A quick look at global insurgencies: One of the major questions facing Pakistan, and intriguing the world, is whether it will be able to overcome the Al-Qaeda-led insurgency soon. The question merits a cursory look at the history of insurgencies of the last half century or so before one ventures an answer to this. It took Sri Lanka 27 years to defeat Prabhakaran's Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The Indian Army has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s, currently battling about a dozen insurgencies, including those in areas such Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation "Sadhbhavana" in Jammu and Kashmir. The Philippines, spread over about 7,100 islands and inhabited by more than one hundred tribal groups which speak seventy different languages, continues to reel under the Moro Muslim Insurgency in the south. In fact, the Philippines has a history of insurgencies that began with the "Huk" rebellion, which took off in the late 1940s and faded in the 1950s, and later some of its elements merged into the communist rebellion. Vietnamese nationalist insurgents fought the United States for over a decade (1964-75). The Americans called it an insurgency, whereas the Vietnamese took pride in this war to liberate their homeland from foreign occupation. A superior outside force had to bite the dust and leave just because it could no longer justify the fighting to its citizens back home. The Soviet Russians failed to hold on to Afghanistan after invading and occupying it in 1979. Despite inflicting heavy casualties on the insurgent Mujahedeen and raising pro-Moscow cadres in Kabul, the Soviets finally gave in to the Mujahideen guerrillas (backed by the US and other major players) and pulled out in February 1989, humiliated. Similarly, the French fought Islamic insurgents for eight years in Algeria (1954-62) to retain control. But the insurgents kept the pressure up, forcing the 400,000 troops to give up and leave Algeria in 1962....

China great 'trade-route' game: China is currently quietly pursuing a new role for itself in the Indian Ocean by gradually expanding its maritime capacity. The primary purpose is to secure trade routes. And thus the desire to expand and consolidate ties with Pakistan, India and other regional countries saddling the Indian Ocean rim. In this context, Pakistan remains the key link in China Indian Ocean political matrix because the Chinese leadership continues to consider a strategically located stable Pakistan as a key to its interests in the region. For the Chinese leaders, Pakistan also serves as a reference for its contacts with the Muslim world. At the same time, the Chinese don–t want to be too candid about their tilt towards Pakistan. On more than one occasions, the Chinese very tactfully accommodated Pakistani leadership i.e. Prime minister Gilani, for instance, arrived here on a very short notice ahead of the Beijing Olympics last year, but still was placed in the front row in the inauguration ceremony, and seated at the head table for the dinner with the Chinese president. Diplomats based in Beijing interpreted this as a demonstration of the symbolism of friendship and the reverence with which Chinese treat Pakistan and its leaders. Simple statistics also favors this interpretation; China has approved the 500 million dollar Karakorum Highway expansion project. It is the only country that launched a Pakistan-specific five year Plan for Pakistan in 2006, under which it has already launched 27 projects, while close to 30 are still in the pipeline. It agreed to set up the Joint Investment Company in 2008 with a paid up capital of 200 million dollars. Within last six months Beijing also quietly extended balance of payment support worth about a billion dollar. Chinese cure for Pakistani security ailments: During Interior Minister Rehman Malik mid June visit, Beijing not only pledged $10 million immediate grant for Islamabad Police and Frontier Police but also...

Mathematics of terror: Of the nine terror attacks until 16th October, seven targeted the army, the para-military or the police, suggesting a dramatic surge in attempts by terrorists to inflict as much damage on the security apparatus as possible, ahead of an impending military assault on terror outfits in the rugged and lawless region South Waziristan near the Afghan border. 'These attacks underscore a new strategy by terrorists nestled in areas between South Waziristan and southern Punjab (central Pakistan) and require the government to urgently calibrate its counter-terror policy,' opined Tasneem Noorani, a former top bureaucrat of the ministry of interior. Like many others, Noorani, too agrees that Pakistan is now dealing with living bombs ´ youngsters who are extremely motivated and excessively brainwashed to the extent that they are ready to kill and die. Militants– methodology: Militants have also begun tricking security forces by disguising themselves and their vehicles in army fatigues, with their vehicles carrying official vehicle number plates and stickers, making it difficult for the forces to instantly identify and neutralize them. The other upsetting element is the surprise commando raids of the targets; the assault on the GHQ bore similarities to the terror strike on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore on March 3 and the attack on the Police Training School at Manawan, Lahore later that month this year. The three attacks on police buildings on Oct.15th in Lahore resembled the ones carried out at GHQ and earlier this year in Lahore, underscoring the growing nexus between militants based in Waziristan and central Pakistan regions of southern Punjab, which had been a hotbed of sectarian terrorism since the early 1980s. Most people refer to this terror network as the Punjabi Taliban. Terror shaking Pakistan: In the terror-stricken Pakistan, October 15th broke the record for the number of attacks in a day; three dare-devil commando raids on police...

Getting rid of Uzbeks is important: Pakistan embattled army appears set to move into what it calls a 'black hole' for security and intelligence forces i.e. South Waziristan. Parts of the wild and inhospitable region bordering Afghanistan eastern Paktika province ´ the mountainous and rugged Mehsud area - are being branded as al Qaeda nest, where the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan reportedly has entrenched itself. For the army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, says a senior military commander dealing with the tribal regions, the Uzbeks have meanwhile assumed a 'wild card' status in a region where space has gradually been shrinking on the Uzbek militants, largely driven by the al Qaeda ideology under Tahir Yuldashev. 'It is a do or die situation for them (Uzbeks) so they are scrambling for protection and would do anything for survival, ' says the official, adding this was one reason why common people are scared to rise against them. Based on recent intensive army and intelligence high command consultations, officials believe that the dynamics of Waziristan would change if 'we take out the Uzbeks because they represent the most dedicated al Qaeda ally in Waziristan. Does it mean the Pakistani army is about to unleash a new campaign against this 'wild card.' Officials refrain from a direct answer but they seem united in their conclusion; the security forces must cleanse Waziristan of elements which pose a direct threat to the government writ. How Uzbeks found sanctuary in Waziristan: Regardless of their exact numbers, which vary between 500-1000, most of the ferocious Uzbek militants had moved into the Waziristan region following the December 2001 defeat of their host regime ´ the Taliban. Led by Tahir Yuldashev, these IMU militants faced little problem in finding support and shelter amongst the Ahmadzai Wazir tribesmen. Yaldashev soon became a star-speaker at mosques in the Sheen Warsak region near Wana, the administrative headquarter of southern Waziristan. Once...

Aid with strings? Speaking to reporters at the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh on September 27, 2009, President Barack Obama declared the world interest in Pakistan success. The US$1.5 billion a year Kerry-Lugar Aid bill reflects this desire to seePakistanemerge successful and stable despite raging insurgency in the northwest. However, even a cursory consideration of the strings attached to this aid helps understanding the real spirit behind the bill. No doubt, it is an attempt to bolster civilian rule by allocating more funds for health, education and greater accountability of funds thus spent. But the bill also clearly seeks to clip the wings of Pakistan mighty security establishment, still viewed with great skepticism as far its alleged role inAfghanistanis concerned. The US believes the Pakistan Army and its affiliated institutions constitute the biggest hurdle in the way of US-NATO objectives of achieving peace in Afghanistan. The repeated insinuations of the presence of Taliban shura in Quetta and the demands from within the US intelligence establishment to chase them in Balochistan, including subjecting suspected targets to drone attacks, must also be seen in this context. The entire clause 2 of the bill seems to have been authored with this objective. Under this, for instance, the Secretary of State will have to certify to the appropriate congressional committees that 'the Government of Pakistan during the preceding fiscal year has demonstrated a sustained commitment to and is making significant efforts towards combating terrorist groups, consistent with the purposes of assistance described in section 201, including taking into account the extent to which the Government of Pakistan has made progress on matters such as: Ceasing support, including by any elements within the Pakistan military or its intelligence agency, to extremist and terrorist groups, particularly to any group that has conducted attacks against United States or coalition forces in Afghanistan,...

Perverts contracted? As the US and British forces battle the hardened Taliban militants and the politico-military surge continues, an independent watchdog group, the Project on Government Oversight, delivered to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a video of scantily-clad security guards of the US embassy in Kabul dancing around a bonfire and urinating while others snap photographs. A video of other guards pouring alcohol down the bare backside of a new recruit and trying to drink it as it spills from the man's buttocks is also part of the report which flashed around the world in the first September week appear to show security guards employed at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul in some highly embarrassing moments. (September 3, 2009 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). Danielle Brian, executive director of the Project on Government Oversight, told media in Washington that the incidents her organization recorded are "not just a bunch of guys who are blowing off steam. It's supervisors who are...predatory, who are engaging young recruits into this really weird, deviant behavior." This is the latest of a series of abuses, misconduct and human rights violations by US soldiers or their private counterparts, hired to do jobs that the officials agencies cannot or do not want to perform. Undisciplined contracted (also): Citing written and video materials, the group accuses private security contractor Armor Group North America, which provides security guards for the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, of "grossly deficient" management that it says poses "a significant threat to the security of the embassy and its personnel -- and thereby to the diplomatic mission in Afghanistan." Armor Group is a subsidiary of the Florida-based Wackenhunt Services, which did not comment on the report. It is under a five-year, $189 million contract that was extended in June through July next year. It is just one of the several contracts handed to private security groups such DynCorp, Black Water, and some...

Taliban were thugs and a strategic burden from the beginning: The army and civilians alike were shocked and alarmed in early April when the TTP militants taking cover under a controversial peace deal, began occupying strategic locations in Buner, Mingora, Malam Jabba and other parts of Malakand. Their worries multiplied when Taliban militants abducted four Pakistan army commandos in the mountainous Buner valley and eventually executed them. 'When the pet develops rabies and starts biting its own mentors, it must be put to sleep, no way around it.' This statement that a senior general involved in military operations in the Northwestern Frontier Province (NWFP) told CRSS in late April suggested a definite new realization -- if not change of heart altogether -- that as far as the military establishment was concerned, the militants had gone too far; until that point, the army claims that it was doing its best to hunt down 'miscreants' were met with skepticism across the board. The common perception in Pakistan and elsewhere is that the country security establishment -- because of old relationships with militant outfits -- was only shadow-boxing to impress the world and would not harm those it had once created. But the military efforts in the Swat Valley and now in Khyber have helped diminish this view -- partially at least. In the process, military officials claim, close to 350 soldiers and officers have lost their lives, since the operation in Malakand/Swat region was launched in early May. Militants being killed: It was the third major setback for the dreaded outfit since August 5, when a CIA-operated drone missile took out Baitullah Mehsud, the TTP founder and chief. Only a few days after Mehsud death, TTP spokesman Maulvi Mohammad Omar was captured in the Mohmand tribal region. Also, the fate of Hakimullah Mehsud, whom the organization shura purportedly picked as the new chief on August 25, is still uncertain, with virtually no sign of him since the day he was...

Taliban were thugs and a strategic burden from the beginning: The army and civilians alike were shocked and alarmed in early April when the TTP militants taking cover under a controversial peace deal, began occupying strategic locations in Buner, Mingora, Malam Jabba and other parts of Malakand. Their worries multiplied when Taliban militants abducted four Pakistan army commandos in the mountainous Buner valley and eventually executed them. 'When the pet develops rabies and starts biting its own mentors, it must be put to sleep, no way around it.' This statement that a senior general involved in military operations in the Northwestern Frontier Province (NWFP) told CRSS in late April suggested a definite new realization -- if not change of heart altogether -- that as far as the military establishment was concerned, the militants had gone too far; until that point, the army claims that it was doing its best to hunt down 'miscreants' were met with skepticism across the board. The common perception in Pakistan and elsewhere is that the country security establishment -- because of old relationships with militant outfits -- was only shadow-boxing to impress the world and would not harm those it had once created. But the military efforts in the Swat Valley and now in Khyber have helped diminish this view -- partially at least. In the process, military officials claim, close to 350 soldiers and officers have lost their lives, since the operation in Malakand/Swat region was launched in early May. Militants being killed: It was the third major setback for the dreaded outfit since August 5, when a CIA-operated drone missile took out Baitullah Mehsud, the TTP founder and chief. Only a few days after Mehsud death, TTP spokesman Maulvi Mohammad Omar was captured in the Mohmand tribal region. Also, the fate of Hakimullah Mehsud, whom the organization shura purportedly picked as the new chief on August 25, is still uncertain, with virtually no sign of him since the day he was...

Taliban thugs strike again: Two deadly attacks within a space of 24 hours ´ one in the Khyber agency on Aug 28 and the other in Mingora/Swat next day took over 40 lives. The target again was the security apparatus. In the first instance it was the Khasadars , and in the second members of a new community police force set up to patrol the region were being trained when the attacker detonated his explosives. With these attacks, the militants primarily underscored their resolve to keep intimidating the security apparatus, a pattern Baitullah Mehsud had repeatedly vowed. Even Muslim Khan, the spokesperson for the Swat Taliban, had openly declared the army and other organs of the security apparatus as enemy targets. Are terrorists reorganizing? Earlier on August 17, the Taliban had claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings in Swat saying the blasts were a message to a visiting US envoy Richard Holbrook that the militants remained strong despite recent army gains there. All these attacks underscored that ´ despite the loss of Baitullah Mehsud in the August 5 drone attack and the confusion thereafter, the extremists remained undeterred, and ready to strike at will. The bombings were "a gift to Holbrook," Muslim Khan had said. The latest string of bombings apparently was a reaction to the claims that the military keeps churning out regarding losses to the militants. This also means the Tehreeke Taliban Pakistan has recovered, even if not fully, from the shocking death of Baitullah Mehsud, who had indeed become an icon of terror in the last two years. But on August 25, Hakimullah Mehsud finally put to rest all the speculation about Baitullah by calling up journalists in Peshawar. Hakimullah also insisted he had been unanimously made the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief by its Shura, while Maulana Waliur Rehman was named leader of the Mehsud Taliban in South Waziristan. Thugs fighting for money and power: Faqeer Mohammad, the TTP chief for the Bajaur agency ´ one...

Intellectual hostility of Indians: Following the summary dismissal of Jaswant Singh from the BJP for praising Jinnah, several questions keep coming to mind as far as the Indian claim to secularism, democracy and socio-economic justice is concerned. Is most of 'shining' India ´ as a mindset -- gridlocked between the desire to be lauded as a secular, liberal society, based on socio-economic justice, and the reality of a society, based on an unjustifiable caste system that stratifies human beings as superiors (Brahmans) and inferiors (Dalits)? Is it a country that justifiably boasts being numerically the largest democracy but whose political leadership, unfortunately, remains guided by undemocratic whims and intolerant attitudes vis-à-vis its neighbors and their leaders? These are some of the paradoxes that struck us during a brief visit to the bustling Indian capital ´ New Delhi -- where the controversy Jaswant Singh's voluminous book, Jinnah, India, Partition, Independence, had just erupted. Some were lambasting him for being a hypocrite. More defense; more poor in India: Strangely, it is a state that raises hell when Pakistan, for instance, raises its defense budget but justifies its own almost $40 billion defense spending by pointing to a border dispute with China, which is one of its largest trading partners. This huge resource allocation flies in the face of the 38 per cent population that, according to an ex-prime ministerial advisor, S M Tendulkar (Hindustan Times, Aug 20) lives in poverty ´ almost 400 million souls. Some friends dubbed Singh as an opportunist who, through his book, pretended to "speak for and expand the constituency of peace in South Asia." That is why a few Indians were surprised over the unanimous decision to expel Jaswant Singh from the party. For some, the reaction within the embattled Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), its parent organization, Rashtria Swamysevak Sangh (RSS) and similar entities ´ the proponents of Hindutva -- was quite...