Conscious of their respective limitations, the titans have decided to deescalate, and climb down from their stated positions. The Centre of Gravity ´ the Supreme Court, on January 30, gave two more months for the controversial ‘Memogate’ investigation, and lifted the travel ban on the man in the eye of the storm, Husain Haqqani, former ambassador to Washington[i]. Was it after all a tea-cup storm, hyped up by the security apparatus and Mansoor Ijaz, who acted as the whistle-blower on a memo not many believed in or did the refusal by Research in Motion (RIM) ´ the Blackberry owners ´ to share data with Pakistani judiciary ´ eventually consigned the case to the dustbin of history?
For several weeks, the Memogate agonized the entire nation for quite some time ´ an unnecessary expense of time and resource practically for nothing. This distasteful episode has clearly left a trail of unpleasant brinkmanship, slander, and speculation. But seen from a distance, it has also exposed some realities; for the first time in history, the apex court has emerged as the second strongest and largely unified power structure, only second to the mighty military establishment, which had until Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry revolt against General Pervez Musharraf on March 9, 2007, acted as the unquestioned wielder-cum-arbiter of political power. Ideally, the Parliament should stand out as the ultimate centre of power but given its shortcomings, precipitated by absence or lack of integrity on the political top, the pendulum has clearly swung towards the apex court ´ turning it into the centre of gravity that the Military, Imran Khan, head of Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf ´ a rising political force, and Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the opposition party Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz Group, look up to. The Zardari-led PPP (Pakistan Peoples– Party) government, too, is panting and gasping to escape the wrath of the enigmatic Supreme Court. Yet, the Court cannot dislodge the government, nor can it morally justify if its stated opposition to army intervention and involvement in politics if it ever invoked Article 190, which states that all executive and judicial authorities are bound to aid the Supreme Court, to seek army support for its rulings against the rulers. In the face of a defiant Zardari-Gulani government, superior courts– judges know they can only influence to a certain extent, can interpret law but cannot have the law or orders implemented.
Apparent detractors of Zardari and Gilani i.e. Nawaz Sharif and Military were depending on each other for success in SC against government. But realized they lacked the requisite authority. The Supreme Court depended on Mansoor Ijaz but he ditched them (this disappointed the military as well, so they realized they had put their bet on the wrong horse). Ijaz, citing security reasons, has so far failed to appear before the judicial commission to record his statement. All stake-holders are hamstrung by limitations and the socio-economic circumstances.
The Memogate and the NRO[ii] cases in fact marked the height of the triangular battle among PPP, Supreme Court and the GHQ (General Head Quarters, or The Army). Technically, they are still at loggerheads until the final disposal of these cases. Practically, operational constraints in an unfavourable environment prohibit them from continuing the collision course. Nobody wants to rock the boat. Is it a win-win situation for the troika under discussion or a loss for judiciary and the military because the Army and the ISI (Pakistan premier spy agency) chiefs had practically sworn that the Memogate was ‘ a reality’ and a conspiracy against national security? Whoever put Kayani, the army chief, and Pasha, the ISI chief, on this path certainly did a huge disservice to them because they shall have to bite the dust if the Memogate in particular becomes history?
What impact will these events have on the larger political landscape and how will the political scenario unfold in a situation in which
a) the judiciary is hamstrung by lack of power vis a vis the executive,
b) the army is on the defensive in wake of the OBL raid,[iii]
c) Awami National Party(ANP) is happy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa[iv]
d) The PML-N happy in Punjab[v],
e) Everybody part of Balochistan government,
f) The JUI-F, a religious opposition party headed by Molana Fazal ur Rehman, practically still enjoying privileges of power (despite being out of government for more than a year),
g) the MQM, Muttahida Qaumi Movement, sitting pretty (because it like the proverbial fish-bone for rulers both in Islamabad and Karachi)[vi] , and
h) the PPP, firmly in saddle in Islamabad, is now increasingly expanding the Benazir Income Support Programme, for the widows and poor, to the reported exclusion of other political parties ´ a ploy to ensure votes in the next elections?
For certain reasons, the steam seems to be out of Imran Khan tsunami[vii]; it has probably already peaked and meanwhile wobbly because of some questionable statements and actions of Imran who shocked many by talking of an election alliance with Jamaat e Islami, a religious political party. The very thought of Khan moving to JI looks very conservative. Many within his ranks even will not like it (Keep in mind the recent pronouncement of Syed Munawar Hassan, President JI, who told followers that ‘only beards and hijabs’ would usher in a revolution in the country). Following the influx of former Musharraf colleagues, from the PML-Q, many are certainly disappointed with PTI, and questioning as to whether these faces would attract popular vote across the board.
What is clear though that the explosive events of recent weeks did manage to pave way at least for an inter-party discussion on early elections ´ and hence Premier Gilani statement upon his return from Davos, in which he sounded open to the possibility of early elections after the budget. Apparently, federal minister Khursheed Shah has been tasked to open dialogue with other parties to discuss mechanism for early elections – and a caretaker administration. A central PML-N- leader told this scribe that the resignations from assemblies before Senate elections still remained an option. He ruled out any talks on the preservation of the current system, yet suggested that if any talks at all with PPP, their sole objective would be how to prepare for early elections which his party believes must be held as soon as possible.
Another issue bothering the N-League is the massive use of Benazir Income Support Programme ( initiated by PPP as a poverty alleviation measure) money. The N-League wants the distribution of money under this programme stopped immediately because PPP is continuously expanding the programme with the objective of winning over new voters. Surprisingly, it seems, both the United Kingdom and the USA as well as the World Bank, view grants under the BISP as stabilisation tools and have thus provided several hundred million dollars for distribution ( DFID gave 180 million, World Bank recently gave 50 million dollars).
Does this mean influential external factors such as the UK, USA, and international finance institutions (IFIs) are likely to support the present coalition into the new elections and would like them to return? They also would not like the boat to sink, one would presume. Similarly, all coalition partners ´ PPP, ANP,MQM- and the Q-League (a party assembled by Musharraf during his rule) ´also know they can succeed by sticking together, particularly in view of the possibility of Imran Khan PTI chipping off the vote bank of Jamaate Islami, PML-N and PML-Q. Imran Khan gain will be the Leagues– loss but a gain for the PPP as a whole. And this would mean another comfortable ride into power for the PPP? Well let us see to what extent has Zardari and Co outmaneuvered Nawaz Sharif and others.
[i] TheMemogate controversyrevolves around a memorandum seeking help of theObama administrationin wake of theOsama bin Laden raidto avert a military takeover of the civilian government in Pakistan, as well as assisting in a civilian takeover of the government and military apparatus. Mansoor Ejaz, an American Pakistani Businessman, alleged the then Pakistan Ambassador to US, Hussain Haqqani, of asking him to deliver the memo to the US authorities. Ejaz made these claims in an article on October 10, 2010.
[ii] National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) is a decree issued by the ex President General Pervez Musharraf in October 2007 to facilitate the return of ex Prime Minister, late Benzair Bhtto, Chairperson Pakistan Peoples’ Party, the largest opposition party during Musharraf’s rule. The ordinance had approximately 8000 beneficiaries whose cases and debts were written off. Although BB came back with massive support, her return didn’t assure her success in the elections. Unfortunately, she was assassinated on 27th of December, 2007, which led to her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, and her party’s coming in to power as a result of the her death’s sympathy vote.
[iii] Osama bin Laden, the founder and head of Al Qaeda, was killed inPakistanon Monday, May 2, 2011, by a United States special operations military unit. His compound in Abbotabad was raided by United States Navy Seals during the operation that was reportedly launched from Afghanistan. After the attack, the Pakistan Army came under heavy criticism as Osama’s compound was a short distance away from the Pakistan Military Academy. Another criticism that the army had to face from political leadership of the country was its inability to retaliate any attack by a foreign force. This piled up huge public as well as political pressure on the army, something rare for the country. International analysts, especially some in the US, alleged the army of sheltering OBL.
[iv] Awami National Party (ANP) is an ethnic Pashtun Party currently ruling the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(previously NWFP). The party is a strong proponent of Pashtun Nationalism.
[v] Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), the main opposition party in the center and ruling party in Punjab, population wise largest and politically the most important province of the country.
[vi] The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) largely represents the Urdu speaking immigrants that came from India after partition in 1947 to Sindh particularly Karachi.
[vii] Tsunami is described, by Imran Khan, as the mass influx of political leaders, activists and youth in his party, the Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf.