Third CICA Think Tank Roundtable Chairman’s Statement on Asian Security Developments and Further Think Tank Cooperation The Third CICA Think Tank Roundtable was convened at Hongqiao State Guest Hotel in Shanghai on May 11-12, 2015 sponsored by the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS). The fact that this Roundtable was held in the context of this year’s marking the 60th Anniversary of the Bandung Conference and the 70thAnniversary of the World War II adds more significance to this Roundtable. Present at the Third Roundtable were 35 participants from Afghanistan, China, Iran, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Thailand and Turkey. Ms. Xing Fangfang, the Chinese Senior Official to the CICA, delivered a keynote speech and praised the worthy contribution to the CICA by this Roundtable series. Besides, Singaporean and Thai Consulates-General in Shanghai also sent their observers to participate the discussion. The Third Roundtable reviewed the Asian security developments since the convening of the CICA Shanghai Summit in May 2014. Generally speaking, there were three opinions in evaluating the past year at the Third Roundtable. The optimistic held that there was no imminent danger of irruption of massive wars, that the awareness of regional security and political willingness were on the rise, and that there saw some positive signs in the China-U.S. relations, management of maritime disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea and the improving situation in Afghanistan. The pessimistic pointed out that the dual structure of security and economic divergence is solidifying, that the most worrisome is the deepening strategic distrust between China and the United States, that the Ukraine crisis casts negative impacts onto the West-Russia relations and even the Central Asian economies, and that the Cold War mentality still affects the security thinking and actions in the region. And as always, there was a third school in between the...

Two former senior Pakistan military officials told AFP on Tuesday that a ‘defector’ from country’s intelligence agency did assist the US in its hunt for Osama bin Laden but denied the two countries had officially worked together. The officials' accounts came after the publication of a controversial news report by US journalist Seymour Hersh in which he claimed to have uncovered a ‘secret deal’ between Washington and Islamabad that reportedly resulted in the killing of Al-Qaeda chief in 2011. The White House has flatly rejected Hersh's claims that Pakistan was told in advance about the May 2 special forces raid in Abbottabad. A source — who was a serving senior military official at the time of the raid — told AFP that the defector was a “resourceful and energetic” mid-ranking intelligence officer whose efforts were critical to the operation's success. Know more: Pakistani officials reject claims of ISI handling bin Laden Hersh's report quoted a senior US source as saying a “walk-in” approached the then-Islamabad station chief for the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in 2010 promising to lead them to bin Laden, who according to the journalist had been imprisoned by Pakistani authorities at the Abbottabad compound since 2006. However, the Pakistani military source told AFP the defector had no knowledge that his target was bin Laden, but he was instead given a task that would help verify the Al-Qaeda chief's identity. The source declined to elaborate on what that task was, but a Pakistani investigation found that the CIA had run a fake vaccination programme with the help of physician Dr Shakeel Afridi who obtained DNA samples. Qazi Khalilullah, Pakistan's foreign ministry spokesman, meanwhile said the government was investigating Hersh's account and would announce its reaction soon. “We are looking into the matter and will give our reaction soon,” he said. Verification task On the defector's role, the source said: “This guy was inducted at a much later stage...

The following is a presentation given by the Center's Executive Director, Mr. Imtiaz Gul, at the third CICA Think Tank Roundtable on Asian security cooperation, their issues, concepts and institutions. The presentation was given on May 11, 2015, in Shanghai, China. Updating Concepts of Asian Security Since this morning, we have heard exciting views on geo-politics, the diminishing stature of the United States, One Belt One Road and the need for a collaborative world order that allows free flow of people and goods across the globe – as envisioned by the Chinese President Xi Jinping. Let me begin with a quote from the US President Obama’s speech at a three day summit at the State Department on violent extremism, in February 2015. He accepted two bitter realities: First, he said, “There is no one profile of a violent extremist or terrorist... It’s not unique to one group or to one geography or one period of time... but we are here at this summit because of the urgent threat from groups like al-Qaeda and ISIL,” he said, using a term to refer to the Islamic State. Second, “Engagement with communities can’t be a cover for surveillance. It can’t securitize our relationship with Muslim Americans, dealing with them solely through the prism of law enforcement,” he said as the audience applauded in response. This was an admission by the US, that it had used international non-governmental organizations to gather intelligence in our countries. In fact last year, the State Department made a public commitment that the CIA would not use international development agencies as intelligence cover any more. Why did they have to say this? Because Muslim majority territories from western China to Central / South Asia to the Arabian Peninsula and Africa – Xinjiang, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Egypt Libya, Syria, Algeria, Nigeria, Yemen, Sudan –  today face one or the other form of violent conflict driven by regional or national religio-political groups. Al-Qaeda Arabian Peninsula, Al-Qaeda...

Pakistan is gradually coming out of a cold war era mindset. A lot of analysis on the current day Pakistan, particularly by American, Indian and Afghan commentators, continues to be rooted in the past. Much of the argument is a one-way ostracization of Pakistan based on the baggage which is undeniable but which cannot and should not be used to judge a constantly evolving situation. Such analysis, while embracing their respective countries’ geopolitical alignments as “unavoidable necessity,” blatantly ignores the compulsions that geopolitics place on Pakistan. Let us dissect some of the factors that require a closer and sympathetic scrutiny by foreign commentators, most of whom would project anything relating to Pakistan as “linear and black and white,” disregarding the fact that geo-politics is mostly gray and is non-linear because of the competing political and commercial interests of nations. Commentators, firstly, need to note the difference between September 19, 2001, when General Pervez Musharraf simply announced to join the US-led anti-terror war, and March 2015, when Nawaz Sharif had to back-peddle on his commitment of all-out support to Saudi Arabia. Although financially and politically indebted, Pakistan seems to have weathered the storm. Geo-politics is mostly gray and non-linear Secondly, commentators misleadingly project Pakistan as the only big roadblock to reconciliation as well as an “unreasonable opponent” to the overland transit trade rights for India, without explaining the Pakistani reservations about it. They point to the Afghan president Ashraf Ghani’s frustration with Pakistan too. During his recent India visit, Ghani warned Islamabad (according to The Hindu newspaper) that if it does not open the Wagah land transit for Afghan imports from India, his country could take counter measures. “We will not provide equal transit access to Central Asia [for Pakistani trucks],” he said. Ghani said it was a question of “sovereign equality”, and Pakistan...

The Al-Qaeda core  operating from tribal areas of Pakistan is keen to compete with its splinter, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ISIL) at all levels. To match the magnitude and ferocity of ISIS terrorist attacks, Al-Qaeda operatives in Pakistan even attempted to hijack a Pakistan Navy frigate PNS Zulfiqar in September 2014[1]. Just one week before that failed incident the then Al-Qaeda Emir Ayman al-Zawahiri announced the establishment of Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, led by Asim Umar a veteran jihadi on September 4, 2014 in a 55-minute video[2]. Since Al-Qaeda wants to spread the tentacles of its Pakistani franchise in the Indian Subcontinent, the most recent Al-Qaeda endeavour in this regard is the launching of its women wing: Al-Qaeda Shaheen (falcon) Force. According to the statement this force would be led by Afinda Bint-e-Ayesha under the tutelage of Umaima Hassan Ahmed Muhammad Hassan[3], wife of Ayman al-Zawahiri[4]. Mrs Zawahiri has remained instrumental alongside her husband, the chief of Al-Qaeda, in mobilizing jihadi women. Time and again she has urged Muslim women to raise children for jihad. While addressing jihadi women inspiring them to participate in active jihad at a web-based jihadi forum, she said: “I advise you to raise your children in the cult of jihad and martyrdom and to instil in them a love for religion and death. Each woman would raise her child to be a new Saladin by telling him that it is you who will restore the grandeur of the Islamic nation and you will liberate Jerusalem.”[5] The newly created Shaheen Force appears to work under Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and has plans to train 500 female suicide bombers for striking civil and military installations in Pakistan[6]. The Shaheen Force seems to be just another Al-Qaeda effort to compete with the growing influence of ISIS in Pakistan’s jihadi circles. Scores of jihadi leaders from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have defected to ISIS. The ISIS has...