Background
Started as an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Iraq, sharing same ideology, vision and goal with strategic differences, the Islamic state (IS) gained world attention, when it declared caliphate on June 29, 2014 with Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi as their caliph, started beheading spree of the westerners in orange jump suits like of Guantanamo detainees, winning territories both in Iraq and Syria, executing populace mainly Shia by the very extensive use of Takfir and ethnic cleansing of minorities like Yazidi community in Iraq.
There’s a “competition for jihadi leadership” in which the Islamic State disparages al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri and his lieutenants for hiding in the mountains as it tries to seize the global jihadi crown, said Derek Harvey, a former senior analyst on Iraq for General David Petraeus. [1] The dispute began on April 8, 2013 with a statement by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Iraq known then as the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). Al-Baghdadi declared that Jabhat al-Nusra (or the Nusra Front), which operated solely in Syria against Assad, was nothing but “an extension” of ISI and that the two would now be known under the new name of ISIS.[2] This declaration was quickly answered by a conflicting statement from the head of Jabhat al-Nusra, Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, which affirmed the group had been generously supported by ISI in its jihad, but implied that he had in fact sworn his bay’a (oath of an allegiance) to Ayman al-Zawahiri. In his statement, Jawlani renewed his oath to Zawahiri and declined to become part of the new ISIS.[3]
Financial and Physical Support
According to Pew research center report Tunisia dominates the IS ranks by sending 3,000 Jihadists, followed by 2,500 from Saudi Arabia, 1500 from Morocco and some 800 Russian nationals.[4] Number of foreign fighters coming to Syria from the western countries has increased immensely. Strikingly, France tops the list with presence of 700 French nationals in IS files, 500 Brits, 320 Germans, 250 from Belgium, 150 Australians and Netherlands shares 120. Meanwhile, more than 100 fighters are from US and Denmark, while 51 are from Spain.[5]
The terror network draws its huge physical and financial support from within Middle Eastern and Gulf countries. For instance, “The United States believes that private individuals in Qatar are helping to finance this group and others like it. And it thinks the Gulf state is not doing enough to stop this”.[6] Qatar’s security strategy has been to provide support to a wide range of regional and international groups in order to help shelter it from threats. This strategy has involved generously supporting Islamist organizations, including militant ones like Hamas and the Taliban. Allowing private local fundraising for Islamist groups abroad forms part of this approach.[7] Moreover, the captured oil refineries in Iraq, extortion money also adds to the finances.
Islamic State and Pakistan
A Pakistani terror group Tehrik-e-Khilafat based in Karachi, the provincial capital of the Sindh province pledged an oath of allegiance to IS,
“From today, Sheikh Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi shall consider Tehreek-e-Khilafat and Jihad mujahideen fighters of Pakistan as one of the arrows among his arrows which he has kept for his bow. We are praying from the almighty Allah to give us chance in our lives to see the expansion of Islamic State boundaries toward the SubContinent and Khurasan region in order to hoist the flag of Islamic State here.”[8]
There also arose reports in the press of Taliban split in the lawless tribal belt of Pakistan, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), where the constitution of Pakistan and its laws are inapplicable. Shamim Shahid, a journalist from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) is of the view that Pamphlets of IS are distributed in Peshawar and bordering Afghan provinces asking people for support. Moreover, it is also stated that some of the Taliban groups mainly Salafi have pledged allegiance to Baghdadi.[9] Wall chalking, cursing founder of the nation Muhammad Ali Jinnah and praising Baghdadi are seen in many cities of KPK, Jihadi accounts on social networking sites in Pakistan are flooded with the videos, messages and successes of IS in Syria and Iraq, in a bid to inspire the youth.
Is Islamic State a real threat for al-Qaida-Taliban nexus?
The split in Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the formation of a new group TTP, Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JUA), led by Molana Qasim Khorassani is interpreted by many security pundits as a shift in balance of power in FATA and that JuA pledged to Baghdadi. However, the group’s spokesman Ehsan-ullah-Ehsan refutes news of pledging allegiance to IS and issued a statement on August 27 on his twitter account.
“We announce that we have no connection to any such news. We consider ISIS and every other Mujahid group as our brothers, but we also consider it important to mention that we are in a pledge of allegiance to Ameer ul Mu’mineen Mullah Muhammad Umar Mujahid Hafizahullah” [10]
The Pakistani military launched a successful military operation “Zarb-e-Azb” in North Waziristan agency killing more than 910 and capturing some 114 hardcore terrorists, whereas, 82 soldiers of the army got killed since the start of operation.[11] This made TTP on the run to adjoining tribal areas, some fighters are believed to be escaped with Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), and some crossed the border to Afghanistan. The physical command and control structure of TTP in Waziristan has been disrupted, dismantled and destroyed with their leader Fazlullah’s absence from the scene and reported hiding in Afghanistan’s Nuristan province. The new group also claimed that because Fazlullah’s vision is limited only to tribal belt and he is also not able to lead the TTP from front after the army has started military operation.
Mullah Muhammad Omer holds a focal position here. He is called Ameer-ul-Momineen (leader of the faithful). And he heads a de-facto “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” So; the Taliban point of view is very clear “Emirate already exists”. Al-Qaeda itself was and continues to be subordinate to Mullah Omar, leader of the Taliban, through a loyalty oath from bin laden to Mullah Omar, which was reaffirmed last year by al-Qaida current leader, Ayman al Zawahiri.[12] And again Zawahiri has reiterated about his allegiance to Mullah Omar on September 3 this year.
The Jihadist arena described as AF-PAK in the west or Khorasan in Jihadist circle is under Mullah Omar’s influence predominantly. This makes al-Qaeda and its affiliates in this region like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), TTP and all its splinters practically under the influence, command and Bay ’a (pledge) of Mullah Omer.
In Baghdadis aspiration to become a global Jihad superpower he would try for reaching Jihadist groups to receive pledge in this region as evident in the pledge of Khorassan where nine members from the al-Qaeda defected and joined IS,[13] however, none among those defected had key positions. IS, principally is a Middle Eastern and western problem does not pose a potential threat to Mullah Umar’s Emirate. Following the course of events and deteriorating political and security condition of Middle East have enabled them gain lime light and sufficient grounds both in Iraq and Syria where government writ is only limited to their palaces.
Meanwhile, IS poses a serious threat to west so many western Jihadists in its ranks who don’t need visa to enter western countries. Furthermore, even the western powers could not accumulate and disseminate in a calculated manner the strategy to counter terrorism at a global level. Their containment policy succeeded against former Soviet Union by using religion but it backfired decades later challenging their own liberal democracy, and indeed, the freedom of religion, expression and thought in the western society has enabled terrorists to achieve those ends. And the support for ideology to inculcate Jihadi thought in 80s, after which a lot of Islamic centers were established in US, UK, and whole of the Europe. They are having the taste of their own medicine. It is alleged, though no evidence, that there are US hands in the creation of IS to create disharmony among Global Jihad leaders.
However, Pakistan has altogether different geo-strategic issues. Al-Qaeda core and Taliban here are fighting US and its allies and the toughest of militaries in the Muslim world, the Pakistan Army for more than a decade now. Furthermore, the experience both Al-Qaeda and Taliban leadership have gained from engaging with world two superpowers firstly Former Soviet Union in 80s and now United States in combat have made them more sound in their policy and strategic doctrine rather than newly IS.
Notwithstanding, in a recent development al-Qaeda head Ayman-al-Zawahiri announced the formation of new affiliate Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent on September 3. The Washington Post reports, “Zawahiri designated Umar Asim, a militant with ties to the Pakistani Taliban, as the new al-Qaeda branch’s head. Al-Qaeda’s desire for operational expansion eastward makes sense: There are roughly as many Muslims in South Asia as there are in the Arab world; there are more Muslims outside the Middle East than inside it.”[14] This step by Zawahiri shows the strategic and operational vision he has to not lose al-Qaeda as a Global Jihad super power. Moreover, his clandestine and introvert approach has kept him safe and still alive from US drone campaign, whereas, Baghdadi taking war too much open with having less strategic skills is only undermining the enemy which is much greater, the US.
Pakistan’s security analyst Imtiaz Gul believes, “The Zawahiri move represents a big strategic advantage for Pakistan which is being treated harshly by India after Narendra Modi’s rise to power. Pakistan feels marginalized in view of tough messages out of India – chiding of Pakistan army, cancellation of foreign secretary talks and cancellation of Made in Pakistan expo that was set to begin on Aug 31 in Mumbai – all ominous signs for an India regime that is ratcheting up tough stance on Pakistan”.
It’s a new threat to India. Their core of operations centered in India is like Al-Qaeda South Asia Bureau in India – the way most INGOs and international media organizations used to set up their South Asia bureaus in New Delhi before 9/11, he further adds.
Conclusion
The change dynamics of war in Iraq and Syria have limited their geo-political and geo-strategic vision. Hypothetically, air strikes, US led offensive against IS, resulting in elimination of Baghdadi will again make al-Qaeda to look for by remaining IS fighters. Al-Qaeda already holds a command at global level through their affiliates i.e. al-Qaida in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), al-Qaida in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) mainly north Africa, As-Shabab, its affiliate in Somalia, East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) in China, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) a central Asian organization. IS, is a Middle Eastern and Western headache. Pakistan still has al-Qaeda connection and likely to remain so in the coming years.
Written by CRSS Research Fellow Abbas Ahmad, The writer is a Research fellow at Center for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad.
[1] Terry Atlas and Indira A.R. Lakshmana, “ Islamic State Challenging Al-Qaeda for Leadership, Bloomberg News, August 15, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/islamic-state-said-to-challenge-al-qaeda-for-leadership.html (accessed September 2, 2014)
[2] ibid
[3] ibid
[4] Kenneth Roth, Twitter, September 03, 2014, https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/506939280154185728, (accessed September 03, 2014)
[5] Lee Ferran, “Britain Raises Terror Threat Level to ‘Severe’,” ABC News, August 29, 2014, http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/britain-raises-terror-threat-level-severe/story?id=25174939, (accessed September 2, 2014)
[6] Lori Plotkin Boghardt, “Qatar and ISIS Funding: The U.S. Approach, “ The Washington Institute Improving the Quality of U.S. Middle East Policy, August, 2014, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/qatar-and-isis-funding-the-u.s.-approach#.VAYSXaVJZwM.twitter (accessed September 01, 2014)
[7] Ibid
[8] Rob Crilly and Saleem Mehsud, “Pakistani terror group swears allegiance to Islamic State, The Telegraph, July 9, 2014, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/10955563/Pakistani-terror-group-swears-allegiance-to-Islamic-State.html (accessed September 2, 2014)
[9] Shamim Shahid, “Spillover effect: ISIS making inroads into Pakistan, Afghanistan, The Express Tribune, September 3, 2014, http://tribune.com.pk/story/757186/spillover-effect-isis-making-inroads-into-pakistan-afghanistan/ (accessed September 3, 2014)
[10] Ehsanullah Ehsan, “Explanation, Twitter, August 27, 2014, https://twitter.com/Ehsanullahihsan (accessed September 1, 2014)
[11] “Inter Services Public Relations,” Press Release, September 3, 2014, https://www.ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o=t-press_release&id=2638#pr_link2638 (accessed September 3, 2014)
[12] J. M Berger, “The Islamic State vs. al Qaeda; who’s winning the war to become the jihadi superpower,” Foreign Policy, September 2, 2014, https://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/02/Islamic_state_vs_al_qaeda_next_jihadi_super_power?utm_content=bufferee (accessed September 3, 2014)
[13] Abu Al Bawi, “9 Al-Qaeda Leader In Khorasan Pledge Allegiance To ISIS,” Abu AL Bawi Toward The Khilafah Led By Islamic State, http://abualbawi.blogspot.com/2014/04/9-al-qaeda-leader-in-khorasan-pledge-allegiance-to-isis.html (accessed September 1, 2014)
[14] Ishaan Tharoor, “Why al-Qaeda is opening a new wing in South Asia, The Washington Post, September 3, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/09/03/why-al-qaeda-is-opening-a-new-wing-in-south-asia/ (accessed September 3, 2014)