Pakistan ´ In the Middle of Crises:

Pakistanfinds itself in a perennial state of crisis ´ ranging from economic to acute power shortages to Islamist militancy to domestic political polarization to the unprecedented floods that have affected or displaced 20 million Pakistanis from the north to the south. The Indus river torrents continue to maroon thousands of villages in the south of the country, and have forced hundreds of thousands out of their homes. This represents a crisis bigger than the one Pakistan faced last year after its army moved against radical Taliban militants; the military operation resulted in displacement of slightly over two million in the Swat region. But the devastating floods have displaced several million within last three weeks, with little hope for hundreds of thousands in countless southern villages and towns right and left of the Indus.

It is the Super Flood with no parallel in the last 120 years that has killed close to 1500, devastated over half of Pakistan cash crops such as cotton, sugarcane and paddy rice, wiping out about half a million small farmers financially. Already, half of Pakistan 180 million people live off less thantwo dollars a day. The scale of the disaster has already the United Nations and the Organization of the Islamic Conference scrambling for emergency meetings to think of ways how to help the impoverished millions.

Backbone of the Agriculture Feared Broken:

Agriculture Economists worry that hundreds of thousands offarmers along the Indus in the south would be unable to enter their excessively soaked fields for several weeks. The ground water level is already hardly 25 feet and the land would not absorb the waters quick enough to allow next sowing in time.

…but Political Landscape is Divided:

Its consequences will also be gigantic, necessitating unusual response from the polarized political leadership. A former prime minister Mir Zafrullah Jamali and a federal minister Ejaz Aslam Jhkahrani are already locked in a battle of accusations; Jamali insists that Jhakhrani engineered a major breach of the Toori Protective embankment which has inundated the former village inBalochistanprovince that sits on the border with Jhakhrani homein the Sindhprovince. Most believe that the Toori Embankment was punctured to protect the Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad, that the US Marines and the CIA also use for army and drone operations inAfghanistan. The city of Jacobabad, remains surrounded by waters todate, with no road or rail link. Politicians in the centralPunjabprovince Accusations of preemptive breaches at certain places have also been hurling similar allegations at each other.

Crisis after Crisis: Is a Social Upheaval in the Offing?

Jehangir Tareen, one of the biggest landlords and a former minister, warns of a socio-political upheaval if politicians continued to squabble. Hundreds of thousands of small farmers need immediate compensation and fresh inputs to be able to prepare for the next crop. If that doesn–t happen, we will face even a bigger crisis. Most Pakistanis are already on the edge because of acute power shortages across country;on Wednesday, thousands of residents in small towns near Peshawar, for instance, blocked the Motorway that connects the city with capitalIslamabadas well as the old Grand Trunk Road for several hours to protest absence of electricity several hours a day. Most of these areas in the northwest, located near the Indus andKabulrivers, were inundated until a few days ago, forcing the authorities to switch off the supply. Millions of people in the south have also been facing a similar ordeal after flood waters forced their way into a few major power plants including Kot Addu, Jamshoro and Qadirpur Gas Fields, which supply the power companies with natural gas.

Political Opposition already Rising:

Demands for self-help and measures such as halving the size of unusually high federal and provincial cabinets and similar austerity measures are already gaining ground. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took the lead in this regard. ‘We can mobilize over four billion dollars at home, why ask others,’ Sharif suggested last week. He is also insisting on the composition of a neutral Flood Relief Commission comprising non-political and credible national personalities. Sharif also expressed his anguish on the delay in the constitution of the proposed commission that prime minister Yousuf Reza Gilani had agreed to.

Unless the government moved swiftly for coordination on rehabilitation with local and foreign non-governmental organizations, and until it shunned political expedience, it could face a groundswell of unrest all over, creating a space that Islamist parties are craving to occupy. Officials are already struggling to stop banned outfits such as Jamaatud Dawa from collecting donations for the flood victims ´ and is doing so successfully.

It is the duty of Pakistan and its allies to ensure the larger part of the population the continuity of their commitment in their rehabilitation ´ and quickly. The space that is being felt because of the slow pace of the government and efforts of the international community must not be permitted to be filled by the extremist organizations. Failing that, the recipe for a political and security disaster could be just only some years away.