The two ongoing operations in the country, one in North Waziristan and the other in Karachi, are being closely monitored by analysts. The basic question boggling their mind is, “are these operations going to bring the violence down in the country and create an environment that can ensure peaceful existence for the people in the country?” This report is an attempt to find an answer to this crucial question using the factual data we collect every month. The following topics are picked up for the purpose of such an analysis:

Deaths due to violence in the country during July 2014

Casualties of violence in Balochistan

Casualties of violence in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)

Casualties of violence in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP)

Casualties of violence in Punjab

Casualties of violence in Sindh

The report is based on open-source information i.e. national newspapers. CRSS tries its best to be objective and factually correct, errors and omissions, however, are aalways a possibility in all statistical works. However, such mistakes do not grossly affect the basic objective of this report.

CRSS will appreciate receiving comments that the readers may have on this report.

Report prepared by:

Mohammad Nafees

Senior Research Fellow

Center for Research and Security Studies

NOTE: Readers can approach CRSS for source of any information included in the report. Please send your request to: mail@crss.pk or mohammad.nafees@yahoo.com.

OVERVIEW

Deaths due to violence in the country during July 2014:

As many as 690 persons lost their lives and 175 were wounded in violence related incidents during the month of July, more than 25% reduction in fatality rate compared to last month (Refer table 1 and graph 1).

Table 1: Deaths from violence in Pakistan – (Jan – July 2014):

Graph 1: Deaths from violence in Pakistan – (Jan – July 2014):

The highest number of fatalities was recorded in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)i.e. 343, followed by Sindh 208, KP 79, Balochistan 38, and Punjab 25. Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Islamabad, and GilgitBaltistan had a peaceful month of July as there were no casualties off religious violence or terrorism in these areas during this month. Military operation in North Waziristan killed at least 207 TTP and foreign militants – almost one third of the total fatalities of this month in the whole country. In June, the figure for the victims of military operation in North Waziristan and Khyber Agency was 416, twice the numbers recorded in July. These figures are based on the reports released by the Pakistan Army’s public relations department Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR).

ISPR and published by the local press. The only information found missing in these reports is the number of militants that must have been wounded during the military operation carried out through air raids and ground operation. As no other source of information is available, we have to rely on the figures provided by ISPR.

Civilian fatalities dropped by about 20% of the total fatalities, unlike those of militants, whose death rate went up by 48% of the total fatalities in the country. Prior to the military operation (from January – 14 June 2014), civilians’ fatalities accounted for about 42% of the total deaths from violence (Refer table 2).

Table 2: Civilian’s deaths before military operation and in July 2014:

Another noticeable change in fatalities of violence can be observed at city level. Since the beginning of military operation, North Waziristan replaced Karachi as the place for the highest fatality rate and that trend continues underscoring the fact that the military operation remains focused on pursuing its target aggressively. Drone attacks in North Waziristan have also contributed in raising the death rate in FATA (Refer graph 2)

Graph 2: Deaths from violence on city level –July 2014

A review of different forms of violence reveals a downward trend in fatalities from target killings, security operation, militants’ attacks, and sectarian attacks. Deaths from drone attacks, terrorism, and robbery related incidents have gone up while the in-fight between the rival groups of TTP became a non-issue after military operation and didn’t cause any deaths during this month (Refer table 3).

Table 3: Causes of deaths – Jan – July 2014 (comparative data):

On provincial level what change took place in crime rate is reviewed in the following section of the report:

Casualties of violence in Balochistan:

Deaths = 38

Injured = 67

The month of July was reasonably peaceful for Balochistan as the loss of human lives during this month was the lowest in the whole year of 2014. The casualties of violence in Balochistan during the month of July were 105 (38 deaths and 67 injured), nearly 50% down from those in June. (Refer table 4). However, out of these 38 persons who lost their lives, 17 were civilians and the next highest victims of violence were 15 security personnel , two militants , one political activists , and one government official . In Quetta, the capital city of Balochistan, there was a significant upsurge in crime rate compared to the last two months as is shown in the Table 4 below. Khuzdar and Loralai districts recorded the second highestnumber of deaths from violence during this month (Refer graph 3)

Table 4: Deaths from violence in Balochistan and Quetta – Jan – July 2014:

Graph 3: Deaths from violence in Balochistan–July

Casualties of violence in FATA:

Deaths = 343

Injured = 23

FATA witnessed more than 30% reduction in death rate compared to the last month. The majority of them occurred in North Waziristan (Refer table 5). Among the victims of violence, the majority was of militants numbering 276 followed by 60 security officials and seven civilians. There is little information available about the identity of the militants except that 29 of them were Uzbeks (as claimed by the ISPR). Other than the militants, there were 48 army personnel, 10 FC personnel, and two Khassadars who lost their lives in the ongoing operation in the North Waziristan.

During the operation, military jets and helicopters were used to carry out bombardment on militants’ hideouts and in the month of July, ten reports appeared in the press reporting such attacks against the militants. On 28th July, ISPR claimed to have cleared 70% of Mir Ali in North Waziristan from the militants. In FATA, some 252 people were killed in security operation, drone attacks, acts of terrorism (planting of bomb, IED, and landmine caused deaths to 14 persons) and terrorist attacks

Table 5: Deaths from violence in FATA and North Waziristan – Jan – July 2014:

Casualties of violence in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP):

Deaths = 79

Injured = 31

There was no respite in deaths from violence in the province of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP) during the month of July, 2014 and the same was the case in its capital city, Peshawar. While KP experienced a 20% increase in deaths off militant violence, its capital city, Peshawar, experienced 40% rise in such deaths (Refer table 6). Among other districts of KP, the highest affected areas of violence were Hangu with 14 reported incidents, Dir 13, Swat 11, and D.I. Khan Four. Majority of the victims of violence were civilians 40, militants 18, security officials 12, and three each were criminals and religious persons.

Target killings claimed some 25 lives, while, at least 37 people were killed in acts of violence by militants and terrorists. About nine custodial deaths were also reported. The phenomenon of custodial deaths has become significant since April.

Among the victims of violence in KP, the police suffered the highest losses i.e. 10 personnel followed by six TTP terrorists, four members of Shia community, three Lashkar-e-Islami terrorists, two Frontier Constabulary (FC) and one Elite Force personnel.

Table 6: Deaths from violence in KP and Peshawar – Jan – July 2014:

Casualties of violence in Punjab:

Dead = 25

Injured = 17

In Punjab, the casualties of violence were 43 (25 dead and 17 injured), the lowest crime and violence casualties compared to other provinces. Lahore, the capital city of Punjab, lost nine persons to violence during this month followed by six in Faisalabad, four in Bahawalpur, three in Gujranwala, two in Muzaffargarh, and one in Multan. Among the victims 12 were civilians, six security officials, five militants, and two criminals. Although the crime rate in Punjab was the lowest, the nature of violence was dominantly sectarian. Out of six security officials, two were posted as guards at the Sufi Shrine of Uch Sharif and were targeted because of sectarian hatred.

One of the two high profile incidents of violence that took place in Punjab during this month was also related to sectarian in nature. It occurred in Gujranwala, when an angry mob of several thousand people attacked the houses of Ahmadi community in Arafat Colony causing death to three persons (two teenage girls and a pregnant woman), because of unverified blasphemy accusation against a boy belonging to their community.

The other incident took place in Raiwind on the outskirts of Lahore, when a security operation was carried out against some militants hiding in a compound in Aaryan village. Two militants and an Elite Force commando died during the operation. The operation lasted for about 10 hours during which heavy exchange of gunfire between the militants and security officials took place. The press reports on this incident were highly controversial because of the number of militants killed in the operation continued changing from one report to another.

Security operation carried out at different locations of the Punjab left eight criminals and militants dead. In other incidents of deaths robbery claimed lives of six people, six killed in target killings, three in religiously activated mob attack, one in terrorism , and one in female brutality^[1].

Casualties of violence in Sindh:

Dead = 203

Injured = 37

During July, Sindh registered the second highest number of casualties after North Waziristan, though the death rate in the month was 15% down from the previous month. As always, the majority of the people died in Sindh were from Karachi city but the fatality rate was 10% down from previous month (Refer table 7).

Table 7: Deaths from violence in Sindh and Karachi – Jan – July 2014:

Civilians constituted the highest number of victims of violence in Sindh i.e. 73, followed by 44 criminals, 36 militants, 27 security officials (23 policemen and 4 rangers), 12 religious party activists, nine political activists , and four religious persons. The localities highly affected of violence in Karachi were Lyari, Orangi, Landhi, Sohrab Goth, Liaquatabad, SITE, Peerabad and many other places (Refer graph 4).

Graph 4: Deaths from violence in Sindh July 2014

Lately Hyderabad, the second largest city of Sindh, has also become affected of criminal activities and during the last five months crime rate in this city has shown an upward trend (Refer table 8).

Table 8: Deaths from violence in Hyderabad – Jan – July 2014:

The ongoing operation in Karachi left 75 criminals and militants dead in encounters with the security forces during this month. Police claimed to have killed 61 criminals and Rangers killed nine criminals while the joint operations of Rangers and Police left three criminals dead. Robbers have also killed eight persons in the city. The security officials have also suffered a loss of their personnel. In July, Police lost 23 persons while the loss of Rangers was four. On average, the Police lost one person every second day during this year. Among all other security personnel, the police have been the main target of the criminals in Karachi and this trend took a sharp rise from June onward (Refer table 9).

Table 9: Deaths of policemen – Jan – July 2014:

It is believed that the military operation in FATA has been one of the reasons for the rise in killings of the policemen in Karachi. Out of 36 militants that were killed in security operation in July, 31 belonged to the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban of Pakistan and the remaining two were associated with the TTP Swat as reported by the police. Other than FATA, Karachi has now become another location of militant activities of TTP that are suspected of targeting the security officials besides indulging into extortion and kidnapping for ransom activities.

Target killing was one of the most frequently used methods of violence that left 91 persons dead in Karachi, nearly 20% down from the last month and the lowest for the whole year (Refer table 10 and graph 5). These table and graph show a downward trend in deaths from target killings in Karachi and rest of the country from February onward.

Table 10: Deaths from target killings in Karachi – Jan – July 2014:

Graph 5: Trend of target killings in Karachi – July 2014

Sectarian killings also occurred in Sindh leaving 12 persons dead seven of whom were Shia, four were Sunni, and one was Ahmadi. All of them were killed in Karachi with the exception of one person from Ahmadi community that was killed in Nawabshah.

Conclusion:

A downward trend in crime rate was noticeable in the month of July. This is the second month of this year when no suicide attack took place in the country; the last one was the month of April when no suicide attack took place. The other crime rates that register downward or upward trend are as follows:

Militants’ attacks 50% down from 568 to 342

Sectarian attacks 50% down from 44 to 23

Target killings 20% down from 178 to 149

TTP inflight 100% Zero occurrence

Security operation 40% down from 568 to 342

Terrorism 30% up from 32 to 42

Robbery 9 times up from 2 to 19

Drone attacks 140% up from 22 to 52

Deaths from Target Killings

Unlike previous months, no act of violence was claimed by any outlawed militant organization during the month of July and there was a significant drop in the acts of terrorism during this month. The table 11 below shows that no suicide attacks, rocket attack, and cracker attack took place in the month of July and the total number of such attacks were only 54 compared to average 98 per month incidents during the previous six months.

Table 11: Deaths from target killings in Karachi – Jan – July 2014:

It is hoped that this downward trend in acts of violence will not be a temporary phase and the government will take every measure to keep the violence under control.

1. FAISALABAD: A policeman was killed by some women during a raid in Garh police limits on Friday.According to a police spokesman, ASI Rehmat Ali conducted a raid on a house in GarhFateh Shah to arrest a proclaimed offender, Jaafar Ali. During the raid, some women severely beat up the ASI and critically injured him. He was rushed to the Allied Hospital where he died. http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-2-261345-Briefs↑