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The Dollar’s Strength is Weighing Down the World

The U.S. dollar's value is the strongest it has been in a generation devaluing currencies around the world and raising concerns about the future of the global economy by upending everything from the cost of international travel to the profitability of multinational companies. At a Glance: The diagram below shows how the U.S. dollar is demonstrating extraordinary strength against other global currencies this summer touching highs against the euro, the Japanese yen and others, with broad effects globally and within the United States. The chart illustrates the percentage change to July 15 from Dec. 31 of each country’s official currency versus the U.S. dollar When markets closed on 19th July in the U.S, it cost $1.02 to buy one euro, $1.20 to buy one British pound, and less than $0.01 to buy one yen. All are at or near historic lows against the dollar. The world economy is fueled by the dollar. Prior to the pandemic, it was responsible for $6 trillion in daily activity, which encompassed everything from tourists using their credit cards to companies making substantial international investments. About 90% of all transactions involving foreign exchange are made in this manner. However, as the world’s most important currency, the dollar often rises in times of turmoil, in part because investors consider it to be relatively safe and stable. Recently, it has been on a major surge against major global currencies as a result of inflation, high interest rates and deteriorating economic concerns.

ANNUAL SECURITY REPORT-2022

Casualties from Terror Attacks and Counter-Terror Operations Terrorist violence touched a new height in 2022. From 850 fatalities in 2021, the figure jumped to 980 in 2022 – indicating an over 15 percent rise in violence from as many as 512 terrorist incidents and counter-terror operations. The highest rise in violence was recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where fatalities went up from 399 in 2021 to 633 this year – a nearly 59% rise. Balochistan recorded a marginal increase of 1% in violence but it could not bring any relief to the region as it had the second-highest number of fatalities in the country. All other regions witnessed a drop in violence with Punjab, the largest province of the country, recorded a 61% drop in violence, followed by Sindh 50% down, and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) registered an 11% decline, while Gilgit Baltistan (GB) had no incident of violence this year (Table 01-A and Table 01-B). Both KP and Balochistan together suffered nearly 90 percent of all fatalities across the country, with the last month of the year i.e., December emerging as the deadliest for the security forces that lost at least 42 personnel in over two dozen attacks. Officials attributed the concentration of violence in KP and Balochistan to the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, where thousands of Pakistani militants and wanted terrorists – mostly linked to the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) - reportedly enjoy safe havens and the necessary support for planning acts of terror in Pakistan.  

CRSS Annual Security Report 2021

Introduction The Center for Research and Security Studies is pleased to release the Annual Security Report 2021. This report, compiled with the help of open-source data such as newspapers and web-based news portals, mirrors the trajectory of various forms of violence across Pakistan to help readers understand the dynamics of terrorist and extremist violence in the country , which suffered a renewed surge in violence in the latter part of 2021. Much of it was ostensibly linked to the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in mid-August 2021. They promised to deny terrorist groups such as TTP, IMU, ETIM , and ISIK the use of Afghan soil for their operations in Pakistan, Central Asia, China, and elsewhere in the region. Yet, terrorist violence spiked after August and continued to claim casualties into 2022, particularly among Pakistani security forces in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

CRSS Research 2022

Executive Summary As a long-trusted and tested political friend, China wields significant influence in, and a central position in Pakistan’s foreign relations. However, due to certain cultural barriers and fewer peopleto-people interactions, people on both sides know relatively little about one another. In an attempt to evaluate this information deficit, CRSS conducted research on common Pakistanis’ perceptions and understanding of China’s culture and history. These findings are part of the first report. Based on a survey of 300+ individuals, it was found that most of young and older people have a positive view of China and are keen on learning more about the neighboring country. However, many young individuals lack awareness of some of the key facts about China; for instance, about 26 % did not know that China has achieved major watersheds in its economic development in the past two decades. Some of the recommendations of the report are: A special curriculum on China should be included for higher secondary and lower academic levels, as most of the individuals with these backgrounds either have a neutral or illinformed perception of China; There should be independent cultural exchange programs between youth which can be beneficial in learning about Chinese culture, and vice versa; Collaboration among organizations especially think tanks and NGOs of both countries can be very advantageous. Collective research projects will help in knowledge exchange as well as capacity building of both sides while bringing academics and researchers together; Besides track 1, multi-level diplomatic efforts must be started such as track 2 and track 1.5,an area that CRSS has considerable expertise and experience in. The second report focuses on Pakistan’s dated, expensive, and time-consuming Public Procurement Regime. A sound public procurement regime ensures transparency, cost-effectiveness, and swiftness and can help public sector institutions make better financial decisions. This...

Security Report First Quarter -2022

Casualties from Violence in Pakistan During the first quarter of 2022, some 344 people lost their lives and 405 suffered injuries because of violence and counter violence incidents. About 90 % of these victims of violence were from two regions of the country: Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s border regions.  Sindh and the Punjab province experienced a very marginal number of casualties (Table 01). Fatalities from Violence by Region Since last year, violence has been on the rise. The first quarter of 2022 saw a 68% rise in violence in general. The KP province witnessed 173% surge in violence, followed by Balochistan (88%) and Sindh (5%).  Punjab was the only region registered a decline of 56% in violence (Table 02). Fatalities from Violence by Month After a slight decline in January, violent incidents recording a 104% rise in February and 153% in March (Table 03). This sign of a growing trend that can be attributed to the TTP’s new tactics and alliances with some Baloch separatist groups. In December last year, the TTP had refused to extend the ceasefire it had agreed with the government and weeks thereafter saw an unusual surge in violence.  Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid had also admitted that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had escalated its attacks in the country[1]. Fatalities from Violence by Districts Major incidents of violence took place in Peshawar, North Waziristan, Balochistan’s Kech, Quetta, Sibi, Tank, Nushki districts, and some districts of Karachi where double digit fatalities from violence were recorded. Except Karachi, all other districts are from KP and Balochistan (Table 04). Figure: Fatalities by Districts – Q4 2021 VS Q1 2022 Comparative Fatality Data on Violence/Counter-Violence A comparative review of violence and counter-violence revealed that at least 13 counter-violence operations by the security forces resulted in fatalities of 18 persons.  On the other hand, six terror attacks were thwarted with timely preemptive action by the...

Cultural Similarities Can Strengthen Pak- Afghan Regional Economic Connectivity

Being neighbors, Pakistan and Afghanistan do not only share a border but also have a common civilization, history, religion, and culture. People from both countries are connected through social values, norms, language, traditions, and religion. These commonalities can be used to benefit both the countries’ economies by promoting trade and tourism. CRSS spoke to cultural experts on both sides to get an insight into what cultural items could help in boosting trade on both sides. 

Medical Tourism: an Impetus for Pak-Afghan Economic Connectivity

Medical tourism is a fast-growing industry globally, especially in the South Asian region. Poor healthcare facilities and the unavailability of certain technologies and expertise in Afghanistan have created an income stream for neighboring countries as Afghans cross their borders for medical treatments. Pakistan has generally been the most popular destination of Afghan medical tourists, at times accounting for around 90 percent of treatment-seeking visits. https://youtu.be/BRxNlhCHHV0

Challenges and Risks Faced by Trade Transporters

Land and border trade is considered the most successful and inexpensive way of business among neighboring countries across the world. Traditionally, almost all of the trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan is being done through land routes using trucks and containers, supporting the livelihood of thousands. Impeding operational and bureaucratic challenges at the border crossing points continue to trouble the transporters. Though Pakistan has taken substantial steps to facilitate trade, it is essential to mitigate the challenges faced by transporters to materialize the maximum potential of trade between the two countries. https://youtu.be/bdw2TgnNDXY

Medical Tourism Vital to Pak-Afghan Regional Economic Connectivity

Medical tourism between Pakistan and Afghanistan has flourished in the last two decades and played a significant role in improving people-to-people and people-to-state connectivity between the two countries. However, in the last few years, the number of Afghan patients visiting Pakistan has reduced significantly. In addition to COVID-19 restrictions and the volatile security situation post regime change in Afghanistan, the problems faced by patients happen to be the leading cause for the decline in the industry. If the loopholes are taken care of, the increasing economic connectivity between both countries can lead to better bilateral ties. YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aa739ngNbjs

Dreams of Murder

HORRIFIC as it was, the cold-blooded murder of a seminary teacher in D.I. Khan by three of her students on allegations of blasphemy is yet another sign of the increasingly toxic social environment we live in. The incident was not the first of its kind, nor will it be the last unless the state decides to stop accepting, cajoling and using religiously inspired extremists for short-term political gains, and, instead, punishes them and their leaders for taking the law into their hands. What sets this incident apart from similar atrocities linked to blasphemy accusations, is its frighteningly surreal dimension. The three young girls aged 17, 21 and 24 — barely adults themselves — who allegedly murdered their teacher told the police that a religious personality had appeared in a dream to their 13-year-old relative to tell her that the teacher had committed blasphemy. It is a terrifying thought that the suspects had no qualms about going ahead with their deed — in fact, deeming it necessary. Further investigation will reveal the truth — was it a case of being brainwashed by the anti-blasphemy narrative or was there another reason? Sadly, others too have resorted to murder in similar situations. Both those accused of committing blasphemy, such as university student Mashal Khan and Sri Lanka factory manager Priyantha Kumara, and those defending the accused against such allegations, including Punjab governor Salmaan Taseer and lawyer Rashid Rehman, were killed. No doubt the killers were emboldened by the inaction of the state. Otherwise, blasphemy-related accusations would not reach such high numbers — 1,300 between 2011 and 2021, according to the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies. Meanwhile, in instances where the accused are acquitted of false charges, as in the case of Asiya Bibi, the extremist culture makes it very difficult to ensure their safety after their release. Blind extremism will keep on taking lives unless the authorities take radical...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar