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Back to brinkmanship

We are back to gauche brinkmanship. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called for "a new beginning" in relations with India on August 13. No way, came the brash snub from New Delhi within a couple of hours. "India will not hold talks with Pakistan until matters of cross-border firing and army are not fully resolved," declared the Indian Foreign Office spokesman Syed Akbaruddin. He also demanded action against Hafiz Saeed. Hafiz Saeed, who is a relentless opponent of talks with India, and is perennially thankful to the Sharif brothers "for their monetary benevolence towards his educational institutions" (he made statement in his interview with Dunya TV shortly before Eid), stands at number two in a January 2002 list of the people most wanted by India. Maulana Masood Azhar, founder of the Bahawalpur-based Jaish-e-Mohammad, topped that list. After the November 2008 Mumbai attacks, Hafiz Saeed may have upstaged Masood Azhar. He is the founder of the defunct Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which now operates under the name Jamaatud Dawa. This singular focus on Saeed and the LeT is the primary reason for gridlocked India-Pakistan relations. In fact, the predominant Indian narrative on Pakistan revolves around Saeed and his organization's "nexus" with the Pakistani military establishment. Both are inextricably linked, so believe most Indians, and thus demand punitive action against the army. Most Indian parliamentarians and retired officials insist that the Pakistani army or the ISI orchestrated the execution of Indian soldiers in the Poonch sector. Without khaki support, they implied, such attacks were not possible. That is why the incident has practically brought all the back channel talks to a grinding halt amid deafening noises and protests against Pakistan. Participation in three live debates on two mainstream Indian TV channels left me in little doubt that if left to the media and the opposition members of Lok Sabha, they would already have declared war on Pakistan. Almost every...

UN Chief Urges Caution in Drone Deployment

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Tuesday (August 13) categorically stated that drones should be used only for collection of information in accordance with the international laws. Addressing the inauguration ceremony of International Centre for Peace and Stability at the National University of Science and Technology in Islamabad, the UN Secretary General said every effort should be made to avoid civilian casualties in the use of armed drones, an issue that Moon's special envoy Ben Emmerson is also working on, also with the support of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Ban ki Moon expressed his views on drones to lots cheers in the audience because of the raging public debate over the contentious nature of the attacks. The US justifies it as a useful means to hunting down terrorists that represent threat to the United States and its allies. Pakistanis reject the strikes as a violation of their country's sovereignty. They also point to the over 3,400 deaths that have occurred off at least 257 such attacks since 2006. The United States has drastically scaled back the number of drone attacks against militants in Pakistan and limited strikes to high-value targets in response to growing criticism of the program in the country, The Associated Press (AP) reported. According to the report, the reduction in strikes has 'temporarily appeased Pakistan powerful generals but some US officials are still worried about push back from the new government which wants to end the attacks altogether.' US officials have stressed that the CIA will maintain a significant presence in Kabul and armed drones will continue to patrol Pakistan tribal belt after US withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Post had reported on July 26. Although the CIA has scaled down the use of unmanned aerial vehicles against Al-Qaeda terrorists, the issue continues to stoke resentment with Pakistan. An Associated Press(AP) report ´ quoting data from a US-based think-tank ´ had...

Al Qaeda’s New Wave of Terror: Prison Breaks

On July 31, 2013, an Islamist website posted a 22-minute audio recording of a message by al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri promising that al Qaeda would spare no effort to free all its prisoners held at Guantâ”œÃnamo Bay. He said, 'the (hunger) strike by our brothers at Guantanamo unmasks the true ugly face of (the United States of) America'. Though he did not specify what tactics al Qaeda would use to free these prisoners, he named three prisoners who were at the highest on their priority list that they aim to free from Guantanamo Bay. These are; Omar Abdel Rahman, Aafia Siddiqui and Khaled Sheikh Mohammed.[1] The authenticity of the audio recording has not been verified yet, however, the recent massive jailbreaks in Iraq, Libya and Pakistan all occurring within days of one another, freeing hundreds of hardened al Qaeda militants points to the seriousness of al-Zawahiri warning. On the 21st and 22nd of July, over 500 prisoners broke free from two Iraqi prisons, Abu Ghraib and al-Taji. Suicide bombers driving cars loaded with explosives blasted their way through the gates of the prison into the compound while many armed insurgents attacked the prison guards with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades. Some suicide bombers also barged into the prison on foot to facilitate their fellow militants in freeing the prisoners while several militants remained stationed near the main road to cause delay in the arrival of security reinforcements. A day later on July 23, 2013, al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) claimed responsibility for the attack under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. The leader of AQI claimed the attack was their greatest achievement in the 'Breaking the Walls' campaign launched by him in July 2012. Surely, the attack demonstrates the level of AQI tactical capabilities in planning, resourcing and carrying out such dangerous and violent assaults involving year-long preparations.[2] This was followed by a massive jailbreak in Libya only five days...

Al Qaeda's New Wave of Terror: Prison Breaks

On July 31, 2013, an Islamist website posted a 22-minute audio recording of a message by al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri promising that al Qaeda would spare no effort to free all its prisoners held at Guantâ”œÃnamo Bay. He said, 'the (hunger) strike by our brothers at Guantanamo unmasks the true ugly face of (the United States of) America'. Though he did not specify what tactics al Qaeda would use to free these prisoners, he named three prisoners who were at the highest on their priority list that they aim to free from Guantanamo Bay. These are; Omar Abdel Rahman, Aafia Siddiqui and Khaled Sheikh Mohammed.[1] The authenticity of the audio recording has not been verified yet, however, the recent massive jailbreaks in Iraq, Libya and Pakistan all occurring within days of one another, freeing hundreds of hardened al Qaeda militants points to the seriousness of al-Zawahiri warning. On the 21st and 22nd of July, over 500 prisoners broke free from two Iraqi prisons, Abu Ghraib and al-Taji. Suicide bombers driving cars loaded with explosives blasted their way through the gates of the prison into the compound while many armed insurgents attacked the prison guards with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades. Some suicide bombers also barged into the prison on foot to facilitate their fellow militants in freeing the prisoners while several militants remained stationed near the main road to cause delay in the arrival of security reinforcements. A day later on July 23, 2013, al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) claimed responsibility for the attack under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. The leader of AQI claimed the attack was their greatest achievement in the 'Breaking the Walls' campaign launched by him in July 2012. Surely, the attack demonstrates the level of AQI tactical capabilities in planning, resourcing and carrying out such dangerous and violent assaults involving year-long preparations.[2] This was followed by a massive jailbreak in Libya only five days...

Al Qaeda's New Wave of Terror: Prison Breaks

On July 31, 2013, an Islamist website posted a 22-minute audio recording of a message by al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri promising that al Qaeda would spare no effort to free all its prisoners held at Guantâ”œÃnamo Bay. He said, 'the (hunger) strike by our brothers at Guantanamo unmasks the true ugly face of (the United States of) America'. Though he did not specify what tactics al Qaeda would use to free these prisoners, he named three prisoners who were at the highest on their priority list that they aim to free from Guantanamo Bay. These are; Omar Abdel Rahman, Aafia Siddiqui and Khaled Sheikh Mohammed.[1] The authenticity of the audio recording has not been verified yet, however, the recent massive jailbreaks in Iraq, Libya and Pakistan all occurring within days of one another, freeing hundreds of hardened al Qaeda militants points to the seriousness of al-Zawahiri warning. On the 21st and 22nd of July, over 500 prisoners broke free from two Iraqi prisons, Abu Ghraib and al-Taji. Suicide bombers driving cars loaded with explosives blasted their way through the gates of the prison into the compound while many armed insurgents attacked the prison guards with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades. Some suicide bombers also barged into the prison on foot to facilitate their fellow militants in freeing the prisoners while several militants remained stationed near the main road to cause delay in the arrival of security reinforcements. A day later on July 23, 2013, al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) claimed responsibility for the attack under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. The leader of AQI claimed the attack was their greatest achievement in the 'Breaking the Walls' campaign launched by him in July 2012. Surely, the attack demonstrates the level of AQI tactical capabilities in planning, resourcing and carrying out such dangerous and violent assaults involving year-long preparations.[2] This was followed by a massive jailbreak in Libya only five days...

Breaking the walls

The brazen Taliban attack on a jail in Dera Ismail Khan on July 29 to free their comrades has raised important questions about the preparedness of our security apparatus for a war that involves relentless attacks on key state institutions. Top Taliban men were freed in a similar attack on Bannu jail in April 2012. The recent raid on Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq (July 22), another one on Tasfirat prison in Saddam Hussein's hometown Tikrit (September 2012), and an equally brazen attack on the Kandahar jail in Afghanistan (April 2011) probably serve as a big motivation for insurgents, who embarrass and de-motivate the security forces and free hundreds of their men in such attacks. The July 29 attack is just one in a long list of daring security breaches that follow the May 2008 peace accord with militants in Swat. The deal fell flat, and insurgency grew in intensity until the Swat and South Waziristan military operations in May and October 2009. Since then, militants have made at least 14 surprise raids on various targets, including the Sri Lankan Cricket team in Lahore (March 2009), Manawan Police Training Academy in Lahore (March and October 2009), the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi (October 2009), PNS Mehran air base in Karachi (May 2011), Kamra air base (Aug 2012), and the Peshawar airport (December 2012). The insurgents also carried out major attacks on targets belonging to the ISI - a former ally - in Peshawar, Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, and Sukkur. All these attacks bear the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) signature - a multi-pronged attack involving several terrorists aimed at penetrating the target as deep as possible. The LeT made similar attacks in Indian Kashmir, and several interrogations have revealed many of the perpetrators had been affiliated with the LeT in the past. Most of them broke away from the group and fell into the laps of Al Qaeda and Taliban after finding themselves in ideological conflict with the state of Pakistan, which they believe is...

Pakistan Conflict Tracker Monthly Report – June 2013

No Respite in Terror The month of June dawned with lots of hopes and expectations for the people of Pakistan as the new government was to take oath during this month and to offer peace, good governance, and rule of law in the country. The hope of peace got shattered when a drone attack ´ 11th in 2013 thus far - killed second-in-command Taliban leader, Wali-ur-Rehman Mehsud on 8 June. This prompted the Taliban to revoke their earlier offer for peace talks, and instead avowed avenge for Mehsud death. Soon thereafter, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) whose chairman Imran Khan had been supporting the idea of negotiation with the Taliban, tabled a bill in the parliament, asking the US to stop the drone strikes. This resolution in the provincial parliament, however, could not prevent two PTI MPA from becoming victims of TTP attacks. Target killings and acts of terrorism remained the most recurring causes of casualties in the country during June, totaling about 616 deaths and 535 wounded, a figure close to what it was during the last month. Among the victims were 33 women and 6 children as well. This is the highest number for female and children that fell victim to indiscriminate terrorism in one month. Terrorism in Balochistan took another sinister turn when alleged Baloch nationalist militants attacked the residency of the country founder Mohammad Ali Jinnah, followed by a suicide attack on a bus carrying students of the solo women university in Baluchistan. Soon thereafter, on June 21st, terrorists executed at least eight foreign mountaineers at a height of 4,200 meters. They also beheaded one of the Jirga members who had gone for a meeting with militants on the request of prime minister Nawaz Sharif PML (N) party. Target killings of political leaders and activists continued during this month particularly in southern Sindh province. All these events and other facts reported in the national newspapers are collected to make this report as informative and factual as...

Towards an Urban Geopolitical Analysis of Violence in Lyari

The Lyari district of Karachi has been in the headlines for quite some time. Politically protected criminal reportedly operate out of this ramshackle district. Considered one of the most volatile districts in violence-hit Karachi in southern Pakistan, Lyari has recently witnessed pitched battles between members of alleged criminal syndicates and paramilitary forces. CRSS visiting research fellow herewith provides a brief insight into the embattled Lyari. If Lyari is nostalgically remembered as a microism of Pakistan (Bhutto, 2010) then perhaps the problem of recurring violence in Lyari is also a microism of Pakistan problems. Every now and again, Lyari becomes a hotbed of violence. Images of residents battling with government security forces, using sophisticated weapons shock the nation. Countless TV shows, news articles, and analysts try to make sense of what is going on. They all come to the same conclusion: The criminal/ethno-political/mafia nexus has gained incredible strength in Lyari, and the situation is beyond ordinary law and order forces. How can these groups be disbanded if security forces can–t enter the ¿enclave–? How can these groups be overpowered if they are better armed than the police? And how can they be negotiated with if they are aware of their status as lucrative militant wings for political advantage? These questions beg to be answered through a geopolitical analysis of this conflict. Looking deeper towards the political geography of Lyari is necessary to understand that this ¿new– form of military urbanism is a thing of our own making. A multi-ethnic enclave, divided into distinct pockets, Lyari is an ordinary low income settlement situated strategically between the Lyari Expressway and Mauripur Road. Within Lyari, there are complex rules of accessibility- where you can go depends on who you are. The different neighbourhoods are infiltrated by ¿gangs–, and for many outsiders (including police and security forces), they remain ¿no-go areas–....

If Pakistan acquires drone technology from the US

(CRSS Team Member Farooq Yousuf , who is currently studying public policy at Willy Brandt School, Erfurt, Germany, contributed this article to the Express Tribune) Regular militant attacks have now become a norm in Pakistan. The situation on the ground suggests that tracking and hunting militants is difficult, whereas for militants, carrying out their activities at will is easier. In terms of numbers, drones have killed more militants in FATA compared to on ground operations, but these drones do not conform with legal parameters set by the Pakistani constitution. A few weeks ago, I wrote ablog on dronesand the need for the Pakistan government and the military to come out clean on the issue. On July 8, 2013,it wasreportedthat the Pakistani government is considering asking the US officiallyfor the drone technology as a diplomatic effort to placate the people of the tribal areas as well resolve the prevailing legal issues connected with the CIA-led drone attacks. As interesting as this may sound, the probability for such an occurrence is highly unlikely. But the real question however remains, will the United States be willing to transfer the drone technology to Pakistan, and even if it does, would the use of drones by Pakistan instead of the US lower anti-US sentiment? For both these questions, I can only guess the answer to be a negative and there are a numerous reasons as to why this is so. Pakistan will not target all militants. First and foremost, the United States enjoys virtual monopoly over drone technology; the US and Israel are known to be the most successful manufacturers of predator drones to date. Although countries like Russia, China, India, and even Pakistan are trying to make combat-capable drones, and even claim to possess them, their effectiveness if yet to be seen. For that reason, the US may not be willing to risk imparting crucial information regarding its sophisticated technology. Another reason ´ which is one of the major hindrances for Pakistan...

Terrorist do not favour any party

A comparison of statistics for the months of May and June makes it abundantly clear that violence under various covers continues to ake lives ´ regardless of who governs the country. The number of deaths off violence during the month of May was as high as 634. In June these casualties declined slightly to 619 ( compared to roughly 500 deaths off violence in April). The surge in casualties of various acts of terror in May and June also disproves the widely-held notion that the terrorist syndicates led by Tehreeke Taliban Pakistan (TTP) were soft on the Pakistan Muslim League-N and the Pakistan Tehreeke Insaf (PTI). Much before the May 11 general elections, various socio-political segments of the society ´ led by PPP and ANP - pilloried these two parties for being pro Taliban for the simple reason that these two parties favoured dialogue with militants. But the painstakingly collected data compiled by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) clearly belies these notions and point to an altogether different reality i.e. subversion and terrorism disguised in ethnicity, nationalism and religiosity continues to consume precious lives and piling socio-economic misery on multiple flashpoints inside Pakistan. Karachi, for instance, topped the list of incidents and deaths in May and June, with 210 and 222 casualties in the two months respectively. Fata lost 182 and 101 people in the two months respectively, while for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa these figures stood at 134 and 146 respectively. Cumulatively, the human loss in FATA and KP (northwestern regions) in May recorded 283 deaths and 280 in June ´ a whopping 563 for the two months. This also included the cold-blooded execution of ten foreign tourists at the Nanga Parbat heights on June 21st, an attack that hurt Pakistan interests and image like never before. The story of Balochistan is not different either; at least 88 deaths in May and 126 in June ´ mostly in suicide attacks targeting shia Muslims, civilian and...