Current Projects

Pakistan’s Security Doctrine: The Dissection

I The ever-growing military role of the USA in Asia and the rise of China and India has radically transformed the security environment and strategic calculus in the region. This change in the regional security sphere has direct bearing on the strategic culture of South Asia, which is already very complex due to decades– long enmity between two nuclear archrivals, India and Pakistan. The partition of Indian sub-continent stamped a shared knowledge that Pakistan and India are enemies, and they continue to behave so. This shared knowledge, along with scores of other unresolved issues like Kashmir, Rann of Kutch, Sir Creek, water dispute and Siachen, has contributed to formulate threat perception and response doctrine of the two neighbouring states. In case of Pakistan threat perception, an expressed desire for parity with India in conventional and non-conventional means of response and a security doctrine predicated on "strategic depth in the west" in case of a conflict with India, shaped its (Pakistan) responses to security challenges, driven by, mostly out of manufactured perceptions rather ground realities. This flawed threat perception and response calculus put Pakistan on the path of becoming a national security state, dominated by the garrison mentality of its defence and security establishment. Thus both of these [mis]conceptions ´ thrust for parity with India and achieving strategic depth - continue to dominate local and foreign discourse about Pakistan. The parity with India notion has its own deep roots. A shared history over thousand years, wherein the minority Muslims ruled the Hindu dominated sub-continent. Then independence in 1947, which resulted in the birth of Pakistan as a Muslim state, contributed very much to seek and realize parity with the earlier ruled Hindu majority, which emerged as an independent state of India, one day after the birth of Pakistan. Indian, due to its sheer large size and past antagonistic behaviour towards Muslims became a...

Pakistan's Security Doctrine: The Dissection

I The ever-growing military role of the USA in Asia and the rise of China and India has radically transformed the security environment and strategic calculus in the region. This change in the regional security sphere has direct bearing on the strategic culture of South Asia, which is already very complex due to decades– long enmity between two nuclear archrivals, India and Pakistan. The partition of Indian sub-continent stamped a shared knowledge that Pakistan and India are enemies, and they continue to behave so. This shared knowledge, along with scores of other unresolved issues like Kashmir, Rann of Kutch, Sir Creek, water dispute and Siachen, has contributed to formulate threat perception and response doctrine of the two neighbouring states. In case of Pakistan threat perception, an expressed desire for parity with India in conventional and non-conventional means of response and a security doctrine predicated on "strategic depth in the west" in case of a conflict with India, shaped its (Pakistan) responses to security challenges, driven by, mostly out of manufactured perceptions rather ground realities. This flawed threat perception and response calculus put Pakistan on the path of becoming a national security state, dominated by the garrison mentality of its defence and security establishment. Thus both of these [mis]conceptions ´ thrust for parity with India and achieving strategic depth - continue to dominate local and foreign discourse about Pakistan. The parity with India notion has its own deep roots. A shared history over thousand years, wherein the minority Muslims ruled the Hindu dominated sub-continent. Then independence in 1947, which resulted in the birth of Pakistan as a Muslim state, contributed very much to seek and realize parity with the earlier ruled Hindu majority, which emerged as an independent state of India, one day after the birth of Pakistan. Indian, due to its sheer large size and past antagonistic behaviour towards Muslims became a...

Pakistan's Security Doctrine: The Dissection

I The ever-growing military role of the USA in Asia and the rise of China and India has radically transformed the security environment and strategic calculus in the region. This change in the regional security sphere has direct bearing on the strategic culture of South Asia, which is already very complex due to decades– long enmity between two nuclear archrivals, India and Pakistan. The partition of Indian sub-continent stamped a shared knowledge that Pakistan and India are enemies, and they continue to behave so. This shared knowledge, along with scores of other unresolved issues like Kashmir, Rann of Kutch, Sir Creek, water dispute and Siachen, has contributed to formulate threat perception and response doctrine of the two neighbouring states. In case of Pakistan threat perception, an expressed desire for parity with India in conventional and non-conventional means of response and a security doctrine predicated on "strategic depth in the west" in case of a conflict with India, shaped its (Pakistan) responses to security challenges, driven by, mostly out of manufactured perceptions rather ground realities. This flawed threat perception and response calculus put Pakistan on the path of becoming a national security state, dominated by the garrison mentality of its defence and security establishment. Thus both of these [mis]conceptions ´ thrust for parity with India and achieving strategic depth - continue to dominate local and foreign discourse about Pakistan. The parity with India notion has its own deep roots. A shared history over thousand years, wherein the minority Muslims ruled the Hindu dominated sub-continent. Then independence in 1947, which resulted in the birth of Pakistan as a Muslim state, contributed very much to seek and realize parity with the earlier ruled Hindu majority, which emerged as an independent state of India, one day after the birth of Pakistan. Indian, due to its sheer large size and past antagonistic behaviour towards Muslims became a...

Reopening of NATO Supply Lines and Pakistan’s Dilemma

In order to leave behind the thorniest issue between Pakistan and US relations, a formal agreement has been inked on July 31, 2012 to reopen the ground lines of communication (GLOC) for NATO supplies through Pakistan. According to the agreement, US agreed to pay Pakistan $1.8 billion of reimbursements under Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and also will pay $230 customs duty on each container. The latest tug of war ensued at the start of 2011 has resulted in strained relations among the two long term but inconsistent allies. Though both the countries need a middle-way real-politik based policy.[i] But under current circumstances, it is nearly impossible as the divergence of interests is very sheer. Even the situation has deteriorated gravely as the cross-border infiltration is responded by tit for tat.[ii] From tit for tat, it is crystal clear that the attacks from Afghanistan have also soared in number and magnitude. At least 15 cross-border incursions from Kunar and Nuristan into Upper Dir, Bajaur and Chitral, resulting in 105 deaths of Pakistani army and paramilitary forces in the last 12 months or so are reported. Pakistan, though officially protest to Afghan government, but in reality, Afghan affairs are controlled by NATO forces and it can be inferred on the part of Pakistan by looking through the prism of 'correspondence inference theory' that the Western forces are behind these attacks either supporting the terrorists or providing them safe passages by ignoring their movements[iii]. The campaign of sowing terror and fear in the minds of people of Pakistan continues. The recent spate of violence against the security forces ´ beheadings of seven Pakistani soldiers, who were ambushed during a patrol and brazenly executed late June[iv], the slaughter of 14 bus passengers in Orakzai Agency on July 21 or the storming the same day of a Coast Guards unit in the Pushkin area, some 35km from Gwadar, or the July 9 assault on a small army camp on the banks of the river...

Reopening of NATO Supply Lines and Pakistan's Dilemma

In order to leave behind the thorniest issue between Pakistan and US relations, a formal agreement has been inked on July 31, 2012 to reopen the ground lines of communication (GLOC) for NATO supplies through Pakistan. According to the agreement, US agreed to pay Pakistan $1.8 billion of reimbursements under Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and also will pay $230 customs duty on each container. The latest tug of war ensued at the start of 2011 has resulted in strained relations among the two long term but inconsistent allies. Though both the countries need a middle-way real-politik based policy.[i] But under current circumstances, it is nearly impossible as the divergence of interests is very sheer. Even the situation has deteriorated gravely as the cross-border infiltration is responded by tit for tat.[ii] From tit for tat, it is crystal clear that the attacks from Afghanistan have also soared in number and magnitude. At least 15 cross-border incursions from Kunar and Nuristan into Upper Dir, Bajaur and Chitral, resulting in 105 deaths of Pakistani army and paramilitary forces in the last 12 months or so are reported. Pakistan, though officially protest to Afghan government, but in reality, Afghan affairs are controlled by NATO forces and it can be inferred on the part of Pakistan by looking through the prism of 'correspondence inference theory' that the Western forces are behind these attacks either supporting the terrorists or providing them safe passages by ignoring their movements[iii]. The campaign of sowing terror and fear in the minds of people of Pakistan continues. The recent spate of violence against the security forces ´ beheadings of seven Pakistani soldiers, who were ambushed during a patrol and brazenly executed late June[iv], the slaughter of 14 bus passengers in Orakzai Agency on July 21 or the storming the same day of a Coast Guards unit in the Pushkin area, some 35km from Gwadar, or the July 9 assault on a small army camp on the banks of the river...

Reopening of NATO Supply Lines and Pakistan's Dilemma

In order to leave behind the thorniest issue between Pakistan and US relations, a formal agreement has been inked on July 31, 2012 to reopen the ground lines of communication (GLOC) for NATO supplies through Pakistan. According to the agreement, US agreed to pay Pakistan $1.8 billion of reimbursements under Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and also will pay $230 customs duty on each container. The latest tug of war ensued at the start of 2011 has resulted in strained relations among the two long term but inconsistent allies. Though both the countries need a middle-way real-politik based policy.[i] But under current circumstances, it is nearly impossible as the divergence of interests is very sheer. Even the situation has deteriorated gravely as the cross-border infiltration is responded by tit for tat.[ii] From tit for tat, it is crystal clear that the attacks from Afghanistan have also soared in number and magnitude. At least 15 cross-border incursions from Kunar and Nuristan into Upper Dir, Bajaur and Chitral, resulting in 105 deaths of Pakistani army and paramilitary forces in the last 12 months or so are reported. Pakistan, though officially protest to Afghan government, but in reality, Afghan affairs are controlled by NATO forces and it can be inferred on the part of Pakistan by looking through the prism of 'correspondence inference theory' that the Western forces are behind these attacks either supporting the terrorists or providing them safe passages by ignoring their movements[iii]. The campaign of sowing terror and fear in the minds of people of Pakistan continues. The recent spate of violence against the security forces ´ beheadings of seven Pakistani soldiers, who were ambushed during a patrol and brazenly executed late June[iv], the slaughter of 14 bus passengers in Orakzai Agency on July 21 or the storming the same day of a Coast Guards unit in the Pushkin area, some 35km from Gwadar, or the July 9 assault on a small army camp on the banks of the river...

The Role of Media and Civil Society in Balochistan

Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Islamabad in partnership with the Association for Integrated Development (AID) organized a workshop 'The Role of Media and Civil Society in Balochistan' at Quetta Press Club on July 07, 2012 to discuss the role of media and civil society in Balochistan. Participants were of the view that media and civil society cannot operate freely in the province due to security reasons and harassment by the militants and security agencies. Coverage and role of media is particularly being impeded by the state intelligence agencies, in order to keep the outside world in dark about the volatile situation on ground in the province, where violence and terror is normal state of affairs. Addressing the workshop, Irfan Rana, a reporter working for the The Tribune Express and Express TV said I never experienced such enraged circumstances in Balochistan earlier which are unprecedented in the aftermath of Nawab Akbar Bugti murder in August 2006. He noted that the military operation is the prime factor behind the present chaotic situation. He observed that media is being targeted deliberately and our colleagues are picked and beaten up frequently, when we try to make video of FC activities in certain areas. Muhammad Akbarof Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) said the sense of deprivation of the Baloch people is at the top of all problems, because funds are delivered to the provincial government but are not spent properly rather misused by the ruling elite. 'The worsening condition of roads in Quetta speaks itself about the state of decaying infrastructure in the province' he illustrated. Arshad Jan of LIFE, Balochistan said civil society is at the receiving end of conflicts since the beginning. 'Meanwhile, sardars are always promoted and protected by the state. So tribal sardars, sense of deprivation, intelligence agencies and the so called pro-Pakistan groups basically religious extremists, they all operate with impunity in the province' he...

Weekly Data Sheet (July 20-26, 2012)

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Weekly Report (July 20 – 26, 2012)

The violence across Pakistan slightly escalated during the current week. The relentless wave of target killings in the largest metropolis of Pakistan, Karachi (Sindh), clashes between militants and security forces in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and bomb blasts across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) continued to inflict death and destruction upon the people. The data collected (throughten newspapers that CRSS uses as the source) suggests that as many as 144 persons fell prey to the 74 incidents of violence across the country during the reported week (for detailssee data sheet).These violent incidents also left 74 people injured whereas the number of wounded increased considerably from last week 60 to 74 this week. Contrary to the common trend witnessed over the past six weeks, wherein civilians were the prime target; the militants endured the maximum loss in the country during the week. Seventy three militants were killed and another fourteen got injured under different circumstances. The second highest number of casualties were ofcivilians, wherein 54 civilians were killed and another 51 were injured in different parts of the country. Civilian casualties dropped by 55 percent, as civilian casualties constituted just 37 percent of the total death toll this week. Furthermore, unlike the previous week, one CIA operated drone strikewas reported this week killing 14 suspected militants in Dre-Nishtar village of Shawal valley, North Waziristan Agency (FATA). The sabotage campaign by the militants continued to tear apart state infrastructure, as militants blew up a portion of railway track in Balochistan and four government schools in KP and FATA regions. One sectarian attack was reported during the week, wherein a Hazara Shia official was shot and injured in Quetta city, Balochistan. Meanwhile, the casualties due to the ferocious waves of target killings plunged sharply by 48 percent during the current week. Overall, 44 percent of the total violent attacks...