Since start of operation Zarb-e-Azb in erstwhile North Waziristan Agency in 2014 and subsequent targetted operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (RuF) in settled areas of the country, militancy and terrorism are on a continuous decline with 2018 being generally more peaceful as compared to 2017. According to a report of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), except for July 2018, the numbers of fatalities due to terrorism in each month of 2018 were significantly lower than the figure for the same months of the previous year. “All forms of violence and counter-violence witnessed a significant decline in the number of fatalities this year [2018],” the report said, adding that the drop in fatalities from suicide attacks was marginal in 2018 which remained the biggest source of casualties in the country. The report read that Balochistan witnessed the most number of fatalities (407), followed by former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata), 208, Khyber Pakhtunkwa (K-P) 161 and Sindh (192). As compared to 2,333 fatalities in 2018, the total number of deaths due to militancy was recorded to be 1,131. This figure is 45% less than the figure 2017.  The greatest decline in such incidents was observed in Punjab, where fatalities dropped by 69%, followed by Sindh (57.8%), K-P(16%) and Fata (52.3%). According to a report of the National Counter Terrorism Authority (Nacta), some 65 terror incidents took place in 2001 followed by 49 in 2002, 50 in 2003, 146 in 2004, 240 in 2005, 1,456 in 2006, 1,820 in 2007, 1,575 in 2008, 1,938 in 2009 and the highest number of terror incident (2,061) took place in 2010. The report said 1,680 terror incidents took place in 2011, 1,316 in 2012, 1,571 in 2013, 1,816 in 2014, 1,139 in 2015, 785 in 2016 and some 489 terrorism incidents were reported in 2017. Terror attacks gradually dropped down after 2014, the year when Operation Zarb-e-Azb was launched and a national action plan was devised to counter militancy in the country. “Although...

Pakistan saw an overall decline in the number of casualties from violence-related incidents in 2018[1], continuing a trend from 2015, reports the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Balochistan had the most number of fatalities at 407, followed by FATA (208) and Sindh (192). Of the 2,333 casualties in 2018, 1,131 were fatalities, down 45% from 2047 the prior year (table and graph below). The biggest decline was observed in Punjab, where fatalities dropped by nearly 69% (469 to 146), followed by Sindh (57.8%), and FATA (52.3%). During all months in 2018 (except July), the number of fatalities was significantly lower than the same month from the previous year. All forms of violence and counter-violence witnessed a significant decline in the number of fatalities this year. The drop in fatalities from suicide attacks was marginal during this year and it remained the biggest source of casualties in the country. Civilians accounted for 53% of the total fatalities for this year compared to 47% last year. Government and security officials saw a small decline, but an increase in the percentage of casualties. The largest drop in both numbers and percentage was for militants, criminals and insurgents. [1] Please note that this data is until December 30, 2018, and may change slightly with the last day of 2018 is fully accounted for.

US President Trump, in a surprising move, ordered the US military on, December 20, 2018, to initiate a road-map to withdraw about half the troops from Afghanistan. The plan, however, could take several months, especially because the President could face serious resistance from Pentagon. The US currently has about 14,000 troops in the war-torn country, most of which are present as part of a larger NATO-led mission to train, guide and assist the Afghan forces. It is pertinent to note that President Trump has long been critical of the US presence in Afghanistan, which began after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on –the World Trade Center. Whatever the case and however long this drawdown takes, these recent developments in Afghanistan suggest that the stalemate in the peace process, between the Taliban and the US administration, might finally be witnessing a breakthrough. This is because a full US withdrawal has remained one of the major demands of the Taliban, while negotiating peace with the US representative Zalmay Khalilzad. However, experts have echoed apprehensions over a hasty exit, which could create a vacuum in the country. In such a situation, many state and non-state actors would seek to fill this vacuum. This can eventually lead to another tug of war between different groups within Afghanistan and across the region. The decision of US withdrawal came after the Abu Dhabi moot, where a Taliban delegation met officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ahead of their meeting with Zalmay Khalilzad – who was appointed to oversee Washington’s peace effort in September. The crucial peace talks between the United States and Afghan Taliban in UAE on December 17, 2018, were arranged with the help of Pakistan. Pakistan’s facilitation and efforts were materialized in the backdrop of Donald Trump’s latest endeavor of writing to the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, asking support for Afghan War’s conclusive solution. These...

How countries develop overtime? How do nations move from the third world to first world? What stages are involved? One of the models to explain such transition of societies is “5 Stages of Growth”. Walt Rostow – an American economist and political theorist was the man behind this model. He explains the complete transition in five phases/stages. First is ‘traditional society’. This is an agricultural economy of mainly subsistence farming, little of which is traded. The size of the capital stock is limited and of low quality resulting in very low labor productivity and little surplus output left to sell in domestic and overseas markets. Second, ‘pre-conditions for take-off’; agriculture becomes more mechanized and more output is traded. Savings and investment grow although they are still a small percentage of national income (GDP). Some external funding is required - for example in the form of overseas aid or perhaps remittance incomes from migrant workers living overseas Third ‘take-off’; manufacturing industry assumes greater importance, although the number of industries remains small. Political and social institutions start to develop - external finance may still be required. Savings and investment grow. Agriculture assumes lesser importance in relative terms. There is often a dual economy apparent with rising productivity and wealth in manufacturing and other industries contrasted with stubbornly low productivity and real incomes in rural agriculture. Fourth, ‘drive to maturity’; industry becomes more diverse. Growth should spread to different parts of the country as the state of technology improves - the economy moves from being dependent on factor inputs for growth towards making better use of innovation to bring about increases in real per capita incomes. Fifth stage is called ‘age of mass consumption’; output levels grow, enabling increased consumer expenditure. There is a shift towards tertiary sector activity and the growth is sustained by the expansion of...

Pakistan and Afghanistan are placed in a geo-strategic lock that needs to be unlocked to move past previous grievances. Both countries have had a troubled past and the process of conflict resolution has remained slow. Pakistan has always advocated for a non-military solution to the troubles in Afghanistan. However, a lack of confidence between the two remains a setback. To move past this, Pakistan and Afghanistan must continue the process of dialogue, said independent analyst, Ms. Aisha Saeed, who was invited as the Chief Guest and Trainer at the 11th Pak-Afghan Youth Training Workshop at the Center for Research & Security Studies (CRSS) held on Monday, December 10, 2018. The theme of the workshop was “Conflict Resolution and Confidence Building”. Participants of the workshop included young Afghans and Pakistanis enrolled in undergraduate and graduate programmes at Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU), National Defense University (NDU), International Islamic University, Islamabad (IIUI), and National University of Modern Languages (NUML), in Islamabad. Ms. Aisha stated that continued engagement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, including Track II/1.5 diplomacy initiatives, such as Beyond Boundaries by Islamabad-based think tank the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). provide the opportunity to both civil society and government stakeholders for constructive discussion in an informal and comfortable environment, where representatives of both governments are more likely to agree on solutions that can build confidence and mutual trust, paving the way to move forward towards conflict resolution on ground. She further stressed on the importance of conflict resolution and confidence building in Pak-Afghan relations. Conflict resolution is an art of diplomacy and confidence building starts at the grass-root level between people, she added. Platforms such as youth dialogues and workshops provided by CRSS’ Afghan Studies Center are vital, where direct people to...

In the next 40 years, Pakistan and Afghanistan are expected to have 10% more water due to climate change and melting of glaciers than now. However, both countries will be faced with a grave challenge once these glaciers have exhausted, perhaps in the next 30 to 40 years, which calls for immediate attention of policy makers in both countries, stated water expert Mr. Ali Tauqeer Sheikh at Afghan Studies Center’s 18th Pak-Afghan Youth Dialogue in Islamabad on November 26, 2018. He was speaking on the theme, “Pak-Afghan Cooperation: Ensuring Sustainability in Water Resources.” Afghanistan is a landlocked country, albeit one that many rivers flow through. However, the war-torn country does not maintain any control over its rivers. The country’s lack of infrastructure to store water is at the core amongst many other factors perpetuating its socio-economic challenges, Mr. Sheikh explained. Many rivers in Afghanistan are seasonal and as a result, the water just flows to other countries, not allowing Afghanistan to utilize from its benefits, the CEO LEAD Pakistan said, while speaking to youth from Pakistan and Afghanistan belonging to Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Quetta, Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Peshawar. Further elaborating, he said that the Kabul River Basin, which is shared between Pakistan and Afghanistan, is a vital resource for both countries, particularly in terms of economic growth, energy security, food security and supply of water to its populations. It is also one of the most important transboundary rivers in the Asia region. However, diplomacy and dialogue between the countries is constrained by ongoing political challenges, making it difficult to share the benefits of the Kabul River waters. Water experts like him contend that in order to maximize growth in both countries, there is a need for integrated development with an approach of sharing of costs and benefits of the Kabul River Basin, as compared to the division of water and unilateral development. However,...

The outgoing Ambassador of Afghanistan Hazrat Omar Zakhilwal said on Monday that relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are indispensable adding during his tenure he tried his best to strengthen bilateral  ties. Afghanistan, Pakistan relationship cannot remain the way it is and no matter how many times we make attempts and those attempts fail, we need to continue till the time our attempts bear some fruit. The Afghan ambassador expressed these views while speaking on the occasion of a farewell luncheon hosted for him by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS).                                                                                                                                                                                        The outgoing ambassador, who is retiring from the government service, further said Pakistan indeed was a challenging job however he accepted to be the Afghan ambassador in Islamabad just to play his role to bring both countries closer. Ambassador Zakhilwal said his two and half years stint in Pakistan was not an easy job. It was ostensibly a tough call nevertheless he tried to deliver in the difficult circumstances. “I came to Pakistan with very ambitious agenda – the agenda of taking forward the bilateral relations. We are certainly way far from where we would like to be, but during my tenure I had a chance to study this relationship rather deeply and now I can say I have a deep understanding of Afghanistan, Pakistan relations”. He said during this period he at least thrice packed up his wherewithal to leave Pakistan and at one point in time he directly spoke with his President that he wanted to come back, but then he had a second thought and decided to brave the challenges and work for strengthening of bilateral relations. The ambassador said the bilateral trade is dropping down adding he put in his best efforts to improve bilateral trade. He said when he came to Pakistan, Afghan refugees were facing a number...