2009 quick review: The year 2009 ended with the deadly suicide strike on the Muharram procession in Karachi. Regardless of who did it, the incident underscored that unscrupulous death merchants continued their demolition and destruction mission in Pakistan. The past 12 months marked another traumatic and violent period that left a gory trail of death and destruction, manifest in the roughly 80 suicide attacks and close to 500 bomb explosions and improvised explosive devices– detonations, largely in the Frontier and FATA regions. Until 2001, one must underscore, Pakistan had not experienced a single suicide strike but by end of 2009, Pakistan was seething under a wave of reckless suicide attacks never witnessed before. During the year 2007, it was a strike a week, in 2008 those numbers rose to at least 62 and in 2009 about 80 bombers either walked into or drove explosive-laden vehicles into crowded places such as mosques, markets or security installations to wreak havoc on human likes. This took the total number of suicide strikes since March 2002 to roughly 217. The civilian casualty figure for the last eight years or so also reached a staggering 25,000, which includes militants, police, military personnel and civilians. During the last six months of 2009 radical militants led by al Qaeda seemed to had put Pakistan on fire, unleashing a string of suicide attacks that wrought havoc from the northwestern regions to capital Islamabad/ Rawalpindi to northeastern town of Lahore. Bombings here…: During the year, terrorists surprised the security establishment with their new tactics i.e. commando-style attacks involving several attackers. On March 3rd a attack, first on the Sri Lankan cricket team and then on the Manawan Police Training Academy on the outskirts of Lahore on March 30th, the October 10 raid on GHQ, the Dec 4 similar surprise assault involving several terrorists on the Parade Lane Mosque in Rawalpindi bore the hallmarks of the Fidayeen Attacks that the...

Pakistan bled more than any other nation in the world: Until 2001, Pakistan had not experienced suicide strikes. By the end of 2009, Pakistan had witnessed such attacks as never before. In 2007, it was one suicide attack a week; 2008 saw more than 60 attacks and last year, some 80 bombers either walked or drove explosive-laden vehicles into often crowded places including mosques, markets and security installations to wreak death and destruction. Last year toll also took the total number of suicide strikes since March 2002 to almost 220. The civilian casualty figure for the last eight years has reached a staggering 25,000 that includes militants, police, military personnel and civilians ´ 8 times of what the loss was in September 11, 2001 attacks in New York before President Bush embarked on his War Against Terror. Between July 2008 and end-December 2009 alone, Pakistan is believed to have lost about 3,600 civilians and more than 1,300 security personnel in terror strikes. Soon after President Barack Obama unveiled his AfPak strategy on March 27, 2009, the battle between the US-led coalition forces, including those of Pakistan, and the radical militants led by Al Qaeda moved to new levels, unleashing a string of suicide attacks wreaking destruction in the northwest as well as in Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Lahore. Bad ending…: The death and destruction continued during the whole year of 2009 and it ended with an attack on an Ashura procession in Karachi killing more than 40 and injuring scores of others. As if the human damage were not enough, a violent wave of arson and pillage followed the blast, resulting in shops being gutted and a loss of billions of rupees. While controversy surrounds the mode of the attack ¶ reports indicate a remote-controlled device may have been used ¶ if the Ashura attack was indeed caused by a suicide bomber, it would be the 80th such attack in addition to some 500 bomb explosions and improvised explosive devices– (IEDs) detonations,...

Importance of Quetta: Quetta is closely situated to Kandahar, the birthplace of the Afghan Taliban movement, and to Zahedan, the Iranian border town. Its location makes Quetta one of the most important Southern cities of Pakistan with immense potential of trade, communications ´ and suspected cross border infiltrations. The strategically vital city also lies on the Bolan Pass route which was once the only gateway to and from South Asia and if developed properly, would still have much more importance than many other routes in region. Ever since the Taliban defeat in December 2001, Quetta has remained in focus for three reasons for: 1. its ethnic Pashtoon majority; 2. long time presence of at least 300,000 Afghan refugees, displaced due to the civil war in Afghanistan; 3. being the only big city on the Pak-Afghan and Pak-Iran border with a strong military presence. Most of the affluent ones continue to live in and around the city, occupying big settlements including the Pashtoonabad neighborhood, which is reportedly home to hundreds of influential Afghan families. Quetta, therefore, mostly wears the look of a Taliban city; black-turbaned, bearded Pasthoons stalking roads and markets in the traditional loose dress that all Pashtoons between Quetta and Kandahar wear. It makes them all look like members of the Taliban movement, something very striking particularly for maiden visitors or foreigners. What is Quetta Shura: One of the themes, recurring in the US civilian and military leaders, relates to the alleged presence of Afghan Taliban in the Pakistani southwestern Balochistan province that shares a 1,360 kilometer long border with Afghanistan. 'Quetta Shura' (QS) is the metaphor used to underscore that key Afghan Taliban leaders are using Quetta, the provincial capital, as their command and control headquarters for their militant activities inside Afghanistan. Pakistani authorities have been under pressure from the US for quite some time to dismantle Taliban...

The surge would not help Pakistan: The new US plan is not likely to produce results that might allow the US to begin a phased withdrawal by July 2011 because this brings with the prospect of more civilian casualties (already close to 50 percent Afghans say they have been directly or indirectly affected by the military-militant conflict). The pullout plan has already triggered a heated debate in Washington with Robert Gates, the defense secretary suggesting the timeline was open to review by December 2010. It would certainly be interesting to see whether the Obama plan works wonder on the civilian side ´ the promise of working with local leadership, governors and the civil society (if one exists in Afghanistan). But if viewed against this the American perceptions of Pakistan listed above, the implications of the US surge in Afghanistan for Pakistan are likely to be pretty serious. Holbrook had charted this journey to serious implications ´ the shifting of war theatre to Pakistan ´ in March, when Obama announced the controversial Af-Pak Strategy. Escalation in conflict in the border areas ´ ground offensive in eastern and southeastern Afghanistan plus increased aerial and drone strikes (for which Robert Gates had already secured additional funding) in Waziristan, will mostly likely result in more violence in mainland Pakistan, thereby also straining the US-NATO supply routes from Karachi to Torkham and to Chaman. This stretch would not only suck in additional Pakistani security forces but also add to the cost of cargo which will mount after all the 30,000 additional US soldiers arrive in Afghanistan. Apprehensions about Pakistan: If plugged together, a total of six perceptions form the basis of the broader American belief that Pakistan is the source of all trouble in Afghanistan: Safe havens in Pakistan fuel the Afghan insurgency (Waziristan) Al-qaeda and Taliban leadership is hiding in Pakistan (Quetta and FATA) Terror groups attacking India, Afghanistan and US-led...

Taliban pride falls in the feet of Pakistan Army: Before Pakistan Army flushed out the TTP terrorists from Sararogha by November 3, 2009, it had served as headquarter of the terrorist outfit Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the South Waziristan region. TTP had a firm grip on the area and used it as its training, logistical, planning and execution facility even after the death of its founder, Baitullah Mehsud, in a drone attack on August 5. Pakistan Army, in a spectacular action against the terrorists moved in a three pronged strategy and destroyed a larger part of all that had been helping Taliban to keep operating from the area. The scattered stones and debris in and around Sararogha, as many media personnel reported after visiting the area, hints at heavy fighting between the militants and Pakistan Army in which Army managed to killed nearly 300 Taliban terrorists and the troops finally took the town including a strategic hill near the small town called Point 1345. The fight for this point was fierce and bloody with terrorists suffering heavy casualties and were finally pushed out of the important town. 'It all started from here, the challenge to the state of Pakistan,' Brig. Muhammed Shafiq, the operations commander, told media during a recent visit. 'Sararogha had turned into a symbol of the TTP terror in the region but Pakistan Army has snatched it from terrorists– teeth,' he proudly said. TTP comprises of criminals, crooks and killers: A look-back into the events ´ based on interviews with people displaced through the fighting and latest operation as well as with journalists from the region ´ also explains that through a swift but systematic campaign, the militants, then led by Baitullah and now by successor Hakimullah Mehsud, pushed out the entire local civilian administration, eliminated suspected government 'collaborators' and practically declared this town as the headquarters of their state. When TTP seized this town in a surprise attack on a...

More American deaths: The October 4 daring Taliban attack on two American outposts in the Nuristan province, eastern Afghanistan that left eight Americans and several Afghans dead only underscored the gravity of the ground situation in that country. Jamaluddin Badar, the governor of Nuristan said the attackers also seized and kidnapped 11 Afghan police officers, including the district police chief from inside the US-led compounds. Interestingly, Governor Mr. Badar identified the attackers as Taliban fighters who he said had fled the military operations in Pakistan. It was the deadliest raid on an American installation since July 2008, when 200 insurgents stormed their small outpost in the village of Wana and killed nine American soldiers were killed in the same province, bringing the US soldiers toll to 226 so far. According to the 'icasualties.org' website about 384 foreign troops have died thus far in 2009, raising alarm in major NATO capitals on the future engagement in Afghanistan. More US troops wouldn–t come ´ soon: In view of the spiraling violence, US General Stanley McChrystal, who commands 100,000 US and NATO troops in Afghanistan, is asking for up to 40,000 extra troops, warning that the Taliban-led insurgency is becoming more potent and that the U.S. is in danger of losing the war unless more troops are sent to turn the tide against a formidable opponent. General James Jones, the president national security adviser, seemed to challenge that premise on Sunday. On the CNN program 'State of the Union,' he said he did not believe that Afghanistan was in 'imminent danger of falling' to the Taliban and that the presence of Al Qaeda 'is much diminished.' And on the CBS program 'Face the Nation,' he described General McChrystal recommendation for a troop increase as 'his opinion' of 'what he thinks his role within that strategy is.' These relatively divergent views in Washington also form the basis of the ongoing review of the Afghan policy. Afghan elections...

A quick look at global insurgencies: One of the major questions facing Pakistan, and intriguing the world, is whether it will be able to overcome the Al-Qaeda-led insurgency soon. The question merits a cursory look at the history of insurgencies of the last half century or so before one ventures an answer to this. It took Sri Lanka 27 years to defeat Prabhakaran's Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The Indian Army has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s, currently battling about a dozen insurgencies, including those in areas such Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation "Sadhbhavana" in Jammu and Kashmir. The Philippines, spread over about 7,100 islands and inhabited by more than one hundred tribal groups which speak seventy different languages, continues to reel under the Moro Muslim Insurgency in the south. In fact, the Philippines has a history of insurgencies that began with the "Huk" rebellion, which took off in the late 1940s and faded in the 1950s, and later some of its elements merged into the communist rebellion. Vietnamese nationalist insurgents fought the United States for over a decade (1964-75). The Americans called it an insurgency, whereas the Vietnamese took pride in this war to liberate their homeland from foreign occupation. A superior outside force had to bite the dust and leave just because it could no longer justify the fighting to its citizens back home. The Soviet Russians failed to hold on to Afghanistan after invading and occupying it in 1979. Despite inflicting heavy casualties on the insurgent Mujahedeen and raising pro-Moscow cadres in Kabul, the Soviets finally gave in to the Mujahideen guerrillas (backed by the US and other major players) and pulled out in February 1989, humiliated. Similarly, the French fought Islamic insurgents for eight years in Algeria (1954-62) to retain control. But the insurgents kept the pressure up, forcing the 400,000 troops to give up and leave Algeria in 1962....

China great 'trade-route' game: China is currently quietly pursuing a new role for itself in the Indian Ocean by gradually expanding its maritime capacity. The primary purpose is to secure trade routes. And thus the desire to expand and consolidate ties with Pakistan, India and other regional countries saddling the Indian Ocean rim. In this context, Pakistan remains the key link in China Indian Ocean political matrix because the Chinese leadership continues to consider a strategically located stable Pakistan as a key to its interests in the region. For the Chinese leaders, Pakistan also serves as a reference for its contacts with the Muslim world. At the same time, the Chinese don–t want to be too candid about their tilt towards Pakistan. On more than one occasions, the Chinese very tactfully accommodated Pakistani leadership i.e. Prime minister Gilani, for instance, arrived here on a very short notice ahead of the Beijing Olympics last year, but still was placed in the front row in the inauguration ceremony, and seated at the head table for the dinner with the Chinese president. Diplomats based in Beijing interpreted this as a demonstration of the symbolism of friendship and the reverence with which Chinese treat Pakistan and its leaders. Simple statistics also favors this interpretation; China has approved the 500 million dollar Karakorum Highway expansion project. It is the only country that launched a Pakistan-specific five year Plan for Pakistan in 2006, under which it has already launched 27 projects, while close to 30 are still in the pipeline. It agreed to set up the Joint Investment Company in 2008 with a paid up capital of 200 million dollars. Within last six months Beijing also quietly extended balance of payment support worth about a billion dollar. Chinese cure for Pakistani security ailments: During Interior Minister Rehman Malik mid June visit, Beijing not only pledged $10 million immediate grant for Islamabad Police and Frontier Police but also...

Mathematics of terror: Of the nine terror attacks until 16th October, seven targeted the army, the para-military or the police, suggesting a dramatic surge in attempts by terrorists to inflict as much damage on the security apparatus as possible, ahead of an impending military assault on terror outfits in the rugged and lawless region South Waziristan near the Afghan border. 'These attacks underscore a new strategy by terrorists nestled in areas between South Waziristan and southern Punjab (central Pakistan) and require the government to urgently calibrate its counter-terror policy,' opined Tasneem Noorani, a former top bureaucrat of the ministry of interior. Like many others, Noorani, too agrees that Pakistan is now dealing with living bombs ´ youngsters who are extremely motivated and excessively brainwashed to the extent that they are ready to kill and die. Militants– methodology: Militants have also begun tricking security forces by disguising themselves and their vehicles in army fatigues, with their vehicles carrying official vehicle number plates and stickers, making it difficult for the forces to instantly identify and neutralize them. The other upsetting element is the surprise commando raids of the targets; the assault on the GHQ bore similarities to the terror strike on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore on March 3 and the attack on the Police Training School at Manawan, Lahore later that month this year. The three attacks on police buildings on Oct.15th in Lahore resembled the ones carried out at GHQ and earlier this year in Lahore, underscoring the growing nexus between militants based in Waziristan and central Pakistan regions of southern Punjab, which had been a hotbed of sectarian terrorism since the early 1980s. Most people refer to this terror network as the Punjabi Taliban. Terror shaking Pakistan: In the terror-stricken Pakistan, October 15th broke the record for the number of attacks in a day; three dare-devil commando raids on police...

Getting rid of Uzbeks is important: Pakistan embattled army appears set to move into what it calls a 'black hole' for security and intelligence forces i.e. South Waziristan. Parts of the wild and inhospitable region bordering Afghanistan eastern Paktika province ´ the mountainous and rugged Mehsud area - are being branded as al Qaeda nest, where the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan reportedly has entrenched itself. For the army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, says a senior military commander dealing with the tribal regions, the Uzbeks have meanwhile assumed a 'wild card' status in a region where space has gradually been shrinking on the Uzbek militants, largely driven by the al Qaeda ideology under Tahir Yuldashev. 'It is a do or die situation for them (Uzbeks) so they are scrambling for protection and would do anything for survival, ' says the official, adding this was one reason why common people are scared to rise against them. Based on recent intensive army and intelligence high command consultations, officials believe that the dynamics of Waziristan would change if 'we take out the Uzbeks because they represent the most dedicated al Qaeda ally in Waziristan. Does it mean the Pakistani army is about to unleash a new campaign against this 'wild card.' Officials refrain from a direct answer but they seem united in their conclusion; the security forces must cleanse Waziristan of elements which pose a direct threat to the government writ. How Uzbeks found sanctuary in Waziristan: Regardless of their exact numbers, which vary between 500-1000, most of the ferocious Uzbek militants had moved into the Waziristan region following the December 2001 defeat of their host regime ´ the Taliban. Led by Tahir Yuldashev, these IMU militants faced little problem in finding support and shelter amongst the Ahmadzai Wazir tribesmen. Yaldashev soon became a star-speaker at mosques in the Sheen Warsak region near Wana, the administrative headquarter of southern Waziristan. Once...