fulfil the responsibility entrusted to them, he said, assuming the tone and tenor that most US officials had adopted after the March 2008 elections in Pakistan. Modi implied that India had done its part in convincing the world and internationally isolating Pakistan for its alleged support of terrorism, and the ball was now in Pakistan’s court. Russia’s interest in Pakistan is growing This probably is the dilemma that most Indian leaders and US officials have faced. Despite knowing Pakistan’s peculiar civil-military context, they keep wondering whether they should or shouldn’t talk to the military, even when they had the most pliant General Pervez Musharraf in charge in Islamabad. Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh simply went into a “wait and see” mode when the General, infatuated with a sense of absolute power, threw the gauntlet of selected zonal “demilitarization” in Kashmir in 2006. During a conference at Stockholm in early 2008, Stephen Cohen, the renowned American expert on South Asia, had expressed his confusion over the “Indian dithering” in initiating a dialogue on Musharraf’s plan. Ironically, most Indian analysts at the time would describe General Musharraf as a “single window clearance” on all bilateral issues, but soon after his resignation, both the Indian officials and intelligentsia began questioning the “authority” of the civilian government. Eight years down the lane, another Indian premier is asking the same question, as if he is totally oblivious to...

Will Pakistan Learn From Its Mistakes With Afghanistan To Save Its Ties With Iran?

Even though tensions between Islamabad and Kabul over the Torkham border crossing are yet to be settled, Pakistan has laid the foundation of “Pakistan Gate” near the Iranian border in Taftan. The gate is said to check any illegal trade occurring via Iran, and also help the border guards effectively manage and monitor the border crossing What makes this gate different from the one in Torkham is that it is not only built with mutual consent from both Pakistan and Iran – but also on special demand from Tehran, as it has already built a gate of its own inside its border at Mir Java, in Zahedan. Where one gate at Torkham has evoked sentiments of hatred, ultra nationalism and conflict creating an environment of hostility, the other gate at Taftan has largely remained a subtle and calm affair. On the face of it, the construction of the Pakistan Gate might appear to be business as usual – where the gate is aimed at promoting legal trade and tourism. Yet, the recent killing of Mullah Mansoor, who is said to have entered Balochistan via Iran, might have served as a chief catalyst for Pakistan’s urgency on the matter. Furthermore, the growing sectarian attacks on both sides also seem to have contributed towards the construction of these gates. Considering the length and porous nature of the border that both the countries share, initial prospects of the gates, as witnessed in case of Torkham, remain bleak. The stark contrast in how events unfolded on both the borders also symbolises the historical ties between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Where Iran and its Shah were the first countryto recognise and visit Pakistan after its partition, Afghanistan was the only country thatrefused to accept Pakistan as an independent state. This symbolic and amicable construction on the Pak-Iran border is a testament to strong and stable ties between both the countries. Yet, the Pakistani electronic and social media was abuzz with the recent opening of Chabahar port in Iran. Speculation was...

Pakistan’s Chance

Battle lines in the Asia Pivot have probably never been more pronounced. The Obama Administration went out of its way to in its bid to get India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) confirmed. China and several other countries, on the other hand, stood in the way, urging a merit-based approach. Similarly, Beijing and Moscow facilitated the entry of both India and Pakistan into the security-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Surprisingly, the US advocacy for India prompted Senator Ed Markey to warn the administration at a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on US-India relations in May: “What you are doing is creating an action-reaction that is leading to a never-ending escalation cycle that ultimately leads to development of nuclear weapons, including battlefield nuclear weapons.” Markey stated this while addressing the Indian-origin US Assistant Secretary for South Asia Nisha Biswal. What should still be a cause for incessant pro-active Pakistani diplomacy is the statement by a senior US official who told the Press Trust of India that India would get full membership of the NSG by the end of the year, despite the majority of the 48 members supporting the Chinese-led opinion that intending members must first sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Almost at the same time, US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Olson delivered a near warning to all in the region. At the Atlantic Council he said that the strike that killed Mullah Mansoor “should make clear to all parties in the region that the US is fully prepared to protect its interests”, underlining that continued military presence and participation in combat operations in Afghanistan were tied to “US interests”. A couple of weeks earlier, the US administration had defaulted on its promise of providing eight “subsidised” F-16s to Pakistan because of Congressional refusal. The controversy around India’s NSG membership illustrates the new...

Ulasi Police Showcase: Police Reforms in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province

The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) has broadcast three more episodes of its new flagship radio program “Ulasi Police” in the districts of Mardan, Peshawar, and Charsadda on June 14, 15, and 16 respectively. “Ulasi Police” is an awareness and advocacy campaign undertaken by the Center - as part of USAID Small Grants and Ambassadors’ Fund Program - to strengthen the rule of law in KP province by promoting and disseminating the significant police reforms aimed at incorporating local communities’ policing needs and international human rights standards. The endeavor aims to ameliorate the trust deficit between the public and police, and help KP police become an accountable and community-focused police force. Role of Model Police Stations: Ulasi Police aired from Pakhtunkhwa Radio, FM-92.6 Mardan, on June 14, 2016 focused on the role and importance of model police stations. The discussion points included reforms in KP police, the aims and objectives of model police stations, difference between a normal police station and model police station, process converting a normal police station into model police station, its role in crime reduction, police attitude and behaviors towards public, complaints registration mechanism and the progress of model police stations. Mr. Arshad Ali, Sub-Inspector/ Principal Staff Officer Mardan, said: “Model Police Station is an initiative of IGP, KP to equip all police stations in the province with modern facilities to better facilitate the public and reduce burden on police. Until now, we have four model police stations in the district Mardan, and hopefully we will convert all police stations into model police stations sooner than later.” The other guest participant of this radio show was Mr. Saeed Ahmad, lawyer, district courts, Mardan. Role and Importance of Women Policing: Ulasi Police aired from Pakhtunkhwa radio FM-92.2 Peshawar on June 15, 2016 focused on the role and significance of women policing in Khyber...

Ulasi Police Showcase: Police Reforms in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province

The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) aired three new episodes of its new flagship radio program “Ulasi Police” in the districts of Mardan, Peshawar, and Charsadda on June 07, 08 and 09 respectively. “Ulasi Police” is an awareness and advocacy campaign undertaken by the Center - as part of USAID Small Grants and Ambassadors’ Fund Program - to strengthen the rule of law in KP province by promoting and disseminating the significant police reforms aimed at incorporating local communities’ policing needs and international human rights standards. The endeavor aims to ameliorate the trust deficit between the public and police, and help KP police become an accountable and community-focused police force. Police Assistance Lines (PAL) and Police Access Service (PAS): Ulasi Police aired from Pakhtunkhwa Radio, FM-92.6, Mardan on June 07, 2016 discussed the functions and purposes of Police Assistance Lines (PAL) and Police Access Service (PAS) in district Mardan. It also discussed how efficient and effective PAL in Mardan was, its progress since its inceptions and different types of one-window corporate style solutions to the public for the resolution of their day-to-day affairs through the provision of services including: Theft reporting Lost Items reporting Extortion reporting Child lost and found Tennant Information Form and rental agreement reporting Police Security Clearance Certificate Police Character Certificate CNIC verification Vehicle verification Legal advice Women counter Traffic license and excise document attestation The mechanism of Police Access Service (PAS) was also discussed which not only provides prompt and swift police response to the public complaints but also enhances police accessibility. The police department has established a well-equipped Police Access Service Center in Central Police Office where citizens from across the Province access the police through a SMS and the concerned police officers contact the complainants within 24...

CHINA WATCH [June 20-26]: Heads of State Summit in Tashkent

The week of June 20-26 was dominated by the Heads of State Summit in Tashkent this week, and progress on both CPEC and associated rhetoric dominated the news. Security related matters remained a tertiary concern. Presidential Meetings President Mamnoon Hussain and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in Tashkent. In meeting they reiterated their commitment to join hands to promote regional peace and stability. President Mamnoon Hussain appreciated Chinese support for the membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Nuclear Supplier’s group (NSG). Pakistan also signed the Memorandum of Obligations (MoO) on Froiday with the objective of obtaining the full membership of the SCO at its Heads of State Summit in Tashkent.[1] Simultaneously, Chinese official media has endorsed for Pakistan's inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). It has also supported Pakistan for authentication of its nuclear record.[2] China was elected by a landslide vote, 182 out of 185 total votes cast, to become a member of the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC).[3] China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) The government disapproved the condition of international competitive bidding in Chinese deals and permitted the construction of Eastbay expressway that would connect the Gwadar Port with the Makran Coastal Highway, passing along the Eastbay of the city of Gwadar.[4] This move is likely to continue to expedite progress on the CPEC, a crucial megaproject in collaboration with the Chinese government that promises to be a “game changer” for Pakistan. Additionally, Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Li Huilai asserted that the government of china is all set to support Pakistan in possible manner for the effective implementation of the CPEC projects.[5] Various statements from a range of notables this week also underlined the importance of CPEC for Pakistan. The Managing Director of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Nadeem Naqvi has claimed that market capital would increase...

CHINA WATCH [June 20-26]: Heads of State Summit in Tashkent

The week of June 20-26 was dominated by the Heads of State Summit in Tashkent this week, and progress on both CPEC and associated rhetoric dominated the news. Security related matters remained a tertiary concern. Presidential Meetings President Mamnoon Hussain and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in Tashkent. In meeting they reiterated their commitment to join hands to promote regional peace and stability. President Mamnoon Hussain appreciated Chinese support for the membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Nuclear Supplier’s group (NSG). Pakistan also signed the Memorandum of Obligations (MoO) on Froiday with the objective of obtaining the full membership of the SCO at its Heads of State Summit in Tashkent.[1] Simultaneously, Chinese official media has endorsed for Pakistan's inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). It has also supported Pakistan for authentication of its nuclear record.[2] China was elected by a landslide vote, 182 out of 185 total votes cast, to become a member of the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC).[3] China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) The government disapproved the condition of international competitive bidding in Chinese deals and permitted the construction of Eastbay expressway that would connect the Gwadar Port with the Makran Coastal Highway, passing along the Eastbay of the city of Gwadar.[4] This move is likely to continue to expedite progress on the CPEC, a crucial megaproject in collaboration with the Chinese government that promises to be a “game changer” for Pakistan. Additionally, Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Li Huilai asserted that the government of china is all set to support Pakistan in possible manner for the effective implementation of the CPEC projects.[5] Various statements from a range of notables this week also underlined the importance of CPEC for Pakistan. The Managing Director of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) Nadeem Naqvi has claimed that market capital would increase...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar