Current Projects
US is Watching our Nuclear Arsenal, and it hasn’t gotten Over Safe Havens
Make no mistake; “safe havens” and (Pakistani) “nuclear weapons and materials” remain the preoccupation of the US administration, and it will continue to exert “pressure of all sorts” to bend Pakistan into compliance to President Trump’s South Asia Strategy. “We can no longer be silent about the fact that some externally focused terrorist groups enjoy safe haven in Pakistan’s territory,” Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary Henry Ensher said in the keynote speech he delivered at a recent Pakistan-focused conference, jointly organised by the Woodrow Wilson Center and Indus. Delivered before a largely Pakistani-American audience plus a number of American South Asia watchers, the blunt, though not entirely unexpected, speech in fact brought out the real contours of President Trump’s Pakistan policy. And surprisingly, it also spelt out Washington’s two “highest priorities” in Pakistan and throughout the region: a) concerns about continued existence of safe havens that enable terrorists to carry out attacks that threaten regional and global security, and b) need to prevent nuclear weapons and materials from coming into the hands of terrorists. Ensher shocked many among the audience with this crudely direct identification of the priorities vis-a-vis Pakistan, as well as the to-do-list on Pakistan – a display of the typical carrot-and-stick approach. The entire speech in fact was actually loaded with concerns, demands and expectations from Pakistan. His salient points were: i) Efforts to bring stability to Afghanistan is our primary and major area of policy divergence with Pakistan at this moment. No partnership can survive such a disconnect. As long as that continues, it will continue to colour and take centre stage in the bilateral relationship. ii) Even as we have broadened our regional diplomacy, there remains a special role for Pakistan … we have sharpened our approach to Pakistan with an eye to improving mutually favorable outcomes. iii) Pakistan can address...
Ulasi Taroon Showcase: Youth as Harbinger of Change
The 31st radio program as part of the Center for Research and Security Studies’ (CRSS) counter-radicalization initiative Ulasi Taroon (Social Cohesion) was aired on August 17, 2018, on the topic of “Youth as Harbinger of Change”. The first guest on show, Mr. Usman, a youth activist, lamented that the core constitutional values – critical to social cohesion and peaceful coexistence – are not included in the educational curricula. He underscored that the educational institutions must educate the students on democratic tenets and citizens’ basic rights and responsibilities to develop a responsible future leadership. The religious leaders from all the faiths can also play a very crucial role to sensitize the youth leaders on their peacebuilding roles for a socially cohesive society. Social media is one of the most powerful tools of the contemporary times which has both uses and abuses. However, the youth, the major user of this critical tool can decide to either use it negatively that can lead to disintegration, intolerance and extremism or opt to harness its potential to disseminate positive messaging and tolerance perspectives for social peace and cohesion. Mr. Usman said that Pakistan will be the country with the largest youth population in the whole world in coming years. At present, the youth in Pakistan comprises over 60 percent of the total population. The situation presents itself as a great opportunity to foster development and positive change in the country through harnessing the future leaders and helping them channelize their potential into the national socio-political life. The second guest on the show, Ms. Maha was of the opinion that our youth can go places and make a great impact for social cohesion and peacebuilding if provided with the platforms like Ulasi Taroon Youth Capacity Building Workshops offered by CRSS. Such initiatives are important to equip them with the skills needed to articulate themselves and effectively participate in the decision...
Pakistan’s Public Denunciation And Media Trial Vis-À-Vis Afghanistan Must Stop – Imtiaz Gul At Woodrow Wilson Symposium
CRSS Executive Director Mr Imtiaz Gul, while speaking at the Pathways to Change: Pakistan Policy Symposium at Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, has said that the talk on Afghan peace should move beyond ‘support for terrorists, terror sanctuaries and do more mantra’ when it comes to Pakistan and its role in Afghan peace. While speaking at the symposium’s Afghan panel, Mr Gul further said that Pakistan should be granted the same geo-political considerations as others in the region. He further asserted that the Afghan nation is hopeful that dialogue and direct Afghan-American negotiations will resolve the Afghan quandary and end the war birthed by occupation. Find the full speech below: “Let us contextualise the current scenario. From a Pakistani perspective, the pendulum in the triangular US-Afghan-Pakistan relations seems to have moved from negativity to the willingness to seek joint solutions. The US-led narrative has earlier been negative all through. President Trump spiced it up further through his intimidating South Asia Strategy, only to start backpedalling with the appointment of Zalmay Khalilzad as a special envoy for peace and reconciliation. This also underscores a deviation from kinetic approach by the US to the search for a political settlement – a goal common to both Pakistan and the US itself. Why? Because the 14 months since Trump’s South Asia strategy have been the bloodiest compared to the corresponding period in previous years, with 39 percent increase in violence between January and September 2018. UNAMA documented 8,050 civilian casualties (2,798 deaths and 5,252 injured). Let us first focus on key messages from three of the major stakeholders: Message from Zalmay Khalilzad, Special Envoy for Peace and Reconciliation in Afghanistan: “Bring authoritative Taliban delegation to the table. We want a negotiated way out of the conflict”. The Taliban welcomed the direct talks because they see their viewpoint strengthened i.e engaging with the Afghan...
Q3 Security Report – 2018
Executive Summary The third quarter of 2018 was very volatile for Pakistan, owing to a wide array of factors. After a long trend of steadily declining militancy and attacks, and despite an unprecedented deployment of security forces during election campaign, the militants targeted several political parties and candidates that they were in disagreement with. Surprisingly, the upsurge in militancy in Pakistan also remained confined to Balochistan and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP) regions reflecting its links to the Afghan based militants. The regional challenges pose a serious threat to the security situation in Pakistan. This will remain a serious concern for the security agencies and the analysts. Readers can approach CRSS for information related to this report. Alternately, you may send your queries to mail@crss.pk, directly to Mohammad Nafees, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS – the author of the report (mohammad.nafees@yahoo.com), or Zeeshan Salahuddin, Senior Research Fellow, the editor. Acronyms Casualties from Violence in Pakistan The casualties of violence in Q3, 2018 took a turn for the worse at 964 (397 dead, 567 wounded) up from 521 in the previous quarter. More than 50% of these casualties were recorded in Balochistan alone, followed by KP, Sindh, FATA, and Punjab (table 01). While GB, Balochistan and KP regions witnessed a significant rise in violence, all other regions of the country recorded a considerable decline in violence, especially Punjab and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) (table 02). Monthly data shows July (election month) as the most violent month. In the next two months the security situation reversed and the violence receded considerably (table 03). The epicenter of violence shifted this quarter from the capital cities of the country to other places. Lahore, the capital of Punjab, had zero report of violence while Karachi and Quetta showed significant decline. Peshawar was the only provincial capital where occurrences of violence...
Deciphering CPEC’s ‘Debt-Trap’ Myth
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the new buzz word for the international media and power corridors nowadays. CPEC, once again, has come under vicious attacks, apparently after recent tug of war between China and the United States. The strategy to malign the project has become part of a greater hybrid warfare for dominance in global political landscape. CPEC, seen as a window of opportunity for Pakistan, has become a source of discomfort for some regional players who are not comfortable with the scale of the project, and therefore have started propagating conspiracies against it. One of the biggest recent conspiracies regarding CPEC is related to Chinese loans and its repayment by Pakistan. The scoffers of CPEC are apparently off the beam when they pronounce that Pakistan would not be able to service the loans and repatriate the profits to Chinese investors, due to diminishing exports and exhausting foreign reserves. According to some analysts, the country would be trapped in grim debt obligations to China which would allow the latter to take the steering wheel of the Pakistan’s assets including the deep sea port of Gwadar – CPEC’s pivot. An unbiased and dispassionate analysis would divulge that the nitty-gritty of all these apparent problems lies in the energy crisis that led the Pakistani exports to recede gradually over time. Export orders could not be fulfilled as the exporters did not have dependable and consistent power and gas supply. Had the energy limitation been absent, a growth rate of around 10 percent per annum would have been attained in the (last) few years’ time (as evident by growing exports in 2018 as the energy crisis eased up). In that regard, Pakistan’s exports would have touched USD 36 billion in fiscal year 2018 if all variables remained constant. Current account deficit with the unchanged volume of imports would have been lower by at least USD 15 billion and the need for short term commercial borrowing would not have arisen....
Letter from Islamabad: From Past To Present To Past Again
One of Afghanistan’s most intrepid and long-term observers in the region is Canadian journalist Kathy Gannon of the Associated Press. In April, 2014, she was severely injured in an attack against her vehicle while covering the war with Geneva-based AP Pulitzer prize winning photographer, Anja Niedringhaus, who was mortally wounded. Here Gannon shares her thoughts on covering this never-ending war from her base in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. Focus on Afghanistan: 40 years of war. This article is part of Global Geneva’s special series exploring 40 years of war in Afghanistan. It is scheduled to be published in our November 2018-January 2019 print & e-edition. It’s been more than 30 years since I first came to Afghanistan. Then, like now, Afghanistan was at war. The Soviets were the invaders then, and the mujahideen, or Islamic holy warriors, were backed by the United States and heralded as freedom fighters by U.S. President Ronald Reagan. At the time, the University of Nebraska had devised a curriculum to teach Afghan refugee children in camps in northwest Pakistan the English-language alphabet. It went like this: ‘I’ is for Infidel, ‘J’ is for jihad and ‘K’ is for Kalashnikov — all terms used in the battle to fight the godless communists, who had invaded their homeland. Mathematics was little different. It was taught with problem-solving questions such as: If you have 20 communists and you kill 12 Communists, how many Communists do you have left? That was then. Mujahideen during the 1980s. Shomali region. Many former guerrillas became Taliban. (Photo: Edward Girardet)The mujahideen of the 1980s are today both friend and foe Today the United States and NATO are often referred to as invaders. Those same mujahideen of the 1980s are today both friend and foe. Some are now Taliban, the enemy, and some are mujahideen-cum-warlords-cum-politicians, supposedly friends, who either influence or are members of the present-day U.S.-supported government in Kabul....
Ulasi Taroon Showcase: Importance of Accountability for Good Governance and Inclusive Democracy
The 30th radio program as part of the Center for Research and Security Studies’ (CRSS) counter-radicalization initiative Ulasi Taroon (Social Cohesion) was aired on August 10, 2018, on the topic of “Importance of Accountability for Good Governance and Inclusive Democracy”. The guest on the show, Mr. Arbab Farooq, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) representative, stressed that accountability is one of the most important pillars in the structure of democratic governance. He noted that it is the fundamentally essential ideal to prevent the misuse of authority and uphold rule of law. Accountability of public representatives before law and general public is the beauty of democracy and it ensures an egalitarian and cohesive society. Across the board accountability is at the core of every developed country’s success story where everyone is accountable and subject to law and even those at helm are not allowed to misuse their powers whatsoever. The guest on phone, Mr. Zarak Shah, an advocate by profession, emphasized that media has played a remarkable role over the last 15 years in sensitizing the general public and creating awareness among them on the importance of indiscriminate accountability as a core democratic tenet to ensure good governance. People were ignorant but now they are more aware of their rights and responsibilities and can hold the public representatives accountable for their service delivery. Nevertheless, there should also be a check on media so that it does not exceed its limits and convey the right and truthful information to the public. About Ulasi Taroon Ulasi Taroon is a counter radicalization initiative of Center for Research and Security Studies that aims to address the radicalization challenges, extremist ideologies and foster social cohesion through a discourse anchored in the core constitutional values which are fundamentally essential prerequisites for social peace and harmony. The endeavor aims to cultivate and sensitize the people of KP in the...
Ulasi Taroon Showcase: Merger of FATA, a Step Towards Inclusion
The 29th radio program as part of the Center for Research and Security Studies’ (CRSS) counter-radicalization initiative Ulasi Taroon (Social Cohesion) was aired on August 03, 2018, on the topic of “Merger of FATA, a Step Towards Inclusion”. The programme was primarily focused on the report “FATA Tribes: Finally Out of Colonial Clutches? Past, Present and Future”, launched by the CRSS as part of its special publication series. It is the first report of its kind which provides an introduction to the history, culture, traditions and demographics of the ethnic Pashtun tribes inhabiting the north-western border regions of Pakistan. The focus of this report is on the tribes, sub-tribes and notable families residing in the seven administrative units that make up FATA. It also looks at the various traditional conflict mitigation and resolution mechanisms that these tribes have practiced for centuries where an overview of economic, demographic, and geopolitical dimensions of FATA is also provided. The guest on phone, Mr. Imtiaz Gul, Executive Director, CRSS, noted that the recent publication by CRSS was initiated to bridge the gaps between the people residing in FATA and the other parts of the country as it had been - for long - presented as a no-go area and a nursery for extremist activities. The state must make efforts to uphold rule of law in the tribal areas and introduce alternate dispute resolutions mechanisms like the ones deployed in the other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - such as Dispute Resolution Councils, besides modifying the existing conflict resolution mechanisms in the region. “The first and most important step towards inclusion of the ex-FATA in the political stream is to hold local bodies’ elections in these areas to speed up the development activities,” said Mr. Iftikhar Firdous, Bureau Chief, Express Tribune, Peshawar. The policy planning for the development of FATA ought to take into consideration the local culture, traditions, values and...
Demystifying CPEC Loans & Repayments
The Planning Commission of Pakistan, in its latest statement, has dismissed myths surrounding Pakistan’s CPEC-related debts and repayments while apparently also addressing the uncertainty factor, currently prevailing in the economy According to the statement, outflows under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will begin in 2021 and peak over the next three years without creating a debt trap. Starting in 2021, these repayments will about $300-400 million annually and gradually peak to about $3.5 billion by fiscal year 2024-25, before tapering off with total repayments to be completed in 25 years. The statement categorically dismissed the fears surrounding the loans and repayments, stating that “CPEC is not imposing any immediate burden with respect to loans repayment and energy sector outflows”, arguing all debt related outflows will be outweighed by the resultant benefits of the investments to the Pakistan economy. The Commission reiterated that CPEC was a “flagship” project and most active project of Belt and Road Initiative where 22 projects worth a total of $28 billion have been actualized over the past four years. “The project could not be compared with Chinese overseas investment in Sri Lanka or Malaysia as frameworks and financial modes of CPEC are altogether different in nature” the statement continued. CPEC finances are divided in government to government loans, investment and grants. Infrastructure sector is being developed through interest free or government concessional loans. Gwadar Port is grant-based investment which means the Government of Pakistan does not have to pay back the invested amount for the development of the port. Energy projects are being executed under Independent Power Producers (IPPs) mode and finances are mainly taken by the private companies from China Development Bank and China Exim Bank against their own balance sheets, therefore, any debt would be borne by the Chinese investors instead of any obligation on part of the...
Ulasi Taroon Showcase: Role of Youth for Equality and Social Cohesion
The 28th radio program as part of the Center for Research and Security Studies’ (CRSS) counter-radicalization initiative Ulasi Taroon (Social Cohesion) was aired on July 27, 2018, on the topic of “Role of Youth for Equality and Social Cohesion”. The radio show kicked with the recorded remarks of Mr. Noor Jamal, Superintendent of Police (SP) Operations, Chitral, expressed during the 8th round of Ulasi Taroon Youth Capacity Building Workshops held at University of Chirtal. He said that rule of law means equality - i.e. every individual in the society is important - and indiscriminate application of law; equally applicable and accessible on and to everyone regardless of their background. Rule of law is conducive to peace, socio-political and economic progress, democratic development, employment opportunities, foreign investment, equality and across the board accountability. The linkages between the public and police are extremely crucial to counter-extremism and foster rule of law. The youth must be educated on their rights and responsibilities enshrined in the constitution to uphold rule of law, besides, the media should also create awareness among the masses on the criticality of adherence to rule of law. The in-studio guest, Mr. Waheed Ullah, a youth activist said that the tenets of equal citizenry are clearly enshrined in the constitution of Pakistan especially articles 8-28. As citizens especially the young population, we must all be aware of these constitutional protections critical to our peaceful coexistence. All these core constitutional values clearly state that every individual is an equal citizen irrespective of gender, color, cast, creed, socio-economic or political background. The youth can play a great role in positively engaging with the communities - through volunteerism - on values critical to social cohesion and peaceful coexistence. The second guest on show, Ms. Mashaal Zia, a professional career consultant, noted that the youth is very capable...
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.