Current Projects
Circular Debt Reduction is Possible in a Single Click to Save Pakistan from Financial Catastrophe and Destabilization
By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi Pakistan’s power sector is a leaking bucket: the holes deliberately crafted, and the leaks carefully collected as economic rents by various stakeholders who control the system. It is a self-evident truth that our power sector is bedevilled by corruption, greed, inefficiency, and injustice. While this is so, the bills have continued to increase. The main hole in the power sector bucket is circular debt, aside from expensive electricity. In Pakistan's power sector, circular debt is a public debt that builds up on distribution companies as a result of unpaid government subsidies. When this occurs, the country's debt is exacerbated because the distribution companies are unable to pay IPPs and CPEP Power Plants, who in turn are unable to pay fuel suppliers. Pakistan's total circular debt as of March 2024 was Rs. 3,000 billion. Pakistan is in the midst of political and economic turmoil, with record inflation primarily due to the high cost of electricity to the extent that it is now challenging national sovereignty and has posted the lowest GDP since the country's creation. The majority of Pakistanis pay bills that are far higher than their monthly income, which is the worst of all. The cost hike is all because of circular debt in the power sector. Moving from cheap hydroelectricity to imported oil, coal, and LNG-fired power plants is the fundamental cause of the circular debt and the enormous price increase for electricity. While expensive electricity generation has put a severe strain on the nation's finances, it is now challenging national sovereignty. The extraordinary unrest, protests, and dissent caused by electricity in Azad Kashmir during the second week of May shocked Islamabad and served as a sobering reminder that the electricity sector poses the greatest threat to national security. Hydropower was once a major source of energy in Pakistan, accounting for nearly 60% or more of all electricity generation until 1991. However, this...
Building Bridges, Improving Perceptions
Pak-Afghan Youth Peace Initiative We're thrilled to share the success of our recent Pak-Afghan Youth Peace Initiative's kickoff event hosted by CRSS at the University of Peshawar, Bara Gali campus. Over three interactive and immersive days, we engaged in meaningful dialogue, workshops, and cultural exchanges aimed at fostering understanding and peace between Pakistani and Afghan youth. Facilitated by CRSS in collaboration with the Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar, and the Afghanistan Women Association (AWA), this initiative brought together sixteen bright minds, eight from Pakistan and eight from Afghanistan, to discuss critical issues and explore avenues for cooperation. Highlights included: 🔹 Insightful discussions on regional challenges and opportunities. 🔹 Workshops on youth leadership, peacebuilding processes, and climate resilience led by field experts. 🔹 Engaging sessions on narrative building and climate sustainability. 🔹 Cultural night featuring enchanting performances, bonfire, and camaraderie. As we reflect on the program's impact, we're energized by the commitment of our youth participants to drive positive change in their communities through their social action plans. Their passion and dedication inspire us to continue our efforts in promoting peace and stability in the region. The project is led by Elsa Imdad Hussain, Global UGRAD-Pakistan alumna and CRSS research fellow. Elsa secured this grant through the Global UGRAD Pakistan Big Ideas Challenge grants. The Global Undergraduate Exchange Program in Pakistan is sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, with funding provided by the U.S. Government and administered by IREX. Stay tuned for updates on upcoming phases of the initiative, including meetings with high government officials, social action plans, and mainstream media engagements.
Youth, Politics, and Democracy in Pakistan- An Intersectional Perspective
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) extends its heartfelt gratitude to the dedicated efforts of its core research team, particularly acknowledging the lead author Elsa Imdad, as well as the valuable contributions of Zehra Zaidi and Shahana Naseer. We are also indebted to the young participants of our focused group discussions and in-depth interviews, whose insights enriched the essence of this research. Furthermore, we express our sincere appreciation to the subject matter experts for their invaluable commentary on the target issues. Their expert input has greatly enhanced the value of our work, enabling us to formulate policy recommendations for policymakers and legislators with greater precision and relevance.
An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Pakistan
Dear Prime Minister, I would like to draw your attention to the remarks made by Federal Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar on April 22 in the National Assembly. In that speech, he stated that Pakistan cannot take any legal action against India's "water aggression" in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and that India maintains the right to water from the River Ravi under a legally binding treaty. The law minister’s ignorance and the Indian move to completely stop the flow of the Ravi River into Pakistan may mean death to Lahore’s groundwater in its vicinity. This will happen because the recently constructed Shahpur Kandi dam allows India to keep 1150 cubic seconds of water previously headed for Pakistan. Apparently, the Minister didn’t consult these reports before offering a blanket statement. Dear Prime Minister, I shall request the Law Minister to review the historical flow data of the river below the Indo-Pak border for information, as it indicates that the average annual flow in Ravi has varied between 1.1 and 2.2 MAF between 2000 and 2023. Even so, this flow is insufficient. Due to Lahore's extraordinary population growth, the water level is already decreasing by 2 to 3 feet annually. What would happen if Lahore, the 26th-largest city in the world with a population of over 15 million, runs out of water if the river's water supply is cut off? I think the law minister cannot imagine this scenario. It was expected that a rapid decrease in the groundwater level of Lahore which is directly proportional to the flow in the Ravi River Pakistan’s ministries would have demanded India ensure the minimum environmental flow as per the formula that India agreed to in the court of arbitration in Kishanganga Arbitration for Naleem River. But it didn’t happen because of the criminal silence of both ministries. The minister ignored – wilfully or otherwise - legitimate mathematical and scientific facts that the Ravi River is estimated to contribute more than 80% of the...
“Pathways to Partnership -The Strategic Significance of U.S Granting a Gas Waiver to Pakistan”
Hon. Joseph R. Biden President of the United States The White House Washington, DC 20006 Herewith I, Arshad H. Abbasi, an energy and water consultant, researcher, and advisor to the private think tank – Center for Research and Security Studies (www.crss.pk), Pakistan – am approaching you for a critical challenge my country faces today. Before getting into specifics about the topic, I would like to remind you of a statement you made when you visited my country in January 2011; "Pakistan and the United States have established a long-lasting partnership." However, the years after you assumed office in 2020, don't show any tangible outcomes of that "long-lasting" partnership, particularly when Pakistan finds itself embroiled in multiple crises and is facing several daunting challenges. For this reason, CRSS would like to bring up one of those significant issues with you and request whether your country might assist Pakistan in any way, at least on this count i.e. a waiver for importing gas from Iran via a pipeline. Let's now examine why Pakistan requires this urgent support from the US. Firstly, Pakistan is heavily reliant on natural gas for its energy needs. Its gas reserves are not sufficient to meet the demand. At the same time, these reserves are depleting at the rate of 5% annually. Furthermore, Pakistan also imports expensive LNG to meet the shortfall, one of the main reasons for the high inflation in the country. Hence, Pakistan is in dire need of clean, renewable energy resources. The Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline (IPGP), which has been operating for nearly two decades, could be one of the sources. The Inter-Governmental Framework Declaration was signed on May 24, 2009, by the presidents of Pakistan and Iran, well in advance of the sanctions imposed on Iran. Unfortunately, because of the US sanctions against Iran, the IPGP project remains in limbo. Consequently, the majority of Pakistanis were shocked when Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and...
Xinjiang: Why Shrouded in Secrecy?
Xinjiang, a Muslim-majority region in China, borders eight countries and is a vital “corridor” for the Belt and Road Initiative. With 56 ethnic groups, it has seen significant development in the last 15 years, with a 1.9 trillion yuan GDP in 2023. The region has 5,400 intangible cultural heritage items and promotes inclusive, people-centric development, with local officials and experts focusing on Chinese and Xinjiang characteristics. I recently had a chance to visit parts of the northwestern Uyghur Autonomous Region of China – Xinjiang. The Muslim-majority region is spread over 1.6649 million sq. km -that is almost one-sixth of China’s total landmass. It borders eight countries: Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. The famous ancient Silk Road is estimated to be about 7,000 km, the bulk of it, which is 5,000 km passes through Xinjiang. The region assumed greater importance with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative over a decade ago and serves as a crucial “corridor” and “transit station” for BRI-related activities. Around 56 ethnic groups reside in Xinjiang. In the words of a Chinese diplomat, the ethnic, religious and cultural diversity as well as its economic opportunities have meanwhile turned Xinjiang into a melting pot of diverse cultures and economic development that involves agricultural cultivation techniques, livestock breeding methods, production of silk, porcelain, papermaking, metallurgy, hydraulic engineering, and gunpowder manufacturing techniques, all spread through this vital “corridor” of Xinjiang between the East and the West. The region has seen staggering development in the last 15 years – evident from the 1.9 trillion yuan GDP recorded in 2023. With a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, most economic indicators in Xinjiang rank among the top in the country. The majority of Muslim inhabitants – the Uyghurs – practice their faith as they will. Unlike the disinformation spread in the...
Global Civilization Initiative Helps Reset the Global Order
China’s global initiatives, including the GCI, calling for an egalitarian and inclusive order in pursuit of just and coherent global governance, are a corrective bid to reinstate the sagging Westphalian order for the benefit of the international community. The rollout of the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) a year ago introduced a new public good to humanity. This Chinese initiative has driven home a clear message that all nations have the right to choose their own development paths in their pursuit of modernization, which is not necessarily synonymous with Westernization, as demonstrated by China’s example. The inspirational success of China in eradicating extreme poverty 10 years ahead of the target deadline set by the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda has debunked the myth that Westernization is the only route to modernization. Given contemporary geopolitics, which is evolving into a multipolar world, the main takeaway of the GCI focuses on the dire need for self-confidence building, notably in the Global South. This self-confidence is essential before the emerging economies can unshackle themselves from the cultural subjugation imposed by their former Western colonial masters. This is no Cold War parlance but a reality particularly relevant in the Global South, where young nations that declared independence after World War II are struggling to regain their cultural confidence and, thus, their economic sovereignty. While their economic resources remain largely in the grip of multinationals acting as proxies for their former colonial rulers, the lingering lack of cultural confidence after prolonged colonial rule allows the insidious force of cultural subordination to harden the myth that modernization must equate to Westernization. This situation provides a convenient pretext for these colonial proxies to plunder the wealth of these nations, which is a widespread practice across the developing world, especially in Africa. In retrospect, this...
China calls for restraint after Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel
UNITED NATIONS, April 14 (Xinhua) — A Chinese envoy on Sunday called for calm and restraint after Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel over the latter’s deadly assault on the Iranian consulate in Syria. “China calls on relevant parties to exercise maximum calm and restraint and resolve their differences and disputes in accordance with the purposes of the UN Charter and international law to prevent further escalation,” said Dai Bing, the charge d’affaires of China’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations. On April 1, Iran’s diplomatic premises in Syria were attacked by airstrikes, resulting in the deaths of several Iranian personnel and severe damage to the premises. This is a grave violation of the UN Charter and international law and a breach of the sovereignty of both Syria and Iran. The attack is extremely vicious, he noted. China expressed deep concern over Saturday’s escalation. It has also noted that Iran stated that its military action was in response to Israel’s aggression against its diplomatic premises and the matter can be deemed concluded, said Dai. The ongoing situation is the latest spillover of the Gaza conflict. It serves as another reminder that the Palestinian question remains central to the Middle East issue and bears on the peace, stability and long-term security in the region, he said. If the flames of the Gaza conflict are allowed to continue raging, the adverse spillover is set to spread still further, making the region even more unstable. Countries and peoples in the Middle East do not want to see, nor can they afford a larger conflict or war. Therefore, the priority is implementing Security Council Resolution 2728 and securing an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, he said. The ultimate solution is to implement the two-state solution and put an end to the vicious circle of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. China calls on the international community, especially countries with influence, to play a constructive role in promoting peace and stability...
People’s Security should be the Ultimate Goal
As the transformations unseen in a century are unfolding at an accelerating pace, international relations are undergoing profound adjustments, and the world has entered a period of turbulence and transformation, people of all countries have greater expectations for peace and security. Meanwhile, the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has entered a critical stage, and China’s development has placed higher demands on national security. President Xi Jinping thought deeply about the development trend of the times, relentlessly explored the path of national security with Chinese characteristics, and creatively put forward a holistic approach to national security, which takes the people’s security as ultimate goal, political security as fundamental task, economic security as foundation, military, cultural and societal security as means of guarantee, and promotion of international security as support, and ensure both internal and external security, homeland and public security, traditional and non-traditional security, and China’s own and common security. It has pointed out the way forward for maintaining and shaping national security with Chinese characteristics and offered China’s solution to building a world with lasting peace and universal security. As Pakistan’s all-weather strategic cooperative partner, we stand ready to strengthen exchanges and mutual learning with Pakistan and continuously enrich the connotation of a China-Pakistan community with a shared future. We should take the people’s security as the ultimate goal, and effectively protect Chinese citizens in Pakistan. The people are the foundation of a country and are also what the rule of a country is for. The national security work is ultimately to protect the interests of the people and enable them to live and work in peace and happiness. President Xi Jinping emphasized that we must always put the people first, put the life first,...
Balochistan and KP Dominate Violence Landscape in Pakistan’s Q1 2024: CRSS Security Report
During the first quarter of 2024, Pakistan witnessed 432 violence-linked fatalities and 370 injuries among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws, resulting from as many as 245 incidents of terror attacks and counter-terror operations. This includes 281 fatalities among civilians and security forces personnel. The northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the southwestern Balochistan provinces - both bordering Afghanistan, accounted for over 92% of all fatalities and 86% of attacks (including incidents of terrorism and security forces operations) during this period. Individually, the former suffered 51% and the latter 41% of all fatalities in Q1, 2024. The data indicates that the remaining regions were relatively peaceful, suffering less than 8% of all fatalities. These were the key findings of the Q1 2024 Security Report issued by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). In addition to the casualties of terrorism and counter-terrorism, there were 64 incidents of sabotage in the country targeting properties of the government, politicians, private properties, and security properties. In Q1 2024, Balochistan recorded a staggering 96% surge in violence, with the number of fatalities jumping to 178 from 91 in Q4 2023. The Sindh province also saw a nearly 47% rise in violence though the number of fatalities was very low. However, the regions of KP, Punjab, and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) recorded encouraging decreases in violence by 24%, 85%, and 65% respectively. Despite a notable decrease in violence observed in GB in the period under review, the GB Home Minister issued a terror threat alert on March 31, 2024, regarding the possibility of attacks by the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The alert came in response to a recent suicide attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers in the Shangla district of KP who were working on Dasu Dam project, killing 5 Chinese nationals and a local driver. It's worth noting that last year, GB had suffered the highest...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.