Imtiaz Gul, Executive Director, CRSS, read this paper at the conference Security Trends in the Asia Pacific Region: Prospects and Challenges for Pakistan held at the National Defense University, Islamabad on 28 April 2015.

The purpose of this presentation is no strategic forecasting but to underscore that geo-strategic rise and economic development do not happen in a vacuum. They require self-belief, a clearly defined policy direction and unflinching commitment to implementation

First let us see what factors shapes /defines the broad contours of China’s socio-economic and security agenda?

Chinese World View

a)     China’s assessment of the current world order:

It acknowledges that the world is increasingly competitive, still dominated by the combination of geo-politics – geo-economics which are the primary tools to protect and promote the commercial interests of the western industrial and military complex. They not only offer opportunities but also pose security challenges.

China – still a developing nation – accepts that, on the one hand, the world is increasingly becoming interdependent, and that it needs to be able to exert political influence wherever possible to protect its own security and economic interests.

Thomas Fingar commented in the National Bureau of Research that:

• China appears to want to maintain most elements of the current global order, including U.S. leadership. But it also wants the U.S. to allow other nations, specifically China, to have a greater voice in decisions affecting the international system.[1]

• Fingar further stated that China is more interested in improving and establishing rules and institutions needed to meet 21st-century challenges than in wholesale replacement of existing mechanisms. This makes China a willing as well as necessary partner in the remaking of institutions to meet shared international challenges.[2]

b)     Traditional Chinese or Confucian concepts of world order:

Five traditional principles constitute the core of the Chinese foreign and economic policies

i.         Mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

ii.         Mutual non-aggression.

iii.         Mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.

iv.         Equality and cooperation for mutual benefit

v.         Peaceful co-existence.

c)     The attitudes and actions of other countries:

How other nations look at China, particularly the USA +major NATO nations, India and Pakistan:

As a whole, most global powers view the economic rise of China positively and appear ready to pursue the collaborative framework for engagement with China because of the increasing economic inter-dependencies. And that is why most strategic economists conclude that the so-called string of pearls China is trying to weave together at various points along the Indian Ocean is primarily driven by economic concerns and not necessarily strategic ambitions.[3]

A practical side of China:

What China does to continue to grow at the remarkable 7 percent annually, what are the guiding principles for good governance, internal security and development.

1.      Clarity of Vision: The country will move forward only if it is stable internally.  It will count externally only if it is strong economically. Reflected in speeches by the Chinese President during his visit to Islamabad in 1996 and President Xi Jinping: Both underscored the need for friendly relations with neighbours, indirectly urging Pakistan to mend fences with India, put Kashmir on the backburner and decide as to whether private militia’s should be used as instruments of foreign policy.
2.      Meticulous Long Term Planning: The five-year planning regime: Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou examples: All pursuing five-year plans and the One-Belt-One Road concept on Economic Corridors Also: Asian Infrastructure Development Bank, Silk Road Fund (40 b$)
3.      Undiluted focus on policy implementation: Recent Visit by President Xi Jinping: Officials / Diplomats: Focus on implementation: (Put those 46 billion dollars on ground: Chinese official)
4.      Continuity Of Policies: Since the decision-making flows from the Chinese Communist Party, the continuity of projects and policies remains unaffected
5.       Anti-Corruption Drive:  Cardinal Principle for improving governance, restoring peoples’ confidence in governmental institutions and accelerating reform:  At least 60 minister-level officials, and more than 30 generals of the People Liberation Army  (PLA) sacked and tried in courts for corruption and abuse of authority. (NO Plea-bargain) during the past couple of years. Also, China wants international support to track down those who escaped after committing crime and corruption – living in Canada, the USA and many other countries. It also highlights another issue: most western countries keep breathing down hot and cold on issues of corruption in developing countries but themselves keep welcoming ill-gotten wealth people from these countries under various settlement schemes, without asking about the sources of income.
6.        Indiscriminate application of the Rule of Law:  The Communist Party of China made it very clear in its latest Congress to strictly apply law and to run governance according to law.  Particularly under the present President, who considers rule of law as absolutely essential tool for economic development and social peace and stability.

We can say that; the 6000 $ per capita,  the 7 percent phenomenal GDP growth, generation of at least 10 million new jobs ever year, roughly 1000 billion $ trade with traditional rivals/ competitors USA, Japan and India,  the quest for regional development through the over 100 b $ Asian Infrastructure Development Bank are not political hollow rhetoric but are the result of policy guidelines that anchored in the Chinese Confucian philosophy, consistency, as well as the dictates of realpolitik – a combination that has propelled China into a global economic strategic player. The Chinese commercial cooperation with India, USA and Japan offers a lesson for Pakistan too; while you can continue sticking to your principled positions on certain issues, you don’t have to turn them into roadblocks on the way to peace and development.

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[1] Thomas Fingar, “China’s Vision of World Order, The National Bureau of Asian Research, October 2012, http://www.nbr.org/publications/element.aspx?id=624

[2] Ibid

[3] David Brewster, “Beyond the ‘String of Pearls’: is there really a Sino-Indian security dilemma in the Indian Ocean? Journal of the Indian Ocean Region Volume 10, Issue 2, 2014, June 17, 2014 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19480881.2014.922350#