Insurgencies take long to be eliminated:
Once Mujahideen (Holy Warriors) and now Insurgents, both domestic and imported, are bent upon capturing Pakistani territory. Pakistani soldiers are now laying down their lives to reclaim the ‘occupied territory’ and keep Pakistan intact as one geographical entity. Many powerful armies have in the past taken years to beat back much weaker insurgents. The Huk Rebellion, the communist insurgency against the Philippine government, lasted for 8 years. The British Army (147,000 strong) along with the Territorial and Special Police Forces fought Irish insurgents for nearly 3 decades. The Bolshevik Red Army fought for 6 long years. The Angolan Civil War went on for 27 years. The Somali Civil War has been going on since 1991.

Why is Pakistan facing an insurgency?
In a nutshell, consecutive political and military leadership failures created ‘security and capacity gaps.’ In Swat, for instance, Pakistan state machinery failed to provide personal, economic and political security to Swat residents. Then there were capacity gaps that did not provide apt justice, food, health and education to a larger number of the residents. The Taliban slipped into these gaps both via coercive and, in situations service, measures and marginalized the state.

Pakistan cannot spread its army anymore thinner:
Abraham Lincoln fought, and won, the American Civil War by making the presence of his troops so ‘pervasive that there simply was no place left for insurgents to hide.’ General Franco repeated the Lincoln-model and brought down the Spanish Republic. In Pakistan case, Swat, Chitral, Dir, Shangla, Hangu, Lakki Marwat, Bannu, Tank, Khyber, Kurram, Bajaur, Mohamand, Orkzai, North Waziristan and South Waziristan all put together come to over 56,000 sq km; and with 7 Indian Corps on Pakistan eastern border, Pakistan Army does not have surplus troops to replicate either the Lincoln or the Franco model.

Pakistan should try the CHB strategy:
The American Enterprise Institute Iraq Planning Group developed a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy. The strategy calls for ‘Clear, Hold and Build’ (CHB). Here are the five phases of CHB:

1. Preparations; putting all the ‘necessary forces and equipment on the ground.’
2. Intelligence building; gathering intelligence on the size, strength and the command and control (C&C) structure of the enemy.
3. Clearing; the actual military operation, disrupting supply lines, dismantling C&C and seizing munitions.
4. Holding; troops to ‘take up residence in temporary military headquarters’ and police to be reequipped.
5. Building; the civilian administration to inject large amounts of capital to restore basic services like water, electricity, sewer, dispensation of justice, etc.

Pakistan army must capture or kill top tier leadership of Taliban:
Mao Tse-tung once wrote ‘the guerilla must swim in the people as the fish swims in the sea.’ The current operation in Swat, in counterinsurgency lingo, is referred to as ‘draining the swamp’ i.e. forced relocation of Swatis in order to isolate the insurgents. The insurgent infrastructure is now being disrupted, dismantled and defeated (or ‘3D’) and this has helped separating the ‘fish’ from the ‘sea.’ In that sense Pak Army is going by the book. This separation process, however, requires superb intelligence. And, intelligence is what the Pak Army is short on. Hence, the top tier leadership of Taliban has not been captured or killed. From the beginning of June, Pakistan Army has shown some commendable gains apparently on the basis of a renewed intelligence effort that is paying both tactical and strategic gains against the terrorists. Time is on the side of the guerillas. They mean to demoralize Pakistani troops through sneak attacks. As long as insurgents have popular support they have the advantages of ‘mobility, invisibility and legitimacy’. Pak Army would have to show some tangible proof of success in the immediate future and that certainly involves the capturing or killing of the top tier leadership of Taliban. According to legendry British military theorist, Captain HB Liddell Hart Model, the ‘key to a successful counterinsurgency is the winning-over of the occupied territory’s population. If that can be achieved, then the rebellion will be deprived of its supplies, shelter, and, more importantly, its moral legitimacy.’

The good news is that the whole world is on the side of Pakistan Army. The government now needs to set up a Provisional Reconstruction Authority and massively, and quickly, beef up the Swat police to hold the cleared territories.