A recent surge of tens of thousands of Afghan families returning from Pakistan, spurred by increasing incidents of detention, forced evictions, police raids and harassment, signals a possible humanitarian crisis for Afghanistan in the coming months. Since the beginning of the year, IOM and UNHCR recorded 182,669 undocumented Afghans and deportees and 207,236 refugees returning to Afghanistan from Pakistan.

However, these numbers have dramatically accelerated since mid-July. For example,in the period 1-8 October,more than 50,000 refugee and undocumented returneeswere recorded, suggestingthe current totals could be just the tip of the iceberg. Many families returning were forced to leave quickly, with little time to properly sell assets, and are often arriving with few possessions. Combined with the fact that many have lived in Pakistan for decades, and have few, if any, family connections left in Afghanistan, a large number need humanitarian assistance.

These returns join an ever-growing number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Afghanistan, with more than 286,381 Afghans forced to flee their homes due to conflict in 2016 alone. When added to the large volume of returns from Pakistan, OCHA projects that by the year-end, over one million people will be “on the move” inside Afghanistan and across borders.

These numbers far exceed projections for this year – and therefore outstrip the current resources of the humanitarian community to meet the increased needs. With winter fast approaching, and many returnee families indicating they intend to return to urban centres, such Kabul and Jalalabad, that already struggle to deliver basic services, acute humanitarian emergency needs are a real possibility. Nevertheless, we can still avert a crisis. On 7 September, the humanitarian community launched a Flash Appeal for US$152 million to address the acute humanitarian needs of the unanticipated number of people “on the move” in Afghanistan until the end of 2016,

outlining seven areas we can address the most immediate and urgent needs:

1. Provide tents for families with no place to go, and support families being hosted or renting. Shelter provides families the first step to a safe and healthy environment, helps protect food stocks, and is a platform to recover and rebuild a future.
2. Save lives through food assistance. Most returnee families have less than a week’s worth of food stocks, and food assistance, in addition to protecting livestock and assisting with basic agriculture will save lives, enhance income and reduce further migration.
3. Strengthen existing health systems. Without support, an increase in communicable and non-communicable diseases is a strong possibility. Maternal, newborn and child health services and trauma care services are already stretched, and are now facing an increase in demand.
4. Scale-up nutrition coverage and provide life-saving treatment to newborns and children with acute malnutrition. An additional 20,000 additional children and 2,500 pregnant and lactating women are expected to need treatment.
5. Ensure individuals are adequately protected, particularly female-headed households and children. Lack of protection can lead to negative coping mechanisms, such as child labour, early marriage and child recruitment. This should include community-based assistance with civil documentation, temporary learning spaces, GBV prevention, mine/ERW risk education, surveillance and clearance.
6. Provide essential water, sanitation and hygiene to ensure the health, wellbeing and dignity of the most vulnerable returnees, and avoid outbreaks of diarrhoea, typhoid, polio and other water-borne and contagious diseases.
7. Ensure a dignified and efficient reception of returnees, including registration, profiling,support at the border as well as the provision of immediate assistance for the mostvulnerable.Bilateral donors, including the United Kingdom, United States, Japan, Sweden,Germany, Denmark, Norway, the Czech Republic and Switzerland have so farcommitted US$58.6 million to the Flash Appeal, or around 36 per cent. For moreinformation on the flash appeal, visit http://www.unocha.org/afghanistan.

IOM Afghanistan contributed the following article

Undocumented Afghan families make the hard ‘choice’ to come home

Afghanistan’s Torkham bordercrossing with Pakistan is thecountry’s busiest. Set between imposing mountains on either side, the bustling highway is an economic lifeline for a country that continues to struggle with a violent insurgency.From Pakistan a slow parade ofmen, women and children are reluctantly returning home. Some to a country they barely know after decades spent in an exile that for some began in 1979 with the Soviet invasion. Undocumented Afghan returnees, as many as 1.5 million of whom reside in the border regions of Pakistan, are those persons who do not hold identity documents from Afghanistan or Pakistan. They are increasingly coming under pressure from local authorities to return home leaving them little choice but to take the tortuous decision to exit their adopted country.

From January to June 2016, only 33,000 undocumented Afghans returned from Pakistanbut in July alone a further 29,000 people crossed the border. In August, this numberrocketed to nearly 70,000. Numbers in September were lower due to the Eid religiousholidays but have since risen to about 11,000 per week. 15 November marks the deadlineset by the Pakistani government for all undocumented Afghans to acquire a passport and valid visa.

IOM Afghanistan is projecting that as many as 400,000 returnees may come back by 31December 2016. Many are coming with next to no possessions after travel made in haste.Others have managed to demolish their homes and pack rented trucks with buildingsupplies, livestock, food and personal possessions.Chenoor Gul, 75 (pictured) has a whitebeard, a tanned face and impressivehands that speak volumes about a lifethat has been hard fought. Fleeing hishome in the late 1970s, Chenoor builta life in Pakistan.Working as a dailylabourer to support his three sons, wifeand new grandchild, he made thedifficult decision to leave after a seriesof night-time raids by police forcesconvinced him it wasn’t safe to stayany longer.

“I have nothing in Afghanistan- no land, no family- I am a stranger here but I will do mybest to start a new life for my family.” His exhaustion frequently bubbles to the surface. An IOM staff member extends a comforting hand in reassurance and directs Chenoor to the Department of Refugees and Repatriation’s registration office where his personal information is collected.

Based on his advanced age and his wife’s medical condition, IOM will provide a postarrival assistance package. The IOM Transit Centre provides undocumented returnees with a medical check-up including TB screening and vaccinations, a hot meal, there are limited overnight accommodation facilities, and a package of non-food items plus a onemonth food ration from the World Food Programme.

IOM assists 100-120 families a day or roughly 20% of the daily influx. On 16 September, IOM launched an appeal to the international community for USD 21 million to scale up its staff presence on the border with improved services for over 136,000 of the most vulnerable returnees by year-end.

The Afghan government has actively encouraged the undocumented to return to Afghanistan with promises of land allocations in spite of ongoing conflict, lack of jobs and the inflationary impacts the surge in returnees is already having on local rent and commodity prices.

At the Transit Centre, Chenoor provides detailed information to an IOM staff member. He is given a beneficiary card and proceeds to bring his family inside where they collect their food rations and household items. They face a daunting journey ahead.

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Disclaimer: Views expressed in the article are not necessarily supported by CRSS.