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Pakistan Conflict Tracker Monthly Report – October 2014
This report is an attempt to analyze the overall law and order situation in the country and look at the challenges that keep emerging from the acts of violence by various criminal and political non-state actors following topics are selected to have a comprehensive coverage of the subject being discussed: Casualties of violence in the country during October 2014 Casualties of violence in Balochistan Casualties of violence in FATA Casualties of violence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Casualties of violence in Punjab Casualties of violence in Sindh Sectarian violence in Pakistan This report is based on open source information, largely reports as they appeared in national newspapers including (The News, Express Tribune, Dawn, Daily Times, and the Frontier Post) during the month of October. All efforts are taken to make this report as informative and factual as possible. Errors and omissions are always a possibility in such statistical work. However, such mistakes do not grossly affect the basic objectives and the ultimate analysis of this report. CRSS will appreciate receiving comments that the readers may have on this report. Report prepared by: Mohammad Nafees Senior Research Fellow Center for Research and Security Studies NOTE: Readers can approach CRSS for source of any information included in the report. Please send your request to: (mail@crss.pk or mohammad.nafees@yahoo.com) OVERVIEW Fatalities from violence in the country during October, 2014: Deaths = 592 Injured = 295 The incidents of violence and counter-violence in the country left 592 persons dead and 295 wounded during the month of October 2014 (Refer table 1 and graph 1) with FATA having the highest number of fatalities followed by Sindh, KP, Balochistan, Punjab, AJK, and GB (Refer graph 2). Table 1: Deaths from violence in provinces – October, 2014: Graph 1: Deaths from violence in Pakistan – October, 2014: Graph 2: Deaths from violence in...
Al-Qaeda’s Resurgence: Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent
On September 6, 2014, when national Defense Day was being celebrated across Pakistan, four officers of Pakistan Navy entered the Pakistan Naval Ships (PNS) Dockyard, located near Karachi harbor and attempted to take over warship PNS Zulfiqar. The terrorists planned to hijack the heavily armed destroyer of Pakistan Navy and then to move towards international waters in order to attack US or Indian Naval vessels. The carefully planned attack failed miserably. All terrorists (in-service and retired naval officers of Pakistan Navy) were subdued and arrested by the security forces from the ship and some who managed to escape were later arrested near Quetta while they were trying to flee to Afghanistan. A week later on September 11, Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) Amir, Asim Umar claimed responsibility of attack. (The Express Tribune, September 11. 2014) Days earlier, Al-Qaeda Amir Ayman al-Zawahiri announced the establishment of Al-Qaeda’s newest branch AQIS. Zawahiri in his 55-minute video message, while celebrating the formation of new chapter of Al-Qaeda describes AQIS as, “This entity was not established today, but it is the fruit of a blessed effort for more than two years to gather the mujahideen in the Indian subcontinent into a single entity to be with the main group, Qaedat al-Jihad, from the soldiers of the Islamic Emirate and its triumphant emir, Allah permitting, Emir of the Believers Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid.” (Message translated by SITE Intelligence Group, September 2014) Parallel to this development Al-Qaeda has also inaugurated its new English language magazine “Resurgence”. The first issue of Resurgence (released October 2014) primarily focuses on Indian Subcontinent, with Al-Qaeda Central’s official spokesperson Adam Gadahn penning the cover article defining the Al-Qaeda objectives. Gadahn wrote, “America considers Islam to be its main enemy and a threat to the foundations of its existence. It has waged an incessant war against Islam and...
The PM’s China visit
The prime minister’s recent visit to China yielded a rich harvest of agreements and contracts between the two sides. The bulk of these agreements centred on ‘investment’ by Chinese companies in energy projects in Pakistan. Not surprisingly, the government’s PR team went into overdrive extolling how the agreements would be a “game-changer” for the country. Greater investment interest by China in Pakistan is indeed welcome and long overdue. The fact that out of a total of $101 billion outward FDI by China in 2013, only $90 million found its way into Pakistan is a reflection of how Pakistan has failed till now to leverage its unique and special relationship with its great north-eastern neighbour. While bilateral trade volume has soared since the signing of the FTA between the two countries, with the deficit heavily skewed against Pakistan, a more meaningful engagement had failed to materialise. This is as good a time as any for Pakistan to woo strategic investments by China. As amply demonstrated by the recent APEC summit hosted by China and the developments on its sidelines, China has been craftily using its economic powerhouse status and riches to project ‘soft power’ and increase its economic and political footprint from Africa to Asia. This is as good a time as any for Pakistan to woo strategic investments by China. The main planks of the Chinese strategy so far have been: — Strategic acquisition of natural resources, mainly in Africa — Liberal lending via trade and investment credits by China’s Ex-Im Bank. (In fact, in the last two years alone, the Chinese Ex-Im Bank has lent $670bn — more than the entire amount loaned by the US Ex-Im Bank in its entire existence). — Laying the groundwork for a new global as well as regional financial architecture to rival the West’s hold of the Bretton Woods institutions. This includes setting up of the so-called BRICS Bank (the New Development Bank), the recently launched Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, and a separate...
Growing Pakistan, China and US Synergy on Afganistan
Pakistan went up in arms with the release of Pentagon’s six-monthly report which restated the not-so-new US narrative on Pakistan, underscoring the “proxies” being used across the western and eastern borders of the country. The ministry of foreign affairs went to the extent of handing over a protest note to the US ambassador in Islamabad. Much of the national reaction and international media projection of the Pentagon report in fact sounded clearly out of synch with some telling trends in the multinational focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan. As the US and foreign troops thin down to about 12,500 by December, convergences among US, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan become increasingly visible. These convergences also belittle some of the conclusions drawn in the Pentagon report. Since the US remains the elephant in the room, let us look at how the Af-Pak envoy Danial Feldmann and Gen Joseph Anderson, the ISAF commander in Afghanistan, look at the situation. In a talk at the Atlantic Council in Washington (Washington, DC, October 14, 2014) Feldmann made some statements which marked a significant departure from Washington’s view on Pakistan. Some excerpts from his speech: “But Pakistan has also suffered dramatically, over 50,000 Pakistani lives have been lost as a result of terrorism… Pakistan’s economy has suffered dramatically. Growth prospects have fallen. In recent times, inward investment and exports have declined, as security concerns have compounded the energy deficit… It is no secret that for the last decade, the American approach to the region has been filtered through the lens of our mission in Afghanistan. Perhaps no relationship has been more affected than Pakistan… It is a misconception that we will not be there. We will be there in significant numbers. The combat operations will stop. International community’s assistance and commitment will continue for a long term in Afghanistan” he said. November began with unusual activity in Beijing “There is no...
Don’t miss Exclusive PTV show about “Grassroots Reform Implementation” on Sunday, Nov 16, 2014, at 6:00 pm on PTV News
Topic: Grassroots Reform Implementation Guests: Zar Ali Khan Afridi, Tribal NGOs Consortium, FATA Reforms Movement Arsala Hoti PML N, Privatization Commission. Member FATA Committee Theme: In this program Political Parties Order and FCR amendments from 2011 would be discussed. The important questions will be raised like; What are the lessons learned from the May 2013 general elections in FATA? Have political parties been permitted to operate freely? Are the FCR amendments being implemented at the grass root level? The program would focus on details of amendments and hurdles in implementation. It will highlight potential benefits of amendments, if implemented. Meanwhile, it would also describe new ‘appeal’ process including FATA Tribunal and problems with its implementation. If not implemented, what is the impediment, who is responsible for non-implementation? Discuss examples of non-implementation and explain the process for filing claims if FCR is not implemented properly FCR is one issue in FATA, but other issues apart from FCR can be addressed separately like Local Government, for example, is not dependent on FCR and can be implemented with no further FCR changes or repeal. Same is for amending Article 247.
A friendlier Afghanistan?
The government of the new Afghan President Dr Ashraf Ghani is in the process of formulating its policy towards Pakistan, but that will take time since the cabinet hasn’t been formed yet and the powers of Chief Executive Officer Dr Abdullah, who like his late leader Ahmad Shah Masood had serious differences with Pakistan in the past, aren’t yet clear. Though Pakistan in the recent past has made renewed efforts to befriend Abdullah and the non-Pashtun leaders of the erstwhile Northern Alliance, overcoming animosities accumulated over the years won’t be easy. These leaders and other members of the Afghan ruling elite are suspicious of Pakistan’s motives in Afghanistan due to its past and present links with the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network. However, the distrust is mutual as Pakistan’s civil and military rulers also have complaints with regard to the growing sanctuaries of fugitive Pakistani Taliban and Baloch separatists in Afghanistan and the increased Indian presence in the country. Former Afghan president Hamid Karzai’s Pakistan policy hasn’t undergone any real change yet, though Ghani unlike Karzai has refrained from criticising Pakistan. He is hoping to start a new and friendly era of relations with Pakistan with China’s help and this reason, as well as his wish to attract further Chinese investment in Afghanistan, prompted him to undertake his official visit to China after having visited Saudi Arabia earlier to perform Umra in keeping with a promise he had made during his presidential election campaign. Like the new Afghan government, Pakistan too is in the process of exploring possibilities of heralding a new phase of better relations with Afghanistan. It would like to leave behind the era of unfriendly ties between the two neighbouring Muslim countries during the almost 13 years of Karzai rule. Even in his parting remarks before handing over charge to Ghani, Karzai had spoken about his inability to get cooperation from Islamabad to restore peace in...
China seeks greater role in Afghanistan with peace talk push
China has proposed setting up a forum to restart stalled peace talks between Afghanistan and Taliban insurgents, the latest sign Beijing wants more of a say in its troubled neighbor's affairs as it frets about its own Islamist militant threat. Documents seen by Reuters show that China put forward a proposal for a "peace and reconciliation forum" that Afghan officials said would gather representatives from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the Taliban command. The Chinese plan, discussed at a recent meeting of nations taking part in the "Istanbul Process" on Afghanistan's future, comes as U.S.-led combat troops prepare to withdraw from Afghanistan after 13 years of war. Despite the military's efforts to rout the Taliban and al Qaeda, militants remain a major force, launching regular attacks on military and civilian targets, and previous attempts to bring them into the political mainstream have failed. There is little to suggest so far that China will succeed where others have not, but its willingness to revive a bid to broker peace previously attempted by the United States indicates its role in Afghanistan is growing. China's proposal has not yet been formally announced because Afghan President Ashraf Ghani wants more time to see whether the Taliban and Pakistan are willing to join in, according to his aides. "This was a very, very important first step," said Daoud Sultanzoy, a former presidential candidate and now adviser to Ghani. "Once all the pieces are in place ... at a mature and opportune time there will be declarations." China says it is not seeking to fill a void left by the U.S. year-end withdrawal, and it already has a footprint in Afghanistan with financial support for counter-narcotics training and agreements to exploit oil and copper reserves. Washington will also continue to be a major donor to Afghanistan and thousands of soldiers are expected to remain there in training and counter-terrorism roles. China and Afghanistan are linked only by a tiny and...
Do not miss Exclusive PTV show ‘Hum Bhi Pakistan’ about “Justice and Separation of Power” on Wednesday Nov 12, 2014 at 6:00 pm on PTV News
Topic Justice and Separation of power Guests: 1. Advocate Ijaz Mohmand FATA Lawyers Forum 2. Hashim Baber, Qaumi Watan Party (QWP), FATA committee member Theme The Show will discuss extension of High Court and Supreme Court Jurisdiction to FATA. It will also discuss extensive powers of the political agent (PA) and the lack of checks on that power. The PA holds judicial, executive and electoral powers in FATA, unlike anywhere else in Pakistan. What should be done about this? Is this a bad thing for the people of FATA? What are the pros and cons of extending the Pakistan superior judiciary to FATA? What are the legal mechanisms for moving forward with such a proposal? Should the constitution be amended to make this change or could the president simply sign an executive order? What is stopping this reform from moving forward? How does the lack of checks on the PA powers and lack of access to higher judiciary impact the human rights situation for FATA people? What are some real examples of how justice has been denied? Is the argument that we must first wait for peace a valid argument? The April 2014, Peshawar High Court judgment on the matter would be discussed. Was the PHC reference to government (parliament via Law Ministry) taken seriously? Why has parliament not taken up the issue on the floor as a result? How can the nation allow this lack of justice to persist when it blatantly contradicts other articles of the same constitution? Whose action is needed to rectify this situation?
Thoughts and Ideology of Abu Mohammad al-Maqdisi: the Godfather of ISIS
The sudden surge of Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) has shocked everyone. The ultra-radical Islamist organization tricked the experts and practitioners in camouflaging and keeping a low profile for a number of years especially after 2010. The rise of ISIS is now the most-talked-about and most concerning issue as the number of Islamist militants joining the organization’s fold is increasing by everyday so as its sphere of influence with more and more territories coming under its control. Two civil war ravaged countries Iraq and Syria do not appear to have the muscles to confront the zealots of ISIS. Interestingly there is a widespread misconception that the ISIS is a new Islamist jihadist militia emerged after the injustices of Shia-dominated Iraqi government of former President Noor ul Maliki. After proclaiming Islamic Caliphate over the territories it has carved out of Iraq and Syria (almost the size of Belgium) the jihadist outfit is nor vying for power in the whole of Levant and Arabian peninsula. US Secretary of Defense described ISIS as, “as sophisticated and well-funded as any group that we have seen[1].” Its ranks are swelling with both militant Islamist young men and women joining in from all over the world and as one official of the US U.S. Special Operations Command said, "They're incredible fighters. ISIS teams in many places use special operations TTPs, tactics, techniques and procedures.[2]" Smashing the misconception and myths about the ISIS is the primary objective of this paper. Taking into consideration the roots of ISIS vis-à-vis it becomes imperative to understand the teachings of ISIS ideologue Issam al Barqawi alias Abu Mohammad al-Maqdisi. ISIS’s original name was Tawheed wal Jihad which was founded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2002 after the US invasion of Iraq, Maqdisi ideologically mentored ISIS’s founder and groomed his Salafist views. The Jihadist Godfather There is no such entity as worldwide network of jihadist movement. Al-Qaeda...
Do not miss Exclusive PTV show ‘Hum Bhi Pakistan’ about “Reforms Moving Forward” on Saturday Nov 08, 2014 at 6:00 pm on PTV News
Topic Reforms Moving Forward Guests: 1. Akhunzada Chattan PPP 2. Advocate Sangeen Khan Theme What are the successes of the FATA reforms movement? What are the ongoing challenges? Is the KP governor’s new FATA Reforms Commission a promising step? Who are the responsible actors for moving the reforms agenda forward? What are the best ways to include all relevant stakeholders—and especially FATA people themselves—in the reform process? What do the guests envision for FATA in the coming year? Are significant reforms possible? Status quo supporters argue that reforms must wait for peace first. Is this any way to move forward and progress? Does the responsibility lie with the KP governor, the president of Pakistan, National Assembly and Senate? Or all of the above, what is stopping the parliament from presenting a constitutional amendment bill to amend Article 247? If all the political parties agree to the 11-point reforms agenda, what is stopping them from moving ahead to amend the constitution for FATA? The program explains the details of Article 247 and the different changes to it that are being recommended. Why these changes are being recommended and that if Article 247 is correctly amended, then National Assembly and Senate would have the power to abolish FCR, implement local bodies, and extend High Court jurisdiction and anything else they can agree on in parliament.
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I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.