‘It is my earnest desire and the desire of Dr Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of India and the people of India that we would like to see a stable, peaceful, progressive Pakistan as our neighbor because that will be beneficial to the entire region.’ These promising remarks that the Indian Minister for External Affairs S M Krishna shared with media at the Lahore airport, while wrapping up his three day long visit to Pakistan on 9th September[1] perhaps mark a new beginning in the chequered history of relations between two south Asian nuclear-armed neighbours. During his visit to Pakistan, he met with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf, Foreign Minister Ms Hina Rabbani Khar and other delegations of different political parties. The two sides also agreed not only to ease the travel restrictions but to facilitate ease of movement for tourists, pilgrims, the elderly and children and those all-important businessmen without whom all the agreements and accords of bilateral trade and business would fell flat. According to this landmark agreement both countries will launch a ferry service between Karachi and Mumbai, and allow daily direct flights between Islamabad and Delhi.’[2]There are direct flights between Lahore, Karachi and New Delhi, Mumbai, but no direct flight between the capital cities. Thus according to the new agreement, both the states would soon start direct flights between two capital cities, which take 46 minutes to reach from one capital to other one. Although business community in both countries is not much interested in visiting capital cities, yet the move can be helpful for officials, civil society members and most of all for the residents of both the cities.
Ms Khar sounded upbeat on the state and course of the bilateral dialogue. ‘We will move forward-, we will not be held hostage to history,’ she told a joint news conference with Krishna after signing the agreement. She underscored that both the states should learn from the past and should not forego any opportunity, for building a close and cordial relations. ‘Pakistan is committed not to lose any opportunities. Pakistan is committed to creating new opportunities,’ she observed.[3] Meanwhile, the Indian external affairs– minister also pledged to make constructive moves to realize peace which, according to him, is an essential precursor to prosperity for the people of two countries and also for the region. It looks India is more keen and upcoming to enhance trade ties with to fend off other ‘— simmering conflict with Pakistan because conflict is not good for economic progress and it feels that the situation has forced Pakistan to come round to putting premium on enhanced trade relations, friendly exchanges and people-to-people contact. New Delhi also feels that movement in these areas could help it pull Pakistan in on the issue of terrorism—-.’[4]
Although the soft talk, goodwill gestures by Ms Khar and Mr Krishna as well as the accord on visa liberalization underline thaw in India-Pakistan relations and certainly reflect the unraveling of a new phase of relations accompanied by guarded optimism. . Moreover, all of this is both desirable and laudable, but an earnest look into the issues and challenges for sustainable peace between India and Pakistan reveals that the newly announced measures are merely of cosmetic value in the absence of progress on the big issues, the real sticking points, like the issues of Sir Creek, Siachen and Kashmir continue to elude possible solution, Observers in Pakistan argue that though India is looking keen on peddling the peace-through-trade philosophy, yet it should be mindful of the fact that— ‘its insistence on maintaining the status quo on political differences may sell well in that country, but it would be unfortunate if it were to look at Pakistan merely as a market for its consumer goods.’[5] This could amount to establishing economic linkages at the cost of views the Pakistani security establishment has held for decades.
In the aftermath of the multiple and deadly Mumbai attacks on November 26, 2008, Pakistani intelligence agency, Inter-services Intelligence (ISI) was blamed for facilitating these attacks. Relations between the two countries, as a direct consequence of these attacks, came to a grinding halt. The Indian external affairs minister spelt it out quite eloquently in the past that in case of any recurrence of Mumbai-like incident relations between the two countries could lapse again.
Resumption of formal talks over a year ago eventually led to Mr. Krishna Pakistan visit, injecting new hopes into the relationship that has remained marked by acrimony, mistrust and antagonism both governments are now trying their best to ride out of the bad patch, yet compelling political realities appear to be serving as the speed-breakers which are holding them back. As both in Pakistan and India general elections are slated to be in 2103 and 2014 respectively. No government wants to deviate from the stated positions for fear of political setbacks. Talking about the issue of Kashmir and terrorism, Alok Bansal, a retired officer of the Indian navy noted that ‘it would have been extremely difficult for the two governments to move from their stated positions on this issue at the best of times. The inherent weakness of the two governments at this juncture makes it virtually impossible.’[6] Against this background of obstructive political realities and changing domestic and regional environments, both states are trying to forge a new partnership, albeit with the emphasis, as of now, on trade expansion. Currently the gross volume of bilateral trade is merely $2 billion and it has the potential to cross $10 billion mark within next five years.
Despite the Indian emphasis on trade-first, and little movement on the core issues like Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, water dispute, etc., political and security analysts believe that the Pakistani leadership seems to be reconciled with the fact that there is hardly any way around fixing relations with India through military means alone. ‘The discussion in the corridors of power in Islamabad, and even Rawalpindi (where the mighty military establishment is headquartered) to some extent has categorically shifted from ¿we should– to ¿we have no option–. And thus, what we are witnessing is a Pakistan that has come around to India longstanding demand of moving along on economic ties while other issues are dealt with at their own pace,’ underlined the South Asia expert at United States Institute of Peace, Washington, Dr Moeed Yusuf.[7] In the past, civilian leaders tried to take this very route but unfortunately, military leadership scuttled most of such moves in the name of national security interests.
While the Pakistanis dithered, India moved on with astounding growth in external relations and international trade. At the same time it kept fighting Pakistan-backed proxies in the Himalayan region of Kashmir. Pakistan always preferred to keep Kashmir top of the agenda but following years of international isolation on the issue Pakistan, at last agreed with Indian approach of conflict resolution i.e. topping the agenda with how to counter terrorism.
‘Two years ago, Pakistan rejected the step-by-step approach when we suggested it. Now, that is being adopted by both countries,’ said, Mr Krishna, in a separate briefing for the 60-member Indian media contingent travelling with him.[8]
Against this backdrop of over six decades of antagonism, both states have ostensibly learnt their lessons. Moreover, following on its economic progress, now part of the top-ten economies, it seems anxious to secure its backyards. Also, it wants to have more leverage in the world affairs and especially at the United Nations, equivalent to its economic status and regional influence. To achieve this, it will have to invest more in peaceful settlement of disputes with its neighbours and particularly with Pakistan, which, too seems to have learnt its lessons in a bitter way. Both India and Pakistan now appear set to strike new deals in trade and energy. Energy in fact is a big point of convergence for both energy-deficient economies. Closer ties between two states can help to materialize the Iran-Pakistan-India (now Iran-Pakistan) and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan- India gas pipelines projects. Both of these gas pipeline projects can provide cheap energy resources to the energy deficient, India and Pakistan. Also these multi-lateral energy projects can be a source of regional connectivity.
With these several convergences, notwithstanding, much can still go wrong in a volatile region, where anti-peace lobbies are well-entrenched. Only a major Mumbai-like act of terrorism could the litmus test for the two countries– latest resolve for economic cooperation and putting the past behind.