Finally, some official version of the Abbottabad operation¶by the U.S. Navy SEALs flying from Afghanistan that killed Osama Bin Laden¶has emerged from Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). The May 3 press release, though a much-awaited effort in the right direction on the part of the government, highlights some serious contradictions in our engagement with the U.S. as well as flaws of our intelligence and security apparatus. The MFA press release categorically denies any prior notice to Pakistani civilian or military leadership on the raid. President Zardari had earlier admitted that it was not a joint operation, while the U.S. officials acknowledge it as well.
In its statement, the MFA argues that the U.S. helicopters took advantage of the mountainous terrain, sophisticated technology, and advanced ¿nap the earth– flying techniques to avoid detection by Pakistan radar system. Even though it hastens to add that an analogy of this civilian area should not be made with security installations, it would hardly convince anyone because this civilian area is within the military cantonment and only a couple of miles away from Pakistan only training school for army officers.
The penetration of a foreign army so deep into Pakistani territory undetected (for whatever purpose) casts serious doubts over the capabilities of its security apparatus to defend its citizens, or even key defense installations. This could provide a license for similar attacks against other perceived high-value targets by the U.S. or even India. The Indian Ministry for External Affairs has already issued a statement saying, ‘The world must not let down its united effort to overcome terrorism and eliminate safe havens and sanctuaries that have been provided to terrorists in our own neighborhood. The struggle must continue unabated.’ It was followed by another statement by the Indian Air Chief, P.V. Naik, who has claimed that India has the capability to conduct similar attacks against terrorist targets in Pakistan. Whatever the claims of Pakistan government, Pakistanis have reasons to be worried as the circumstances of the operation are making it to the news.
The MFA also claims that Pakistan Inter-services Intelligence (ISI) provided initial leads to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on the attacked compound; an assertion contradicted, once again, by the CIA. U.S. official say that some initial leads were provided by Pakistan, but they were not about this particular compound. Actually, the MFA contradicts itself in the same document by defending its lack of knowledge about presence of Osama Bin Laden in the mysteriously fortified compound by saying that the internally displaced persons (IDPs) of the military operations in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) usually build such homes in other parts of the country. This raises some serious questions, like: Why didn–t Pakistan know about the particular hideout being used by Osama bin Laden in the garrison city of Abbottabad? Even if ISI knew about the presence of foreigners in the targeted compound (as claimed by the MFA), why didn–t it investigate it further as much as the Americans did? One of the leading Pakistani journalists, Rahimullah Yusufzai, who is an expert on militancy, was quoted as saying, ‘It is a bit embarrassing, that even if he was hiding there, (the Pakistan army) would not know. It means your intelligence is not good.’
The Director of CIA, Leon Panetta, has clearly stated that CIA did not share information about the raid with ISI because it believed that the information could be leaked to Bin Laden. Such is the level of distrust between the Americans and the Pakistanis at the official level, which is not helping Pakistan cause at the Capitol Hill. Senior U.S. Senator, Joseph Lieberman, has already expressed his angst over Pakistan perceived unwillingness to tackle terrorism by saying that Pakistan will have to prove to the U.S. that it did not know about the whereabouts of Bin Laden. The U.S. Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Marc Grossman came to Pakistan with a similar stern message of ‘patience in Congress wearing thin’ for Pakistan. This distrust is spreading across western capitals like a wild contagion. France has already sought an explanation from the Pakistani Prime Minister during his Paris visit on the issue of Pakistan inability or unwillingness to find Bin Laden in the backyard of its military training school.
While the world is not sure whether Pakistan is serious in its war on terror effort, Taliban have already put the blame on Pakistan and have announced retaliation against Pakistan and the U.S. Al-Qaeda would also wait for its time to strike back. The death of Osama Bin Laden is a great loss for the organization, but it does not mark an end to it. It is more of an ideology than an organization, and its followers would certainly be planning some massive retaliatory attacks. We might see increased terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and elsewhere.
Pakistan has all the reasons in the world now to rein in Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, because Pakistan will suffer whether they attack in Pakistan or anywhere else in the world. If they are able to launch an attack in any western country, international opinion might shift strongly in favor of more such surgical strikes in the mainland of Pakistan on credible evidence, which could be exploited by any country. If there is any loser in this drama, it is Pakistan.