As a member of the Board of Governors at the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), I have long been passionate about water security. I anticipated a strong, effective response to the Indian government’s misinterpretation of the need to revisit or renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty, particularly under the pretext of climate change. This narrative threatens peace in South Asia by overshadowing the stability essential for addressing poverty.
I am reaching out to you as federal secretaries, given your roles as principal accounting officers for this vital matter, which is a lifeline for Pakistan. On January 25, 2023, India issued a notice requesting modifications to the treaty, followed by another on August 30, 2024, seeking further changes. The second notice stated that no further meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission would occur until both governments engage in renegotiation discussions, effectively pausing the treaty’s three-tiered dispute resolution process.
You have the original documents, and it is critical to note that India’s justification revolves around climate change and environmental challenges in the watersheds of the Western and Eastern rivers. The vague, lackluster response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on September 19, 2024, suggests that both the Ministry of Water Resources and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have failed to adequately address the issue. Decisive action could have mitigated the situation earlier. Revisiting the treaty threatens Pakistan’s water security, which is deeply tied to the nation’s energy, food, and economic stability.
I firmly believe that DG (India), the Pakistani High Commissioner in New Delhi, and his staff must be aware of the press coverage of the proceedings of the 17th Lok Sabha Standing Committee on Water Resources (2021–22). In Recommendation No. 31 (Para No. 2.39), the committee directed the Government of India with the following words:
“There is a need to renegotiate the Treaty to establish some kind of institutional structure or legislative framework to address the impact of climate change on water availability in the Indus basin and other challenges which are not covered under the Treaty. Hence, the Committee urges the Government of India to take necessary diplomatic measures to renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan.”
Are both Ministries aware of how the Indian government, through the Ministry of Jal Shakti, informed the joint parliamentary committee of the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha? Let me share that, through O.M. No. H-11013/10/2019-Parl. Dated 04.01.2022, the Government of India submitted the following statement to both Houses:
“The Treaty can be modified jointly by the two Governments.”
Even a student of contract management knows that the Indus Water Treaty lacks an exit clause, meaning neither India nor Pakistan can legally abrogate it unilaterally. Therefore, India cannot easily—and likely will not—abrogate the treaty. So why, then, were the periodic meetings of both Indus Commissioners suspended, despite the absence of an exit clause?
Can I ask whether the two Ministries have responded to the Indian government’s statements in both Houses of Parliament? Please share a copy of the response with CRSS and with the 250 million people of Pakistan.
One thing is certain: the Indians did not raise any objections to any article, clause, or annexure of the Indus Water Treaty—only climate change and environmental degradation compelled members of both houses of the Indian Parliament to issue the notice.
The data presented in the accompanying figures and tables is derived from extensive mathematical calculations. Notably, diplomats, politicians, authors, and even religious leaders can influence the interpretation of mathematical data. This raises a critical question: how can a nation impose demands on lower riparian countries that have no control over the watersheds affected by climate change?
Pakistan faces significant institutional challenges, particularly regarding inefficiencies and corruption within the Ministry of Climate Change. Meanwhile, India has successfully accrued carbon credits for hydropower projects in Indian-administered Kashmir, as recognized by the UNFCCC. The UNFCCC’s addendum, letter No. FCCC/KP/CMP/2005/8/Add.1 dated March 30, 2006, under clause 37, requires project participants to document environmental impacts, including transboundary effects.
Unfortunately, the following link reveals how the Ministry of Climate Change has become a hub of corruption instead of addressing the challenges posed by India:
Power Struggles in Climate Ministry.
I urge both secretaries to bring this matter to the Prime Minister’s attention.
I would also like to review official reports on how Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and other Northern States have experienced environmental degradation leading to climate change. Over the past 25 years, I have worked to preserve the Himalayan region, the world’s youngest mountain range, which is prone to erosion, landslides, and instability due to seismic activity. I closely monitored the Chamoli glacier burst in Uttarakhand, India, on February 7, 2021, which destroyed the 13.2 MW Rishiganga hydropower project and swept away the under-construction 520 MW Tapovan-Vishnugad project. Human-induced climate change is also impacting the Himalayan region.
I propose the complete withdrawal of the Indian Army, including the dismantling of all defence infrastructure along the 3,488 km border with China, from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh. Additionally, the cessation of India’s 211,000 MW coal power plants would help restore the hydrological cycle within 5 to 10 years. Dr. Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, former IPCC chairman and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has strongly supported this perspective.
Revisiting the Indus Water Treaty will not contribute to stabilizing climate change and lacks scientific justification.
It appears that 18 Indian parliamentarians have been misled by pseudo-experts and controversial organizations advocating for a treaty revision:
- Experts Call to Revise Indus Water Treaty
- Dawn’s Report on Treaty Revisions
- SDPI’s Call for Revisiting the Treaty
These individuals appear to lack a fundamental understanding of the relevant ministry and have squandered India’s resources on efforts to revisit or renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty, which remains one of the most effective international agreements. Having visited India numerous times, I can confirm that the citizens of both nations aspire to coexist peacefully as neighbors. Any attempt to incite conflict between the two countries would ultimately be futile.
I also wish to convey to our 1.2 billion Indian neighbors that the sharing of the Indus Basin waters has been a longstanding tradition for millennia. Altering this arrangement could trigger unprecedented people-to-people conflicts, whereas previous wars were primarily fought between armies. Such a change could potentially ignite the onset of a third and final world war.
Arshad H Abbasi