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Arrows in the army’s quiver

In a country where the military establishment has called the shots for most of its existence, an unusual focus on the army, particularly during times of crisis, makes sense. Whether it is the general elections, the fight against terrorism, or Pakistan's role in Afghanistan, the focus falls on the occupants of the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. That prompted Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Kayani to speak to three dozen journalists, columnists and talk show hosts on February 28 about the recent multi-party conferences on talking to the Taliban, the situation in Afghanistan, and the coming general elections. And if the bits and pieces of the interaction that appeared in the press were any guide, he explained his position on major issues from a strictly constitutional point of view, often quoting the Article 245. This article stipulates that the army, when called upon, will come in aid of civil power. "The army comes in to help only if requested but cannot and should not assume civilian power. That is where the problem starts," Kayani told the journalists. Subsequent background discussions with critical stakeholders also corroborated some of the points Gen Kayani raised in his interaction with journalists. On the domestic front the GHQ feels that Article 245 clearly defines its role and unless asked by the government, the army will not assume any responsibility for and during the elections. Mere deployment of 200,000 soldiers across the country hardly means anything for an electoral process that the army as an institution does not control, Kayani reportedly told the journalists. Gen Kayani has occupied extremely critical offices in the last one decade or so - from director general Military Operations to ISI chief, to his current position for almost six years now. Since taking over from General Musharraf in November 2007, Kayani has often embedded his discussion in the Article 245, insisting he won't do anything beyond it. That is probably why he opted to express...

Arrows in the army's quiver

In a country where the military establishment has called the shots for most of its existence, an unusual focus on the army, particularly during times of crisis, makes sense. Whether it is the general elections, the fight against terrorism, or Pakistan's role in Afghanistan, the focus falls on the occupants of the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. That prompted Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Kayani to speak to three dozen journalists, columnists and talk show hosts on February 28 about the recent multi-party conferences on talking to the Taliban, the situation in Afghanistan, and the coming general elections. And if the bits and pieces of the interaction that appeared in the press were any guide, he explained his position on major issues from a strictly constitutional point of view, often quoting the Article 245. This article stipulates that the army, when called upon, will come in aid of civil power. "The army comes in to help only if requested but cannot and should not assume civilian power. That is where the problem starts," Kayani told the journalists. Subsequent background discussions with critical stakeholders also corroborated some of the points Gen Kayani raised in his interaction with journalists. On the domestic front the GHQ feels that Article 245 clearly defines its role and unless asked by the government, the army will not assume any responsibility for and during the elections. Mere deployment of 200,000 soldiers across the country hardly means anything for an electoral process that the army as an institution does not control, Kayani reportedly told the journalists. Gen Kayani has occupied extremely critical offices in the last one decade or so - from director general Military Operations to ISI chief, to his current position for almost six years now. Since taking over from General Musharraf in November 2007, Kayani has often embedded his discussion in the Article 245, insisting he won't do anything beyond it. That is probably why he opted to express...

Weekly Data Sheet – February 15-21, 2013

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Weekly Report – February 15-21, 2013

The overall level of violence spiked substantially across Pakistan during the current week. Meanwhile, the spate of ethno-political violence in the largest metropolis, Karachi, de-escalated during the week, wherein 44 persons (compared to 58 in last week) were killed. Also, the wave of bomb blasts across the country, spree of target killings and the recovery of mutilated dead bodies continued to mount death toll during the week. The data collected through10 newspapers, that CRSS uses as the source, indicates that as many as 228 persons lost their lives as a result of 107 violent incidents across the country during the reported week (for detailssee data sheet).The violent incidents also left 255 people injured. As in case of preceding weeks, civilians bore the major brunt of the ongoing spate of violence across Pakistan as they accounted foralmost 69 percent of the total death toll. Numerically, 158 civilians lost their lives and 243 others were wounded in violent clashes of various kinds across the country. The second highest number of fatalities was ofmilitants, wherein 55 militants got killed under different circumstances. Furthermore, no CIA operated drone strike was reported during the week in any part of the country. Meanwhile thesabotage campaign by the militants continued to demolish state infrastructure and undermine stability as militants blew up one state-run school and two CD shops in KP, 17 houses in FATA, three power pylons and six vehicles in Balochistan. Meanwhile, 13 sectarian attacksleft 11 dead in Karachi, one in KP and 72 in Balochistan this week. Moreover, the loss of lives due to target killings decreased by nine percent, (24 percent of the total dead against last week 33 percent) during the current week. Overall, 43 percent of the total violent attacks wereoftarget killingin nature(seethe pie chart below). Furthermore, data underlines that of the total 46 incidents of target killings; 70 percent took place in Karachi alone, decimating 36...

Ordered Disorder: Thinking through Karachi’s State of Permanent Warfare

Press Release Political patronage of tactical alliances comprising criminal, ethnic and commercial interests, as well as extremely poor governance have all combined to sink Karachi in administrative chaos and political violence. Those supposed to fix problems are themselves part of the problems, thus transforming Karachi into a battlefield of multiple interests. Encapsulating his experience of Karachi as an outside observer, Laurent Gayer, a French political scientist, said a lot insecurity and misgovernance is rooted in the threats that the MQM perceives to its hegemony of nearly three decades. In his lecture on ¿Ordered Disorder: Thinking through Karachi's State of Permanent Warfare– at Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Islamabad on February 20, 2013, Mr Gayer likened Karachi to Beirut– due to the fragility of law and order situation and patchy governance in the mega city. He observed that Karachi today has drifted into administrative and political chaos because political parties running it themselves to benefit from the privatization of service delivery. His research is based on to see what is next to this permanent ordered disorder in his forthcoming book on Karachi. Historically, the role of illicit trade, the criminalization of Karachi is essential elements of the growth of this city, he said. In this regard he compared Karachi with Mumbai which has similarity with Karachi in the sense of social leadership. According to him violence in Karachi is not existential but it is instrumental. What makes Karachi different from Mumbai is the kind of violence which escalated in Karachi with the arms influx after Afghan war, i.e. modern weapons which are used for violence. He also talked about the transformation of conflict after the rise of religious parties in Karachi. Islami Jamiat Talaba is now much stronger militarily than the student faction of Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). The thing which also makes Karachi different from Mumbai is the scale of...

Ordered Disorder: Thinking through Karachi's State of Permanent Warfare

Press Release Political patronage of tactical alliances comprising criminal, ethnic and commercial interests, as well as extremely poor governance have all combined to sink Karachi in administrative chaos and political violence. Those supposed to fix problems are themselves part of the problems, thus transforming Karachi into a battlefield of multiple interests. Encapsulating his experience of Karachi as an outside observer, Laurent Gayer, a French political scientist, said a lot insecurity and misgovernance is rooted in the threats that the MQM perceives to its hegemony of nearly three decades. In his lecture on ¿Ordered Disorder: Thinking through Karachi's State of Permanent Warfare– at Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Islamabad on February 20, 2013, Mr Gayer likened Karachi to Beirut– due to the fragility of law and order situation and patchy governance in the mega city. He observed that Karachi today has drifted into administrative and political chaos because political parties running it themselves to benefit from the privatization of service delivery. His research is based on to see what is next to this permanent ordered disorder in his forthcoming book on Karachi. Historically, the role of illicit trade, the criminalization of Karachi is essential elements of the growth of this city, he said. In this regard he compared Karachi with Mumbai which has similarity with Karachi in the sense of social leadership. According to him violence in Karachi is not existential but it is instrumental. What makes Karachi different from Mumbai is the kind of violence which escalated in Karachi with the arms influx after Afghan war, i.e. modern weapons which are used for violence. He also talked about the transformation of conflict after the rise of religious parties in Karachi. Islami Jamiat Talaba is now much stronger militarily than the student faction of Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). The thing which also makes Karachi different from Mumbai is the scale of...

American Consul General in Peshawar, Robert Reed and his delegation at CRSS on Feb 20th

American Consul General in Peshawar, Robert Reed and his delegation at CRSS on Feb 20th to discuss issues of mutual interest.

Consultative Workshop on Social Cohesion and factors that divide or connect the society

Pakistan Muslim League (N) leader Ahsan Iqbal, Daniyal Aziz, former chairman of National Reconstruction Bureau and others at the consultative workshop (Feb 19) on Social Cohesion and factors that divide or connect the society.The workshop was part of the UNICEF-CRSS nationwide conflict analysis.

Weekly Data Sheet – February 8-14, 2013

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Weekly Report – February 8-14, 2013

The raging wave of violence remained steady across Pakistan during the current week. Meanwhile, the spate of ethno-political violence in the largest metropolis, Karachi, surged significantly during the week, wherein 58 persons (28 were in the last week) perished. Also, the wave of bomb blasts across the country, spree of target killings and the recovery of mutilated dead bodies-continued to mount death toll during the week. The data collected through10 newspapers that CRSS uses as the source, indicates that as many as 182 persons lost their lives as a result of 83 violent incidents across the country during the reported week (for detailssee data sheet).The violent clashes also left 110 people injured. Like in case of preceding weeks, civilians bore the major brunt of the ongoing spate of violence across Pakistan during the current week, as civilians accounted foralmost 62 percent of the total death toll across Pakistan. Numerically, 113 civilians lost their lives and 58 others were wounded in violent clashes of various kinds across the country. The second highest number of fatalities was ofmilitants, wherein 51 militants got killed under different circumstances. Furthermore, one CIA operated drone strike was also reported during the week, killing eight suspected militants in North Waziristan Agency (FATA). Meanwhile thesabotage campaign by the militants continued to demolish state infrastructure and undermine stability as militants blew up three public schools and a cellular tower in KP. Meanwhile, 12 sectarian attacksleft 11 dead in Karachi and one in KP, this week. Moreover, the loss of lives due to target killings increased by 17 percent, (33 percent of the total dead against last week 16 percent) during the current week. Overall, 64 percent of the total violent attacks wereoftarget killingin nature(seethe pie chart below). Furthermore, data underlines that of the total 53 incidents of target killings; 79 percent took place in Karachi alone, decimating 43...