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COAS Can Save Pakistan From Economic Collapse By Addressing Energy Security
In October 2021, we wrote a letter to the then Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Qamar Javed Bajwa, to warn about the imminent threats posed by Circular Debt and Capacity Payments to Pakistan's national security. Our letter not only highlighted these critical issues but also offered practical solutions that could have averted the current crisis. Regrettably, our warnings and recommendations went unheeded, leading to the challenges the country now faces. We hope that in the future, such expertise and advice will be taken seriously to prevent similar crises. Here, we share the original letter to emphasize the urgency and importance of addressing these issues. It serves as a testament to the foresight provided and a reminder of the need for proactive measures in safeguarding our nation's security and economic stability. To General Qamar Javed Bajwa NI(M) HI(M) Oct. 03, 2021 Chief of the Army Staff of Pakistan Army GHQ Rawalpindi Subject- COAS Can Save Pakistan From Economic Collapse By Addressing Energy Security I would like to invite your kind attention towards the state of electricity in Pakistan and Karachi at large since I consider your involvement imperative; for the reasons that the events and orders and situations when the Ministry of Energy and enormous allied entities, including the National Power Regulator, (NEPRA) has to remain questionable in respect of transparent and bold conduct. The system and trust in the political economy of energy and its governance do not disallow us to say that I have lost faith and trust in the system. Just so you know – the letter is addressed to you, without malice or prejudice to any individual or office. I have tried to highlight the serious issue of Energy security, which has universally become a subset of National Security. This way it is sure that I can reach you most effectively on a subject of national importance. Our archrival...
Terrorism Continues to Batter Pakistan
Outline During the second quarter of 2024, Pakistan witnessed 380 violence-linked fatalities and 220 injuries among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws, resulting from as many as 240 incidents of terror attacks and counter-terror operations. This includes 236 fatalities among civilians and security forces personnel. The northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the southwestern Balochistan provinces - both bordering Afghanistan, were the epicenters of violence, accounting for nearly 92% of all fatalities and 87% of attacks (including incidents of terrorism and security forces operations) during this period. Individually, the former suffered 67% and the latter 25% of all fatalities in Q2, 2024. The data indicates that the remaining regions were relatively peaceful, suffering only 8% of all fatalities. Violence and Casualty Rates Across the Country Plummeted in Q2, 2024 Reduction in Overall Violence:The country experienced a 12% reduction in overall violence, with 380 fatalities recorded compared to 432 in Q1 2024. Sharp Decline in Casualties:A similarly encouraging trend can be observed in terms of casualties recorded throughout the country which dropped significantly, from 802 in Q1 to 600 in Q2 2024, marking a substantial 25% decline. Regional Success Stories Balochistan Leads with Remarkable Improvement: Balochistan:The most notable improvement was seen in Balochistan, where violence decreased by 46%, with fatalities falling from 178 in Q1 to 96 in Q2 2024. Sindh:Violence in Sindh also saw a notable decline of 32%. GB and ICT:Similar downward trends were reported. However, Punjab and KP experienced a surge in violence, with an increase of 13 and 31 fatalities, respectively, compared to the previous quarter. Who Suffers Most: A Breakdown of Fatalities Outlaws Hit Hardest: Outlaws accounted for the majority of fatalities (38%), followed by civilians (32%) and security and government officials (30%). Compared to Q1, civilian and security forces' fatalities...
Insights on Iran-Pakistan Relations Post-Raisi: Iranian Ambassador Dr. Reza Amiri-Moghaddam
Introduction: Individuals do not matter in Iran. The state is based on principles, constitution, and institutions that ensure continuity of policy under the guidance of the Supreme Leader, Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, says Dr. Amiri Reza Moghadem, Iran’s Ambassador to Pakistan, in an interview with Imtiaz Gul, CEO of CRSS and ASC. Below is the video and the transcript of the interview. Transcript: Q1: Hello friends, the world is facing significant turmoil, particularly in the Middle East and South Asia. Iran, having recently lost its President, finds itself in a complex situation. The late President had visited Pakistan, a crucial regional partner. The question now is how Iran will position itself amidst regional powers like China, Russia, and Pakistan. Joining me today is Iran's ambassador to Pakistan, Dr. Reza Amiri-Moghaddam, who will share insights on the potential implications of President Ebrahim Raisi’s passing on Iran's relationships in this challenging neighborhood. Ambassador: I extend my sympathies and condolences on the martyrdom of Shaheed Raisi, the honorable President of Iran, and his companions. We lost a President who dedicated his life to serving Iran, extending relations with Islamic countries, and upholding Islamic values. He defended Palestine and stood against the Israeli Prime Minister's genocide, supported by the West. Regarding policy changes, the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on institutions and a constitution. Our institutions, including the judiciary, parliament, and executive, work under the Supreme Leader's guidance. The High Council of National Security sets overall policy principles, which cannot be compromised. While President Raisi may have had different approaches, the basic principles remained the same. The transfer of power from one president to another does not depict changes in existing policy. Q2: Are you suggesting as Iran heads to presidential elections, there is no fear of any pro-US or pro-West leader getting into...
Taliban Participation in Doha Conference Crucial, We Don’t Want Afghanistan to Be Forgotten Amid Global Crises: UNAMA
The Islamic Emirate is doing a fairly notable job to achieve an inclusive system of governance in Afghanistan. However, a socially cohesive Afghanistan requires it to increase so that every Afghan citizen feels that they equally belong to the country and the government equally belongs to them. UNAMA is also engaging with all Afghans to help them achieve a broad-based governance system that includes everybody. These remarks were made by the head of the Pakistan-based liaison office for the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), Malick Ceesay, during the 4th round of Pak-Afghan Religious Scholars Dialogue, organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). In his interaction with the participating religious scholars from the two countries, Ceesay noted that the Taliban have allowed Afghan females to work in some public offices related to passport, immigration, healthcare, and agriculture, but these concessions have been overshadowed due to bans on the remaining women's access to employment and girls’ education beyond grade six. He emphasized the importance of the easement of restrictions on women’s access to education and employment and an inclusive system of governance in the country to pay the way for its recognition. “Islam never says that women should not go to school, and Islam never says that women should not go to work. Which (version of) Islam and which Quran says that? It's not found in there,” he added. Ceesay encouraged the Taliban to attend a conference on Afghanistan later this month, stating that it would help return much-needed global attention to the crisis-ridden country, as Ukraine war and Gaza hostilities had dramatically shifted the international attention from Afghanistan and that’s a concern for the United Nations. “We don’t want Afghanistan to be forgotten”, he said. “We are hopeful that this time around, the Islamic Emirate will send its representatives (to Doha) to be able to engage with the international community in...
Climate Change and Dirty Electricity Generation In Pakistan: Existential Crisis
By Engineer Arshad H Abbasi Pakistan, despite possessing the sixth-largest nuclear arsenal, has been rendered economically vulnerable due to its failing power sector. The Prime Minister of Pakistan, during the World Economic Forum in April 2024, highlighted the economic devastation caused by the energy sector and climate change. There is a significant lack of understanding within the government regarding the linkage between electricity generation and climate change. This has led to a drastic reduction in hydroelectricity production and increased reliance on thermal and coal-fired power plants, resulting in higher electricity costs and rapid depletion of natural gas reserves Pakistan’s power sector woes have now created an existential crisis for the country contributing to premature deindustrialization and severe energy poverty for the people. The staggering circular debt, on the other hand, is another headache that the government faces – literally a noose around its neck. A 2022 report [1] asserts that “IPPs have committed fraud to the tune of Rs 4.0 trillion over the last twenty years (Rs 200 billion each year) mainly through invoicing errors, misinterpretation of power purchase agreements, and blatant over-invoicing of plant costs.” Critics call it a heist that is now bleeding Pakistan’s economy. This CRSS report – authored by Engineer Arshad Abbasi - highlights yet another extremely damaging dimension of IPPs heist; namely, the intimate and unaccounted costs of IPPs emissions on climate change as well as lost opportunity to lower generation costs, both for the industrial and residential consumers. The report underlines that Pakistani government negligently never promoted retrofitting of thermal plants to use UNFCCC facilities to increase efficiency and reduce fuel consumption per unit of older and inefficient power plants. This report presents example of lackluster GoP commitment to support retrofitting application by two IPPs to UNFCCC in March 2013. It...
Pak-Afghan Relationship: Deconstructing Divisive Narratives through Youth Dialogue, Understanding, and Social Emersion
Organized by: The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) and University of Peshawar, Pakistan Introduction As part of the Beyond Boundaries project, CRSS organized a session with Afghan students studying at various universities across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), in collaboration with the Shaikh Zayed Islamic Center at the University of Peshawar (UoP). The goal was to engage in an open dialogue with Afghan youth to understand their perceptions of Pakistan and encourage them as ambassadors of peace, equipped with critical thinking skills to counter false narratives prevalent on social media. Objective Recognizing the pivotal role of youth in shaping the future of Pakistan and Afghanistan, the discussion aimed to address their unique challenges. These include limited economic opportunities, exposure to divisive media narratives, and a lack of constructive dialogue platforms. By addressing these issues, the session sought to empower Afghan youth to contribute positively to bilateral relations. Event Discussion Dr. Aamer Raza, a Fulbright scholar and senior academician at UoP, emphasized the importance of people-to-people exchanges in dispelling myths and building trust between the two nations. He highlighted the historical complexities affecting bilateral relations and stressed the need for local perspectives in policymaking. Dr. Raza noted that direct interaction between the citizens of Pakistan and Afghanistan could play a crucial role in mitigating misunderstandings and fostering a sense of shared history and future. The session, attended by 22 Afghan students (11 male and 11 female), provided a platform for them to voice their opinions and experiences. They expressed gratitude to CRSS for facilitating candid discussions and acknowledged the support of the Pakistani government in their education. However, they also raised several issues affecting bilateral relations, such as the stigmatization of Afghan students and bureaucratic hurdles in visa and...
Xi to attend China-Arab meeting
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Who is more lethal: Terrorist organizations or Pakistani politicians & bureaucrats?
Arshad H Abbasi May 22, 2024 Pakistan’s government has failed to address the country’s significant contribution to global emissions, with the power industry accounting for over 40% of carbon emissions. Corruption and rising net metering have led to a decline in energy users, who are rebelling against the corrupt power elite. Despite this, net-metering and photovoltaic panels offer a solution, with the potential to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030. Adopting a net-zero model could save Pakistan $4 billion annually and $2 billion in circular debt. Urgent action is needed to transition to sustainable energy and meet global emissions reduction goals. I will begin my essay with a quote from UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s speech to the Security Council on 22 Feb 2022: “International peace and stability are more at risk from climate change than terrorism.” The production of electricity is accountable for more than 40% of all energy-related emissions, a fact supported by scientific research. The primary cause of carbon emissions into the atmosphere and the primary driver of climate change is the burning of coal, gas, oil, or liquefied natural gas (NGL) to generate electricity. The Pakistani government never thought to translate the UN’s global vision. Bravo to the 250 million Pakistanis who have installed rooftop solar systems in large numbers in response to the UN’s call to stabilize climate change worldwide. Over the roof-top solar system’s phenomenal growth, the government is giving up. Energy users are rebelling against the dishonest power elite that controls NEPRA, the Ministry of Power, and the Ministry of Petroleum. Unfortunately, widespread corruption has caused Pakistan, once a powerful nation, to crumble. The 250 million people of Pakistan were targeted by the unholy alliance of bureaucrats and the National Power Regulator NEPRA when they were sending inexpensive electricity to the national grid. They don’t realize that their actions undermined the...
EMPOWERED, UNITED YOUTH ARE KEY TO REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: AMBASSADOR ASIF DURRANI
Not arms, but critical thinking, unity, and passion for change can drive the youth of this region forward. They need to have an inquisitive mind to question socio-economic injustices. These remarks were made by Ambassador Durrani, Pakistan’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan, addressing a gathering of Afghan and Pakistani youth leaders, hosted by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) as part of Pak-Afghan Youth Peace Initiative – Building Bridges, Improving Perceptions. The envoy urged the youth from both sides to take an active role in regional development by focusing on their education, skills, and personal growth as they are the future leaders of the countries. Regarding the sociopolitical situation in Afghanistan, he said that the pursuit of common interests in a fair socio-political environment is intrinsically linked to unity. By fostering solidarity, empathy, and collaboration, Afghans, especially the youth, can create a more just, developed, and equitable nation where everyone has the opportunity to thrive and contribute to the greater good. The youth of Afghanistan has the opportunity to change Afghanistan’s decades-long label of ‘conflict zone’ and take an active part in nation-building. The participating Afghan youth voiced their concerns on the issues facing the education landscape in Afghanistan, particularly for females, the delays in visa issuance for Afghan students studying in Pakistan, as well as the challenges faced by those who have to return to Afghanistan due to their illegal status or expiration of the visa. Mehnaz Akbar Aziz, former MNA, also joined the discussion where she underscored the significant role youth dialogues play in fostering unity between Pakistan and Afghanistan and that engaging the youth from both nations is crucial for bridging diplomatic gaps and building mutual understanding. She highlighted opportunities for youth engagement, such as academic exchanges and collaborative projects, which can help bridge...
Intersection of Climate Change and Gender-Based Violence Focused Group Discussion
As the world grapples with the increasing impacts of climate change, it is crucial to recognize and address its disproportionate effects on women, particularly in vulnerable regions like Pakistan. The Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) in its recent focused group discussion, the Intersection of Climate Change and Gender Based Violence (GBV) highlighted the urgent need for action to address (GBV) in the context of climate change in Pakistan. The discussion, attended by experts and stakeholders from various sectors, shed light on the crisscross of the rising threats of climate change and the GBV, emphasizing the unique challenges faced by women and girls during climate-related disasters such as floods, droughts, and extreme weather events. Naseer Memon, a consultant on climate change, disaster management and resettlement, drew attention to the profound impact of climate change on women, particularly in the context of natural disasters. He highlighted the devastating floods of 2022, which ravaged twenty-four districts in Pakistan, prompting mass migration to urban centers like Karachi and Hyderabad. He emphasized the disproportionate vulnerability of women in these crises, where they faced calamitous conditions in displacement camps characterized by inadequate access to essential facilities such as toilets, menstrual hygiene products, and healthcare services. Memon underscored the additional challenges faced by pregnant women and those with physical disabilities, who encountered heightened risks and obstacles during disasters. By spotlighting these realities, Memon advocated for urgent action to address the unique needs of women in disaster response and mitigation efforts, emphasizing the importance of gender-sensitive approaches to ensure their safety and well-being. Jaya Jaggi, a consultant on climate change and human rights advocate, stressed how women, particularly in patriarchal societies like Pakistan, face increased vulnerability to sexual...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.