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The Drone Outrage

The latest rain of Hellfire missiles fired off CIA-operated drones on targets in Waziristan, in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas(FATA), offer Pakistan another excuse to protest the series of attacks that have killed some three dozen people between August 19 to August 24. The latest string of these multiple strikes on Friday, August 24, left at least 18 people dead, reportedly including either Badruddin Haqqani, the younger brother of the head of the Haqqani Network, Sirajuddin, or a younger member of the family[i]. Only 24 hours earlier, August 23, Pakistani officials had lodged a formal protest to the US on North Warziristan drone attacks[ii]. Pakistan maintains that such strikes not only violate international laws but also its territorial sovereignty. During the current year so far, the CIA has operated as many as 32 lethal drone strikes. A cursory breakdown of these strikes suggests that some 14 were directed against the Haqqani Network, nine against Hafiz Gul Bahadur, a North Waziristan-based warlord considered the mainstay support for the Haqqani Network and Al Qaeda fighters, three against Maulvi Nazir (Wana, South Waziristan), about six aimed at the TTP warlord Hakeemullah Mehsud and 5 for other splinters of Taliban, largely known as Punjabi Taliban. On the face of it, the intensification underlines a revival of intelligence-sharing between the US and Pakistani institutions. One indicator for that is a drone strike in the region between Pakistan's Bajaur agency and the eastern Afghan Kunar province, which anti-Pakistan TTP is reportedly using for attacks on Pakistani security posts. The death in a US-Afghan attack on the Afghan soil of Mulla Dadullah, the head of the Bajaur agency TTP, over the weekend, and raging border region skirmishes between the TTP and Pakistani military also point to the possible resumption of tactical contacts between forces on both sides of the Durand Line.   Constellation of Militants The TTP has also vowed revenge for...

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Weekly Report (August 10 – 16, 2012)

The overall level of violence escalated substantially across Pakistan during the week. Meanwhile, the spree of target killings in Karachi (Sindh), military-militants– clashes in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and series of bomb blasts rocked Pakistan during the week. The data collected (throughten newspapers that CRSS uses as the source) suggests that as many as 115 persons fell prey to 50 incidents of violence across the country during the reported week (for detailssee data sheet).These violent incidents also left 116 people injured across the country. Contrary to the preceding two weeks, wherein civilians endured the maximum loss, militants bore the major brunt of the ongoing violence across the country. Sixty militants got killed and another fourteen injured under different circumstances. The second highest number of casualties were ofcivilians, wherein, as many as,44 civilians were killed and 51 others got wounded. Furthermore, like the previous week noCIA operated drone strikewas reported in any part of the country. Moreover, sabotage attacks by the miscreants once again picked up during the reporting week as two power pylons and a portion of railway track was blown up by the miscreants in KP and Balochistan provinces respectively. Militants also blew up a government primary school in Mardan district (KP). Unlike the preceding week, three sectarian attacks were witnessed during this week, wherein three activists of Sunni Tehrik (ST) and a Shia man were killed in different areas of Karachi (Sindh). Moreover, casualties due to the relentless wave of target killings were down by five percent. Overall, 44 percent of the total violent attacks wereoftarget killingin nature.The trend also suggests that the target killing remains responsible for the most number of deaths in the ongoing violent conflicts around the country (seethe pie chart below). Furthermore, data shows that of the total 22 incidents of target killings, a staggering 63 percent took place...

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Weekly Report (August 03 – 09, 2012)

The overall level of violence and the consequent fatalities subsided significantly across Pakistan during the current week. However, the largest metropolis and the busiest harbor city of the country, Karachi, continued to seethe under the ethno-political violence perpetrated by the warring factions ´ wherein 22 people were butchered during the course of current week. The data collected (throughten newspapers that CRSS uses as the source) suggests that as many as 64 persons fell prey to the 34 incidents of violence across the country during the reported week (for detailssee data sheet).These violent incidents also left 62 people injured across the country. During the week under review civilians were again the prime target of the ongoing violence across the country, as 60 percent of the total fatalities were of the civilians this week i.e. as many as 39 civilians were killed and 35 others wounded under different circumstances. Militants– causalities, mostly due to the clashes between military and militants in different areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), were the second major cause of deaths, wherein 15 militants were killed and another five got injured. Furthermore, unlike the preceding two weeks (last one of July and first one of August), when two US operated drone strikes killed 21 suspected militants in different areas of North Waziristan Agency (FATA), no CIA operated drone strikewas reported this week. Moreover a fragile calm was observed in the terrorist incidents, usually targeting state infrastructure or security targets. No significant sabotage activity was reported in any part of the country during the course of the week. Contrary to the month of July, which saw scores of people becoming victims of sectarian target killings, no sectarian attack was witnessed across the country during this week. Moreover, casualties off target killings were down by seven percent, during the current week. Overall 50 percent of...

The elusive alliance

The July 31 U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee nomination hearing for ambassadors-designate Richard Olson (for Pakistan) and James Cunningham (for Afghanistan) exemplified the contradictory nature of U.S. relations with Pakistan. The foreign policies of the two countries are at irreconcilable cross purposes, which may converge in time, but not in the foreseeable future. At the outset of the hearing, John Kerry, the committee's chairman, acknowledged that Pakistanis have suffered greatly in the fight against terror, and also underlined that "Pakistan remains central to what happens in Afghanistan." Ambassador-designate Richard Olson echoed Kerry's remarks, saying, "I don't have to tell you how important Pakistan is to the United States." Later, Olson responded positively when asked about Pakistan military's doctrine of "strategic depth" (a concept in which Pakistan uses Afghanistan as an instrument of strategic security in ongoing tensions with India by attempting to control Afghanistan as a pawn for its own political purposes). "My sense is that the Pakistani military and Pakistani government has moved away from [strategic depth]," the ambassador argued, probably drawing cues from Pakistan's gradually expanding dialogue with arch-rival India. Most of the Western skepticism of Pakistan's role in Afghanistan has been embedded in distrust of the so-called doctrine of strategic depth, a dynamic which outside observers have been reluctant to acknowledge is changing for the better. However, Ambassador Olson also reaffirmed the United States' concern about the Pakistan-based Haqqani Network, describing it as "one of the toughest challenges that the U.S. faces." Olson's characterization only reaffirms the long-held view that the Haqqanis must remain a priority of the U.S. security establishment for their part in several deadly suicide bombings in and around Kabul since 2008. The U.S. Senate recently passed a bill requiring Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to report...

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Monthly Report (July 2012)

The month of July witnessed relatively lower levels of violence across Pakistan, yet, ethno-political violence in Karachi, religio-political terrorism in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, and the nationalist-separatist violence in Baluchistan continued to dominate Pakistan security landscape. Violence, predominantly led by the Tehreeke Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in FATA and KPK, swallowed almost 257 persons during the month under review. As a whole, suggests the data collected through different sources, some 518 people lost their lives in 208 incidents of violence across the country (for details see data sheet). It also underlines that the overall level of violence dropped in July in comparison to June, wherein 545 people perished. Violent clashes, largely of social nature, also left 281 people injured across the country during the reporting month. As a whole, defenseless civilians remained the primary target of violent actors, borne out by the fact that civilians accounted for more than half of the total deaths in various acts of violence and terrorism across Pakistan. As noted in pie chart I below, civilians accounted for almost 58 percent of the total dead in July. The proportion of the civilian deaths ´ 299 in all - is slightly higher compared to the 51 percent in June. The second highest number of fatalities is of militants i.e. 31 percent of the total dead, followed by 11 percent casualties of the security forces. Almost all these casualties i.e. of the militants and the security forces were recorded in insurgency infested areas of FATA and Balochistan. Furthermore during July, three CIA- operated drone strikes ( compared to six such strikes in June) were reported in different areas of North Waziristan Agency (FATA), leaving as many as 44 suspected militants dead, bringing the total of drone attacks. Between March and July to 21, which killed as many as 167 suspected militants. Meanwhile, carrying on their...

Balochistan: Beyond Government Claims

Islamabad (August 6, 2012): The situation in Balochistan is hopelessly bleak primarily because of the absence of political will. The federal government has failed in addressing some of the most pressing issues of Balochistan. A free and fair election in the volatile province is the only hope. This was the general understanding among the participants at a Discussion Forum organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) on Balochistan: Beyond Government Claims in Islamabad Club on August 6, 2012. A number of prominent persons - ex-military men, former ambassadors, academicians and journalists were part of the Forum, chaired by the distinguished analyst Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Talat Masood. Mr. Masood, in his opening remarks, said from the coercive diplomacy and threat of use of force against the state of Khan of Kalat in 1948 to enforced accession of the Kalat state into Pakistan, to the current insurgency in Balochistan; the government of Pakistan has not taken any serious step to tackle the Baloch problem. He added that the government blames the foreign actors for fuelling the insurgency, but it is obvious that foreign powers will play hand if they are providedwith an opportunity because these are the rules of the game in world politics. Moreover, he also added that in order to minimize foreign involvement, one should put his own house in order in order to fill the gap, which the foreign elements are exploiting. Senator Mir Hasil Bizenjo of National Party, Balochistan said that everyone is aware of the gravity of the current situation in Balochistan but lack of will and sincerity - both in the civilian and military leadership - remains the biggest obstruction. Taking swipe at Interior Minister Rehman Malik recent (August 3 and 4) claims in the Senate - the upper house of the parliament - about the root-causes of the Baloch insurgency, Bizenjo said the official thinking was frozen in the 1970s ( when Moscow-inspired socialists were leading a nationalist...

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Weekly Report (July 27 – August 02, 2012)

Violence subsided considerably across Pakistan during the current week. Meanwhile, clashes between militants and security forces in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and bomb blasts across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) continued to pile misery on the people. The data collected (throughten newspapers that CRSS uses as the source) suggests that as many as 90 persons fell prey to the 54 incidents of violence across the country during the reported week (for detailssee data sheet).These violent incidents also left 65 people injured, while number of wounded decreased considerably from last week 74 to 65 this week. Unlike the previous week, where militants bore the major burnt, civilians paid the maximum price of the ongoing spate of violence in the country, as 60 percent of the total casualties were of the civilians during the current week. Numerically, 55 civilians were killed and 55 others were wounded under different circumstances, across the country. The second highest number of casualties was of militants wherein 29 militants were killed and another four were injured, mostly as a result of military vs. militants– clashes in different areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and FATA. Furthermore, like the preceding week, one CIA operated drone strikewas reported this week killing seven suspected militants in Khushali village on Mir Ali- Khaisur road, North Waziristan Agency (FATA). Militants also blew up four government schools in KP and FATA regions. Like the previous week, only one sectarian attack was reported during the week, wherein a Hazara minority Shia was shot dead in Kwari road area of Quetta city (Balochistan). Moreover, fatalities due to the ferocious wave of target killings swelled by 15 percent, during the current week. Overall 53 percent of the total violent attacks wereof target killing in nature. The trend suggests that the target killing insistently remains the weapon of choice in the hands of miscreants to inflict violence against the helpless...

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TESTIMONIALS

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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar