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CHINA WATCH [MAY 23 – 29] RECOVERING ABDUCTED CHINESE NATIONALS

China vowed to do all it can do to make sure the safe return of its two citizens kidnapped in Pakistan. Opposition members of the Parliamentary Committee on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) strongly protested the role of the committee. Pakistan has earmarked 180 billion rupees or $1.71 billion for the CPEC projects under the budget for financial year 2017-18. The third Chinese-built maritime patrol ship was inducted into Pakistan naval force for the security of the CPEC route. A high-level meeting of military leaders deliberated over, among other issues, the security of the CPEC. A report by the United Nations (UN) Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (ESCAP) has warned the CPEC might “create geo-political tension with india”.   Recovering Abducted Chinese Nationals: China vowed to do all it can do to make sure the safe return of two citizens kidnapped in Pakistan and promised new measures to protect Chinese nationals working on the CPEC projects in Pakistan.[i] Last week, gunmen pretending to be police officials kidnapped two Chinese language teachers in Quetta. China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lu Kang said that “China will continue to make maximal efforts alongside Pakistan to strive for the safe return of the kidnapped individuals as soon as possible.” He added that “[W]e will also take further actions to ensure the safety of Chinese individuals and organisations in Pakistan.” On the other hand, Pakistan under increasing pressure scrambled to form a three member-police investigation team to probe the kidnapping of Chinese nationals and their safe recovery.[ii] Although Pakistan has established a Special Security Division of 15,000 military personnel for the security of Chinese workers and nationals, the country’s unpredictable security milieu poses a serious challenge to the smooth functioning of the CPEC.   Role of the CPEC Committee Questioned: Opposition members of the Parliamentary Committee on the CPEC strongly protested...

Keeping Politics Out of Business

After 22 days, Pakistan reopened the Friendship Gate at Chaman border crossing on May 27 on “humanitarian grounds” coinciding with the Ramazan in Afghanistan. At least 12, including two FC personnel, five children and three women were killed when Afghan forces attacked Pakistan civilian and military officials during a census enumeration in two villages on the Chaman border on May 5. In June 2016, the border remained closed after a Pakistan Army major and three others fell victim to the fire from across the Durand Line. In August 2016, Pakistan shut down the Spin Boldak and Chaman, border for nearly two weeks following protests and torching of the Pakistani flag at a rally on the Afghan side. In February 2017, TTP/Jamaatul Ahrar attacks from their reported sanctuaries across the border enforced another closure for 32 days at Chaman and Torkham. And in May this year, a deadly ambush by Afghan forces of Pakistani enumerators near Spin Boldak, Chaman cost as many as 15 Pakistan lives. It led to another closure of border for nearly 20 days. This cumulative 65 day closure at Chaman – between August 2016 and May 2017 alone – entailed a huge cost for traders and thousands of daily wage workers between Karachi and Kandahar. The daily average losses just to the truckers, traders and government, according to officials come to at least $3 million. No surprise the bilateral trade with Afghanistan has been on the wane. Zubair Motiwala, president of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry, reckons the Pakistan-Afghanistan trade has dropped by nearly 40 percent decline in recent years since early 2016. In a formal complaint on the suspension of traffic in February and March to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) 6 April, Dr Suraya Dalil, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Afghanistan to the UN office at Geneva spoke of damages of up to $90 million to Afghan traders. Afghan traders had voiced similar concerns in February and March, urging both...

Unwarranted Crackdown

Over the weekend, reports broke out that some 79 cases had been filed in the last three months for negative propaganda against the state and its various institutions over social media. These can be filed now, since the Pakistan Electronic Crimes Bill 2016 was passed in August of last year. The bill was widely criticized by civil society and rights based organizations, especially since the language of the bill was so ambiguously worded. Promises were made than that this is in the interests of Pakistan and will be used to target anti-state actors and proscribed organizations. Less than a year later, things have come full circle. Twenty two people have been arrested under the bill, and at least two journalists have been asked to appear before the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) to explain their social media posts. Of the 22, at least eight are political workers that belong to both Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). PTI cried foul and threatened to sue the state, claiming their workers were innocent, while one of the journalists, Taha Siddiqui, filed a writ against the FIA in the Islamabad High Court. I understand the need for the state to protect itself and its institutions. But this is an egregious example of gagging those that demand better answers and transparency. It is an unsaid international convention, that people of any country should have the utmost respect for the military. These are brave men and women that are willing to, and in Pakistan, often do, lay down their lives to protect our way of life. However, disagreeing with the military should not amount to the state mounting a brazen and miscalculated campaign against those that dissent. Asma Jehangir, Siddiqui’s lawyer, stated in a press briefing that the government should please the military on its own merits. While it is a statement designed to jolt the state, it goes a lot deeper than that. Pakistan’s powerful military is unhappy with the government’s progress...

CHINA WATCH [May 16 – 22] CHINA EVOKES PANCHSHEEL ON KASHMIR

China has said that it would like to adhere to Panchsheel (five principles) of coexistence in order to address the Indian concerns regarding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Federal Minister for Ports and Shipping Senator Mir Hasil Khan Bizenjo has warned against a new kind of security threat to the CEPC. The government has shared information about various projects of the CPEC.   China Evokes Panchsheel on Kashmir: China has said that it would like to adhere to Panchsheel (five principles) of coexistence in order to address the Indian concerns about the CPEC. China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying told the media “we would like to follow the five principles of coexistence in developing friendly relations with other countries.”[i] Panchsheel Treaty was an agreement signed between India and China in 1954 to promote relations on the basis of mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. She went on to say “[A]s per the concern over Kashmir region as we said before, it is an issue between India and Pakistan. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will not change China’s position on the Kashmir issue. Belt and Road Initiative is open and inclusive one.” China has stepped up its efforts to persuade India to join the multi-billion dollars BRI launched by President Xi Jinping. Beijing has shown considerable flexibility in separating bilateral issues with India from BRI-related efforts. But the Indian government of Prime Narendra Modi has proven more resilient and aggressive against all Chinese inducements.   Security Threats to CPEC: Federal Minister for Ports and Shipping Senator Mir Hasil Khan Bizenjo drew attention to a new kind of security threat to the CEPC. While condemning the May 13 killings of 13 Sindhi labourers in Gwadar he said that those militants “who are getting free in Syria” may pose threat to the CPEC.[ii] He expressed his concern that such subversive forces might move to Pakistan and consequently raise problems with...

Economic Relations Must Not Be Affected By Political Relations between Afghanistan And Pakistan: Mian Iftikhar, ANP

The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) organized a high level policy discussion “Fostering Public Private Dialogue for Economic Reforms” between private sector and political parties’ representatives on May 20, 2017 at Pearl Continental, Peshawar. Mr. Zahir Ali Shah, former Minister Health KPK and a parliamentarian from Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) remarked that in the previous government of PPP, Pakistan not only attained self-sufficiency in wheat production but also exported it, due to timely announcement of wheat support price by the government. Investment in renewable energy resources is systematically discouraged as it has less scope for corruption, he added. He also proposed to have a charter of economy between KPK Chambers of Commerce and politicians in the province. Miss Shagufta Malik, former MPA of Awami National Party (ANP) emphasized on the importance of women in development. She told the quorum about the remarkable talent in women of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Lots of women want to work. They should be provided soft loans. CPEC ought to give space to women too, she added. Ex-senator Mr. Ghulam Ali gave the suggestion to carve out a long term strategy for commerce and industry to flourish. Short term planning is damaging our economy. Lastly, Mian Iftikhar Hussain Shah, ex-minister of ANP said that there seemed to be more politics in business community itself rather than amongst politicians. This needs to stop. Legal protection to corruption is another impediment in the way forward. He expressed hope in Afghanistan, as it was the viable potential market for Pakistan in the region. Economic relations must not be affected by political relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, he commented. Members of business community – including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chamber, Mardan Chamber, Kohat Chamber, Tribal Chamber, FPCCI and other private sector representatives - thanked CRSS efforts for providing them with a platform, where they can give feedback to the...

Pak-Afghan Relations: Detente?

Afghanistan's Khaama Press news agency on Saturday quoted President Ashraf Ghani as saying that "Pakistan is in isolation but an isolated Pakistan is not in favour of Afghanistan." The country must be encouraged to refrain from supporting terrorist groups, an obvious reference to the Afghan Taliban's sanctuaries in the border regions. Ghani made these remarks during a meeting with local tribal elders of southern Kandahar province Friday evening. If reported correctly by the news agency Ghani's quote on Pakistan offers some glimmer of hope as far as the bilateral relations are concerned, particularly to the context of the bloody exchanges of fire and loss of life in the Spin Boldak district near the Durand Line earlier this month. Ghani's remarks coincided with two important statements. One by US Forces in Afghanistan said at least 750 militants affiliated with the Afghan chapter of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) - ISIS Khurasan - were killed in the past two-and-a-half months in Afghanistan. Their territory and fighting strength have been reduced two-thirds. The second statement emanated from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Headquarters. Released May 19 after a stakeholders' meeting it said all members reaffirmed their commitments to sustainable security in Afghanistan and to their strong partnership with Afghanistan. For Pakistan, this situation represents both an opportunity as well as challenges. It is an opportunity because President Ghani's "less hostile and diagnostic" tone on the disadvantages of an "isolated Pakistan" to Afghanistan reflects the realisation that such attempts (by India) will only precipitate his country's fragility and insecurity. Also, if one were to go by the optimism of some pro-active and well-meaning Afghan officials, Pak-Afghan acrimony probably has already peaked (because of acts of terrorism in February and March) and now may be heading for de-escalation. They believe that the relationship is not entirely...

Who Are You Calling a colony?

Some 29 countries, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund participated in the Belt and Road Forum (B&RF) for International Cooperation, including senior leaders and officials from the US, Japan and South Korea. On the occasion, President Xi Jinping pledged a major funding boost to the new Silk Road, including an extra 100 billion yuan ($14.5 billion) for the existing Silk Road Fund, 380 billion yuan in loans from two policy banks and 60 billion yuan in aid to developing countries and international bodies in countries along the new trade routes. Initiatives such as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor and the New Silk Road essentially underscore the Chinese quest for stability and staggering of risks. It is also rooted in the belief that stability and development go hand in hand. The Beijing leadership also believes that without an economically developing and politically peaceful region, it can neither expand its markets nor can it share the dividends of its own development. In an apparent endorsement of China’s initiatives, Britain’s finance minister told the summit that his country was a “natural partner” in the new Silk Road. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif praised China’s “vision and ingenuity”. India, on the other hand, chose to boycott the Forum, with its External Affairs Ministry spokesperson saying his country “cannot accept a project that violates its sovereignty and territorial integrity.” This position came on the heels of New Delhi’s open expression of disapproval of CPEC on many occasions, ever since President Xi signed off investments and assistance worth over 57 billion dollars (as of May 2017). The ‘colonising’ reference is specifically aimed at Pakistan, as the media in New Delhi, since this week has been actively claiming that Islamabad would become Beijing’s colony by 2030. ‘Beijing plans to turn Pakistan into its economic colony’ read a headline in Indian daily Times of India. The story claimed to “confirm that Pakistan will become...

Pak-Afghan Youth Dialogue Session One

The Center for Research and Security Studies held its first Pak-Afghan Youth Dialogue under its newly undertaken initiative – the Afghan Studies Center, at its head office in Islamabad on Thursday, on May 18, 2017. It was attended by 20 participants, some of who traveled from Karachi, Bajaur Agency and Peshawar to participate in this dialogue. Mr. Imtiaz Gul, CRSS Executive Director, Mr. Mian Sanaullah, former Ambassador and advisor at CRSS, Mr. Aized Ali, Project Director of CRSS’ Pakistan-Afghanistan Track 1.5/II project Beyond Boundaries and Sitwat Waqar Bokhari and Saddam Hussein, editors at Afghan Studies Center, represented CRSS. The dialogue began with Mr. Imtiaz Gul welcoming the participants in his opening remarks and highlighting the importance of youth forums to serve as a bridge between the people of both countries and in mitigating the rising hostility in recent years. Mr. Aized Ali further informed the participants about CRSS’ Pakistan-Afghanistan Track 1.5/II Project Beyond Boundaries which comprised of a total of 12 meetings, 6 each in Pakistan and Afghanistan, between parliamentarians and civil society members from both countries. He stated that the idea of the Afghan Studies Center emerged from the engagement with the youth during Beyond Boundaries’ members’ visits to universities in both countries. Mr. Mian Sanaullah next welcomed the participants and expressed his optimism in the youth of both countries to take forward the message of peace. A short video of a cultural event featuring singers from both countries hosted by CRSS in Islamabad in Beyond Boundaries’ last meeting was shown to the participants. Sitwat Waqar Bokhari, who was moderating the session, introduced the theme “Understanding Pak-Afghan Trust Deficit: The Role of the Youth in the Way Forward” to the participants and opened the floor for discussion. The discussion began with participants from both sides sharing their insightful views on the theme and the role of the youth in...

CRSS holds Roundtable discussion on CPEC and Regional Security with visiting Chinese delegation of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR)

The Director of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) visited the Center for Research and Security Studies along with his CICIR colleagues; Mr. Yan Shuai, Mr. Chen Wenxin, and Mr. Wang Shida, on Tuesday 16 May, 2017, for a dialogue on ‘CPEC and Regional Security’ hosted by CRSS at its head office in Islamabad. CRSS was represented by Pakistani experts; Dr. Shoaib Suddle; former IG Police, Lt. Gen (retd) Talat Masood; former Defence Secretary, Mr. Salman Bashir; former Foreign Secretary, AVM (retd) Ateeb Siddiqui; former Head and Commandant of Air Force Air war College, and Lt. Gen (retd) Masood Aslam; former Ambassador. CICIR Director, Mr. Xianoqing, in his introductory remarks, noted that the relations of both countries have upgraded to a new level with the commencement of “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” (CPEC); where earlier they were restricted to only a political and military relationship, now Pak-China relations have broadened to include economic cooperation and infrastructure development. Chen Wenxin, Deputy Director CICIR expressed his concern that while the overall security situation in Pakistan has improved, Balochistan continues to face increased terrorist attacks. He also said that it is heartening to see that Pakistan has also become a member of Shanghai Cooperation Organistaion (SCO) recently and now Beijing has friends under the SCO framework. China looks forward to reaping maximum benefits by collaborating with Pakistan under this framework. Former Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir congratulated Chinese friends on a successful ‘China Summit,’ terming it as a prodigious initiative in contemporary times. Pakistan like China also wants India to be part of the “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative, but India has so far decided to stay away, he stated. He further mentioned three factors influencing Indian policy towards Pakistan, namely; a) Extremist ideological narrative of BJP which is itself lethal for Indian Union b) New...

CHINA WATCH [May 9 – 15] SUMMIT OF THE BELT AND ROAD FORUM (BRF) FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

The summit of the BRF for International Cooperation in Beijing was the top story of the last week. China and Pakistan signed new deals worth nearly $500 ahead of the summit. In its efforts to induce New Delhi to attend the BRF summit, China showed willingness to rename the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, India did not participate in the BRF summit and called the initiative as “unsustainable debt”. Two major terrorist attacks in Baluchistan refreshed the questions about the security of the CPEC. In an exclusive report, English daily Dawn has revealed the details of the much-awaited masterplan of the CPEC. A large number of protestors gathered in Skardu to protest against the exclusion of Gligit-Baltistan (GB) form the CPEC projects. The Director of the United States (U.S.) National Intelligence, Daniel Coats, observed that the CPEC “will probably offer militants and terrorists additional targets.”   CPEC in the Limelight: China and Pakistan inked new deals worth nearly $500 ahead of the Belt and Road summit in Beijing.[i] Pakistan’s delegation at the summit is led by Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif, Chief Ministers of all the four provinces and some cabinet ministers. The agreements signed included: a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on bilateral cooperation within the framework of the Silk Road initiative, agreement for up gradation of the main track ML-I, MoU about a dry port in Havelian, and three agreements related to economic and technical cooperation worth 3.4 billion yuan for the Gwadar port and East Bay Expressway.[ii] On the other hand, the Chinese President Xi Jinping in a meeting with Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif called for pushing forward the construction of the CPEC.[iii] The Pakistani PM warned that CPEC should not be politicised and said the corridor was open to all countries.[iv] He went on to say that “[W]e are not striving to merely leverage geography for economic prosperity; we are also trying to build a peaceful, connected and...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar