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Update on the Human Costs of War for Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001 to mid 2016
Afghanistan and Pakistan have been engaged in their current wars for nearly 15 years, and the cost in human lives and health has been enormous: the combined death toll is 173,000 dead and more than 183,000 seriously wounded. The wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan remain interrelated, not least because the border is porous between the two countries, but also because the United States has put resources into the fighting on both sides of that border. On 6 July 2016, U.S. President Barack Obama announced that the planned reductions of U.S. troops in Afghanistan would be delayed. He said, "I strongly believe that it is in our national security interest, especially after all the blood and treasure we’ve invested in Afghanistan over the years, that we give our Afghan partners the very best opportunity to succeed." The war has cost the United States more than $800 billion in direct appropriations to the State Department and Department of Defense. As the Costs of War project has documented, there are many other economic costs in the US, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Over the past nearly 15 years, approximately 111,000 people have been killed and more than 116,000 people have been injured in the war in Afghanistan. Of these, more than 31,000 of the dead are Afghan civilians. The war in Pakistan, which began as Al Qaeda and the Taliban fled from Afghanistan into the northwest region of Pakistan in 2001, has caused almost 62,000 deaths and an additional 67,000 injuries. These numbers are approximations based on the reporting of several sources. The focus in this report is on direct deaths and injuries caused by wartime violence. Indirect deaths, due to the effects of war damage to infrastructure and livelihoods, and usually more numerous than direct deaths, are discussed elsewhere. Afghan Civilian Death More than 31,000 civilians have been killed in direct violence in Afghanistan since the 7 October 2001 invasion by the United States. But this number is necessarily an...
What Is Important?
We were at a counter-radicalisation workshop in Washington (September 29) when the news of the Indian “surgical strike” struck us all — a few subject specialists drawn from Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia and of course the United States. Some reacted with surprise, others with a sense of shock and fear. Discussions with other experts on conflict evoked similar responses. But most concurred around the question as to whether such brinkmanship was necessary in a region, where according to the World Bank, hundreds of million live below the poverty line. The majority of experts, particularly those from the Middle East and Africa — all familiar with the debilitating consequences of conflict and jingoism — wondered whether India needed to take the extreme step with an inherent risk of things spinning out of control. Some questioned the Indian claim about the surgical strike, others wondered about the rationale if it at all were a strike as such because it didn’t involve either precision weapons such as guided missiles or combat helicopters. A former US colonel explained that the term was not part of the US military’s and the only thing the US Department of Defense recognises as a surgical strike similar to what the Indians have been claiming is called a “raid.” “Modern technology affords militaries the capabilities to use precision guided weapons in “surgical strikes.” That was not the case in this latest incident between India and Pakistan as far as I know,” the colonel said. But regardless of what this was, the World Bank report “Poverty and Shared Prosperity,” released in September, offers statistics for all those leaders, particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who vow to fight poverty; on the state of poverty in South Asia; it puts the number of this population in India at 21.25 per cent (over 240 million), and 8.3 per cent in Pakistan (over 16 million). Some 58 per cent Indians make $3.10 a day, compared to 45 per cent in Pakistan. Drawing on this report,...
Full Text of Agreement Between The Government Of Islamic Republic Of Afghanistan (Goira) & Hezb-E-Islami Of Afghanistan Led By Gulbuddin Hekmatyar
(Signed Monday September 26, 2016) Article One: With strong and unshakable faith to Allah the Almighty and sincere believe in holy religion of Islam, both parties oblige themselves to unconditional obedience of the lofty principles of this religion and set it as their goal. Article Two: Both parties believe that the religious principles and guidelines would be the main pillar of all laws and government performances, as the second and third articles of the country’s constitution emphasize too that the holy religion of Islam is the official religion of the Government of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and no law could be against the believes and orders of Islam, the holy religion in Afghanistan. Article Three: Both parties believe that all people both man and woman enjoy equal right and responsibility before law indiscriminately and without concession. The single and united Afghanistan belongs to all brave tribes and people of this territory and national sovereignty is the unquestionable right of nation that enforces it directly or through its elected representatives. Article Four: Both parties support withdrawal of foreign military forces based on agreements for strengthening of national sovereignty and interests of the country and believe that through this unity and solidarity, the inhabitants of Afghanistan can halter crisis stem from war and confront threats. Second Chapter The parties’ commitments First section: commitments of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Article Five: The GoIRA guarantees that with the signing of this agreement, in contact with the UNSC and all concerned governments and bodies starts removal of sanctions imposed on the HIA, its leader and members with submitting of official request for removal of sanctions for permanent termination of war and restoration of a sustainable peace and security in Afghanistan. The Afghan government is also obliged to make all possible efforts using all available resources in this direction...
Full Text of Agreement Between The Government Of Islamic Republic Of Afghanistan (Goira) & Hezb-E-Islami Of Afghanistan Led By Gulbuddin Hekmatyar
(Signed Monday September 26, 2016) Article One: With strong and unshakable faith to Allah the Almighty and sincere believe in holy religion of Islam, both parties oblige themselves to unconditional obedience of the lofty principles of this religion and set it as their goal. Article Two: Both parties believe that the religious principles and guidelines would be the main pillar of all laws and government performances, as the second and third articles of the country’s constitution emphasize too that the holy religion of Islam is the official religion of the Government of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and no law could be against the believes and orders of Islam, the holy religion in Afghanistan. Article Three: Both parties believe that all people both man and woman enjoy equal right and responsibility before law indiscriminately and without concession. The single and united Afghanistan belongs to all brave tribes and people of this territory and national sovereignty is the unquestionable right of nation that enforces it directly or through its elected representatives. Article Four: Both parties support withdrawal of foreign military forces based on agreements for strengthening of national sovereignty and interests of the country and believe that through this unity and solidarity, the inhabitants of Afghanistan can halter crisis stem from war and confront threats. Second Chapter The parties’ commitments First section: commitments of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Article Five: The GoIRA guarantees that with the signing of this agreement, in contact with the UNSC and all concerned governments and bodies starts removal of sanctions imposed on the HIA, its leader and members with submitting of official request for removal of sanctions for permanent termination of war and restoration of a sustainable peace and security in Afghanistan. The Afghan government is also obliged to make all possible efforts using all available resources in this direction...
China- Pakistan: CPEC- A New Powerhouse
Since its inception in 1951 the Sino Pakistan relationship, after some initial coughs, has always been on a rising curve. The strength in their ties comes from mutuality of strategic interests, tested interdependency in moments of despair and need, willingness to transform relations to meet new and emerging challenges and finally unstinting public support in both countries for each other. In this context, each of the tired cliché used for Sino China relations are not far off from reality, and thus the relations remain an envious model of inter state relations. No other country including Saudi Arabia enjoys this kind of undivided support in Pakistan. Out of the six decades of friendship, two decades were mostly utilized to deepen mutual perceptions to secure each other’s trust and how best they could help each other at the regional as well as global level. This period was utilized to establish the rock solid foundation to bilateral relations. The remainder decades, starting from mid 70s, witnessed physical manifestation of commitments and vows emanating from strategic understanding in the earlier phase. The depth of the conflict free multidimensional bilateral relations defies historic trends. Between two neighbors such deep relations are an exception rather than a norm. No change in government or leadership in either of the two countries, or the demise of the Cold War era and its associated alliances or subsequent readjustments affected their relationship. As time passed, the friendship assumed the status of strategic permanency. Both iron friends are now looking beyond the status quo, as their legitimate interests demand, in parallel with strategic partnership, to ensure a tangible improvement in trade, mutual access to economic factors beyond the region and connectivity with other countries. Beijing is pursuing its visionary project namely “one belt-one road” (OBOR). President Xi Jinping’s dynamic vision of prosperity through connectivity is re-defining the...
The Drone War – September 2016
Controversial strikes hit both Afghanistan and Somalia in September, with allegations of civilian casualties and friendly fire incidents. Several Afghan officials said that two strikes killed eight policemen in Afghanistan on September 18. Another strike on September 28 killed 15 civilians, according to the UN. Also on September 28, the US military announced it had killed nine al Shabaab in a "self-defence strike". But Somali officials said that a US drone strike killed 22 soldiers and civilians in Somalia. Afghanistan Fifteen civilians were killed and 13 others were injured in a US drone strike in Achin district, Nangarhar province, according to the UN mission in Afghanistan. The US at first denied the civilian casualties but has since changed its position. The Bureau is collecting data on individual strikes in Afghanistan, summarised above. However not all strikes are reported in open source material. The US Air Force publishes an aggregate summary of strikes in Afghanistan without any casualty information, which we have reproduced below. The figures for September will be released in October. The Bureau's timeline of events in the drone war in Afghanistan so far in 2016. A database of all US strikes recorded by the Bureau in Afghanistan since 2015. Yemen Four US strikes were recorded by the Bureau in Yemen, killing at least 15 alleged Al Qaeda members. The Bureau's timeline of events in the drone war in Yemen in 2016. A database of all US drone strikes, air strikes and missile strikes recorded by the Bureau in Yemen since 2001. Somalia US drones hit Somalia four times in September, killing at least 17, as the US air war against al Shabaab continued apace. The first drone strike hit the country in January 2007. There were six more in the following seven years. There was a marked change in January 2015 - there have been 25 strikes since the start of last year. A strike on September 28 has proven controversial - Somali officials claim it killed 22 local...
Uri Aftermath: Global Media Doubts Surgical Strike Claims
India’s claims of cross-border ‘surgical strikes’ are being taken with a pinch of salt even by the international media. Leading US newspaper, The Washington Post, in an article on Sunday published interviews of locals living along the Line of Control. The majority of villagers in the three areas along the LoC said that they did not witness any cross-border movement of troops or hear the sound of any helicopters. The residents of Bhimber, Chamb and Sahmani said that a heavy exchange of fire did take place, although no one said that “they had seen or heard anything that supported India’s claim that it carried out cross-border strikes on several staging areas for militant groups that left “double digits” of militants dead,” according to the article. Another well-reputed publication, ‘The Diplomat’, in a piece titled ‘Is India Capable of a Surgical Strike in Pakistan Controlled Kashmir?’ raised some serious questions about the capabilities of the Indian military. The article asks whether the Indian forces have the requisite capability for those much-hyped ‘surgical strikes’. The piece takes a critical look into India’s defence system, stating that the majority of the acquired warfare mechanisms and machinery are along the ‘Cold War’ lines. It also blatantly states that most of the Indian machinery is in a ‘training and testing’ or rather an ‘infancy’ phase. According to a BBC Urdu article, when the locals residing merely two kilometres away from Indian check-posts were inquired about the strikes they said: “What surgical strikes? That day there was just more than usual firing.” It seems that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, under exceeding pressure following the Uri attacks, made a face-saving move, which lacks the substance to make it convincing and credible. Moreover, the Indian army’s muddled up and porous information also raised more doubts regarding the authenticity of such ‘strikes’. Interestingly, Pakistan Army after firmly denying the claims of strikes...
CPEC: A Baloch Perspective
During one hundred years of colonial rule in greater India and Balochistan, the British Raj constructed thousands of kilometres of railway lines, roads, bridges, airports, telegraph lines and strategic garrisons. The logic behind all this massive infrastructure investment was very clear: to maintain colonial rule, maximise exploitation and counter the Russian advance towards the warm waters of Balochistan. From 1878 to 1922 the British rail network crisscrossed Balochistan’s landscape, creating wonders such as the Khojak Pass, one of the longest tunnels in South Asia. In addition, British engineers built marvellous bridges. But all this didn’t bring any economic miracles to the province. Simply because all this infrastructure was purpose-built and without an inclusive and participatory process to involve local communities. The British Raj’s speedy rails and motors helped transport oppression and mobilise killing machines to suppress anti-colonial freedom fighters. In 1947 Pakistan came into being and the Baloch were promised a good future. Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah promised special status to maintain Balochistan’s autonomy and special development plans in return for Balochistan joining Pakistan. However, immediately after annexation with Pakistan a deliberate policy of under-development of the province started, keeping a resource-rich region dependent on financial handouts. A new breed of rulers from Karachi, Lahore and then Islamabad arrived to replace the white colonisers. Within five years of independence Balochistan’s top-grade gas was pumped and transmitted to the far end of northern Punjab, leaving the Baloch with just dust and smoke. Jobs and scholarships went to a special class of people and gas-related industries, like fertiliser industries, were established in Punjab. Since 1948, countless promises have been made but the Baloch have only received death and despair. The result at the end of these 70 years has been over 81 percent poverty, 70...
Taliban Fighters Raise Flag in Strategic Afghan City of Kunduz
The Taliban launched a large-scale assault Monday on Kunduz, a northern Afghan city that briefly fell to the insurgents a year ago and was only fully liberated weeks later with the help of U.S. airstrikes. The insurgents reached a central roundabout and hoisted their flag, residents said on condition of anonymity, fearing retribution. But Amruddin Wali, a member of the provincial council, said security forces still control the airport, police headquarters, provincial government offices and the intelligence agency. "Intense fighting is going on right now at the governor's compound and the NDS (intelligence agency) office," he said. The Taliban said they had seized the roundabout and several checkpoints, but did not claim to have captured the city. The heavy fighting forced government offices, schools and shops to close, said Mohammad Yusouf Ayubi, head of the Kunduz provincial council. He said parts of the city were empty and highways to the south and east were closed. Defense Ministry spokesman Dawlat Waziri said Afghan forces had launched airstrikes on Taliban positions, and were carrying out offensive operations outside the city. "I totally reject claims that the Taliban have taken over Kunduz city," he said, adding that the insurgents had captured an area to the west. The Interior Ministry said a policeman was killed and four were wounded in the ongoing fighting. The attack came as President Ashraf Ghani left for an international aid conference in Brussels, where he expects donors to pledge $3 billion a year through 2020 to aid the country's reconstruction as it continues to wage a 15-year war against the Taliban. The fall of Kunduz last year marked the Taliban's first capture of an urban center since the group was driven from power by a U.S.-led invasion in 2001. Afghan forces backed by U.S. air power spent around three weeks driving the militants out of the city. Kunduz came under threat again in April, but U.S.-backed Afghan forces fended off the...
EU Signs Deal to Deport Unlimited Numbers of Afghan Asylum Seekers
The EU has signed an agreement with the Afghan government allowing its member states to deport an unlimited number of the country’s asylum seekers, and obliging the Afghan government to receive them. The deal has been in the pipeline for months, leading up to a large EU-hosted donor conference in Brussels this week. According to a previously leaked memo, the EU suggested stripping Afghanistan of aid if its government did not cooperate. The deal, signed on Sunday, has not been made public but a copy seen by the Guardian states that Afghanistan commits to readmitting any Afghan citizen who has not been granted asylum in Europe, and who refuses to return to Afghanistan voluntarily. It is the latest EU measure to alleviate the weight of the many asylum seekers who have arrived since early 2015. Afghans constituted the second-largest group of asylum seekers in Europe, with 196,170 applying last year. While the text stipulates a maximum of 50 non-voluntary deportees per chartered flight in the first six months after the agreement, there is no limit to the number of daily deportation flights European governments can charter to Kabul. With tens of thousands set to be deported, both sides will also consider building a terminal dedicated to deportation flights at Kabul international airport. The agreement, Joint Way Forward, also opens up the deportation of women and children, which at the moment almost exclusively happens from Norway: “Special measures will ensure that such vulnerable groups receive adequate protection, assistance and care throughout the whole process.” If family members in Afghanistan cannot be located, unaccompanied children can be returned only with “adequate reception and care-taking arrangement having been put in place in Afghanistan”, the text says. The EU has negotiated the agreement with the Afghan government as part of the run-up to this week’s Brussels donor conference, where international donors will pledge aid for Afghanistan for the...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.