Current Projects

Fighting terror & calamity

What is the most effective way of fighting irregular forces of terrorism and extremism or even reacting to calamities? Is it proactive mediation and reliance on the tools of soft power i.e., good and merit-based governance as a long-term strategy, or is it through the hard power of the state alone? Does the hard power provide lasting victory over unregulated evil? Can a state succeed against crime, calamity and terror if its governance structures are cluttered in a reactive mode? Also, can a country make the right decisions if most of the political discourse on national and international issues is usually dictated more by emotions and less by rationalty. The Pakistan government’s response to the Yemen crisis offers one example of a state that lacks proactive intuition and only reacts when surrounded by crisis or hit by calamity. Most countries — including the United States, the UK, Germany — acted well ahead of time and had their citizens evacuated from Yemen without allowing fear and panic to perpetuate. Sadly, some 2,500 Pakistani citizens, as of March 30, still await evacuation and this reflects either the willful oversight of an imminent crisis or wishful optimism of the Pakistani diplomatic mission in Sanaa. Did it issue any caution or advisory, at least to those citizens who were closer to the advancing Houthi militias? The trouble in Yemen had been brewing for several years and this simmering conflict turned into a regional conflict as Saudi Arabia initiated strikes on Houthi rebels. The government apparently lost no time in blindly committing military support to the Saudi Arabian monarch during the prime minister’s specially organised tour to the Kingdom in March. The evacuation of Pakistanis stranded in Yemen was probably an afterthought. Pakistani political parties, intelligensia and the civil society at large, on the other hand, have loudly begun opposing their country’s active participation in the Saudi-led war on Yemen. They want the government to...

Annual Security Report – 2014

The year 2014 began with a resolve of holding negotiations with the militants and it ended with a consensus of eliminating extremism categorically.  This was the result of the two horrific game-changing incidents. These were brazen attacks on Karachi Airport and the Army Public School in Peshawar. A decade of fighting against a nameless and faceless monster has finally reached a point where traditional blame gaming, rhetoric, and lack of political will have lost their credence. Pakistan, at least on paper, emerged with an unwavering determination to eliminate this enemy permanently. Significant difference of opinion still exists as to who is actually pulling the strings behind these elements. For some, it is some kind of conspiracy[1] or the domain of foreign hands[2], whereas for others it is the ideological paradigm of the country that keeps breeding and nurturing this monster. This annual report analyzes violence in Pakistan empirically, using factual data and the pattern of violence drawn from the incidents of crimes committed in the country. The subjects to be covered in this report are: All assessments and reviews are based on the data collected from reports appearing in the local press.  Efforts are made to maintain the data as accurate as possible within the available resources. Errors and omissions, as always a possibility in all statistical works including this one, are expected.  However, such mistakes do not grossly affect the overall outcome of this report. This report has been prepared by Mohammad Nafees, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS, and edited by Zeeshan Salahuddin, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS. Readers can approach CRSS for the source of any information included in the report. Please send your request to mail@crss.pk. Casualties of Violence in the Country - 2014 Pakistan faced a range of internal security issues in 2014, resulting in a wide variety of forms of violence. These include terrorism, militant attacks, sectarian violence, crime, target...

Tentacles of terror

Terrorists and criminal gangs have developed deep connections in various arms of government. Are Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif set to undo many of the unpleasant policies of their predecessors? Is the ostensible civil-military consensus behind the March 11 raid on MQM headquarters Nine Zero and their display of unity at the Pakistan Day parade on March 23 a sign of the dawn of a new era, or will it just be another phase of tactical realignment spearheaded by the General Headquarters in Pakistan’s chequered history? Unfortunately, the public views the GHQ as being more assertive and predominant in an extremely volatile situation arising out of political incompetence, insensitivity to public concern, and above all, patronage of rampant crime by political elites. Back in September 2013, these circumstances had prompted the Supreme Court to direct law-enforcement agencies to eliminate the militant wings of political parties operating in Karachi. The Rangers did launch a clean-up operation, but the political will it required to be effective was still missing. On the face of it, the apex committee formed early this year provided the much-needed political ownership to what eventually led to the raid on the MQM headquarters – the culmination of the operation launched in late 2013 indeed. Intelligence outfits had gradually and increasingly zeroed in on the MQM for its role in criminal activities in the Karachi. Considerable mapping preceded before the rangers eventually dared to break through 21 barriers around Nine Zero. The ensuing claims by the government, allegations by the PPP maverick Dr Zufliqar Mirza, and a statement by death-row convict Saulat Mirza, finally blew the lid off an unpleasant “open secret”; the direct or indirect role of major political parties in organized crime that had emerged as the single largest existential threat to Karachi. Security forces, including the corrupt police and the mighty Rangers, also...

Discord within Transatlantic alliance: fact and fiction

So here’s the fiction: America and Europe stand united against the “rest of the world”. The transatlantic alliance is strong, solid and a bulwark against the machinations of China and the world’s other emerging nations. Washington and Brussels are like-minded, like-thinking entities which see eye to eye on almost everything. Together, they can still rule the world. Perhaps in the 20th century — but no longer. Here are the facts: the world has changed from unipolar to multi-polar or even “no-polar”. For all its military might, the US no longer rules the world. For proof, look no further than the way Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu is obstructing progress on US-Iran nuclear talks. And here are some more facts: America and the EU are divided over the death penalty, Guantanamo Bay, illegal renditions, the use of torture and the revelations of spying by the National Security Agency as revealed by Edward Snowden. They disagree over how to deal with Russia and Ukraine. And while America sees China mainly as a strategic competitor, Europe is happy to work with Beijing on tackling many 21st century challenges. Certainly, there are some points of convergence. Significantly, negotiations are underway on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), seen by many as the last attempt by a declining West to impose its economic rule-making model on a watching world. But even as they seek agreement on TTIP, many European states are posing the BIGGEST challenge to the US by deciding to join the Chinese-led, Chinese-inspired $50 billion Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which Washington continues to firmly oppose. So far, EU members Britain, France, Germany and Italy have said they want to be founding members of the AIIB. But other Europeans will undoubtedly join their ranks. The story is not just about Washington vs Beijing; it’s about a changing world order, the shift of power from west to east, the rise of China and its challenge to years of US...

Two new Publications launched by CRSS

From Jihad to Al-Qaeda to Islamic State "From Jihad to al-Qaeda to Islamic State” provides a telling account of the evolution of the continuously changing face of Islamist militancy and terrorism. That is stoking large swathes of land across the globe. Led and edited by Imtiaz Gul, (author of The Most Dangerous Place) this is a journey through the militant landscape – stretching from the far east in western China to Indonesia to Somalia and Yemen in Africa - that actually had begun with the emergence of the anti-Soviet Afghan jihad of the 1980s and has now morphed into brutal terrorism epitomized by the Islamic State. Pakistan: Pivot for Hizbut Tahrir’s Global Caliphate? The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS)  takes pride in introducing “Pakistan Pivot for Hizbut Tahrir’s Global Caliphate?”  This path-breaking book  draws on the Hizb’s literature – press releases, manifesto, banners -  to explore the goals and activities of this transnational Islamist political party, with particular reference to its activities in, and the mandate for, Pakistan. Having established its offices in over 40 countries, Hizbut Tahrir baptized its presence in Pakistan in 1999, a year after Pakistan became the first Muslim nuclear power. In the context of Pakistan, the study of Hizbut Tahrir's motives assumes unusual significance due to the ongoing security crisis flowing from the consequences of the war on terror. The stated objectives of the organization also underline the real-political convergence between the HuT and other trans-nationalist organizations such as al-Qaeda.      

A matter of trust

The attacks on two churches in the Youhanabad area of Lahore, and the public lynching of two people the crowd deemed suspects highlights several alarming facts. These intersect, coalesce and amalgamate to create a highly volatile and unpredictable atmosphere which then self-perpetuates, relentlessly continuing the cycle. Step one in this cycle is the failure of the state and its institutions. If this was a singular failure, a tumor that could be treated or excised, it would be a different story. But this is a systemic problem, one that has permeated every aspect of state functions and institutions. First and foremost, the state is completely unable to protect its citizens. The most basic and fundamental tenant of the social contract is that citizens give up certain rights in exchange for certain freedoms, principal among them the right to live and work peacefully. Citizens of today’s Pakistan, especially minorities, are under siege from a faction of the extremist strain that pollutes our collective national ideology and washes our streets in the blood of the innocent. Since the enactment of the National Action plan (NAP), in the wake of the atrocious attack on schoolchildren in Peshawar, minorities have been especially vulnerable against attacks. The enemy is already well-aware that the state response will be meek at best, so minorities remain easy fodder for their quest for relevancy. The state’s response has been immediate condemnation, public avowing to avenge the fallen, and then quietly waiting for the next catastrophe, to repeat these tried and tested tactics. Our politicians, our law enforcement agencies, and even our judiciary, are unable to protect our citizens and provide speedy justice. This breeds distrust, and inculcates a sense of abandonment and helplessness. Step two of this cycle stems from the massive trust deficit in the citizens, once again, especially minorities. The public faith in state institutions, especially those that are responsible for...

A stern warning

The senseless lynching of two terror suspects in Lahore, manhandling of policemen, and the destruction of infrastructure that followed the twin suicide bomb attack on two nearby churches in Lahore reflects the pent-up frustration that most Pakistani citizens reel from. The only difference between these acts and similar acts by the Islamic State is that the latter executes and burns its captives in a premeditated manner. What happened in Lahore was a violent, headless reaction to the terrorist attacks. It was a shameful and outrageous episode nevertheless. All government institutions knew trouble was brewing, but we saw the rampage continue as if it had happened on the spur of the moment. The hair-raising two-day-long carnage led by the aggrieved Christians simply exposed the political inertia, absence of vision and deficient institutional capacity to preempt such incidents. At the same time, this delivers a stern warning to our rulers. Surrounded by unbearably large security escorts and huge walls, most of the VIPs feel protected and insulated from criminals and terrorists. This incident should be a wake-up call for the self-serving political leadership. Where were the people’s representatives – members of the provincial and the federal assemblies elected from those areas? Where was the civil administration? In the end, it was para-military forces who quelled the unrest. During a press conference on March 16, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan said he had returned 35 Rangers troops who had been tasked to protect him, implying that they had been escorting his predecessor Rehman Malik too. His comments on the crucial files missing from the ministry, and the role of police and ministry officials in helping two convicts who had been extradited from the UK escape were equally stunning, and only underscored the decay and corruption that exists within our state institutions. Instead of bringing criminals to justice or preventing them from violating the law,...

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: a complete economic package and strengthening people to people relationship

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is not just a one highway or road; it is rather a comprehensive package of cooperative initiatives and projects, which covers various fields including Gwadar port, energy, transportation and infrastructure, finance, agriculture and tourism. These projects would prove helpful for the achievement of the goal of improving the livelihood of Pakistani people. The consensus on CPEC was reached in a meeting between Pakistan leaders and Chinese premier Li Keqiang in May 2013. The economic corridor starts from Kashgar, Xinjiang in the western China and runs throughout the whole of Pakistan finally reaching Gwadar port in the south. For overseeing the project China and Pakistan have established the Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) on the Long-term planning of CPEC, and set up three working groups of energy, transportation infrastructure and comprehensive planning. The JCC after three meetings have reached initial consensus on the planning and construction of the Economic Corridor. The partnership dialogue last year with Pakistan in November brought the formation of Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). 26 countries are its funding members. Its initial investment is 60 billion USD reaching the mark of 100 billion USD. This is a step to new financial dominance. A Silk Road Fund is also established which would provide 40 billion USD. Pakistan would be hugely benefited from this Silk Road Fund. The CPEC is not only vital for the social development of China but also for Pakistan. And the cooperation with Pakistan on CPEC is not exclusive but inclusive. Anything which connects Pakistan and China is part of the CPEC.[1] The Chinese themes are peace and development, the growth of trade between Pakistan and China is faster than that of China and United States. The bilateral trade between China and US is 550 billion USD with 7.9% of growth; the American economic growth is dependent on China, while China’s trade with India is worth 60...

IN DEFENCE OF PAKISTAN

9/11 has forever distorted the perspective of the West towards Muslims worldwide. Robert Fisk's article in The Independent from March 8, 2015 is proof, and this is the rebuttal. Have pen, will write - whenever a western or Indian journalist finds himself short of material or ideas there is always Pakistan. 'Being Coy Doesn’t Change the Reality of Modern Pakistan — a Corrupt, Politically Savage, and Physically Broken Society', by Robert Fisk in The Independent of 8th March is a case in point. It matters little how much they may know, let aside understand about the country. The picture they paint is almost invariably dark and depressing. Facts and figures are mostly cherry-picked and misquoted to serve their purpose. To quote Dr. Paul Joseph Goebbels, Hitler's Minister of Propaganda, 'If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it people will eventually come to believe it.' Sadly, there is much truth in the statement and this is exactly what is being done to Pakistan. The reasons for it are not difficult to imagine, given the prevailing geo-political environment. To understand a country, apart from everything else, one has to really know the ethos of its people. This is not always easy for someone who is not a part of the culture. The inability to understand often leads to poor judgement and miscalculation even where the intentions are not dubious. It is not unusual to fall victim to one's own propaganda. A joint US National Intelligence Council and CIA report released in 2000 predicted: “by year 2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation” (The Times of India, 13th February, 2005). Well, 2015 is here but the dire prediction is still nowhere on the horizon. Nonetheless the misconceptions about Pakistan created through misinformation have become deeply embedded in the public mind. There is conceptual and practical confusion that some...

Pakistan, China and the economic corridor

The friendship between Pakistan and China is the story of two countries with contrasting approaches to life. The former is socio-politically fractious and suffers from religio-political violence. It ruled by a self-serving ruling elite with huge issues of integrity and little empathy towards people at large.  The elite substitute fundamental principles of the rule of law with brazen political expedience and abuse of political power that they draw from poor voters. The Chinese leadership, in contrast, does not directly represent the people i.e., it does not gain power through elections. However, all across China we see a singular focus on the citizens’ welfare and internal stability — objectives achieved through long-term policies that are enforced and protected. This is what sustains China and has placed it on top of the world map: relentless pursuit of objectives with commitment and clarity. The same applies to the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor (PCEC) that Beijing wants to pursue despite all topographical odds and political roadblocks such as turmoil in Balochistan and the crisis of insecurity in other parts of the country. The logic is simple: the proposed route, conceived over a decade ago, will serve both western China and help Pakistan too. The expansion of the Karakoram Highway and the involvement in the construction of Gwadar were also part of this economic vision, which have got a new push under President Xi Jinping. Beijing’s focus and commitment to the PCEC is also manifest in the recent visit to Islamabad of a high profile Chinese expert group on long-term planning of the PCEC. Led by Hu Dongsheng, deputy director general of the China Development Bank, the 19-member group held extensive discussions on the project. Both sides emphasised the need to speed up the process of drafting the PCEC long-term plan, which includes not only roads but a lot of social infrastructure in Balochistan and other areas aligned with the corridor. If realised, the PCEC...

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TESTIMONIALS

I am also a member of National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Information and Broadcasting. Recently, we held a meeting with the Director General of Radio Pakistan and we told them to initiate such local programs (like Constituency Hour) in regional languages to educate and inform people. Even Indian Radio can be heard in FATA which is being used for propaganda purposes and must be closed. Therefore, we should launch some standard and quality programs like CRSS that will change the taste of the listeners.

Soniya Shams

Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Women University, Peshawar