China, Pakistan and Afghanistan currently face multiple complex security threats. Most of them emanate from al-Qaeda-linked Afghan, Pakistani, Uzbek, Arab and Chinese Uighur Islamist militants – under-pinned by the trans-nationalist pan-Islamist ideology. Organized crime such as illicit drug trade and arms’ smuggling supplement these threats and represent huge concerns to all three countries.

A collective approach to tackle these issues, it seems, hinges on how the new Afghan unity government led by President Ashraf Ghani and his deputy Dr. Abdullah Abdullah positions itself to the daunting challenge.  The challenge is formidable indeed because of conflicting positions of major stakeholders.

Mullah Muhammad Omar (Chief of the Afghan Taliban), for instance, rejects the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA)[1] , between US and the Afghan government. He is of the view, “there should be an Afghan inclusive government based on Islamic Principles”. Omar’s spokesperson, too, insists that “there will be Jihad (holy war) in Afghanistan until the American leave”[2]

While Mullah Muhammad Omar makes reconciliation conditional to the US-led foreign troops’ withdrawal,, President Ashraf Ghani is urging dialogue; shortly after taking oath Ghani said: “We ask opponents of the government, especially the Taliban and Hezb-e-Islami, to enter political talks.[3] “We didn’t invite Mullah Omar. He’s on the terrorist watch list.”[4]

This underscores Ghani’s limitation too; he wants to negotiate with an opposition that has kept the country on tenterhooks for over a decade and continues to mount major attacks on government targets but his desire is constrained by the fact that Mullah Omar is on a US terrorist watch list, implying thereby that unless the government can reach out to Mullah Omar on its own, it too will be seen as subservient to Washington, with little hope for meaningful resumption of the reconciliation process.

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah the newly appointed chief executive of Afghanistan in a US brokered deal led by secretary of state senator John. Kerry after the disputed June, 2014 election is widely believed in Afghanistan to be anti-Taliban.  He also was a key commander during the civil war and the resistance against the Taliban.  In an interview to Germany’s International broadcaster DW he said, “The majority of Afghans want lasting peace but I have no doubt that most of them are against Taliban ideology. We are not prepared to compromise to please a small number of militants.”[5]

Meanwhile, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s advisor on national security and foreign affairs, Sartaj Aziz, says Pakistan has made initial contacts with President Ghani and the Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah. He said, “Reconciliation is an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led process, but if they want our help, whatever help we can give.  But it is an Afghan initiative how they want to approach this task and what exactly do they want us to do.  So, once they have developed their strategy and they need our help we will certainly respond positively”.[6]

The Chinese special envoy for Afghanistan Sun Yuxi represents the unusual interest of his country in the region. “We are hopeful that instead of weapons, Afghanistan will see economic development. China is interested to boost its role in Afghanistan,” Yuxi said during a meeting with former president Hamid Karzai in Kabul in August.

Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Sun Weidong says “Cooperation between China, Afghanistan and Pakistan will benefit the region. He emphasized building mutual trust and friendly consultations between the two countries should be encouraged to promote cooperation.Assuring cooperation in all avenues while highlighting three key threats – terrorism, extremism and narcotics, Chinese envoy stressed China is also ready to extend cooperation in this regard to Afghanistan and Pakistan.”[7]

A consensus is required to handle Taliban issue firstly between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah and then there shall be no external interference in the internal matters of Afghanistan, by whatever player. And the most significant challenge is from Pakistan that what specific group it supports. After suffering the consequences of its direct and indirect involvement in and with Afghanistan and some of its stakeholders, Islamabad and Rawalpindi seem to be gradually divorcing the path they treaded for decades”.

Our policy now is that the Afghan Taliban coming to power by force in Afghanistan is not in our security interests, that is the definition of our policy of non-interference in Afghanistan and no favorites.[8]

Neighboring states of Afghanistan should develop a mutual trust despite of perennial state of mutual suspicion vis-à-vis Pakistan’s policy of non-interference in Afghanistan. Better border management and more regulated flow of people are the tangible steps both Afghanistan and Pakistan can engage in. For this Pakistan is digging trenches on its territory at critical points. Moreover, Pakistan demands introduction of biometrics at regular border crossings. Pakistan shall have to take credible demonstrable actions to deny Afghan Taliban safe havens, and also work to rub off the perception that it uses some Taliban factions for leverage in the national reconciliation process.

The drug trafficking from Afghanistan remains a serious problem for regional as well as global community. Pakistan is witnessing a huge inflow of illicit drugs like Heroin, Cannabis and opium. Pakistan’s Anti-Narcotics Force (ANF) Joint Director Enforcement Lt. Col Nisar Mughal said, “The drugs inflow was huge in Pakistan, more so because it happens to be a transit route for drug traffickers of Afghanistan. “This is why we are planning to increase the number of check posts and police stations in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,”Narcotics Control Division Secretary Akbar Khan Hoti said, “Pakistan is not only being used as transit country but it is also a consumer of different drugs, regretting that most of the youth from wealthy families were using drugs. Over 6 million people are drug addicts in Pakistan.”[9]

In Afghanistan all counter narcotics efforts failed despite of spending $7.6 Billion U.S. Afghan farmers grew a record 209,000 hectares of opium poppy in 2013, up from the prior record in 2007 of 193,000 hectares, according to the latest statistics from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. The country’s opium poppy cultivation was valued at $3 billion in 2013 – a 50 percent increase from the previous year – as Afghanistan continues to produce nearly 90 percent of the world’s supply.[10]The money earned through opium trade is used in gun and arms trade which is pivotal in Taliban insurgency.

The US led War on Terror (WOT) could not achieve the desired results of democracy, good governance, rule of law, corruption free society and all other statecraft ideals in more than a decade. At this crucial juncture, when US withdraws in December, 2014, all the neighbors of Afghanistan must cooperate and support war-torn country in nation building, reconciliation and economic development as these are the Prerequisite  for better and prosperous future of Afghanistan,  where Afghan people decide their fate rather than decisions taken abroad and imposed on them.

Pakistan can play a significant role for peace and economic development in Afghanistan provided it makes its house in order first. China’s increasing interest in Afghanistan and its peace process must be welcome. It can serve as a mitigating/neutralizing factor in the acrimonious Pak-Afghan-India relationship and thus try to neutralize the impact of geo-politics that these three countries are involved in.

In the context, a lesson that Pakistan and China should learn from the US-led intervention in Afghanistan is that a security-centric, contractor-driven, selective approach instead of an-inclusive approach in conflict management and conflict resolution will never entail success.  Unholy, short-term, tactical alliances with murderers/criminals in the name of security are extremely damaging in the long term. What is needed is an equal-handed, long-term, all-inclusive engagement with all stakeholders and only such an approach can help Afghanistan successfully handle its national reconciliation efforts.

Accusing others of duplicity, double games but   pretending innocence on their own double games is not tenable. Only Bilateral and multilateral trust and Sincerity will help promote the national reconciliation.  That is why, while others support Afghanistan diplomatically, economically and politically, let Afghans decide their fate among themselves

Imtiaz Gul and CRSS Research Fellow Abbas Ahmad

[1] Under BSA  slightly over,9,000 US military personnel will stay in Afghanistan beyond December 31, 2014, the announced US withdrawal. The BSA will remain enforced until the end of 2024 and beyond unless it is terminated by either side with two years notice. See more at http://www.rferl.org/content/explainer-bsa-afghan-us-security-agreement-bsa/26613884.html

[2]Slobodan Lekic, “Afghanistan’s new government set to sign BSA on Tuesday, Stars and Stripes, September 29, 2014, http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/afghanistan/afghanistan-s-new-government-set-to-sign-bsa-on-tuesday-1.305552n (accessed October 19, 2014)

[3] Vasudevan Sridharan, “Afghanistan: New President Ashraf Ghani Calls Taliban for Talks, International Business Times, September 29, 2014 (accessed October 19, 2014)

[4] Ibid

[5] Parwana Alizada, Abdullah wouldn’t ‘compromise on the Taliban, DW, April 23, 2014, http://www.dw.de/abdullah-wouldnt-compromise-on-the-taliban/a-17584404 (accessed October 21, 2014)

[6] Ayaz Gul, “Pakistan Upbeat About Relations with New Afghan Government, Voice of America, October 01, 2014,  http://www.voanews.com/content/pakistan-upbeat-about-relations-with-new-afghan-government/2468731.html (accessed October 18, 2014)

[7] Trilateral dialogue stresses regional approach to counter challenges, Pak Tribune, October 20, 2014 http://paktribune.com/news/Trilateral-dialogue-stresses-regional-approach-to-counter-challenges-272144.html (accessed October 22, 2014)

[8] Promoting U.S.-Pakistan Relations: Future Challenges and Opportunities, Council on Foreign Relations, September 26, 2014 http://www.cfr.org/pakistan/promoting-us-pakistan-relations-future-challenges-opportunities/p33524 (accessed October 21, 2014)

[9] Inamullah Khattak, “Drug cartels eyeing Pakistan market, The Nation, September 25, 2014, http://nation.com.pk/national/25-Sep-2014/drug-cartels-eyeing-pakistan-market (accessed October 22, 2014)

[10] Michael Pizzi, “Afghan opium cultivation hits record high, fueling Taliban insurgency, Aljazeera America, October 21, 2014 http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/10/21/afghanistan-opiumrecord.html (accessed October 22, 2014)