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Pakistan Conflict Tracker Monthly Report (July 2012)

The month of July witnessed relatively lower levels of violence across Pakistan, yet, ethno-political violence in Karachi, religio-political terrorism in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, and the nationalist-separatist violence in Baluchistan continued to dominate Pakistan security landscape. Violence, predominantly led by the Tehreeke Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in FATA and KPK, swallowed almost 257 persons during the month under review. As a whole, suggests the data collected through different sources, some 518 people lost their lives in 208 incidents of violence across the country (for details see data sheet). It also underlines that the overall level of violence dropped in July in comparison to June, wherein 545 people perished. Violent clashes, largely of social nature, also left 281 people injured across the country during the reporting month. As a whole, defenseless civilians remained the primary target of violent actors, borne out by the fact that civilians accounted for more than half of the total deaths in various acts of violence and terrorism across Pakistan. As noted in pie chart I below, civilians accounted for almost 58 percent of the total dead in July. The proportion of the civilian deaths ´ 299 in all - is slightly higher compared to the 51 percent in June. The second highest number of fatalities is of militants i.e. 31 percent of the total dead, followed by 11 percent casualties of the security forces. Almost all these casualties i.e. of the militants and the security forces were recorded in insurgency infested areas of FATA and Balochistan. Furthermore during July, three CIA- operated drone strikes ( compared to six such strikes in June) were reported in different areas of North Waziristan Agency (FATA), leaving as many as 44 suspected militants dead, bringing the total of drone attacks. Between March and July to 21, which killed as many as 167 suspected militants. Meanwhile, carrying on their...

Balochistan: Beyond Government Claims

Islamabad (August 6, 2012): The situation in Balochistan is hopelessly bleak primarily because of the absence of political will. The federal government has failed in addressing some of the most pressing issues of Balochistan. A free and fair election in the volatile province is the only hope. This was the general understanding among the participants at a Discussion Forum organized by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) on Balochistan: Beyond Government Claims in Islamabad Club on August 6, 2012. A number of prominent persons - ex-military men, former ambassadors, academicians and journalists were part of the Forum, chaired by the distinguished analyst Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Talat Masood. Mr. Masood, in his opening remarks, said from the coercive diplomacy and threat of use of force against the state of Khan of Kalat in 1948 to enforced accession of the Kalat state into Pakistan, to the current insurgency in Balochistan; the government of Pakistan has not taken any serious step to tackle the Baloch problem. He added that the government blames the foreign actors for fuelling the insurgency, but it is obvious that foreign powers will play hand if they are providedwith an opportunity because these are the rules of the game in world politics. Moreover, he also added that in order to minimize foreign involvement, one should put his own house in order in order to fill the gap, which the foreign elements are exploiting. Senator Mir Hasil Bizenjo of National Party, Balochistan said that everyone is aware of the gravity of the current situation in Balochistan but lack of will and sincerity - both in the civilian and military leadership - remains the biggest obstruction. Taking swipe at Interior Minister Rehman Malik recent (August 3 and 4) claims in the Senate - the upper house of the parliament - about the root-causes of the Baloch insurgency, Bizenjo said the official thinking was frozen in the 1970s ( when Moscow-inspired socialists were leading a nationalist...

Weekly Data Sheet (July 27-August 02, 2012)

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Weekly Report (July 27 – August 02, 2012)

Violence subsided considerably across Pakistan during the current week. Meanwhile, clashes between militants and security forces in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and bomb blasts across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) continued to pile misery on the people. The data collected (throughten newspapers that CRSS uses as the source) suggests that as many as 90 persons fell prey to the 54 incidents of violence across the country during the reported week (for detailssee data sheet).These violent incidents also left 65 people injured, while number of wounded decreased considerably from last week 74 to 65 this week. Unlike the previous week, where militants bore the major burnt, civilians paid the maximum price of the ongoing spate of violence in the country, as 60 percent of the total casualties were of the civilians during the current week. Numerically, 55 civilians were killed and 55 others were wounded under different circumstances, across the country. The second highest number of casualties was of militants wherein 29 militants were killed and another four were injured, mostly as a result of military vs. militants– clashes in different areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and FATA. Furthermore, like the preceding week, one CIA operated drone strikewas reported this week killing seven suspected militants in Khushali village on Mir Ali- Khaisur road, North Waziristan Agency (FATA). Militants also blew up four government schools in KP and FATA regions. Like the previous week, only one sectarian attack was reported during the week, wherein a Hazara minority Shia was shot dead in Kwari road area of Quetta city (Balochistan). Moreover, fatalities due to the ferocious wave of target killings swelled by 15 percent, during the current week. Overall 53 percent of the total violent attacks wereof target killing in nature. The trend suggests that the target killing insistently remains the weapon of choice in the hands of miscreants to inflict violence against the helpless...

Pakistan’s Security Doctrine: The Dissection

I The ever-growing military role of the USA in Asia and the rise of China and India has radically transformed the security environment and strategic calculus in the region. This change in the regional security sphere has direct bearing on the strategic culture of South Asia, which is already very complex due to decades– long enmity between two nuclear archrivals, India and Pakistan. The partition of Indian sub-continent stamped a shared knowledge that Pakistan and India are enemies, and they continue to behave so. This shared knowledge, along with scores of other unresolved issues like Kashmir, Rann of Kutch, Sir Creek, water dispute and Siachen, has contributed to formulate threat perception and response doctrine of the two neighbouring states. In case of Pakistan threat perception, an expressed desire for parity with India in conventional and non-conventional means of response and a security doctrine predicated on "strategic depth in the west" in case of a conflict with India, shaped its (Pakistan) responses to security challenges, driven by, mostly out of manufactured perceptions rather ground realities. This flawed threat perception and response calculus put Pakistan on the path of becoming a national security state, dominated by the garrison mentality of its defence and security establishment. Thus both of these [mis]conceptions ´ thrust for parity with India and achieving strategic depth - continue to dominate local and foreign discourse about Pakistan. The parity with India notion has its own deep roots. A shared history over thousand years, wherein the minority Muslims ruled the Hindu dominated sub-continent. Then independence in 1947, which resulted in the birth of Pakistan as a Muslim state, contributed very much to seek and realize parity with the earlier ruled Hindu majority, which emerged as an independent state of India, one day after the birth of Pakistan. Indian, due to its sheer large size and past antagonistic behaviour towards Muslims became a...

Pakistan's Security Doctrine: The Dissection

I The ever-growing military role of the USA in Asia and the rise of China and India has radically transformed the security environment and strategic calculus in the region. This change in the regional security sphere has direct bearing on the strategic culture of South Asia, which is already very complex due to decades– long enmity between two nuclear archrivals, India and Pakistan. The partition of Indian sub-continent stamped a shared knowledge that Pakistan and India are enemies, and they continue to behave so. This shared knowledge, along with scores of other unresolved issues like Kashmir, Rann of Kutch, Sir Creek, water dispute and Siachen, has contributed to formulate threat perception and response doctrine of the two neighbouring states. In case of Pakistan threat perception, an expressed desire for parity with India in conventional and non-conventional means of response and a security doctrine predicated on "strategic depth in the west" in case of a conflict with India, shaped its (Pakistan) responses to security challenges, driven by, mostly out of manufactured perceptions rather ground realities. This flawed threat perception and response calculus put Pakistan on the path of becoming a national security state, dominated by the garrison mentality of its defence and security establishment. Thus both of these [mis]conceptions ´ thrust for parity with India and achieving strategic depth - continue to dominate local and foreign discourse about Pakistan. The parity with India notion has its own deep roots. A shared history over thousand years, wherein the minority Muslims ruled the Hindu dominated sub-continent. Then independence in 1947, which resulted in the birth of Pakistan as a Muslim state, contributed very much to seek and realize parity with the earlier ruled Hindu majority, which emerged as an independent state of India, one day after the birth of Pakistan. Indian, due to its sheer large size and past antagonistic behaviour towards Muslims became a...

Pakistan's Security Doctrine: The Dissection

I The ever-growing military role of the USA in Asia and the rise of China and India has radically transformed the security environment and strategic calculus in the region. This change in the regional security sphere has direct bearing on the strategic culture of South Asia, which is already very complex due to decades– long enmity between two nuclear archrivals, India and Pakistan. The partition of Indian sub-continent stamped a shared knowledge that Pakistan and India are enemies, and they continue to behave so. This shared knowledge, along with scores of other unresolved issues like Kashmir, Rann of Kutch, Sir Creek, water dispute and Siachen, has contributed to formulate threat perception and response doctrine of the two neighbouring states. In case of Pakistan threat perception, an expressed desire for parity with India in conventional and non-conventional means of response and a security doctrine predicated on "strategic depth in the west" in case of a conflict with India, shaped its (Pakistan) responses to security challenges, driven by, mostly out of manufactured perceptions rather ground realities. This flawed threat perception and response calculus put Pakistan on the path of becoming a national security state, dominated by the garrison mentality of its defence and security establishment. Thus both of these [mis]conceptions ´ thrust for parity with India and achieving strategic depth - continue to dominate local and foreign discourse about Pakistan. The parity with India notion has its own deep roots. A shared history over thousand years, wherein the minority Muslims ruled the Hindu dominated sub-continent. Then independence in 1947, which resulted in the birth of Pakistan as a Muslim state, contributed very much to seek and realize parity with the earlier ruled Hindu majority, which emerged as an independent state of India, one day after the birth of Pakistan. Indian, due to its sheer large size and past antagonistic behaviour towards Muslims became a...

Reopening of NATO Supply Lines and Pakistan’s Dilemma

In order to leave behind the thorniest issue between Pakistan and US relations, a formal agreement has been inked on July 31, 2012 to reopen the ground lines of communication (GLOC) for NATO supplies through Pakistan. According to the agreement, US agreed to pay Pakistan $1.8 billion of reimbursements under Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and also will pay $230 customs duty on each container. The latest tug of war ensued at the start of 2011 has resulted in strained relations among the two long term but inconsistent allies. Though both the countries need a middle-way real-politik based policy.[i] But under current circumstances, it is nearly impossible as the divergence of interests is very sheer. Even the situation has deteriorated gravely as the cross-border infiltration is responded by tit for tat.[ii] From tit for tat, it is crystal clear that the attacks from Afghanistan have also soared in number and magnitude. At least 15 cross-border incursions from Kunar and Nuristan into Upper Dir, Bajaur and Chitral, resulting in 105 deaths of Pakistani army and paramilitary forces in the last 12 months or so are reported. Pakistan, though officially protest to Afghan government, but in reality, Afghan affairs are controlled by NATO forces and it can be inferred on the part of Pakistan by looking through the prism of 'correspondence inference theory' that the Western forces are behind these attacks either supporting the terrorists or providing them safe passages by ignoring their movements[iii]. The campaign of sowing terror and fear in the minds of people of Pakistan continues. The recent spate of violence against the security forces ´ beheadings of seven Pakistani soldiers, who were ambushed during a patrol and brazenly executed late June[iv], the slaughter of 14 bus passengers in Orakzai Agency on July 21 or the storming the same day of a Coast Guards unit in the Pushkin area, some 35km from Gwadar, or the July 9 assault on a small army camp on the banks of the river...

Reopening of NATO Supply Lines and Pakistan's Dilemma

In order to leave behind the thorniest issue between Pakistan and US relations, a formal agreement has been inked on July 31, 2012 to reopen the ground lines of communication (GLOC) for NATO supplies through Pakistan. According to the agreement, US agreed to pay Pakistan $1.8 billion of reimbursements under Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and also will pay $230 customs duty on each container. The latest tug of war ensued at the start of 2011 has resulted in strained relations among the two long term but inconsistent allies. Though both the countries need a middle-way real-politik based policy.[i] But under current circumstances, it is nearly impossible as the divergence of interests is very sheer. Even the situation has deteriorated gravely as the cross-border infiltration is responded by tit for tat.[ii] From tit for tat, it is crystal clear that the attacks from Afghanistan have also soared in number and magnitude. At least 15 cross-border incursions from Kunar and Nuristan into Upper Dir, Bajaur and Chitral, resulting in 105 deaths of Pakistani army and paramilitary forces in the last 12 months or so are reported. Pakistan, though officially protest to Afghan government, but in reality, Afghan affairs are controlled by NATO forces and it can be inferred on the part of Pakistan by looking through the prism of 'correspondence inference theory' that the Western forces are behind these attacks either supporting the terrorists or providing them safe passages by ignoring their movements[iii]. The campaign of sowing terror and fear in the minds of people of Pakistan continues. The recent spate of violence against the security forces ´ beheadings of seven Pakistani soldiers, who were ambushed during a patrol and brazenly executed late June[iv], the slaughter of 14 bus passengers in Orakzai Agency on July 21 or the storming the same day of a Coast Guards unit in the Pushkin area, some 35km from Gwadar, or the July 9 assault on a small army camp on the banks of the river...

Reopening of NATO Supply Lines and Pakistan's Dilemma

In order to leave behind the thorniest issue between Pakistan and US relations, a formal agreement has been inked on July 31, 2012 to reopen the ground lines of communication (GLOC) for NATO supplies through Pakistan. According to the agreement, US agreed to pay Pakistan $1.8 billion of reimbursements under Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and also will pay $230 customs duty on each container. The latest tug of war ensued at the start of 2011 has resulted in strained relations among the two long term but inconsistent allies. Though both the countries need a middle-way real-politik based policy.[i] But under current circumstances, it is nearly impossible as the divergence of interests is very sheer. Even the situation has deteriorated gravely as the cross-border infiltration is responded by tit for tat.[ii] From tit for tat, it is crystal clear that the attacks from Afghanistan have also soared in number and magnitude. At least 15 cross-border incursions from Kunar and Nuristan into Upper Dir, Bajaur and Chitral, resulting in 105 deaths of Pakistani army and paramilitary forces in the last 12 months or so are reported. Pakistan, though officially protest to Afghan government, but in reality, Afghan affairs are controlled by NATO forces and it can be inferred on the part of Pakistan by looking through the prism of 'correspondence inference theory' that the Western forces are behind these attacks either supporting the terrorists or providing them safe passages by ignoring their movements[iii]. The campaign of sowing terror and fear in the minds of people of Pakistan continues. The recent spate of violence against the security forces ´ beheadings of seven Pakistani soldiers, who were ambushed during a patrol and brazenly executed late June[iv], the slaughter of 14 bus passengers in Orakzai Agency on July 21 or the storming the same day of a Coast Guards unit in the Pushkin area, some 35km from Gwadar, or the July 9 assault on a small army camp on the banks of the river...